Saturday, August 31, 2019

2019 NFC North Preview


Like the AFC North I covered earlier this week, the NFC North is a fascinating division with three teams all neck and neck for the title. The Lions sit firmly at the bottom—where they belong, if we’re being honest—but the other three all have legitimate hopes to win the division, or perhaps even go farther. And all three also have glaring holes that leave them a notch below the true elites of the NFC, and could doom their seasons if they stumble in a hotly contested division.

Green Bay Packers
Image result for aaron jones packers
The Upside
I don’t love putting Green Bay at the top of this division. Of these three teams they clearly have the weakest roster top to bottom, and it’s always hard to predict how a team will fare under a new head coach, especially coming off more than a decade under his predecessor. But they also have Aaron Rodgers, and he may very well be enough to make up for that gap, especially if some of the young players on the roster step up.

Most of the youth I’m referring to is on the defensive side of the ball. They added a pair of high ceiling rookies in the first round in Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage, and even though both are more long term projects than immediate impact players, the injection of athleticism could give them a boost if used properly. And last year’s first round pick Jaire Alexander is coming off a strong rookie season, potentially giving them a reliable cornerback for the first time since the days of Al Harris and Charles Woodson. This defense hasn’t proven anything yet, but they have pieces in place to take a leap forward, and if they can keep the opposition reasonably in check they can like count on the consistency of Rodgers to put up enough points to win.

The Downside
One of the major topics of conversation this offseason has been Rodgers, with a lot of people starting to question if he’s still one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. Statistically, there is a case to be made that his performance has declined. He is still remarkably effective at avoiding interceptions, throwing only two all of last season. But he also set a career low in touchdown percentage, and for the fourth straight season averaged less than 7.5 yards per attempt, after being above 8.4 in each of the previous six years.

There is no doubt that Rodgers isn’t performing at the level he used to, and the only question is why. A lot of Packers fans (and Rodgers himself if we’re being honest) lay the blame on Mike McCarthy for running an offense that was light on creativity and easy completions. There’s also a belief that the Packers haven’t invested in giving him proper weapons like he had early in his career, and while they didn’t do anything to fix this problem, there is hope that the coaching change could reinvigorate his game. But if that doesn’t work, if the problem has more to do with Rodgers’s reluctance to make mistakes, he will remain a notch below the greatness that defined the first half of his career, and it will keep the Packers from being competitive in the NFC.

Player to Watch – Aaron Jones, RB
In terms of play in and play out efficiency, there hasn’t been a better running back in the league over the past two years than Jones. He has averaged 5.5 yards per carry in each of the past two seasons, better than any other running back with at least 100 carries. And yet he has only 214 carries over that stretch, not even in the top forty of all running backs.

Yards per carry can be a misleading stat, especially in small sample sizes. But it isn’t like Jones has boosted his numbers by breaking a couple big runs, with only one carry over 50 yards in his career. And yet he also has never reached 20 carries in a game. It will be fascinating to see if the new coaching staff tries to feature him more, and if he can maintain that same efficiency in a larger sample. If he can, he could give the Packers a reliable running game for the first time in years, and take the pressure off of Rodgers’s diminished arm.


Minnesota Vikings
Image result for hercules mata'afa vikings
The Upside
The Vikings are a team with their eyes on the Super Bowl, and that’s the best case scenario for them. They obviously weren’t a playoff team a year ago, so they need to look towards what they did to make the team better in the offseason. Their depth along the defensive line seems to have improved, especially if Everson Griffen is back to his old form after a rocky season a year ago both on and off the field. They added a couple pieces to an offensive line that has been the weak point of the roster for several years now, and the health of Dalvin Cook could give a boost to their running game.

But the biggest change they made was on the coaching staff. They kept on Kevin Stefanski as offensive coordinator after he took over in the middle of last season, but more crucially they brought in veteran offensive guru Gary Kubiak to help design their rushing attack. They are converting to a scheme that is a lot heavier on zone runs, under center alignments, and play action, playing to the strengths of their line, of Cook, and of Kirk Cousins. The talent on this roster is mostly the same, but they have hopes for a boost from the changes to the system they’re working in.

The Downside
The downside for the Vikings is more or less what we saw a year ago. There is so much talent up and down this roster that I can’t imagine them finishing with a losing record, barring multiple catastrophic injuries. Their defense will keep them in every game, and their receivers will provide enough big plays down the field that their offense will never be truly suffocated.

But this is a team that went all in on a three year window the day they signed Cousins, and every season that drifts bye is another season closer to that window being closed. Their best players are all sitting in the primes of their careers, and if they aren’t competing for the Super Bowl now, they aren’t going to be competing anytime soon. The pressure is on, and another season falling short of the playoffs could leave them facing some very difficult choices headed into the final year of Cousins’s contract, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they moved on from Mike Zimmer at the season’s end.

Player to Watch – Hercules Mata’afa, DT
I know this roster better than any other, so I’ll go for a bit of a deep pull. Mata’afa is one of the more unique players in the NFL, which is why he ended up going undrafted despite tearing apart the PAC-12 at Washington State. Weighing in at 254 pounds at the Combine, he was something of a positionless questionmark. He doesn’t have the athleticism to play off the ball or on the edge, but he doesn’t have the size to stick in the middle like he did in college. Even after reportedly bulking up to 270 pounds for this season (more or less his first in the league, after missing his rookie year with an injury), he’s still well below the minimum threshold most teams have for defensive tackles.

But Zimmer has always been willing to push the bounds of traditional positions, and he seems intrigued by what he has in Mata’afa. Against the run he could be a genuine liability, but defending the run really isn’t that important for a defense these days. Especially with a deep line like Minnesota’s, where they will be constantly rotating players depending on the situation. Mata’afa could be a perfect situational pass rusher, lightning quick on the inside and with shocking power, capable of collapsing the pocket up the middle while Griffen and Danielle Hunter scream off the edges.


Chicago Bears
Image result for prince amukamara interception bears
The Upside
This division is probably the hardest to pick in the NFL, so don’t put too much weight on the Bears ranking third here. They absolutely have the potential to push past the Packers and the Vikings for the division title, even if I’m a bit more skeptical about their ability to compete for the conference as a whole. Their defense was the best in the league a year ago, and even if they suffer some of the regression I discuss below, they will still be an elite unit capable of containing almost any offense.

The offense is the fascinating part. They were all over the place on that side of the ball a year ago, looking unstoppable at some points and totally lifeless at others. But they are entering year two in Matt Nagy’s system, with a mostly intact depth chart, an intriguing receiving group, and a developing young quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky still needs to demonstrate a lot more consistency, but if he can hit the right groove this year, the Bears can ride his arm and this defense a long way.

The Downside
The Bears were carried by their defense a year ago, and defense-heavy teams are always at higher risk for season to season reversion. Especially one that relied on taking the ball away as much as the Bears did. They led the league with 36 takeaways a year ago, and they turned those takeaways into points at a ridiculous level, returning five interceptions and a fumble for touchdowns. Even if they are able to generate as many takeaways this year as they did last year, they aren’t going to turn one out of six of them into touchdowns, putting the weight back on their offense to put up the points.

And the offense, the offense is still a wild card. While a leap forward could power them to a deep playoff run as I mentioned above, going the opposite direction could prove equally as costly. The Bears had the advantage of playing with a lead for most of last season, and trusting their defense to hold the other team in check they were able to take a lot of pressure off Trubisky’s shoulders. But often a team like this can regress simply based on worse luck earlier in games, falling behind and changing the script for the remainder of the contest. If this happens, the Bears are at serious risk of missing the postseason, and potentially even falling back to six or seven victories.

Player to Watch – Prince Amukamara, CB
No players better represent the red flags for the Bears coming out of last year than their cornerbacks. Entering last season no one expected the secondary to be a strength of their defense, with a pair of former first round picks on the outside whose careers had varied from average to disappointing. Kyle Fuller was a solid player who hadn’t really done anything special in his first three years, while Amukamara was a veteran on his third team with seven up and down seasons under his belt.

No one expected them to combine for ten interceptions a year ago. Amukamara tied his career high with three, after going the previous two seasons without recording a single pick. And Fuller exploded with seven, just one short of matching his career total to that point. How much of this was actual improvement on their part? How much was the benefit of a team playing with a lead against teams that need to throw? Of the two, Fuller is the better player, but I can’t imagine he’ll approach the interception totals he put up last year. If Fuller becomes merely a good cornerback with reasonable interception numbers, and Amukamara returns to the mediocrity that defined his career to this point, the Bears will suddenly be a lot less dynamic on defense, and leave their offense fewer opportunities with a short field ahead of them.


Detroit Lions
Image result for marvin jones
The Upside
Detroit has some intriguing young pieces to work with on the offensive side of the ball. Kenny Golladay has improved each of his first two years in the league, and he has the potential to explode into the upper echelon of receiving talent this year. And Kerryon Johnson looked impressive last year before being hampered by injuries. If he can stay healthy, the Lions can commit to the run heavy attack that head coach Matt Patricia has been preaching since he arrived, giving them balance on offense that they haven’t had in the decade with Matthew Stafford under center.

On defense they swapped out the disappointing Ziggy Ansah for Trey Flowers, a player whose reputation in New England more than made up for his middle of the pack stats. In Detroit I expect he’ll be unleashed to wreak more havoc, bringing a combination of run defense and pass rush ability they haven’t had off the edge in a very long time. This will only make life easier for Darius Slay on the back end, as now they have a pair of star talents dedicated to shutting down opposing passing attacks.

The Downside
Detroit’s commitment to not doing anything different after regular failure is almost inspiring. A year ago they finished in the bottom quartile of the league, and besides adding Flowers the only real offseason changes they made were to sign Danny Amendola and to use their top ten selection on tight end TJ Hockenson. Everywhere else they are rolling out the same mediocrity, and I’m not even sure if they expect different results.

Patricia was a disaster in his first season as a head coach, and he should absolutely be coaching for his job this year. Honestly I think the Lions are in a place where they need to start thinking about a total teardown. They’re financially committed to Stafford through at least 2021, but in a tough division and with little going in their favor, I don’t see any reason for them to believe they can compete in that time. Even if everything I mentioned in the section above does come to pass, they aren’t going to even be in competition for a Wild Card spot.

Player to Watch – Marvin Jones, WR
The overall mediocrity and anonymity of the Lions has disguised the fact that they have one of the better receivers in the NFL on their roster. Jones missed seven games a year ago, and even on a per-game basis had his worst performance since arriving in Detroit. He hasn’t ever put up gaudy numbers, with only a single season eclipsing 1000 yards receiving and a career high of 65 catches. But two years ago he led the NFL in yards per reception, and he continues to just make remarkable plays every time he steps onto the field.

With Golladay on one side and Jones on the other, the Lions have a pair of big, physical wide receivers who can both stretch the field and win contested balls at the point of the catch. Both are a bit unrefined as technicians, but they make up for their inconsistency generating separation by just ripping the ball away from defenders. After two years working with each of them, Stafford is now familiar and comfortable enough to just throw it their way and trust them to make a play, covering for his occasional lapses in accuracy by going well outside their frames to make consistent and spectacular plays down the field.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

2019 AFC North Preview


The AFC North has the potential to be one of the most competitive divisions in the league this year. There are three teams that have a chance to claim the division, and all three have hopes of going even farther than that. Two are young and exist in a world of fascinating possibilities, while the other is old and familiar, while still trying to figure out the path forward as they face the inevitable change of a roster turning over.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Image result for vance mcdonald conte
The Upside
People seem to have mostly soured on the Steelers, and with good reason. They missed the postseason a year ago, and their team inarguably got worse over the offseason with the loss of a Hall of Fame wide receiver. Their offense doesn’t have nearly the depth of skill position talent it had a couple years ago, and Ben Roethlisberger continued last year to show some signs of age.

That said, the Steelers still have enough talent on this roster to be genuine competitors in the AFC. They have a Hall of Fame quarterback, one of the best offensive lines in football, and a young pair of wide receiver and running back that, while not at the level of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, gives them plenty of ways to put up points. The key will be their defense, where they’ve added tons of young talent over the past few years that has had mixed success to this point. If they can get breakouts from players like Terrell Edmunds and Justin Hargrave, as well as immediate contribution from first round rookie Devin Bush, this defense can improve to make up for what they lost on offense.

The Downside
This is the real reason I have the Steelers ranked at the top of the division. While I think that the top three teams on this list all have the potential to win the division and even compete for the conference, the Steelers are the only ones I am confident will not completely collapse. This is a veteran team with enough talent across the board to win at least half their games even if things don’t pan out as I explored above.

Honestly I think Pittsburgh’s fortunes depend less on what they do than on the rest of the division. It would help if they could achieve a little more consistency than they’ve had over the past few years, to avoid suffering the couple of boneheaded losses against mediocre teams that they always seem to stumble into. But in the end, I think they have a fairly confined range between nine and eleven wins. If Cleveland or Baltimore falter, that could be enough to win the division, but if the other young teams figure out what they’re doing, this could mark the beginning of the end for Pittsburgh.

Player to Watch – Vance McDonald, TE
For years the Steelers have been built on a deep and versatile cast of skill position players. James Conner is good, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is a superstar in the making, but outside of that there isn’t much to get excited about. Maybe James Washington can break out after a disappointing rookie year, or maybe they can find a way to utilize the unique talents of Jaylen Samuels. But for right now their number two weapon in the passing game is McDonald, an athletic marvel of a tight end who has never really figured it out.

Granted, McDonald is coming off the best season of his career, with 50 catches for 610 yards as a tertiary option in the offense. But with a larger role coming his way in a pass heavy scheme, the Steelers are going to need a lot more. They are likely going to need at least 80 catches and 1000 yards from their tight end, a true difference maker in the passing game. Otherwise defenses will be content to double team Smith-Schuster and challenge Roethlisberger to force the throw, a mistake he has been all too willing to make the past few seasons.


Cleveland Browns
Image result for damarious randall browns
The Upside
The Browns likely have both the highest high and the lowest low among the top three teams in this division. Everyone has jumped aboard this bandwagon, and while I remain skeptical, even I have to admit that this isn’t your typical young team. They supplemented their roster with veterans like Odell Beckham, Sheldon Richardson, and Olivier Vernon, players who can help stabilize a roster otherwise built on volatile young talent. They have built up their depth as well as their top line players, and they could very easily live up to the hype.

How high can they go? Winning the AFC North is definitely a possibility. Neither Pittsburgh nor Baltimore is going to run away with this division, and if the Browns live up to their potential it won’t take much for them to claim the favorites status. Can they compete with teams like New England, Kansas City, and Los Angeles? I don’t know. It might be too much to ask for all their young players to build on the promising starts to their careers, but if all the pieces do come together, this team is built to be very good very fast.

The Downside
For as much excitement as the Browns have gathered, there are so many alarms blaring right now. They have a rookie head coach who has half a season of experience above a position coach level. They have a second year quarterback who struggled mightily early last season before getting hot late. Their top cornerback is entering his second season, and they may be looking for major contributions from a rookie at that same position.

Any one of these things could break the wrong direction and ruin this team. But I want to spend a bit more time talking about the offensive line. For years the line was the lone strength in Cleveland, holding down the fort while the rest of the roster fell to pieces. And now that they’ve built up talent elsewhere, it seems almost fitting that their line is pure garbage. Joe Bitonio is still a good player, and JC Tretter is functional, but they are starting Greg Robinson and Chris Hubbard at each tackle, almost an invitation to get your quarterback killed. It isn’t hard to imagine this unit crumbling and tearing down the offense with them, leaving Baker Mayfield scrambling for his life as Freddie Kitchens looks around desperate for answers.

Player to Watch – Damarious Randall
Like just about every defensive back drafted high by the Packers over the past decade, Randall never lived up to his billing at his first stop. In Green Bay he was constantly overmatched at cornerback, without the quickness or the skills to keep up with the receivers he found himself trying to track down. After three mediocre seasons, the Packers gave up on their first round pick, shipping him off to Cleveland in exchange for a backup quarterback.

Talented but disappointing players often benefit from a change in scenery, but for Randall it wasn’t just the scenery that changed. In Cleveland he moved to a new position, sliding away from cornerback into a safety role. Freed from having to chase receivers in man coverage, he became a quality starter for this defense, freeing the Browns to ship out their own failed first round pick Jabrill Peppers. Still only 26 years old, Randall has the potential to develop further as he grows more accustomed to his new position, giving the Browns another talented young piece to work with in their secondary.


Baltimore Ravens
Image result for mark andrews
The Upside
I have no idea what their offense with Lamar Jackson is going to look like. A year ago they managed to make the playoffs with the heaviest run-first offense the NFL has seen in years, a scheme cobbled together in the middle of the season once Jackson took over at quarterback. But that scheme was suffocated by the Chargers in the playoffs, and now they’ve had an entire offseason to plot what they are going to do next.

This offense isn’t going to look like anything else in the NFL, and it could explode into something truly dynamic. They added more skill position talent to their offense with Mark Ingram at running back and Marquise Brown as a vertical threat wide receiver. Jackson is still extremely unpolished as a passer, and he is going to leave some plays on the field. But if they trust him enough to let him attack this year, he can do enough with his powerful arm and his dynamic rushing attack to make this team a nightmare to defend.

The Downside
Passing is far more efficient than running, and right now we don’t have much evidence that the Ravens actually can pass the football. They were forced to open things up after falling behind the Chargers in their playoff defeat a year ago, and they actually had some success, staging a comeback that was just too little and too late. But they need to prove that they can sustain that for more than a quarter of football. Teams are going to challenge Jackson to beat them through the air like the Chargers did, and if they can’t find at least a functional passing attack, their offense is going to become stale and stagnant very fast.

I haven’t mentioned the defensive side of the ball yet, mostly because there are no real questions there. They lost some pieces in the offseason—notably three quarters of their linebacker unit and safety Eric Weddle. But as far as replacements go, if Earl Thomas stays healthy they won’t miss a stride on the back end, which is the strength of their defense. Passing against the Ravens will be a nightmare for anyone that faces them, and even if their offense is dead on arrival their defense will give them a chance to compete in almost every game.

Player to Watch – Mark Andrews, TE
This group of wide receivers is arguably the worst in the league. Their big addition was first round pick Marquise Brown, an undersized burner who has missed most of the offseason due to injury. He likely won’t be ready to contribute right away, and the combination of Seth Roberts and Willie Snead at the top of the depth chart isn’t doing their passing attack any favors.

Fortunately, they may have the deepest group of tight ends in the NFL. The nominal starter is Nick Boyle, and a year ago they used their first round pick on Hayden Hurst (actually before they took Jackson), but the best receiving threat among the group actually joined them in the third round out of Oklahoma. Andrews’s role grew as the year went along, and he finished with 34 receptions for 552 yards. The Ravens will run a lot more two and three tight end sets this year, exploiting their versatility to contribute both as blockers and receivers, and giving their inaccurate quarterback big targets to hit.


Cincinnati Bengals
Image result for jessie bates
The Upside
This division is a three team race, and the Bengals are the fourth team. A new era has finally begun in Cincinnati after sixteen years under Marvin Lewis, but for the time being it’s going to look a lot like the old era. They still have Andy Dalton at quarterback, and he’s still behind an offensive line they’ve been floundering to rebuild since their brief dalliance with the playoffs a few years ago. Their defense is dotted with veteran players who would be solid middle of the pack starters on most teams but are out of place as stars in Cincinnati.

In a division loaded with teams either at the height of their game or prepared to make the leap, there really isn’t any reason to be optimistic about the Bengals this year. This feels like a bit of a gap year, a season for new head coach Zac Taylor to dip his toes into the new role and figure out what he might have going forward. This is likely the last year of Dalton, and possibly the last of AJ Green (a free agent at season’s end). So now is the time to figure out if players like Joe Mixon and William Jackson are pieces they can build around, or if this is going to require a total teardown in 2020.

The Downside
As grim as the previous section was, this one could get worse. The Bengals have more talent than some of the other bottom feeders in the league (Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap continue to be forces on the defensive line, and Green is of course still one of the best receivers in the league). But they also have an unproven head coach, an offensive line that could go either way, and a defense that is mostly unchanged after quietly being one of the worst in the league a season ago.

It’s easy to imagine this team starting the season slow and then totally falling apart. Green is already banged up, and has been the subject of trade rumors the entire offseason. The best players on their defense are aging, while the high picks they’ve invested in the offensive line over the past two seasons haven’t even made it into the starting lineup. The Bengals are definitely a contender to be the worst team in the league, though at least this would give them a chance to start from scratch, their choice of top rookie quarterbacks once they understand it truly is time to move on from Dalton.

Player to Watch – Jessie Bates, S
One of the few bright spots of Cincinnati’s roster is the young talent in their secondary. I mentioned Jackson above, a former first round pick who has been up and down through his first four years but has flashed superstar potential at times. And joining him last year in the secondary was their second round pick out of Wake Forest, the long and versatile safety Bates.

Bates is effective both filling up against the run and flowing over the top against the pass. He finished last year with three interceptions, and if he can keep up the ball hawking tendency while developing better instincts for the game, he could be a true game changer on the back end. A player like Bates is a dream come true for a cornerback like Jackson, who boasts impressive ball skills himself and is now freed to play more aggressively on the outside.