2022 First Round Recap

We just wrapped up another exciting first round, one that started very by-the-numbers and then went a bit off the rails halfway through. As always there were some good picks and some baffling picks. I’ll go into more depth tomorrow, but here were my thoughts on every first-round selection.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia

After an entire offseason where it seemed like Aidan Hutchinson was destined to go first overall, it became apparent over the past few days that the Jaguars preferred Walker. There’s no denying his traits, with numbers at the Combine that are well worth the top overall selection. And he has impressive tools on the field, especially when he uses his long arms to overwhelm opposing linemen with physicality. The real concern is that we haven’t seen him win off the edge, which is what you typically want an edge rusher to do. Maybe he’ll develop the burst and speed to match his tools, or maybe the Jaguars will find a way to make him productive in a more unique role. But that feels like a lot of maybes for the first player to be selected, and I think it’s pretty clear this was a reach.

2. Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

Hutchinson is a more reasonable selection here. He wasn’t my favorite player on the board at this point, but he’s probably the best fit for what the Lions need at this spot. There are some weird holes in his game, but enough strengths that I feel confident he’ll be a very productive pass rusher in the NFL, even if he falls short of being one of the best in the league.

3. Houston Texans – Derek Stingley, CB, LSU

This was a mild surprise, but not too out there. Ahmad Gardner is a better cornerback, with tools to match Stingley’s and much more consistent production in college. But it’s hard not to look back at the six interceptions Stingley had as a freshman and see a player with a rare ability to flip a game around. He’s a good athlete with one-of-a-kind ball skills who might have some downs at the next level, but will produce highs to make up for them.

4. New York Jets – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Gardner is the best cornerback in the draft and well worth this selection. He is huge and physical, and he has very good movement skills for his size as well. Scouting him was actually a challenge because teams didn’t even bother going his way, which is admittedly a good problem for a cornerback to have. I think he could reach that level in the NFL in just a couple years.

5. New York Giants – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

It’s a bit of a running joke in this blog that I hate the Giants pick every year, but for once I actually feel pretty good about this. Thibodeaux is the best pass rusher left on the board, and probably has a higher ceiling than either of the players selected ahead of him. I think the Giants probably could have gotten him if they had waited for their second selection though. Carolina is almost certainly going to take an offensive lineman, and if the Giants wanted that same position they should probably have jumped all over Evan Neal here rather than risk losing him.

6. Carolina Panthers – Ikem Ekwonu, OT/OG, NC State

Of course, that is expecting Carolina to do the smart thing, which is definitely a question at this point. Offensive line is certainly a position of need, but they passed up on the best player in the draft to take a much lesser player at the same position. Ekwonu is touted as a powerful run blocker with athleticism to develop into an elite pass protector. Except that I’d much rather have an elite pass protector to start, and I don’t really see the athleticism everyone else seems to. I knew he was going to go in the top ten, and I knew it would be my least-favorite selection of the first round when it happened. Just so happens that Carolina is the team to make that mistake.

7. New York Giants – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

And everything works out for the Giants, the early winners of the draft. Sitting at picks 5 and 7, they got my number 1 and number 4 ranked players. With Andrew Thomas showing improvement last year, Neal gives them two potentially elite bookends on their offensive line, setting this unit up to be one of the best in the league in a few short years.

8. Atlanta Falcons – Drake London, WR, USC

I expected the Falcons to go with a wide receiver, and I was pleasantly surprised that they took the best one available. London is massive and excels at going outside his frame to make sensational catches. But he is much more versatile than that, with good route-running ability and exceptional skill running with the ball in his hands. Putting him on the same field as Kyle Pitts almost feels unfair.

9. Seattle Seahawks – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

I’m so used to Seattle making bizarre choices with their first-round selections that I’m not sure how to talk about them making an excellent decision. Cross should have gone about five picks higher than this, and he’ll give the Seahawks exactly what they need to lock down their offensive line for whatever is coming next for this offense.

10. New York Jets – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

Wilson isn’t the best receiver available at this point, but he is the most fun. He’ll get pushed around some when he tries to run routes, but if you can get the ball in his hands he can turn any play into an explosive one. He has the speed to run away from people and the best moves in space of any player in the class. Not sure he’s the best fit for this Jets offense, but he’ll at least make them entertaining.

11. New Orleans Saints – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

The first trade of the night is the Saints jumping up to continue the run on wide receivers. Olave continues New Orleans’s trend of loving Ohio State players, and gives the Saints the best deep threat in this draft. He’s basically the exact player I would plug into an offense with Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas, and even though I had a couple other receivers rated higher, I can’t say I hate this selection.

12. Detroit Lions – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Wilson, Olave, and Williams were teammates just a year ago, and now they are back-to-back-to-back in the draft. Williams has some mild concerns coming off of a knee injury, but he was the best receiver in college football a year ago. He has the speed of Olave and the quickness of Wilson, and if he can continue the upward trajectory he ended his college career on he can be a true superstar in the NFL.

13. Philadelphia Eagles – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

This is an interesting choice. I get that Fletcher Cox is getting up there in years, but Davis isn’t really a replacement for Cox. He’s more of a pure nose tackle, which the Eagles already have in Javon Hargrave who is coming off of a sensational season. I suppose the athleticism of Davis makes him the sort of player who could blossom into a star in a couple years. But if I’m using a pick in the top half of the first round on a defensive lineman, I’d like him to have actual pass rushing ability, rather than just the potential to develop it.

14. Baltimore Ravens – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

This is pretty much perfect. The Ravens get one of the most productive players in college football, and he’ll plug easily into the back end of their defense. Hamilton doesn’t have the freakish athleticism of most top players, but he makes up for it with football intelligence and special anticipation. He’s only going to get better with the coaching he is going to get in Baltimore, and this is probably the safest first-round pick to predict as a success.

15. Houston Texans – Kenyon Green, OG/OT, Texas A&M

This is the first real baffling selection of the night. You don’t spend a top fifteen pick on a guard unless he is a truly special prospect, and Green isn’t even the best guard prospect in this class. He’s a poor athlete, and the best that will come out of him will be an anonymous starter at a low-premium position. Houston needs offensive line help, but there were multiple better options to go with here.

16. Washington Commanders – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

I don’t love this pick. A wide receiver opposite Terry McLaurin has been a need in Washington for years now, and it’s a good fit for Dotson going somewhere where he won’t have to be the number one guy. But Dotson has some clear limitations, and even though Washington probably did a smart thing adding a couple picks by sliding down five spots, I’m not sure those picks are enough to account for the difference between Dotson and Olave or Williams.

17. Los Angeles Chargers – Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

This is still pretty high for a guard, but at least the Chargers chose the correct guard. Johnson is a fantastic athlete who can physically overwhelm people in the running game, and he has room to grow into one of the best in the league. Adding Rashawn Slater last year brought some stability to the Chargers offensive line, but it still was a weakness as a whole. Once they get Johnson integrated, it could quickly become a strength, at which point there won’t be much to slow down this offense.

18. Tennessee Titans – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

The wide receiver position is in the midst of a bit of a reckoning. It’s clear that wide receivers have never been more valuable than they are now, but also there is more talent at the receiver position than ever before. This has led to some teams throwing huge contracts at proven receivers, while others are happy to part ways figuring they can find a younger, cheaper option in the draft. Will Burks be as good as AJ Brown? Almost certainly not. Will he plus $90 million dollars provide more value? That’s a trickier question.

19. New Orleans Saints – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

I had this pairing in one of my mock drafts, and it still makes a lot of sense here. Penning is a phenomenal athlete who mostly got by on his physical ability in the lower levels he played at, but he has enough technique to build on as he slides in as a starter in the NFL. The Saints built Terron Armstead from a raw athlete into one of the best tackles in the NFL, then watched him walk away in free agency. They’ll have a chance to do something similar with Penning to replace him.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

I did not expect this, and I do not like it. Pickett has decent enough physical tools, but he’s wildly inconsistent, old, and does not have the composure to operate an NFL offense. The best you can say about him is that he’s mostly ready to transition into an NFL scheme, but putting him behind this Steelers offensive line will be a disaster. I don’t see much upside as a starter for Pickett, and I don’t think he provides enough immediate value to make the Steelers actually competitive in the AFC.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

This is a really good pick by the Chiefs. They jump up from the end of the first round to snag the third-best cornerback in the draft, a player who can contribute as an immediate starter for a defense that needs some sign of life. McDuffie is a bit on the small side and not super athletic, which limits his upside some years down the road. But the Chiefs will happily take that at this point in the draft.

22. Green Bay Packers – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

This is the first pick of the night that I haven’t studied. I’ll get back to you tomorrow. But it’s worth mentioning that I don’t think anyone watched Georgia’s defense last year and said, “Quay Walker is a better player than Nakobe Dean.”

23. Buffalo Bills – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

This was a bit of a surprise as the next cornerback to go off the board, but I’m not shocked someone fell in love with Elam. He has tons of tools and never really seemed to put things together at Florida, which isn’t surprising considering the coaching he had to deal with there. He’s a big cornerback who is a bit stiff at times, but Buffalo can work with that as they look for a second cornerback opposite Tre’Davious White.

24. Dallas Cowboys – Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa

I have only watched one game of Smith so far, and it was the worst game of any lineman I studied this year. But maybe he’ll grow on me with a bit more study.

25. Baltimore Ravens – Tyler Linderbaum, OC, Iowa

As much as I liked Baltimore’s first selection, I dislike this one just as much. Linderbaum will certainly have value in their running game, and there are all sorts of fun things they can do with him and Lamar Jackson. But he’ll also get blown back into Jackson’s lap on a regular basis, which, as I’ve seen with Garrett Bradbury over the past few years, is enough to totally sink an offense.

26. New York Jets – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State

Some people had Johnson going to the Jets with their very first selection, and while that would have been a reach, this is clearly incredibly good value here. The red flags for Johnson are that he’s a bit on the old side and doesn’t have a long history of productivity. But in his one year at Florida State he showed off flashes of pass rush ability to go along with strength against the run. He’s a good player to have on your defense, and a solid value at the end of the first round.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

The Jaguars let Myles Jack walk this offseason, so they felt the need to grab his replacement here. I don’t love Lloyd as a prospect, mostly due to how he struggles handling blockers coming at him. I’m even more concerned by Jacksonville’s apparent indifference to helping their young quarterback. I could kind of understand them passing on an offensive tackle for a pass rusher at the top, but there were things they could have done to help Trevor Lawrence with their second pick, and the fact that they didn’t is a bad look.

28. Green Bay Packers – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

Hahaha the Packers still refuse to spend a first-round pick on a wide receiver. Never mind that all the receivers worth taking in the first round went before they had a chance to take them, it’s still kind of funny. I’m not the biggest fan of Wyatt either. He has more versatility than most of the other defensive tackles on the board, and he has the athletic ability to develop into a good player. But he’s already 24 years old, he has off-field concerns, and this isn’t a position of great need for the Packers.

29. New England Patriots – Cole Strange, OG, Chattanooga

This is a name that came completely out of nowhere. I never saw Strange even remotely connected to the first round. I’ll have to watch tape and get back to you, if I can find any tape of Chattanooga.

30. Kansas City Chiefs – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

Another very good pick for Kansas City. Karlaftis doesn’t fit the traditional mold of an edge rusher, a little too big and too stiff, but the power he brings to the table is a very rare trait. He may have some trouble adjusting to bigger and stronger NFL linemen, and he’s a gaping liability in the running game right now. But I think he has enough tools to work with to develop into a very good starter in a couple years for a Chiefs team that can use basically whatever they can get their hands on on defense.

31. Cincinnati Bengals – Daxton Hill, S/CB, Michigan

Hill will be a fun project for the defensive coaching staff in Cincinnati.  He mostly played slot cornerback in college, and he could end up there in the NFL, even though the Bengals already have a pretty good option in Mike Hilton. Or he could end up at safety next to Jessie Bates, giving them a lot of flexibility to play different schemes on the back end. I’m not sold on him as a player right now, but he tested phenomenally well and can grow into a more reliable player.

32. Minnesota Vikings – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

Okay I need to get this out of the way first: I hate the trade that Minnesota made to end up in this position. When I first saw that they had slid backwards twenty spots in the first round, I assumed there was a future first-round pick involved. I was apparently way, way too optimistic. Not only did they not get a first-round pick in return, they didn’t get a second-round pick either. They slid twenty spots worse in the first round, jumped twelve spots better in the second, and added an early-third. I understand this was a year without a lot of demand to move up, and I understand that by some draft value charts this trade came out about even. But at a certain point you have to acknowledge what the market has decided, and the market has decided that the Vikings got fleeced.

That out of the way, let’s briefly touch on Cine. He wasn’t a player I broke down as part of my pre-draft reports, but I did watch one game of him last night after hearing it was likely he would end up in the first round. He is a heat-seeking missile on the field, and I already feel good saying he’ll be a valuable addition in run-support. I still have mixed impressions about him in coverage, but I’ll watch more tape and let you know tomorrow.