2019 Playoff Preview - NFC

The NFL regular season has run its course, and 20 teams are now stuck at home watching with the rest of us. That leaves 12 teams alive, all with their eyes set on the ultimate prize.

Of course, “alive” is a relative term. As we’ve seen over recent years, where a team starts its playoff run has a great deal of impact on where they end up. Each of the twelve Super Bowl representatives over the past six years had earned a first round bye, and at this point we have to consider those teams the overwhelming favorites to reach the Super Bowl this year. The combination of home field advantage, one fewer game, and the overall higher quality of these teams give them a huge edge in claiming a conference title.

But that doesn’t mean victory is guaranteed. After all, if it did we wouldn’t bother playing the games. For the eight teams playing this weekend, there is still reason to hope, to believe that if everything comes together they can make a run and win four straight to claim a Super Bowl title.

Continuing today with the NFC:

NFC

6. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings had a rough finish to the season, and now they have an uphill road through the playoffs. They certainly didn’t catch any breaks with how the rest of the field worked out, and rather than getting to face mediocre higher seeds like Seattle or Green Bay they will have to go through New Orleans and San Francisco for their first two games.

New Orleans in particular poses an issue. Minnesota’s most consistent issue this season has been on the outside of their defense, with cornerbacks who have struggled to live up to their success in past years. And the inability to match up in man coverage is not what you want heading into a game against Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. It only got worse this week, when two of Minnesota's top four cornerbacks suffered injuries that will keep them out of this game.

The saving grace for Minnesota in this game is that New Orleans doesn’t have much depth on the outside. Thomas eats receptions, but outside of that their passing game mostly works through their tight ends and running backs, which the Vikings are well suited to cover with their still elite linebackers and safeties. This lack of depth gives them the luxury to throw as many defenders as they can at Thomas, in the hopes they can force the Saints to play away from their strengths.

Minnesota is a different team than the one that made the NFC Championship two years ago, and it may play to their advantage. This is no longer a team built around a suffocating defense and an offense that succeeds with sporadic big plays. They are much more consistent offensively, and while their defense has fallen off, it is typically easier to boost a defense for a stretch run than it is to suddenly develop an offense. Mike Zimmer has repeatedly shown to be one of the best defensive minds in football, and if he can come up with schematic fixes for their defensive issues, they have one of the most complete rosters in the playoffs.

This is where we need to address their offensive inconsistency. Because on a few occasions this year they have gone out and had absolutely nothing offensively, and if this happens again in the playoffs they will be as good as dead. The biggest issue with Minnesota is that they have too much faith in their running game. When the running game is working, they can knock the defense off balance and march their way down the field, while also opening up shots off play action. But when a defense loads up against the running game, they don’t really adjust. They aren’t willing to spread their formations out with three or four receivers, and they get caught in a rut where they regularly run the ball into stacked boxes on first and second down, leaving Kirk Cousins in perilous situations on third down.

For Minnesota to win four straight games, they are going to need their offensive line to play out of their minds. The unit has been inconsistent this year, particularly on the inside. Some games they flow to the second level and clear out rushing lanes for Dalvin Cook to chew up. Other games they get blown past for plays in the backfield in both the run and the passing game. The entire offense swings on the performance of this group, and likely their playoff chances do as well.

5. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is a fascinating team. Two weeks ago they were sitting at 11-3, with what looked like a fairly clear path to a division title and a first round bye. Now, after two straight losses, they will likely have to go on the road the entire way to reach the Super Bowl, starting this weekend in Philadelphia.

Of course, there were plenty of signs that the Seahawks were at risk even before they lost these last two games. Of their eleven wins only a single game came by a margin of more than one score, including one point victories over both the Bengals and the Rams. These tight margins suggested that their success was more due to luck than any true measure of their team.

Seattle is very similar to Minnesota in a lot of ways. They still have a lingering reputation of defensive dominance, while in fact they are powered more by their offense. They lean heavily on the running game, even when it isn’t particularly effective. And to have a chance to make a real run in the playoffs, they are going to have to make a drastic change in the philosophy that has gotten them to this point.

Seattle’s ceiling is whatever they allow Russell Wilson to carry them to. Wilson was arguably the best player in football for a big chunk of the season, and even though he’s cooled down in recent weeks, he’s still a game changing force that no one else on the NFC side really possesses. His biggest challenges come from a front office and coaching staff that have handcuffed him every time he goes out on the field. Obviously it is too late to do anything about the former, but there’s still a chance Pete Carroll and his staff will open things up now that the playoffs have arrived.

The key for a Seahawks run is to let Wilson be Wilson. He throws the best deep ball in the league, and he has several receivers capable of exploiting defenses over the top. They should attack down the field regularly on first down, utilizing play action to attack defenses that will no doubt be playing towards Seattle’s run-first tendencies. There isn’t enough talent on this offense to move down the field in small bites, especially with injuries they’ve suffered at all the skill positions. But they can make enough big plays to make up for it.

They are also going to need Wilson to attack defenses with his legs. He had only 342 yards on the ground this year, his lowest total since his banged up 2016 season. Most of the designed runs have disappeared from their offense since hiring Brian Schottenheimer, with Wilson gaining most of his yardage as a scrambler when plays break down. This makes sense in the regular season, as they can still beat most mediocre teams without needing to rely on this part of his game. But in the playoffs they are going to need to pull out every stop to beat teams that are, on paper, far better than them.

Philadelphia at least poses a reasonable challenge to start. From there Seattle will either have to face a 49ers team they split against during the regular season, or a Packers team whose record is just as fraudulent when you dive into the stats. With any luck they will be able to dodge the Saints team that beat them even without Brees earlier this season, giving them a mostly clear path back to the Super Bowl.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have a home playoff game by virtue of winning the worst division in football, and that’s really the only thing they have going in their favor. They are pretty clearly the worst team in the NFC playoff field, especially when you take into account all the injuries they’ve suffered. On the offensive side of the ball they are missing Alshon Jeffrey, DeSean Jackson, Corey Clement and Brandon Brooks and could also be without Nelson Agholor, Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, Zach Ertz, and Lane Johnson. And on defense they’ve lost top cornerback Ronald Darby and could also see more missed time from Jalen Mills, Avonte Maddox, and Sidney Jones.

It’s a testament to the ineptitude of the Cowboys that the Eagles have made it this far, and the most likely outcome is an unceremonious playoff exit. Though as I mentioned above the Seahawks are hardly the team their record makes them out to be, and with homefield advantage I could see the Eagles squeaking out a victory. From there, however, things get difficult.

The Eagles beat the Packers earlier this season, but that was a very different Eagles team. Going into Green Bay I would expect Philadelphia to be heavy underdogs, and they would need several miracles to come out with a victory. The one saving grace they have is the health of Carson Wentz, who while probably the worst quarterback in the NFC field (give or take your opinion of Jimmy Garoppolo) still has flashes of play that elevates the players around him.

Basically that’s what any sort of run is going to require, a superhuman effort from Wentz. Peak performances from Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham to disrupt opposing offenses up front won’t hurt either, but Wentz is going to have to pretty much carry this offense on his own. Even if they get players like Ertz, Howard, Sanders, and Agholor back over the next few weeks, they will still be without any sort of game breaking presence at the skill positions.

Wentz’s best—and worst—moments come when he makes stuff up on the fly. When the pocket breaks down, when the structure of the play goes away and he has only his physical tools to rely on. He’s not going to drop back and carve opposing defenses up with a bunch of quick passes down the field, and he’s not going to hit the back of his drop and nail tight windows with precision and timing. What he can do is elude pressure and find receivers downfield who have broken away from the coverage.

Green Bay can be beaten this way. Their secondary is very young, and they are willing to take some chances trusting that their pass rush will get home. I’m less confident about the other teams Philadelphia might have to face on their road to the Super Bowl, but if they can find a way to keep games close, to put themselves in position where a couple big plays could swing games in their favor, they might catch a few lucky breaks.

3. New Orleans Saints

This is by far the easiest breakdown I’ve had to do. After all, New Orleans has the best record of any of the teams playing this weekend, only the second 13-3 team to play in the Wild Card round since the league switched to the current playoff format in 2002. They are definitely better than the Packers team that earned a first round bye thanks to the league’s convoluted tiebreaking procedure, and likely better than the 49ers as well (despite their shootout loss when the two played head-to-head a month ago). If Green Bay hadn’t come back to defeat the Lions a week ago, I would likely have New Orleans as the favorite to come out of the NFC.

This team may be the most top to bottom complete in the NFL. They have a star player in every position group—Michael Thomas at wide receiver, Alvin Kamara at running back, Terron Armstead on the offensive line, Cam Jordan on the defensive line, Demario Davis at linebacker, and Marshon Lattimore at cornerback. And of course there is Brees, who is excluded from the MVP conversation only because of the five games he missed. On an efficiency basis he has been as good as any quarterback in the league this year, as good as he has ever been in his Hall of Fame career.

The Saints are healthy too. The only meaningful contributors they have on injured reserve are Sheldon Rankins—who is always injured—and Marcus Davenport—a promising young player, but not one who is essential for their playoff run. They have some minor injuries in their secondary, but likely nothing that will keep any important players from playing this weekend.

As I mentioned above, their first game against the Vikings is an excellent matchup for them. They have the offensive line to contain Minnesota’s pass rush, and they should be able to exploit the vulnerabilities in the back end of the Vikings defense. Their biggest issue on defense is the lack of a pure edge rusher, but with Jordan sliding down to the inside they are perfectly suited to attack the weak interior of Minnesota’s offense. If they can disrupt the interior, they can free space for Davis and their other linebackers to knife in and break up Minnesota’s rushing attack, pinning them behind the chains and choking off the offense.

A second round matchup would bring the Packers, another game they should be able to win handily. It’s always trickier to go on the road, but the Saints are a better team by a significant margin.

But football always carries some element of randomness, and that’s what kills about being stuck playing on opening weekend. Two games the Saints should win, two games that could easily turn against them if something weird happens. Maybe Minnesota’s play action game can hit a couple deep passes. Maybe the Packers are able to force a couple uncharacteristic mistakes playing at home. The path to the NFC Championship looks clear, but two games means twice as many chances for things to go disastrously wrong.

And even if they make it that far, they will have to go on the road against a 49ers team they lost to at home not that long ago. That game was extremely close, and New Orleans can absolutely beat San Francisco. But the 49ers have shown they can move the ball against New Orleans, and on paper they have a defense that should be able to slow them down. The Saints will have to keep Thomas away from Richard Sherman and utilize Kamara heavily in the passing game, to keep San Francisco’s terrifying defensive line from getting in the face of Brees.

Playing in the first round is usually a death sentence in the NFL playoffs. At this point we have to consider every team playing this weekend as a long shot to even make it to the Championship Round. But if there’s one team that can break through the six year blockade, it’s this Saints team, loaded with talent and experience to get payback for their heartbreaking failures of the past few years.