What is a wide receiver worth?
I mentioned this briefly in my recap last night, but I think it deserves a longer look here. Because the wide receiver position is in a fascinating place in the NFL right now, and no one can really seem to agree on what it’s worth. We saw the results of this in the middle of the draft last night, as a run on receiver selections coincided with a pair of veteran trades to turn the entire draft on its head.
A couple months ago I wrote a piece on the importance of wide receivers. At that point only four teams were left alive in the postseason, and the one unifying thread I saw among those four was the presence of an elite receiver. As the passing game has taken on more and more value in the NFL, the presence of someone who can reliably win on the outside is almost a necessity for an offense to be effective, and the best teams in the league all had someone they could count on to do that.
What I kind of skimmed over at the time is that these four teams are far from unique in that way. The wide receiver position right now is incredibly deep, and about half the league has someone who would probably belong in that elite category. The past few years of the draft have only strengthened the position in the league, as we’ve seen players like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Devonta Smith enter the league and hit the ground running. And while this year didn’t necessarily have the same top-end talent, wide receiver was one of the few positions with quality depth in an otherwise weak class.
Right now wide receivers are more valuable than ever, and also easier to find than ever. This has led to some very interesting moves across the NFL, as some teams are willing to pay a premium at the position while others are content to let proven superstars walk away.
This isn’t an entirely new trend, as the best example of this is probably two years old when the Vikings dealt Stefon Diggs away and used the pick they received to select Jefferson. This is a rare trade that seems to have worked out great for everyone—the Vikings, the Bills, Diggs, Jefferson—and this success seems to have emboldened other teams to take similar leaps.
The wide receiver tumult of this offseason really started with Christian Kirk. A former second-round pick by Arizona, Kirk has had a fairly anonymous career so far, with his best season coming this past year when he put up 77 catches for 982 yards once the Cardinals started using him more out of the slot. But nothing he’s done suggests he’ll ever enter that “elite” category I mentioned above, which is why it was such a shock when the Jaguars gave him $72 million over four years.
Some of that money is contractual voodoo, but it is still far more than Kirk has proven he’s worth. And with many of the best receivers in the league a year or two away from free agency, their agents suddenly started making extraordinary demands for extensions. On the one hand, the market has determined that receivers are now the second-highest paid position in football, and the results on the field back this value up as well. On the other hand, there are a ton of younger, cheaper receivers available in the draft for anyone to claim.
The market for wide receivers opened up, and it hasn’t closed anytime recently. The biggest moves were obviously when the Packers dealt Davante Adams to the Raiders and the Chiefs sent Tyreek Hill to Miami. These were two All Pro receivers, proven among the very best in the game, on teams with Super Bowl aspirations this year, who decided that there was more value to be gained from draft picks than from handing them $100 million extensions. And on the other side, two middle of the pack teams in Las Vegas and Miami decided that a proven wide receiver was an essential piece to help get them over the top, and were willing to pay a premium in both draft picks and cap space to acquire one.
Not long after these moves were made, the next wave of wide receivers began agitating for big-money extensions. The Panthers quickly got a deal done with DJ Moore, but several other teams suddenly found themselves in precarious positions. Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, and DK Metcalf aren’t as proven as Adams and Hill, but they are all younger and still have the primes of their careers ahead of them, which has all of them suddenly eyeing nine-figure extensions.
For the past few weeks every eye has been on Samuel, but Brown was actually the big dominos to fall last night, and the most explicit example of the pattern I’m describing. The Titans dealt him to Philadelphia, who immediately gave him the $100 million he was looking for. And the Titans didn’t waste time replacing him either, using the pick they acquired to select Treylon Burks, another big, physical wide receiver who excels once you get the ball in his hands.
Brown is a phenomenal player who has really only been limited by injuries to this point in his career. Expecting any draft pick to live up to that is probably a bit too much to hope for, and I don’t think a pure one-for-one swap of Brown for Burks would make sense to anyone. But Burks is going to cost about $20 million a year less than Brown over the next four seasons. That is $20 million that can be used to extend a young star like Jeffrey Simmons, or go out in free agency and add another player or two. Burks doesn’t have to be Brown. He just has to be a good number one receiver, and the Titans will be happy with this trade.
But does that mean Philadelphia will regret it? I’m not so sure. In the example I gave before Diggs has partnered with Josh Allen to push the Bills offense to new heights, and left them in position to compete in the AFC two straight years. If the Eagles really believe in Jalen Hurts, the NFC appears wide open for the taking over the next couple years. Partnering Brown with Smith could give them the best one-two punch of receivers in the league over the next couple years, and if they have a good quarterback option (I’m still not sold) this offense will be able to keep up in any shootout.
Burks wasn’t the only receiver to be acquired by a team that traded for the draft selection last night. After the first seven selections went without a receiver, two were taken in the next three when Atlanta chose Drake London and the Jets grabbed Garrett Wilson. And suddenly the wide receiver run was on. New Orleans felt the position was valuable enough to jump up five spots to select Chris Olave, while Detroit was willing to jump twenty places to choose Jameson Williams. Normally quarterback is the position you see teams leaping up to take rather than holding their ground in the hope he falls to them, but last night was the story of the receivers.
I should probably also mention the other wide receiver traded, even though it doesn’t fit the pattern discussed above. Marquise Brown hasn’t shown anything approaching elite ability in his three seasons in the league, yet Arizona was still willing to hand over their first-round selection to acquire him. This feels like a massive overpay, but more than any other team the Cardinals seem committed to spending a ton on wide receivers. They traded for DeAndre Hopkins and then drafted three receivers that same year. They’ve spent recent second-round picks on Kirk, Andy Isabella, and Rondale Moore. And now they gave up a first-round pick for a receiver who only barely eclipsed 1000 yards for the first time in his career a year ago.
This brings us to the other factor in investing in a wide receiver: keeping the quarterback happy. While I’m sure every quarterback appreciates having a solid defense or a reliable offensive line, the affection they have for their wide receivers is clearly different than for any other position. Deshaun Watson’s dissatisfaction in Houston started when they dealt away Hopkins. Aaron Rodgers has been agitating for years for the Packers to invest more in the position. And last night the trade of Brown showed both sides of this, as Lamar Jackson sent out frustrated tweets about losing his top option while many pointed to Brown’s experience playing with Kyler Murray in college as a reason why this made sense. The past couple years have shown the power quarterbacks have to force their way out of a situation they don’t like, and giving them a good wide receiver seems to be the most reliable way to make them feel better about their situation.
So what is the long-term solution to all of this? Right now there seems to be a wide gulf in how teams value receivers, which is leading to so much tumult at the position. Huge contracts are being handed out, big draft moves are taking place, and the next wave of rumors are already starting.
There will be an equilibrium found, but it will likely take a couple years, and it won’t be pleasant for everyone. The deals made for Adams and Hill seem to be the two potential albatrosses. Both players are in their late-twenties, and receivers can go downhill incredibly quickly as their athleticism leaves them. It’s likely that one or both of them will be massive salary cap sinks in a couple years, while the players who were drafted with the picks sent to acquire them will be emerging as young stars. This will make outside teams more wary to pay big packages for receivers, and give the leverage back to the home teams when negotiating extensions with their stars. But that is likely still a few years down the road, and until then McLaurin, Samuel, Metcalf, Jefferson, and Lamb appear poised to cash in on the sudden chaos at the position.
Best players remaining
This was a weak class, and I didn’t go as deep into my scouting process as I typically do. But there are still a few good players left on the board who should go in a hurry tonight once the second round gets under way.
Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
Booth was considered a mid-first-round pick early in the process, but he slid down in part due to a string of injuries that kept him from displaying his athleticism in the pre-draft process. But he’s a very skilled and capable cornerback, and he should be a solid starter for the next few years. I think he’s a solid value early in the second round, and I don’t expect him to last very long.
Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
Five players from Georgia’s defense went in the first round last night, yet you could make an argument the best player from that defense wasn’t among them. Dean is an excellent athlete who flies all over the field, but he is a bit on the small side and isn’t the best at playing through contact or making reliable tackles. I still think he should have gone in the first round, because he’s a very smart player who is phenomenal in coverage, and I don’t doubt that both of those abilities will translate to the NFL in a couple of years.
Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M
No running backs went in the first round last night, which meant that every team was thinking clearly. But I expect a couple to go in the second round, likely Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker. Spiller is my favorite back in the class though, mostly due to the versatility he provides as both a receiver and a pass protector. He may wind up sliding into the third or fourth round, at which point he will be an incredible bargain.
Boye Mafe, EDGE, Minnesota
Mafe is a bit one-dimensional, which is why teams steered clear of him in the first round. But he is an explosive athlete who can come screaming off the edge in a hurry, and players like that will always have a place in the NFL.
Logan Hall, DT, Houston
I’m a little surprised that Hall didn’t end up in the first round. He’s the sort of player it’s easy to imagine a team falling in love with. He is a massive, gifted athlete who is still working on transitioning from defensive end to defensive tackle, but in the meantime he has the skills to be an effective situational pass rusher. His strength is something special, and I don’t think we’ll have to wait long before we see him blasting offensive guards back into quarterbacks’ laps.
Carson Strong, QB, Nevada
Malik Willis, QB, LibertyOnly one quarterback went last night, and he probably shouldn’t have. (I’ll have more to say on that below.) But it seems likely a couple will go in the second round. Strong will not be one of them, but he’s my favorite in the class, a strong-armed passer with a good feel for the pocket who is only somewhat limited by his lack of mobility. Willis is the one some team will gamble on though, a special athlete with a powerful arm who is still figuring out how to use it. I think he may be better in the long-term being selected in the second round, though his destination will play a big role in the player he becomes.
Additional Scouting Reports
22. Green Bay Packers – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
Let’s start by saying, I’m not sure how someone could watch the Georgia defense and decide they’d rather have Walker than Dean. But that doesn’t mean Walker is a bad player or a prospect. He’s probably a second-round value the Packers got right at the point where first-round players were starting to be hard to find, which means he was only a slight reach. I feel pretty good he’ll turn into a quality starter, and I think he has some upside that he hasn’t fully achieved yet.
Walker has good size for a linebacker and tested incredibly well, even if his speed on the field doesn’t reflect those numbers. He’s more of a between the tackles force than someone who covers ground from sideline to sideline. He’s at his best in congested areas where he can engage physically and shed blockers to make his way to the hole. He doesn’t get caught up in traffic very often, and when he does he’s usually good at playing through the contact to at least take up as much space as possible.
At Georgia Walker wasn’t an every-down player. He came off the field a lot in passing situations, and he wasn’t given a lot of coverage responsibilities. He rarely dropped into zones, and in a lot of situations was simply asked to charge downhill off the snap. He’s a very good blitzer, timing things well and hitting the line at full speed at the snap. His ability to play through contact works to his advantage here too, as he can bounce off of attempted cut blocks and still get pressure on the quarterback.
His usage at Georgia makes projecting him a bit of a challenge. Because he was asked to blitz so much, I didn’t see many snaps where he was asked to read and react. He looked decent when he was, but more often the Bulldogs used him as a wrecking-ball while his teammate Dean handled the cerebral role.
Similarly in the passing game, Walker was asked to do very little in coverage. He looked a little awkward in zones, but actually decent in man coverage. Though his approach to man coverage was often just to engage physically, at the edge of simply grabbing the guy he was supposed to cover. It worked behind a defensive front that got to the quarterback fast enough that these receivers rarely had time to disengage. I worry about how this will translate to the NFL, where rules about physicality are stricter and receivers are better at breaking away. It’s possible he has untapped potential here. It’s also possible he’ll never be more than a liability in the passing game, and spend most of his career coming off the field at the most important moments.
24. Dallas Cowboys – Tyler Smith, OT/OG, Tulsa
I was pretty harsh on this selection when it was made last night, having watched one game of Smith where I was very unimpressed. After watching another two games, I think that was probably a little too strong. He’s still the worst offensive lineman I studied this year and certainly shouldn’t have been a first-round pick. But I think there might be something to build on here, even if it’s going to take some time and effort to turn him into a worthy NFL starter.
Smith is a powerful athlete with above average movement ability that lets him make some very impressive plays. When he gets into good position on his drop and makes solid contact with the pass rusher, he can completely erase a defender from the play and at times bury him into the ground. He doesn’t often get moved backwards, and in the running game he plays with phenomenal leverage that can lead to dominating downhill blocks. He’s fairly light on his feet and can change direction in a hurry, meaning it’s tough to beat him just by crossing his face and darting to the inside.
That’s what happens when everything is working perfectly, but it doesn’t work out this way often enough to matter. Smith really struggles with speed rushes around the edge, as he simply doesn’t drop deep enough or fast enough to cut them off. At that point he’s left relying on his upper-body strength to engage and cut them off, which he’s pretty good at, to a point. Defenders can’t force their way through his arms, but they can get outside his frame and draw the attention of officials.
This brings me to the other notable thing about Smith. He is always holding. He plays with his hands extremely wide, and tends to grab defenders up around their shoulders rather than in their chests. This leaves him vulnerable to long-arm techniques that can stagger him backwards and ruin everything I said before about holding his ground and reacting to the inside. It also means that he draws flags at a rate I’ve never seen before from a prospect I studied. He drew two holding flags in each of the three games I watched, and he could have been called for a lot more.
So what does the future path for Smith look like? He’s a good athlete, and if he rebuilds his pass-blocking technique from scratch he might be able to become an above-average tackle. But I’d much rather take the safer route and just put him at guard. Keep him from playing too much in space where he’s threatened by speed-rushers, and let him work in a tighter window where his physical strength can be overwhelming and his attempts to bear-hug a defender are less noticeable. I think he could be a top-level NFL guard in a couple of years, provided he cleans up his hand technique.
29. New England Patriots – Cole Strange, OG, Chattanooga
Strange was a selection that came out of nowhere, and while it was clearly a reach by the Patriots, I don’t totally hate it after watching a couple games of him on film. He is a very clean guard prospect, with athletic testing that suggests he may have more to him than he’s shown so far. It isn’t the most exciting pick, but it isn’t terrible for something at the end of the first round.
Strange is very good at playing with leverage. He stays balanced with his hips low over his feet, and he strikes aggressively with his hands into a defender’s chest. Unlike Smith his hand position is nearly flawless, and he isn’t going to be vulnerable to a lot of penalties. With this positioning it is hard to move him back as a pass rusher, and hard to stop him from sealing the play off against the run.
Strange moves well as an athlete, even if he doesn’t show anything spectacular when doing so. He’s capable of pulling from the backside as a lead blocker, and he takes really good angles to the second level in the running game. At times he can fire out a little too aggressively and let defensive linemen swim over top of him, but otherwise he is a relatively clean and polished player who should be able to start right away.
The big question I have with Strange is what his ceiling is. Because despite playing against a lower level of competition, he never looked as freakishly dominant as you would expect from a first-round guard prospect. He doesn’t drive people backwards, and he doesn’t finish defenders into the ground. His testing numbers suggest that he has untapped potential, and that maybe he was holding himself back to avoid going over the top in college. But I’m not sure I see much on tape to suggest he can be an All Pro guard, which is what you’re looking for whenever you spend a first-round pick on that position.
32. Minnesota Vikings – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Cine is a fun player to watch. He has rare speed for a safety, running a 4.37 in the forty and looking every bit that fast on the field. There are times where it seems hard to believe he got in on the tackle with where he started the play, and it is impressive how much he stands out on a Georgia defense where everyone is freakishly gifted athletically. And when he arrives, he does his best to absolutely erase people from plays, the hardest hitter of anyone I looked at this year.
Cine is an excellent defender coming down in run support, and he has some impressive skills in pass defense as well. He is inconsistent in man coverage, sometimes meeting receivers aggressively at the line and using his agility to match their every step, and sometimes being knocked completely off-balance by their routes. He could develop more in this area, but I think he’s at his best in a deep zone where he can sit back and react to what’s in front of him. He can react forward to a route across his face while still being in position to swing backwards and cover stuff behind him, a rare trait for a safety. At times he needs better awareness of routes coming from zones outside his area, but for the most part he is a smart defender who does a good job anticipating where the receiver is heading.
One real concern I have with him is his physical stature. He is under 200 pounds, very small for a safety, and he’s going to need to add weight to be reliable in the NFL. Even when he delivers powerful hits on ball carriers, he can still sometimes be carried a couple extra yards before he is able to ride them down. And he has some occasional struggles at the catch point, where bigger and stronger receivers can go over top of him and his only recourse is to try to drape himself over their arms to keep them from reaching the ball.
Cine has the potential to develop into a do-it-all safety, and while I don’t think he is quite at the level of Kyle Hamilton, I think the difference is smaller than the picks the Vikings acquired to slide down. Cine is absolutely a first-round talent and probably should have gone about ten selections higher than he did. Early in his career he’ll have some rough patches, but in a couple years he has the ability to be one of the best safeties in the league.
Awards
Best Selection – Kyle Hamilton, S, Baltimore Ravens
I understand concerns about Hamilton’s athleticism, but he fell farther than he should have and landed in the perfect situation. Baltimore has already done work to revitalize their secondary this offseason, and getting a player like Hamilton to put next to Marcus Williams gives them one of the best safety duos in the game. Hamilton is an incredibly smart player with great size and ball skills, and he’ll be an eraser on the top of Baltimore’s pass defense for years to come.
Honorable mentions: Evan Neal, OT, New York Giants; Trent McDuffie, CB, Kansas City Chiefs;
Worst Selection – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh has been linked to quarterbacks throughout this entire process, and when the first nineteen picks came and went, they had their choice of all the prospects available. I’m not sure how they came to the conclusion that Pickett is the best of them. He has moments of high-level play, but his physical tools are just okay, and he’s already fairly far along his development curve. He has some pretty clear flaws when it comes to handling pressure and managing the pocket, and even if he cleans that up I still don’t see him being more than just a fine quarterback. Even if everything works out in the best possible way for Pickett, he still won’t reach the highs already hit by Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Joe Burrow. And if the best-case scenario is having the worst quarterback in the division, it probably isn’t worth a first-round pick.
Honorable mentions: Ikem Ekwonu, OT/OG, Carolina Panthers; Kenyon Green, OT/OG, Houston Texans; Travon Walker, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
No offensive lineman is going to win this award, so that rules out about half of the offensive players chosen last night. And since I’ve already made my thoughts on Pickett clear, if I’m sticking with first-round picks that means choosing a wide receiver. Olave isn’t the best receiver who was selected, but he’s immediately NFL ready and headed to the best situation of any of them. Jameis Winston has his flaws, but putting up volume passing stats has never been among them. Olave’s combination of deep speed and route-running technical skill will give him the opportunity to put up some big numbers and be the most impactful rookie receiver.
Honorable mentions: Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons; Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, New York Giants
Thibodeaux has the potential to develop into one of the best edge rushers in the league, but he’s also the edge rusher in the best position to have an immediate impact. He joins a Giants defense that already has some solid players at multiple positions, and just needs someone who can come screaming off the edge. That is what Thibodeaux does best, and I don’t think ten sacks in his rookie season is out of the question.
Player I’m Most Likely to be Wrong About: Tyler Linderbaum, OC, Baltimore Ravens
It’s possible I’ve spent too much time watching Garrett Bradbury to be objective about this one. I see one glaring flaw with Linderbaum, in his weakness against physical power in the pass rush game. But he does a lot of other things extraordinarily well, and if he can cover up this weakness, either by getting stronger or by working within a well-designed scheme, he could turn out to be a genuine difference-maker for Baltimore. There’s no denying the value his mobility will add to the running game, much as Bradbury has added to Minnesota’s. It’s just a matter of whether he can hold up against the powerful defenders he’ll face in the NFL.
Honorable mentions: Travon Walker, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars; Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
