The Inevitable

The first weekend of the playoffs was a story of the randomness of the NFL postseason. Three of the four visiting teams emerged victorious, and the only home team to hold their ground was Dallas, widely considered the weakest of the division winners. The Wild Card teams proved to be as wild as their name predicted, and it looked like we were in for a truly wide open postseason, proof again that anything can happen if you just get a foot in the door.

The second weekend was all about suffocating that hope. Each of the four home teams won, and three of them did so in thoroughly dominating fashion. The defending champion Eagles put up a good fight by jumping out to an early 14 point lead, then failed to score again the rest of the way as the Saints grinded out a six point victory. And now we’re left with the Saints, Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots, an outcome everyone saw coming months ago.

I don’t mean to harp on it, but it’s fascinating just how evident it was all year that these four teams were above all the others. When I did my midseason review in early November I listed a tier of the true contenders in the league, a tier that contained these four teams and no others. As a fun exercise I recruited some friends and tried to fill out these four teams by drafting from the bottom four, preparing for their inevitable clash at the end of the year. And as I laid outbefore Week 15, it was pretty much inevitable that the top seeded teams would be the ones left standing at this point, even as I tried to talk myself into reasons for the rest of the teams to bother finishing the year.

We all knew this was coming, so we should have these matchups figured out by now. Both of these are rematches from earlier in the season, with the Patriots emerging victorious over the Chiefs in Week 6 and the Saints beating the Rams in Week 9. But it’s been a long time since those games, and now we have to ask ourselves what might have changed, what could go different this time around now that everything is on the line.

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs

Both these games were shootouts when they occurred earlier in the season, but this one was particularly over the top. The Patriots and the Chiefs combined for 83 points, and there was only a single punt the entire game, a fourth quarter boot by Kansas City that allowed New England to extend the lead it held at that point after the two had jumped back and forth for most of the second half. It was Kansas City’s first loss of the year, and it was the high point of a regular season that was a disappointment by the standards the Patriots have come to expect.

Why things will be different this time around:

The clearest shift from the earlier matchup to this one is the change of venue. The location of the contest has moved from New England to Kansas City, swinging this advantage from the Patriots to the Chiefs. Home field is normally considered worth three points over a neutral site, and New England’s three point victory earlier in the season suggests that these teams are evenly matched. Now with the game in Kansas City, it’s no surprise to see that Vegas has the Chiefs listed as three point favorites themselves.

Home field advantage is the biggest change, but there is obviously more going on than just that. It’s been three months since these teams faced off for the first time, and there have been significant changes to the performances of both rosters. The Chiefs are coming off their best defensive game of the season, and the unit that faces New England won’t be the same one that gave up 43 points earlier in the season.

Eric Berry is back after missing most of the season, giving them a veteran presence on the back end they were lacking before. He’s been the face of this defense since being drafted in the top five in 2010, and his contributions go beyond the stat sheet, even as he’s still slow returning from the myriad injuries that have plagued him over the past few years.

The most significant changes have probably been along the front however. Chris Jones took his performance to a new level down the stretch, turning into an unstoppable pass rushing force on the interior who is perfectly suited to disrupt Tom Brady. And Justin Houston has rediscovered his form after returning from injury, with eight sacks in his past five games. This pass rush is a lot more varied and versatile than it was earlier in the season, and that will give them the edge trying to disrupt Tom Brady.

And then there is the Patrick Mahomes factor. He obviously got off to a torrid start to the season, and it’s easy to forget that prior to facing the Patriots he had only started six games in his entire NFL career. He has tripled that number since, and he will now be better prepared for whatever the Patriots have to throw at him. He wasn’t the issue in the first game, but Kansas City will likely need him to repeat that performance on Sunday, even as Bill Belichick makes his usual adjustments to try to take him out of his game. Mahomes’s ability to adapt to new situations will be a key factor in deciding who advances to the Super Bowl, and so far he has been up to almost every challenge thrown his way.

Why things will be the same:

Just in case you missed it when I mentioned it above, I’m going to reiterate: the Patriots did not punt once in their regular season matchup against the Chiefs. Excluding a four second possession at the end of the first half, here are the results of every possession they had: turnover on downs, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, fumble, field goal, touchdown, field goal, field goal. They bogged down more than they would have liked in Kansas City territory, but they came away with points nearly every time they touched the ball, and until the Chiefs prove they can stop the Patriots it’s hard to buy them as being the favorite in this game.

The versatility of New England’s offense is perfectly set up to attack Kansas City’s defense. The Chiefs rely on their pass rush to disrupt the opposing offense, generating negative plays and turnovers to mask their weaknesses on the back end. But no team in the league is better at remaining on schedule than New England, as Brady uses his years of experience to get the ball out of his hands before a pass rusher can so much as breathe on him. The weapons New England has aren’t overwhelming, but they are a pain in the ass nonetheless. Few teams have the ability to match up in both the run and the passing game against an offense that can trot out James White, Cordarrelle Patterson, Rob Gronkowski, and Julian Edelman.

That’s not eve mentioning New England’s most valuable weapon in this game: rookie running back Sony Michel. Michel was in and out of the lineup due to injuries this year, but when he was a major part of the gameplan he produced as well as any running back in the league. Despite missing nearly a quarter of the season he finished just short of 1000 yards rushing, and when the Patriots see an advantage they are perfectly content to let him carry the load on their offense. He has five games this season with more than 20 carries, including last weekend’s victory over the Chargers and the earlier matchup against Kansas City, which saw him go for 106 yards and two touchdowns against the weak Chiefs run defense.

Kansas City has improved defensively, but so has New England. Their secondary has come on strong down the stretch, and over the final six weeks of the season their defense allowed only 88 points, a per game average that would have been comfortably the best in the league. The Chargers put up some points in garbage time last week, but aside from one early blown coverage they could find nothing through the air for most of the game, with their receivers blanketed constantly by the Patriots secondary.

Mahomes has been magnificent this year, but there have been some ugly patches when things have gotten rough. The Chiefs were only 2-4 this season against teams that ended up making the playoffs, and Mahomes looked particularly distressed in early season shootouts against the Patriots and the Rams. When he feels like he has to score on every possession just to keep up, he has a tendency to make mistakes, as evidenced by his five interceptions across those two games. If the Patriots can keep this relatively competitive from the start of the game, they will have the upper hand, with the coach and the quarterback significantly less likely to make a devastating blunder.

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

The final point total was similar in this game to the one between the Patriots and the Chiefs, but it was a much more balanced game overall. There wasn’t a punt in the first half, but there were three in the second, as the Rams made a late run to turn what looked like a blowout into a competitive game before falling short in the end. This victory was the deciding factor in the Saints claiming home field advantage for this repeat matchup, and they appear to have the clear edge heading into this rematch.

Why things will be different this time around:

The Saints look like the better team based on their resume and their roster, but they haven’t exactly performed up to expectations recently. Their offense floundered down the stretch after looking unstoppable for most of the year, and they were the only team to have any trouble in the Divisional Round. Even after falling behind by two touchdowns early, they were clearly the superior team to the Eagles and should have been able to run away in the second half. Yet they needed a dropped pass turned interception to pull out a six point victory in the end.

There are key matchups where the Rams look like they could have an advantage. The Saints are built from the front to the back on defense, and last week they were able to fight their way through a tough Eagles offensive line to hassle Nick Foles after his early success. But the Rams are one of the few teams who might be even better on the offensive line than Philadelphia, and the Saints will now be without Sheldon Rankins, their disruptive force in the middle. The balance the Rams bring offensively will make it tough for the Saints to attack aggressively at the passer, which will open up holes in their aggressive man coverage scheme.

The Rams also pose problems for the Saints offense. New Orleans doesn’t have the deepest stable of receiving weapons, but they’ve been able to generate success on offense thanks to an MVP caliber season from Drew Brees and an offensive line that gave him the freedom to do whatever he wants. But it isn’t a coincidence that their offense has slowed down just as their line has become hindered by injuries. Even though every starter will be available, none of them are quite at 100 percent, and the performance of the unit as a whole has not been what it was earlier in the season.

This is not great news for a team facing Aaron Donald. The story on Drew Brees throughout his career is that he excels only when he has a clean pocket in front of him, as his short stature causes particular problems when there are defenders in his face. And there is no interior defender in the history of the NFL who has excelled at getting into a quarterback’s face like Donald. The Saints will throw everything they have to trying to slow him down, but he has proven consistently that he can beat double teams from lesser players.

Brees is going to have to succeed under pressure, and often that means he won’t have time to wait for Michael Thomas to come open down the field. Thomas can beat double coverage thrown his way, but he needs time and space to do so, which he won’t have if the pass rush is constantly on Brees. The Saints will no doubt try to mitigate this by getting the ball to their running backs, but the Rams finished fourth in the league in pass defense DVOA against running backs. New Orleans is going to need some other weapons on its offense to step up at crucial points in this game, which is not something they’ve been able to rely on to this point in the season.

Why things will be the same:

The Saints have a clear edge at pretty much every position over the Rams. They’re better in the secondary, at linebacker, and at edge rusher. They obviously don’t have anyone the same caliber as Aaron Donald, but their defensive line as a whole is deeper and more versatile (even with the loss of Rankins). On offense the only place they are clearly lacking is down the depth chart at wide receiver, and the versatility of Alvin Kamara is usually enough to make up for that.

And of course there is Brees. In any other season he would probably be the league’s MVP, and even with the insane numbers from Mahomes he has a strong case to make. He shattered the record for completion percentage and was better than any quarterback in the league at avoiding negative plays, ranking in the top three in both interception and sack percentage. He’s a cold machine when it comes to gradually advancing the ball down the field, but he’s also capable of breaking defenses over the top. There is nothing you can ask for from the quarterback position that he can’t do, and the difference between him and Jared Goff might be enough to swing this one even if the rest of the rosters weren’t already in New Orleans’s favor.

Brees was essentially unbothered by the Rams defense the last time they played. He threw for 346 yards and four touchdowns, and that was even with a comfortable lead for most of the game. The Rams will benefit from getting Aqib Talib back, which might help mitigate the 211 receiving yards Thomas had the first time they played. But Thomas is a much better player than Talib, and the Rams will have an extra challenge with Ted Ginn back in the lineup for the Saints. Brees couldn’t quite connect with him deep a week ago, but I would wager they spent the week working those kinks out, and the added deep threat will only make things easier for the rest of the Saints passing attack underneath.

The Saints made a quietly excellent addition in the trade market when they snagged former first round pick Eli Apple from the Giants in the middle of the season. Apple was a disaster both on the field and in the locker room in New York, but he has fit in perfectly across from his former college teammate Marshon Lattimore in New Orleans. The added depth in the secondary has allowed the Saints to be much more aggressive with their man coverage, which has been a boon to Lattimore, one of the best cornerbacks in the league his rookie year who struggled early in his second season. They seem content to play sides of the field rather than matchups, so he’ll have the opportunity to shut down both Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, forcing the Rams to attack Apple constantly on the other side of the field.

The Saints should have won easily the first time around, and even after the Rams put up a fight they were able to pull out a ten point victory. Playing again in New Orleans, there is every reason to expect that they’ll do the same. Their offense has been up and down over the past month, but I expect them to have little trouble against this Rams defense. And with the way their defense has been playing lately, it wouldn’t shock me to see this turn into a blowout the previous game was not.