The Closing Window

The Vikings lost on Saturday, and for the 30^th time in the Super Bowl era, their season ended with playoff disappointment. That happens to be the league record, a remarkable feat when you realize they haven’t even had one playoff appearance that didn't end in failure. In 54 seasons they have made the playoffs 30 times, and they have failed to capitalize on all of them. If every one of their playoff appearances had been decided by coin flip, they’d be expected to have 2.9 titles. Their chances of having zero Super Bowl victories is less than 5%. Their success in the regular season has been remarkable, and their playoff futility has been statistically improbable.

But that’s the past, and as has been the case for the previous 29 defeats, the Vikings fans will once again turn their eyes forward. Because this playoff appearance wasn’t just some fluke, sneaking into a Wild Card spot in a weak conference. This is an elite team loaded with elite talent, and they have a chance again in 2020.

Of course, as I addressed in the first paragraph, things never really go as they’re written out on paper. The Vikings have plenty of stuff to get excited about, but there are plenty of red flags as well. And they will have some decisions to make this offseason, decisions that will play a major role in shaping the course of the franchise over the next five years.

How We Got Here

There seems to be some frustration right now among Vikings fans with GM Rick Spielman, including some calling for his job. I don’t understand this at all. There have certainly been mistakes made in recent years, draft selections that didn’t work out, but on the whole he has done a fantastic job of roster construction, transitioning them from the Adrian Peterson era into their current window by collecting multiple star players from the draft and finding a way to stitch the roster together to align the primes of their careers.

To start with, we have to go back to 2013. Coming off another brief playoff appearance, the Vikings were a team in a bit of a no-man’s land. They had ridden to the playoffs on the back of a superhuman season from Peterson, but it was rapidly becoming clear that Christian Ponder was not going to pan out at quarterback. Peterson was ready to enter the downhill phase of his career, they had no solution at the most important position, and their best player on defense—Jared Allen—was about to enter his age 31 season.

In hindsight they probably should have gone for a more complete teardown. They were smart to sell high on Percy Harvin, getting a first round pick that turned into Xavier Rhodes to add to the secondary that already featured budding star Harrison Smith. They used their own first round pick on Sharrif Floyd, a phenomenally talented defensive tackle whose career was cut short by a botched medical procedure. This is the first example of the bad luck that has hit the Vikings team—the bad luck that hits every team to some extent, but the bad luck that turned them from a Super Bowl caliber team into an also-ran. It wouldn’t be the last such incident either.

They made a mistake jumping up to select Cordarrelle Patterson. It was a gamble, one they were able to make thanks to some extra picks they had acquired from Cleveland the year before. But he turned into one of the two true first-round busts that Spielman has had in this period. Busts happen, and the draft is always a crapshoot (in recent years even renowned organizations like Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay have chosen players like Breshad Perriman, Artie Burns, and Damarious Randall). You don’t have to nail every single draft pick to be a Super Bowl contender, and the Vikings have done as well as any team over this stretch.

2014 brought two more first round draft picks, and the hiring of Mike Zimmer. Their first selection turned into Anthony Barr, a current star of their defense. They were building the core of a team targeted towards the 2017-2020 window, and at the end of the first round they traded up to get their quarterback to go along with that window.

We all know the story of Teddy Bridgewater by now. It’s impossible to know what he would have become if his knee hadn’t exploded and cost him the final two years of his rookie contract, but it’s clear what it cost the Vikings. The first round selection they used to grab him in 2014. The 2017 first round selection they gave up trying to replace him with Sam Bradford (a decision I hated at the time, and one I have more mixed feelings on now). And ultimately any sort of continuity, as they spent the first couple years of their title window trying to figure out how to best utilize Kirk Cousins.

From 2012 through 2014 the Vikings built the star talent of their roster. Smith, Barr, and Rhodes locked down their defense, while they handed out big contracts both in-house (Everson Griffen) and in free agency (Linval Joseph) to form the core of this elite unit. In 2015 they had another phenomenal draft, adding quality starters in Trae Waynes and Eric Kendricks in the first two rounds and finding genuine stars Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs in later rounds.

All these players are still on their team now, and all are major factors in what they have accomplished. With the exception of Waynes, all have signed second contracts that have locked them up through next season at least. Throw in the big deals they gave to Cousins, Riley Reiff, Kyle Rudolph, and Adam Thielen, and it is hard to believe they aren’t doubling the salary cap with this roster.

The problems for Minnesota have come in the drafts since then. In 2016 they whiffed on Laquon Treadwell, their other first round bust during this period. Combined with the pick they traded away in 2017, that left two straight years with no first round talent added. 2018 brought Mike Hughes, who has been limited by injuries over his first two seasons. And their 2019 first round pick, center Garrett Bradbury, was one of the biggest liabilities on their roster this season.

That’s the biggest problem with Minnesota’s roster as it is currently constructed. Because as much as they are getting from players on their second contracts, they received virtually nothing from players on rookie contracts, the ultimate bargains in the NFL. While San Francisco has star level performances from Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, and George Kittle, the only real contributors from the Vikings still on rookie deals are Hughes, Mackensie Alexander, and Brian O’Neill, all three of whom missed Saturday’s game with injuries.

Some of this can be chalked up to bad decision making. I liked all of their draft picks at the time, but in hindsight it’s easy to see the flaws that doomed Treadwell and have hindered Bradbury in his rookie year. But some of this is also just bad luck, primarily the injuries I’ve discussed. We hate to admit it, because it makes us feel powerless, but luck plays a huge role in separating the very best teams from everybody else. And for the past few years, that luck has been against the Vikings.

One Last Shot

But luck is just that, luck, and it can turn in your favor as easily as it can turn against you. And the core of the Vikings roster is still intact, though from the table below it will become clear that there are a couple of issues:

Two things immediately jump out from this list of Vikings starters. They are expensive, and they are old. Currently with the contracts on their roster, the Vikings are $5 million over the salary cap. And that doesn’t take into consideration the money they will have to spend on draft picks, or any of their own players they want to resign. They probably don’t have a chance at bringing back Waynes, but hopefully they can find a way to get new contracts for Alexander and Harris to at least keep some continuity in their secondary.

To do this, they are going to have to clear up cap space. Of the players I listed above, some are easy cuts. Rhodes is gone, as he was a below average cornerback this year and will turn 30 by the start of next season. It would be nice if they could renegotiate with Joseph and Griffen, but they aren’t worth what it would cost to keep them at this point. Joseph would be more important to bring back, since they really have no one else on the interior.

There are other smaller cuts that can be made. Releasing Reiff would save a lot of money but would cripple their already shaky offensive line. They have a young replacement for Rudolph already, but he isn’t costing them that much, and he’s coming off an excellent season. And as much as cutting Harrison Smith would save them, he is still an elite player and a crucial piece for their defense. If they plan on competing next year, they need to bite the bullet and bring all these players back.

The problem is, pretty much every one of their starters is at the peak of his career. With the exception of Cousins, I would expect every player age 30 or older to be worse next year than they were this year. That is always the way of things, and most teams can make up for this decline with young players stepping forward. But among the Vikings starters the only players under the age of 25 are O'Neill and Irv Smith, the same lack of young production I mentioned above

So the question becomes: how will the Vikings be better next year than they were this year? They don’t have the flexibility to sign free agents, and with pick 25 they can't count on getting an immediate impact player in the draft. Someone like Hughes will likely have to step into a starting role, and I suppose he could be an improvement on Rhodes. Maybe a year of NFL offseason training will help Bradbury add strength, his biggest weakness coming out of college. But strength wasn’t his only flaw this year, and he was old for a rookie, suggesting he just might not have that much space to physically grow out.

It’s not out of the question to see them performing better next year. I was hoping they would have some continuity on offense for the first time in a while, but the Browns went and hired away their offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, so that remains up in the air as well. There is a chance though, if a few more things break their way next year. They were 2-3 in games decided by 8 points or fewer this season—not a bad record, but a far sight from Green Bay’s 8-1. If those numbers flip next year, the Vikings might be able to win the division and set themselves up with a fighting shot when the playoffs come around.

One things is clear though. After 2020, this version of the Vikings is done. Cousins is a free agent, most of their starters will be past their peak, and the salary cap hits will eventually catch up to them. They can try to string it out for a couple more years, maybe even make the playoffs once or twice, but the days of them being Super Bowl contenders will be over by 2021. And it may very well be over already, which brings us to the next option.

Tear it All Down

The Vikings will not follow this route this offseason. They probably won’t do it next offseason either, even though it will absolutely be the correct course by then. This team was built for the window from 2017-2020, and that window is now three-quarters shut. And it services no one to delude themselves into drawing out the rebuild by pretending otherwise.

Minnesota’s next window likely won’t open again until 2023 at the earliest. They will need to bring in a new quarterback, likely a highly drafted rookie to develop alongside a rebuilt core. Harrison Smith, Rudolph, Reiff, Thielen, Rhodes, Joseph, and Griffen certainly won’t be a part of it. Barr and Kendricks likely won’t be either. The only members of their current roster that I see as clear contributors in their next window are Hunter and O’Neill, with some hope for Bradbury, Hughes, Alexander, and Irv Smith if they can develop.

You’ll notice a couple names that I didn’t mention: Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs. After two injury hindered seasons, Cook exploded this year, performing as one of the best running backs in the league and proving a perfect fit for their zone running scheme. By the standards of other positions he is still young. But of course, he is a running back. And running backs age quickly, add little value, and bring constant injury risk, as we’ve already seen from Cook.

Cook will be a free agent after next year, and the Vikings absolutely should not give him an extension. After a couple down years, we saw several big running back contracts handed out to Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Le’Veon Bell. All three teams are likely regretting this decision now, and the Vikings would be foolish to do the same.

Cook is not part of Minnesota’s future, and I don’t think Diggs is either. In theory he could still be a major contributor if they are able to get the pieces in place by 2023, as he will only be 29 at the time. But as we saw quite frequently this year, he remains a volatile personality, a passionate competitor who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sort of player would be a problem for a rebuild, and potentially for a young quarterback.

Whether this year or next year, the Vikings need to move on. They need to let Cousins, Cook, Griffen, Rhodes, Joseph, Reiff, Rudolph, and Waynes walk. They should seriously consider trying to trade Diggs, Smith, Barr, and Kendricks, for picks to help them when it’s time to start from scratch. They need to be aggressive about doing this, because if they don’t, this window will still slam shut, and the next one might not open until the latter half of this coming decade.

Is There Hope?

That’s the question, isn’t it? Hope for next year, and hope for the years after that.

As far as net year goes, I don’t know what to say. They have a chance to win the Super Bowl next year, but a worse chance than they did this year. Their defense will likely be worse as most of their players slide further down the age curve. Their offense likely won’t be better. Maybe they can get luckier, and be in better position when the playoffs come around. It’s not out of the question, but they have limited options for making their team better than it was this year.

This window is just about closed, but if they play their cards right, they might be ideally positioned to hit the next window. Part of the issue they ran into the past few years was that this window coincided with several other windows across the NFC. Over the past five years, the Vikings have found themselves competing for positioning with the Aaron Rodgers led Packers, the Russell Wilson led Seahawks, the Drew Brees led Saints, and the Matt Ryan led Falcons. Four different Hall of Fame quarterbacks either in their primes or very close to them, all now over the age of 30.

Things change fast in the NFL, and it’s impossible to really say where every team will be in three or four seasons. But it seems reasonable to say that most, if not all, of the top NFC quarterbacks will be either retired or over the hill by that point. And most of the top young quarterbacks right now happen to be on the AFC side of things. Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson—toss in Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Drew Lock, whatever you think of them—all on the other side of things from the Vikings.

Look at the NFC for comparison. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff have shown flashes, but neither has ever really been elite and are both on teams that have mortgaged their futures to go all in on the current period. Dak Prescott remains unsigned in Dallas. Who the hell knows what is going on in Tampa Bay or Carolina. And of the three rookies who played in the NFC this year, Kyler Murray is the only one who wasn’t a total disaster, and he didn’t exactly look like a future superstar.

Things can obviously change. San Francisco could be kicking off a run of dominance. Wilson could age well in Seattle. The Packers could stumble ass-backwards into another Hall of Fame quarterback.

But right now, the window from 2022-2025 in the NFC looks wide open. The Vikings have the flexibility to tear things all down after next year, and a front office with a proven track record of competence. The only clearly missing piece is the willingness to tear it all down, to admit that they missed their chance and keep from drawing out mediocrity any longer than necessary.

Or maybe they’ll win it all next year. The window is still open, but right now it is only a crack.