2022 Mock Draft: What Will Actually Happen

Earlier today I ran through what would happen with the draft if I was in charge of every selection. Today I’m going to tell you what will actually happen. In the past I’ve gotten as many as seven of these thirty-two selections correct, so feel free to bet your life savings on everything written below.

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia

I guess I’m buying into the hype of the past week here, because I’m going with Walker as the first overall selection. He’s maybe the best athlete in the entire draft, and he does enough well on the field that I doubt he’s going to turn into the next Vernon Gholston or Barkevious Mingo. Whether he’ll live up to this pick, well that’s a different story. 

2. Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

With Walker going first, this makes things really easy for Detroit. They jump all over the local prospect, who fills an immediate need for their defense and brings the kind of intensity Dan Campbell has built his entire identity around. Hutchinson may not be a star, but he’s the most sure thing of the pass rushers in this class.

3. Houston Texans – Ikem Ekwonu, OT/OG, NC State

This is where things get really interesting. I can envision any of five different players going here, but I’ll end up going with Ekwonu, who seems like the most universally beloved of the remaining players. I don’t see it myself, but right now he’s the best bet to be the first offensive lineman off the board.

4. New York Jets – Derek Stingley, CB, LSU

This is another wide open pick. Ahmad Gardner has been building steam here lately, but it also sounds like there’s been a push for Stingley as the first cornerback off the board. It’s been kind of a journey, but him slotting in as a top five pick would be a nice full-circle moment after the past couple years.

5. New York Giants – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

No prospect has been dissected more harshly this year than Thibodeaux, but at this point it seems like most people have gotten past whatever complaints they had about him and expect him to go in the top five. The Giants haven’t had a premiere pass rusher for several years, so right now they’re just sitting on their hands hoping there isn’t some crazy run at the top.

6. Carolina Panthers – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

Carolina has spent a ton of time scouting quarterbacks this offseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one go off the board here. But I think at this point they’ll decide that passing up on an elite offensive tackle prospect for a mediocre quarterback would be a bad call. Neal should go off the board higher than this, so if it’s possible for someone to be a steal at number six, this is it. 

7. New York Giants – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

The Giants addressed the most pressing need on their defense with their first pick, and they stick on that side of the ball with their second. As badly as I’m sure Brian Daboll wants to add talent to his offense, Gardner is a much better value than any wide receiver or offensive lineman at this point.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

The Falcons feel wide open here as well. They could use pretty much any position, and this is a quiet possibility for the first quarterback off the board as well. But I’d bet on receiver above any other position, and I have a feeling Wilson will be the first receiver off the board as teams fall in love with what he can do with the ball in his hands. 

9. Seattle Seahawks – Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

Seattle always does bizarre things on draft night, and it was kind of nice last year when they didn’t have a first-round pick to spend. This year I have to try to predict them though, so I guess this is a fine place to put the first quarterback. I really don’t like Ridder as a prospect, but he seems to be gaining steam recently, and while crawling into the top ten would be a big surprise, I expect him to go somewhere in the first round.

10. New York Jets – Drake London, WR, USC

The Jets went defense with their first pick, and now they give some help to Zach Wilson. It might be tempting to go with one of the burners in Jameson Williams or Chris Olave to stretch the field with Wilson’s arm, but I think they’ll recognize that London is simply a better player. And putting this massive catch radius on the field will certainly help a quarterback who has some struggles with accuracy.

11. Washington Commanders – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Concerns about the upcoming extension for Terry McLaurin may force Washington’s hand here. They have nothing else at the receiver position, and if they lose McLaurin they’ll have basically nothing in their passing game. Even if they are able to keep him, Williams will be a good complement as a downfield threat opposite the technician McLaurin.

12. Minnesota Vikings – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

Ten years ago the Vikings spent a first-round pick on Harrison Smith, and as he nears the end of a Hall of Fame worthy career they could have a chance to take another very good safety out of Notre Dame. Hamilton isn’t a replacement for Smith—stylistically he’s actually a pretty much perfect complement to what Smith does—but he’ll be a piece to build around as they try to get younger on defense.

13. Houston Texans – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State

Houston may have considered taking Johnson at number three, and in my mock draft it just so happens that he’s available at when they come up again. Once again Houston’s barren roster means they can take pretty much any position they want. Johnson could go a lot higher than this, so he’d provide good value with this selection.

14. Baltimore Ravens – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

Baltimore’s pass defense was abysmal last season. A lot of this was due to injuries, but they still could use additional depth at the back end. McDuffie doesn’t have the physical tools of the top two cornerbacks, but he’d be a perfect fit to start his career in the slot.

15. Philadelphia Eagles – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

Cine isn’t a player I broke down as part of my pre-draft preview, but he’s been gaining a lot of steam and I could see him sneaking up even higher than people expect. Cine was very productive as the leader of the Georgia secondary, and he tested well enough at the Combine to suggest he has even more in him.

16. New Orleans Saints – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

The Saints traded to get an extra first-round pick this year reportedly because they really like this offensive tackle class. If Cross ends up falling to them at sixteen, that would be a dream come true. He is a top-five worthy player, a fantastic athlete who is already a proven pass protector and only needs to clean up a few things in the running game to be a Pro Bowl caliber left tackle.

17. Los Angeles Chargers – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

This is a fit that has made a lot of sense for a while. The Chargers were brutally bad against the run last year, partially due to talent but also partially due to scheme. Brandon Staley plays a lot of light boxes, which means his defensive linemen need to be able to handle multiple blockers to avoid being blown back in the running game. No one in this class is better at absorbing multiple blockers than Davis, a one-of-a-kind combination of size and athleticism.

18. Philadelphia Eagles – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

The Eagles have spent first-round picks on wide receivers each of the past two years, but with Jalen Reagor looking like a bust it’s still a position of need. Having a second first-round selection gives them the opportunity to address it. It might make sense to grab a bigger body like Treylon Burks to go across from Devonta Smith, but I think he’ll end up sliding down the board as teams go for higher ceiling options.

19. New Orleans Saints – Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

Gordon is a name that could go a lot higher than people expect, or end up deep in the second round. He’s not nearly as polished as his teammate McDuffie, and he didn’t test as well as people expected. But he’s a lanky player who looks very athletic on the field, and he’d be a good piece for the Saints to develop on their defense.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

The Steelers are one of the worst teams about disguising their draft intentions, and it’s been well-known that they love Willis for several months now. If he drops outside of the top ten I think the Steelers will leap up to grab him. In this mock draft where I’m not projecting trades, he still ends up there for them to take at number twenty.

21. New England Patriots – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

Lloyd feels like the linebackers the Patriots have churned out over the past decade. He’s big, he’s fast, and he can do a lot of things. I wasn’t super impressed by the pass-rushing reps he had at Utah, but the experience certainly doesn’t hurt for a defense that loves bringing its linebackers from unexpected places.

22. Green Bay Packers – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

Aaron Rodgers has been begging for a receiver for years, but he won’t be too disappointed to have a little more protection in front of him. Putting Penning in at right tackle would allow them to have more flexibility with Elgton Jenkins elsewhere on the line, either as a guard or as the replacement for David Bakhtiari if he never makes it back to full strength. And with another selection a little farther down the board, the Packers can still go out and find a wide receiver.

23. Arizona Cardinals – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

Arizona has spent their last two first-round picks on linebackers, but both have struggled handling blockers coming downhill at them. Wyatt would give them some protection along the front, and he has the potential to develop into an occasionally effective pass-rusher. There are some off-field concerns that could drop him out of the first round, but it only takes one team willing to take a chance on him.

24. Dallas Cowboys – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

If Jerry Jones loves two things, they’re wide receivers and the University of Arkansas. And with Amari Cooper now in Cleveland, he’ll jump all over the opportunity to add the talented receiver from his alma mater. Burks and CeeDee Lamb do a lot of the same stuff, but it’s all good stuff to have, so there will be no problem putting them on the field together in Dallas. 

25. Buffalo Bills – Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

I don’t think we’re going to make it through a first round without a running back taken. Not with Hall having put up such an impressive performance at the Combine, and not with so many teams feeling like they need just one more piece to get over the hump. A running back isn’t a great long-term investment, but in terms of immediate impact he can give a real boost to a Bills offense that got a bit too one-dimensional last year.

26. Tennessee Titans – Kenyon Green, OG/OT, Texas A&M

I’m not the biggest fan of Green, but I think he still has some supporters in the NFL, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he climbs into the back end of the first round. He played multiple spots on the line at Texas A&M but was at his best when playing guard, where he will most likely find himself in the NFL. Tennessee’s offensive line has quietly fallen to pieces over the past few years, and this could help them get back to where they were.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

The Buccaneers got a gift when Tom Brady decided to unretire, but unfortunately Ali Marpet isn’t going to do the same. And with Alex Cappa now in Cleveland, that leaves two big holes right in front of their Hall of Fame passer. If Johnson is sitting here for them, they’d be making a huge mistake not to make him their selection. He’ll be able to contribute to this line right away, and in a couple years he could be every bit as good as the two players they just lost.

28. Green Bay Packers – George Pickens, WR, Georgia

Rodgers finally gets his wish. Pickens missed most of his final college season, but he has the athletic profile of a player who should go much higher than this. He’s big, he’s fast, and he plays with a lot of attitude. There are real concerns about his lack of production, but he could also be a steal at this point.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

Karlaftis could go a lot higher than this, or he could go a lot lower. NFL teams have a habit of falling in love with edge rushers who win primarily through power, but it doesn’t always pan out. Karlaftis could be an exception to this however. He has a little more burst than some like him have had in the past, and even if his ceiling is a little bit limited, he is probably worth selecting here.

30. Kansas City Chiefs – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

Having traded Tyreek Hill away, most people expect Kansas City to grab a receiver with one of these two picks. I don’t think that’s necessarily a sure thing. They need help on defense as well, and Andy Reid has never invested a ton in the receiver position. But I’ll put Dotson here anyway. He probably isn’t the best fit for the Hill role as a downfield threat, but he can handle some of the underneath responsibilities with the ball in his hands while other receivers stretch the field.

31. Cincinnati Bengals – Daxton Hill, S/CB, Michigan

At this point I’m kind of just trying to squeeze in players I think will make it into the first round. Nakobe Dean and Logan Hall feel like a couple of big omissions, but I think I’d rather leave them out than Hill. It will be interesting to see where Hill ends up in the NFL, whether he sticks as a nickel cornerback like he was at Michigan or becomes a more traditional safety. But his athleticism is off the charts, and he should be able to adapt to whatever role he’s given.

32. Detroit Lions – Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

I’m putting this in here because I have a feeling another quarterback is going to go before the night is done, and my gut is telling me Corral is the guy. He’ll have some work to do to transition to an NFL offense, but he’s the sort of intense leader that you want to build a young team around. And with Hutchinson getting most of the attention as the local product, it may make it easier to bring Corral along slowly.