The Not So Slim Margins

Championship Weekend is in the book, and the field is set for Super Bowl LIV. 266 games have been played, 30 teams have been eliminated, and we’re down to the final two. This is the point where normally I talk about how these remaining teams separated themselves from the pack, how the slimmest of margins elevated them over other championship worthy teams. When top teams clash with stakes this high, games are often decided by singular moments of luck—a penalty call here, a turnover there, a choice made by a coaching staff.

That’s not the story this year. San Francisco and Kansas City rolled to the Super Bowl on the weight of their pure talent. Both came into Championship Weekend as heavy favorites, and both ran away from their lesser opponents without much trouble, setting up a Super Bowl clash between two elite rosters led by two excellent coaching staffs.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

There are a lot of factors that go into deciding the outcome of a football game. Obviously the ability of the teams on the field is the driving force, but there are also a lot of smaller things which, when added together, can swing the outcome. Luck in turnovers and penalties, coaching decisions in the moment, strategies laid out before the game.

For Tennessee, almost all of these things went their way. And it still wasn’t enough. It kept them competitive for the first half—even gave them a solid lead for a stretch—but in the end the disparity in talent was too much for them to overcome, as Kansas City churned them to dust in the second half and claimed a comfortable 35-24 victory.

If there was a script the Titans could have followed to win this game, they nailed it in the first half. There was a mild hiccup on the first drive in which they failed in the red zone and had to settle for a field goal for the first time since December 1, but after forcing a surprising three-and-out by the Chiefs, they rolled down the field for two straight touchdown drives, combined taking 24 plays and over 13 minutes of possession.

Kansas City managed to score in the meantime, but this still gave the Titans a 17-7 lead, with the game going exactly how they wanted it. They had slowed things down, they had held the ball for two-thirds of the game to that point, and they had a lead which allowed them to keep their offense on plan and on schedule.

And it didn’t matter. Like their AFC South rivals from Houston a week earlier, the Titans surrendered their lead before they even reached halftime. The Chiefs raced down the field on a five play touchdown drive, then scored again in the final two minutes to pull out in front for good. Things actually hung pretty tight through the third quarter, but all life had gone out of Tennessee’s offense, and it was only a matter of time before Kansas City erupted for another couple touchdowns to put things away.

This is the nightmare of facing Kansas City. This offense is just too good for anyone really to hold them in check. They have too many weapons, and are too aggressive, and the only thing you can really do against them is hope to keep up in a shootout.

Patrick Mahomes is the engine that makes this offense go. I know this is obvious, but it bears repeating that Mahomes’s unique abilities are crucial to the success of Kansas City. His arm strength is one of a kind, and his ability to hit any point of the field from any platform forces defenses to adapt how they play.

Normally in the secondary you can keep an eye on the quarterback, can judge when he is or isn’t able to target your spot on the field based on where he’s looking and how his feet are set. With Mahomes, that isn’t an option. You have to defend every part of the field at every moment, which of course means you can’t be nearly as aggressive in the parts of the field ordinary human quarterbacks usually attack.

Much has been made about the disparity this year between Mahomes’s success versus zone and his success versus man coverage. He performed significantly better versus zone, for all the reasons I mentioned above. Defenses spread themselves thin trying to contain speed demons like Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, and Mahomes’s arm gives him the ability to rocket throws into the windows left by this coverage before defenders can react.

He was less successful against man coverage this year, but it has become increasingly clear that this was largely an effect of the injuries to his lower body he suffered during the first half of the season, injuries he has since recovered from. And with his mobility back, he is now just as lethal against man coverage as he is against zone.

Man coverage takes away some of the easy completions fired into space, shrinking the windows for him to fit the ball in to receivers that (Travis Kelce aside) aren’t exactly huge targets. They present matchup problems down the field with their speed, but with a safety or two back over the top, many of Kansas City’s routine plays can be taken away, or at least rendered difficult.

The problem is that a healthy Mahomes doesn’t just make routine plays. He gets out of the pocket, and then all hell breaks loose. He’s the best quarterback in the league at improvising, and after two years together his receiving corps knows how to work with him. And while most NFL defensive backs can hold up in man coverage for two or three seconds, it’s unrealistic to hope that they can stick to their man as Mahomes breaks contain. And even if they do, the way Kansas City spreads the field leaves a lot of open space in the defense, which Mahomes will gladly take to scramble for a positive gain.

We saw all of this in action as the game unfolded with the Titans. As many weapons as Kansas City has, the one hope for stopping them is to try to get pressure on Mahomes. Kansas City’s tackles are excellent, but the interior of their line can be shaky, and there was some reason to think that Jurrell Casey and Jeffrey Simmons could do some damage there. But Tennessee’s pass rush is not the strength of their defense, and Mahomes had plenty of time to sit comfortably back in the pocket and pick them apart.

On the outside the Titans have some good athletes, but no one with the combination of technique and athleticism to keep up with Kansas City. The Chiefs just kept putting the pressure on them, and it was inevitable that it would break through. When their offense was stopped, it was almost always due to a mistake of their own, typically drops. They left opportunities on the table, and it still wasn’t enough for the Titans to capitalize.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

If the first game on Sunday was an example of how the little things going in an underdog’s favor aren’t always enough, the second game was an example of how bad it can be when everything goes against an overmatched team. The Packers and the 49ers finished with the same record, but all the advanced metrics beyond simple wins and losses made it clear that San Francisco was the superior team. And after two head to head thrashings of Green Bay this year, I think it’s fair to say those numbers were spot on.

It might not have been as bad as it ended up being in this game. The Packers did put up a fight late, drawing to within 14 points in the fourth quarter. Once their offense opened up, they were able to find some opportunities through big plays in the passing game. San Francisco’s pass rush feasted early but seemed to tire as the game wore on, giving Aaron Rodgers time to launch a mildly impressive, but still ultimately futile, late surge.

It’s easy to forget with the way San Francisco ran the ball down Green Bay’s throats for most of the game, but the Packers defense actually got a stop on third and short on the first 49ers possession, forcing a punt. This was their opportunity to snatch the game for their side, to steal a possession and jump out to an early lead. Against a team that structures their offense around the running game like San Francisco, an early deficit can be a sharp blow, forcing them away from their gameplan into a situation they aren’t comfortable in.

The Packers had this chance, and they gave it away. They moved the ball to midfield and had a chance to move into scoring territory, but instead elected to punt the ball away on fourth and one. The good news is, they managed to pin San Francisco back at their own 11. The bad news is, the 49ers only needed six plays to traverse the 89 yards separating them from the endzone.

I don’t want to dismiss San Francisco’s first touchdown as a matter of luck, because it was an expertly called and blocked play that caught the Packers off guard. But they were only inches from making the play in the backfield, and I don’t think even the 49ers expected their third and 8 run to break loose for a touchdown. In most situations this results in a short gain and a field goal, or at the very least another chance for the defense to make a stand.

This was when it all started to unravel for the Packers. Green Bay’s next two drives ended on third down sacks, as their normally dominant offensive line found themselves facing a pass rush with the talent to match them. Green Bay’s offense is thin on weapons, and Rodgers is not the quarterback he used to be. The success they’ve had on this side of the ball has come because they have the best pass blocking unit in the league. The 49ers proved to be the worst possible matchup for them however, with the elite pair of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford on the outside to go along with DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead on the inside.

San Francisco capitalized with scoring drives following each of those sacks, and suddenly the Packers found themselves in a 17-0 hole. But they did fight back, moving the ball on the next drive primarily on the ground to get into field goal range. But this is where the unluckiest break caught them, as Rodgers fumbled the snap and snuffed out what little hope they had.

There’s no doubt that San Francisco was the better team on Sunday. Rodgers finished the day with impressive numbers, but in the first half—when the game was actually competitive—the Packers managed less than 50 yards passing. San Francisco quickly realized that their offensive line thoroughly outmatched the Packers in the running game, and as good teams do they committed to doing what they are best at. They ran the ball, over and over again, and the Packers had no answer for it.

Raheem Mostert had a career day, and he was certainly impressive with the way he managed to explode at the second level to break down angles and turn good gains into great ones. But this has been the case for San Francisco all year, regardless of who they put at running back. Mostert is pretty much interchangeable with Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman, and Sunday happened to be his day to feast.

This game was lopsided enough that I can’t really come up with an alternate scenario in which the Packers come out on top. But it didn’t necessarily have to be the blowout that it was. If the Packers play more aggressive on that early fourth down, if they don’t lose the turnover battle 3-0, if they clip Mostert’s legs once or twice to erase a couple big gains, maybe they had a chance to make it competitive. But the 49ers won, because they are the better team, and in two weeks they will head to the Super Bowl to face another elite unit coming off a similar dominant Championship Weekend performance.