After a very eventful start to the offseason, we’ve finally made it to draft week. Which means it’s time for my two annual mock drafts, starting today with what would happen if I was put in charge of every selection.
This is the weakest draft class I’ve ever scouted. Of the prospects I looked at I only graded 21 as being worth a first-round selection, and now I have to go through and spend 32 first-round picks. The end result is that basically every player is going to go higher than they really deserve to go, both in this draft and in the one that’s actually going to happen tomorrow night.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Neal is maybe the one exception to what I said above. He is truly an elite offensive line prospect, with just about everything you could want in the position. He’s massive, physical, and athletic, with enough technique to slide right into a starting role. I know the Jaguars franchised Cam Robinson, but I doubt he’ll be back again a year from now, so locking down Trevor Lawrence’s blindside is still a must.
2. Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
Hutchinson probably won’t live up to the level produced by former second overall selections like Chase Young, Nick Bosa, and Von Miller. But he’s the best combination of player and need available at this point, and he’ll fit well with what Dan Campbell is trying to build in Detroit.
3. Houston Texans – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Houston is in the unenviable position of not having to worry about need because they need everything. So even though they have Laremy Tunsil on the left side, they still need something to help their offensive line. Cross likely needs more work than Neal, but he has everything needed to be a high-level tackle in two or three years.
4. New York Jets – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
I’d like to give Zach Wilson some help, but the Jets have another pick slightly farther down the first round, and wide receiver is a deeper position than cornerback. So I snag Gardner, an elite man cornerback who will give the Jets something to work with on the back end of their defense for the first time in almost a decade.
5. New York Giants – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
Thibodeaux is a very good athlete who will likely develop into a top-notch edge rusher. He brings a lot of potential versatility to the table, and it will be fascinating to see how he ends up being used in the NFL.
6. Carolina Panthers – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
It’s hard not to go quarterback here, but it would be malpractice to put any of the quarterbacks from this year’s class behind Carolina’s offensive line. And since there are no linemen worth taking at this point, I suppose I’ll just have to add to a defense already drenched in talent. Hamilton is one of the smartest players in this draft, and sliding in as the signal-caller at the back end of Carolina’s defense would be the perfect situation for him.
7. New York Giants – Drake London, WR, USC
The Giants paid a ton of money to Kenny Golladay last year and spent a first-round selection on Kadarius Toney, but right now it’s possible neither is in their future plans. I’ve still pretty much given up on Daniel Jones, but regardless of who is New York’s quarterback of the future, they are going to benefit from the massive body of London on the outside.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Derek Stingley, CB, LSU
Atlanta already has one excellent young cornerback in AJ Terrell, but it’s never a bad thing to have a second. Stingley is phenomenally talented, and I think once he’s in the NFL he’ll look more like his freshman year performance than the struggles he’s had over the past two years.
9. Seattle Seahawks – Carson Strong, QB, Nevada
I’m still a little queasy about the offensive line here, but at least it’s better than Carolina’s. Strong’s ability to stretch the field would be a perfect pairing with the vertical threats Seattle has on the outside, and it would give them a chance to finally start fresh after watching their Super Bowl roster slowly crumble for the past five years.
10. New York Jets – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
This is what I meant about the receivers. Burks doesn’t have the star potential of London, but he’s ready to contribute right away for an offense that needs to get something working. His skillset is maybe a little redundant with Corey Brown, but the Jets will have plenty of time to figure those things out before they’re ready to start competing.
11. Washington Commanders – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
I don’t love this fit, but Williams is the most talented option available, and Washington desperately needs some wide receiver help. The only thing they have going on the outside is Terry McLaurin, and there are real questions about whether they’ll be able to resign him after this season. Williams may take some time to come along, but this offense isn’t going anywhere in a hurry to start with.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
With the top two cornerbacks off the board, the Vikings have to reach for a very skilled, but somewhat physically limited, third option. McDuffie may end up in the slot which will limit his value, but if so he’ll be one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league.
13. Houston Texans – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
The Texans address the offensive front with their first pick, and now it’s time for the defense. Johnson came on strong his last year in college, and while there may be some concerns about his age, the production speaks for itself. The defensive line is quietly the one not-terrible part of Houston’s roster, and adding Johnson to it could elevate them to decent in a hurry.
14. Baltimore Ravens – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Baltimore hasn’t had a real threat off the edge for several years now, and they’ve still managed to generate pressure through well-designed and well-coached schemes. Walker won’t give them instantaneous speed off the edge, but he can develop that in a year or two, and for now he can elevate their already dangerous blitz and stunt packages.
15. Philadelphia Eagles – Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
Booth has some pretty glaring flaws, but he’s athletic enough and skilled enough to at least be a functional starting cornerback. And without a lot of better options at their disposal, Philadelphia will be happy to get that.
16. New Orleans Saints – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
The salary cap finally caught up with New Orleans this year, and they were forced to let Terron Armstead walk in free agency. Penning has some rough patches that will prevent him from contributing immediately, but he’s a similar elite athlete to Armstead, who the Saints developed into one of the best tackles in the NFL.
17. Los Angeles Chargers – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Justin Herbert has one of the best arms in the NFL, but his top two receivers both are at their best working in tight spaces. He needs someone with the speed to keep up with the deep balls he launches, and Olave certainly has that. Dropping him in as a deep threat in this offense would be almost unfair, and a couple years down the road he can be the perfect replacement for the aging Keenan Allen.
18. Philadelphia Eagles – Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College
Philadelphia was at their best a few years ago when their offensive line was the best in the league. A couple of those pieces remain, but they aren’t getting any younger, and tossing Johnson on the inside will only help keep Jalen Hurts out of trouble.
19. New Orleans Saints – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
The Saints are running things back with Jameis Winston, who wasn’t all that bad before his knee injury last year. It’s especially notable because he had no one to throw the ball to. It’s still unclear when or if Michael Thomas will be back, but even if he is a weapon like Wilson in the slot would be a major help to this offense.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Willis is a gamble, and he’s probably not the right choice if the Steelers continue to believe they’re ready to contribute immediately. But Pittsburgh is probably the best destination for him, a team with a stable coaching situation and a solid foundation of talent on offense to build around him.
21. New England Patriots – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
I said there were 21 players I had a first-round grade on, and this is the last of them. Karlaftis is a talented player who wins in kind of a unique way, which means I could see him struggling if asked to play in most defensive systems. But no coach in NFL history is better at utilizing unique players than Bill Belichick, so this would be a perfect match of player and destination.
22. Green Bay Packers – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
As funny as it would be to let another year go by without the Packers spending a first-round pick on a wide receiver, I have to give them Dotson here. I’m higher on this receiver class than most people seem to be, which means the top five options are all off the board by now. The Packers will have to settle for Dotson, a receiver with a lot of skill who is just somewhat limited by his physical abilities.
23. Arizona Cardinals – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
This is where things get challenging. With all the first-round caliber players off the board, the Cardinals grab the best physical talent left. I’m not sure exactly what role Davis will play in the NFL, but simply getting someone with his size and athleticism is a start. The rest can be figured out from there.
24. Dallas Cowboys – Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
Another case of simply grabbing the best player left on the board. The Cowboys hit gold with Micah Parsons last year, so linebacker probably isn’t their biggest need. But Parsons and Dean can play beside each other, and with Dean holding the middle down in coverage they’ll have more flexibility to let Parsons do what he does best, which is rush the passer.
25. Buffalo Bills – Daxton Hill, S/CB, Michigan
Buffalo has built a dangerous team over the past few years, but it still feels a little fragile to me. Their offense goes as far as Josh Allen can take them, and their defense leans heavily on a pair of talented safeties who are both getting up there in years. Tossing Hill in as a nickel defender will give their defense a burst of youth and athleticism, and give them someone to develop to ease the transition for their defense as Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde move on.
26. Tennessee Titans – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Tennessee’s defense took a big step forward last year, but that was primarily due to the terror provided by their defensive line. There are still some holes in their secondary, and while the raw Elam won’t plug those holes right away, he’ll give them something to work with there.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Logan Hall, DE/DT, Houston
Tampa Bay still has a very deep roster, so they have the luxury to take a flyer on someone who might just be a situational player. I’m not sure that Hall can hold up against the run, but he has the tools to be a dominant pass rusher, coming in to spell Vita Vea and wreak havoc with his power on the interior.
28. Green Bay Packers – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
The Packers went years without competent linebacker play, and we saw the difference it could make in 2021 with De’Vondre Campbell stepping in at a high level. They signed him to an extension after his All Pro season, but he is turning 29 in a couple months, and he has never performed at that level before. They’d be much better if they could get another big, athletic linebacker to possibly fill that role.
29. Kansas City Chiefs – Boye Mafe, EDGE, Minnesota
30. Kansas City Chiefs – DeMarvin Leal, DE/DT, Texas A&MA pair of selections on the defensive front for Kansas City. With the best wide receivers gone, they need to just grab the top two defensive players left on the board. Mafe brings speed as a rotational pass rusher on the edge, while Leal gives them more versatility on the interior to keep opposing offensive lines from burying Chris Jones.
31. Cincinnati Bengals – Kenyon Green, OG/OT, Texas A&M
Cincinnati invested a ton of money in their offensive line in free agency, but another body wouldn’t hurt. Green has experience playing both guard and tackle, and will likely start his career as a swing option filling in any injuries for a team that can’t afford any hiccups.
32. Detroit Lions – Bailey Zappe, QB, Western Kentucky
Yes, Zappe is probably just a younger version of Jared Goff, but he’s also a whole lot cheaper, and even for a team that isn’t particularly cap-crunched, having a middling quarterback on a rookie deal rather than a middling quarterback on a veteran extension is a huge difference. Maybe there will be problems in a few years when the Lions have to decide whether to give Zappe an extension of his own, but for the next few years any basic competence would be a huge bargain.
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