The AFC North has three of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL, and also Ben Roethlisberger. They have a pair of elite defenses, and also the teams from Ohio. They have three teams hoping to leap into the playoffs this year, and also a team that will be disappointed with anything short of a Super Bowl title.
Baltimore Ravens
Best Case Scenario
We saw the best case scenario from Baltimore a year ago. They threw out an offense the league had no answer for, as Lamar Jackson ran and threw his way to MVP. The retirement of Marshal Yanda will be a tough blow to absorb, but otherwise they are returning most of the important pieces of this unit. Hopefully they will get more from Marquise Brown after a somewhat productive but also injury-plagued rookie season. If he can provide a consistent threat down the field, this offense can be even better than it was a year ago.
Baltimore lost several pieces from their defensive front prior to 2019, and they reorganized their defense around a lockdown secondary. That secondary lost Earl Thomas, but they still go three deep with quality cornerbacks in Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Jimmy Smith. And they bolstered their front again, with veterans Calais Campbell and Pernell McPhee as well as athletic rookie Patrick Queen. The Chiefs are still the favorite in the AFC, but the Ravens are the only team at this point that really deserves to be in the conversation with them.
Worst Case Scenario
There are arguments we can make for why Baltimore could stumble this year. Their offensive system was innovative a year ago, but defensive coordinators have had an entire offseason to figure out how to attack it. The Ravens won’t have quite as much of a schematic advantage this year, so they are going to have to win more on talent alone. And after a quarterback has a breakout MVP campaign, it’s always worth worrying that natural regression will drag on him the following year, as it did for Cam Newton in 2016 and Matt Ryan in 2017 (and even to some extent Patrick Mahomes in 2019).
Those could all play a role, and I could see them piling up to cause the Ravens to slide a little bit. But really the only way I can see them missing the playoffs is if Jackson gets injured, which is the same risk every team runs. Maybe his style makes him more vulnerable to injuries, but so far he hasn’t had any issues, and his agility means he takes very few hits head-on. He will be fine, and the Ravens will be more than fine.
Player to Watch – Orlando Brown, OT
Brown is an interesting story. Even by the standard of NFL offensive linemen he is massive, measuring 6-8 and 345 at the Combine. But the Combine was also partially his undoing, as he absolutely bombed every single athletic test to the point that it looked like he didn’t belong on an NFL field. His tape was of a potential first round pick, but the Ravens were able to get him in the third round.
So far his career has lived up to the hype of his college production. He is a bulldozer in the running game who walls off an entire side of the field to open lanes for Baltimore’s dangerous rushing attack. He is helped in the passing game by having Ronnie Stanley on the other side, which allows Baltimore to shift its protection schemes towards Brown to cover for his limited mobility. He was also helped a lot by the presence of the Hall of Famer Yanda beside him. With his retirement, more pressure will be placed on Brown this year. A weakening of the line is the only thing that could really sink Baltimore’s offense, and even though I don’t think it is going to happen, Brown is currently positioned to play a pivotal role in their offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Best Case Scenario
The recipe for the Steelers to jump into Super Bowl contention is simple. A year ago they had a dominant defense and nearly managed to claw their way into the playoffs despite bouncing between Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at quarterback. They didn’t score more than 26 points in a single game all season, and they still ended up winning eight. And now they will be getting Ben Roethlisberger back, which will provide some life for their offense.
The defense feasted on takeaways a year ago, and even if those numbers don’t recur, they are still set up to be an elite unit. TJ Watt blossomed into one of the best players in the league a year ago, and he’s still only 25 years old. They are getting Stephon Tuitt back from injury to bolster their defensive line, and Devin Bush and Minkah Fitzpatrick should be only more dynamic in their second seasons in the system. Even if they slip somewhat, bounceback years from Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and James Conner should have them on their way to a playoff spot.
Worst Case Scenario
Do we have any idea what we’re going to get from Roethlisberger? He’s 38 years old, he’s taken an incredible beating over the course of his career, and he’s less than a year removed from destroying his throwing arm. We’ve gotten used to seeing quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Drew Brees play forever, but both of them have very different styles from Roethlisberger, less dependent on their raw physical ability. Roethlisberger’s last few seasons have been defined by inconsistency, as in games where his team falls behind he has a tendency to take overly aggressive risks. If he no longer has the arm strength to pull off some of his spectacular throws, will he still try to force the ball into untenable situations?
The Steelers have made quite a few good draft picks in recent years that have revitalized their roster, but age is still an issue at several key points. Cam Heyward, Joe Haden, and Maurkice Pouncey are all 31, and they all play positions where Pittsburgh doesn’t have much depth. These players were still playing at a high level just a year ago, so there’s no reason to write them off yet. But a sudden drop-off from key veterans is the only thing I worry about that could cause the Steelers to fall short of their results from a year ago.
Player to Watch – Diontae Johnson, WR
Pittsburgh was forced to part ways with Antonio Brown a year ago, and their receiving corps suffered mightily because of it. After a stellar first couple years in the league, Smith-Schuster struggled to create separation with the full focus of defenses on him. James Washington hasn’t developed into the deep threat they hoped, and they drafted a potential replacement in the second round this year in the big, athletic Chase Claypool, who has reportedly looked good in camp but is still likely a ways away from being real contributor.
The spark of hope is their second-year player Johnson. Drafted in the third round with the pick they got in exchange for Brown, he had an inconsistent rookie season that was mostly ignored as several other receivers had much better debuts. But he showed flashes of ability on a team without a quarterback, and he looks ready to break out with Roethlisberger throwing the ball now. He has electric agility, and he puts that on display with excellent route running skills for a young receiver. He’s obviously no replacement for Brown and never will be, but he has the look of another mid-round find for the Steelers at the receiver position.
Cincinnati Bengals
Best Case Scenario
The last time we saw Joe Burrow on a football field, he was capping off the best season any quarterback has ever had at any level while also establishing himself as the best quarterback prospect in almost a decade. Expectations are high in Cincinnati, but he has the ability to match, and the situation he finds himself in isn’t completely hopeless. He has a pretty good top pair of receivers in AJ Green and Tyler Boyd, plus rookie Tee Higgins. He has one of the most underappreciated running backs in the league in Joe Mixon. And he has a talented left tackle in Jonah Williams who is reportedly looking good in practice after missing his entire rookie season.
What’s the upside of all of this? A fun, explosive offense that can win a handful of games and set the Bengals up with something to build on in 2021. Because the defensive side of the ball is still ugly, and even Burrow is likely to have some rough patches as he transitions to a new offense and a new level of competition. The AFC is still shaky in the middle, so the playoffs are within reach. But I still think they’re a ways away from being able to compete for the division.
Worst Case Scenario
The entire future of this franchise is now pinned on Burrow. His final year in college was incredible, but it was also very different from his performance before. There are plenty of possible explanations—a new offensive scheme, better talent around him, growth as a player—but we won’t really know until we see him on the field. If he comes out and struggles through the season, suddenly his performance in 2019 will be the clear outlier and will raise questions about the long-term future of the team.
Plenty went wrong for the Bengals last year that resulted in them getting the first overall selection, and they did the right thing by not casting Zac Taylor aside after one year on the job. But for someone without the normal depth of experience you typically see from a head coach, the way they fell apart down the stretch is certainly worrying. They didn’t do much to improve their defense this offseason, and the moves they made—adding cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander—are already looking shaky (Waynes is out for the year and Alexander was just arrested). I doubt they’ll wind up picking at the top of the draft again next year, but this is still a team loaded with questionmarks at some of the most important places in the organization.
Player to Watch – Joe Mixon, RB
I mentioned Mixon above, but his name is worth bringing up again, because he has the potential to emerge as a real superstar this season. He very quietly put together back-to-back 1000 yard seasons on teams that went absolutely nowhere. If the Bengals start to win, the spotlight is going to turn straight onto his performance as what will surely be a key part of their offense.
2017 has already established itself as a great running back draft class—Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones (lol the Jaguars used a top five pick on Leonard Fournette this year)—but Mixon was the most talented of the bunch coming out. He fell to the second round because of an off-the-field incident from his time in college, and it was probably good for him that he ended up in a situation without much attention on him. He’s established himself as a top ten NFL running back, and he’s kept out of trouble away from the game.
There are some health concerns with him right now. He’s having some issues with migraines that have caused missed practices, and it sounds like the communication between him and the team has not been great. The Bengals need to hope this gets sorted out over the next couple weeks. Because right now Mixon is the best player on their team, and they are going to need all the help they can get for their rookie quarterback.
Cleveland Browns
Best Case Scenario
2019 was supposed to be the year Cleveland finally broke its losing streak, but that turned out to be a total dud. They’re back now, with a new coach and pretty much the same everything else. They added a pair of offensive tackles this offseason in free agent Jack Conklin and first round pick Jedrick Wills, hopefully shoring up an offensive line that was a mess a year ago. Their young secondary will have another year under its belt, and they’ll be getting Myles Garrett back after a suspension cost him the final six games of last year.
Once again though, it mostly comes back to Baker Mayfield. The flashes we’ve seen from him have been special, but a year ago they were few and far between. His playmaking mindset looked great in 2018 on a team with limited talent and no real chance of competing, but last year he still seemed unwilling to trust his teammates to do their jobs. Rookie coach Kevin Stefanski will have to figure out how to rein him in while not stifling the moments that make him special. If he can pull that off, this team has the potential for the same leap everyone expected a year ago.
Worst Case Scenario
The best moments from Mayfield have been breathtaking, and when you pick certain stretches of games you can make him look great, but on the whole his first two seasons have been pretty bad. He hasn’t shown the ability and the patience to consistently run an NFL offense. His offensive line was poor a season ago, but he didn’t make life any easier for them as he regularly broke from clean pockets. And among ordinary quarterbacks he led the league in interceptions a year ago (when discussing interceptions you can’t lump Jameis Winston in with mere mortals). Some of these were bad luck, but many came due to reckless and unnecessary aggression.
Even outside of Mayfield there are some worrying signs. Odell Beckham’s performance has seemed to slip each year since his rookie season, and they don’t have much depth below their top two receivers. Their offense was boosted a year ago by several long runs from Nick Chubb that aren’t consistent from season-to-season. And while the defense is talented, we haven’t seen the results on the field, and it’s always hard to say when a young defense will come together. This team has the upside to compete for the division, but they have the downside to finish with another top-ten draft selection as well.
Player to Watch – David Njoku, TE
Njoku has the talent to be a desperately needed extra spark on offense, but through three seasons in the league he hasn’t lived up to it yet. Things are rocky for him right now in Cleveland. They signed Austin Hooper in the offseason, and Njoku put in a trade request a couple months ago before withdrawing it. This is probably his last shot to prove himself in Cleveland.
Njoku has struggled with both health and consistency since arriving in Cleveland, but he is still incredibly gifted, and only 24 years old. He’s a little undersized for a tight end, but he makes up for this with shiftiness once he gets the ball in his hands. He’s sort of a rich man’s version of Irv Smith, who Stefanski used effectively in a limited role last year in Minnesota. It’s still unclear exactly what Stefanski’s offense will look like in Cleveland, but if Njoku can figure things out that will be just another tool for the coaching staff to work with.