2018 Playoff Preview: AFC

On Thursday I took you through the teams left alive in the NFC, taking a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each playoff representative. Today I will be doing the same for the AFC. We know these teams well by now, and we know where they excel and where they struggle. But often it is the other pieces that make the difference, the quieter strengths that allow them to differentiate from the other top teams they find themselves facing in the postseason.

Knasas City Chiefs

Strongest Point – Vertical Attack

The Chiefs excel at pretty much everything on offense, but what really makes them terrifying is their ability to attack down the field. Patrick Mahomes has the best arm I have ever seen on a football field, and he can hit any spot from any platform at any moment. With the blazing fast Tyreek Hill on the outside and the almost unstoppable Travis Kelce working the middle of the field, he has plenty of weapons to justify taking several deep shots a game. This offense is hard enough to contain underneath, and even when a defense manages to do this, it only takes one play for the Chiefs to break things wide open.

Weak Spot – Run Defense

You can’t stop Kansas City’s offense, but you can keep them off the field. The most effective strategy so far this year for keeping their scoring in check is to shorten the game, to execute long, monotonous scoring drives by feeding the running game. The Ravens and the Chargers both held Kansas City under 30 points in the final month of the season thanks to their commitment to the running game, and if a team can stay within striking distance early on they have the ability to generate consistent movement on the ground. The Chiefs ranked dead last in defensive DVOA against the run, and it was only their explosive offense that prevented them from being gashed on the field every single week.

Secret Strength – Pass Rush

Chris Jones got most of the attention on this defensive front this season, and for good reason. He finished the year with 15.5 sacks, a career high bolstered by an NFL record 11 straight games with a sack down the stretch of the season. He bounces all along the defensive front and is capable of rushing from both the interior and the edge, winning through power, speed, and technique with enough frequency that you can’t really shut him down.

Jones is the best pass rusher the Chiefs have, but this is not a one dimensional attack. Justin Houston isn’t the dominant force he used to be, but he got healthier as the season went along, producing six sacks over his final four games. Dee Ford turned it on as well, collecting a career high 13 sacks as a speed rusher coming off the edge. Kansas City is going to get after the quarterback, and all they need to do is produce a couple negative plays from the opposing offense, trusting that a few ruined drives will be enough to let their explosive offense pull away.

New England Patriots

Strongest Point – Coaching

The Patriots have been great for nearly twenty years now, and while most of the credit goes reasonably to Tom Brady, we should acknowledge the role that adaptability plays in New England’s success. In the beginning they were a defense first team with a savvy quarterback who avoided big mistakes and came through in the clutch. Then they were an explosive passing attack, one of the first teams to widely adopt a spread offensive system. They’ve since evolved into a quick hitting passing game that utilizes a collection of versatile weapons to hit defenses in more ways than they can prepare for. The common thread? Bill Belichick, and his incredible ability to teach players whatever techniques and schemes he feels the need for on a given Sunday. The Patriots don’t have the best roster in the playoffs, but they have the best coach, and that might be enough to make up the difference.

Weak Spot – Wide Receiver

New England has a wide assortment of gadget weapons at their disposal. They have James White, an effective running back who is even better snagging balls out of the backfield. They have Cordarrelle Patterson, an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands who has bounced between receiver and running back this year. They have old stalwarts Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, slowing down but primed for a playoff push. And outside of that? Not much, after the suspension of Josh Gordon. New England doesn’t have a single player it can line up on the outside and trust to beat man coverage, and that could be a disaster against some of the pass rushes they will face in the playoffs. Brady doesn’t move well under pressure, and his only real recourse is to get the ball immediately out of his hands, a serious challenge if he cannot count on his receivers to win off the snap of the ball.

Secret Strength – Secondary

New England seems to have a consistent pattern worked out. Every year they remake their defense into something new, letting crucial pieces walk away to be replaced by journeyman veterans and unproven youngsters. And every year their defense struggles out of the gate, only to pull it together as the season reaches its conclusion. This year it has happened in the back end, with a secondary that has emerged as a legitimate weapon headed into the postseason.

If you looked at a depth chart and saw names like Jason McCourtey and JC Jackson, I wouldn’t expect you to be particularly impressed. But over the past month they have performed at an insanely high level. They held the explosive Steelers passing attack to 17 points, and then they shut down a red hot Sam Darnold in the final week of the season. Obviously the stars of Devin McCourtey and Stephon Gilmore continue to shine bright, but the depth of this secondary is what has really made it come alive down the home stretch, and it leaves them in a great position to feel confident as they face down some of the best offenses in the league.

Houston Texans

Strongest Point – Defensive Line

It really isn’t fair that this team has both JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. After a couple years lost to injury, Watt has returned to his former level of dominance, adding another All-Pro season to what was already a Hall of Fame career. And in the time he was away, Clowney developed into one of the best all around edge defenders in the league. He isn’t a pure pass rusher like some other players, and his mediocre sack totals reflect that. But he is a nightmare against the run, an effective player dropping into coverage, and an athlete that causes problems with whoever tries to block him.

Weak Spot – Offensive Line

The Texans certainly don’t regret the decision to move up and select Deshaun Watson, but I have a feeling he personally isn’t thrilled by what they had to give up to get him. The extra first round pick they spent to move up (as well as the second rounder they sacrificed to get rid of Brock Osweiler) meant there was essentially nothing they could do to improve their offensive line this year, and it absolutely showed. Watson spent most of the season running for his life, and if there is any way to contain this explosive passing attack, it is by going after the line.

Secret Strength – Playmaking Middle of the Defense

It’s difficult to find a real secret strength on this team. The Texans are not balanced, and they are not subtle. They are going to get after you on defense with Watt and Clowney, and they are going to attack you on offense with Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. But they have put together a quietly strong middle of the defense, through some excellent middle round draft picks and a key free agent signing.

The best known player in this group is Tyrann Mathieu, the former Cardinal who has been up and down in a career riddled with injuries. He has fit in perfectly with this Texans defense as a playmaking safety and slot defender who is free to play aggressively and attack constantly downhill. He is helped on the back end by rookie Justin Reid, a rangy deep cover safety with excellent ball skills who produced three interceptions this year. And at linebacker they have a solid duo that complements each other perfectly, with the hard hitting style of Benardrick McKinney stuffing up the middle to give freedom to the rangy cover specialist Zach Cunningham.

Baltimore Ravens

Strongest Point – Pass Defense

After a couple years of fits and starts, everything seemed to come together for Baltimore on defense. Marlon Humphrey is an emerging star, and within a year or two you will begin to hear his name regularly mentioned among the top cornerbacks in the league. Jimmy Smith is still excellent whenever he can find his way onto the field, and Brandon Carr provides a solid veteran presence in the slot. While the Ravens lack any single elite pass rusher, the strength on the back end allows them to play aggressive with their defensive front, attacking with a wide variety of pressure packages that usually manage to confuse the offense and corral the quarterback.

Weak Spot – Pass Offense

Baltimore has still been functional in the passing game since moving to Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, but that is entirely due to their running game. Defenses are selling out 100% to try to contain Jackson as a runner, which opens opportunities down the field in a play action passing attack. This works as long as teams still feel the run is a threat, but if the Ravens fall behind in a game they are going to be in trouble. So far Jackson hasn’t proven he can just drop back and throw against an NFL defense, and if he finds himself in a situation where he can’t lean on the running game as a crutch, he has shown no indication that he can lead a functional NFL passing offense.

Secret Strength – Unique Running Game

Baltimore’s offense is the ultimate realization of the Wildcat package that was introduced to the NFL ten years ago. They have taken everything teams have learned over the past decade and integrated it into a shotgun running attack, led by the best athlete to ever serve in this role. Jackson hasn’t been as aggressive a runner in the NFL as he was in college, but he is still first and foremost a run threat on every play. His ability to stretch the field as a passer better than the normal running backs and wide receivers inserted into a Wildcat package certainly opens things up, but in the end it is his rushing ability that terrifies defenses.

This scheme is a nightmare to defend. Basic rushing defense relies on discipline and a numbers game, bringing more defenders into the picture than an offense could conceivably block. On a normal running play the quarterback does nothing more than hand off the ball, eliminating a potential blocker and giving the defense a numerical advantage. Forcing defenses to account for Jackson essentially uses him as a blocker, changing the calculations of the scheme a defense needs to run. It is a difficult situation, and one that is unfamiliar to most NFL defenses, giving the Ravens the edge as they force the opposing team to adjust to this unique and frustrating scheme.

Los Angeles Chargers

Strongest Point – Passing Attack

We all knew (or at least had faith) that it would happen eventually, and this year it finally clicked for the Chargers. Keenan Allen stayed healthy. Mike Williams contributed. Antonio Gates continued to plod his way down the field. And Philip Rivers stood in the center of it all, distributing the ball with the same mad fury as ever, now with talent on the receiving end to complement his skills. And if they do in fact get Hunter Henry back in the postseason, their passing attack will only pick up, perhaps even enough to match some of the high flying offenses above them.

Weak Spot – Offensive Line

It’s hard to find a real weakness on this team. They are probably the most complete roster from top to bottom of any of the playoff teams, the only one to rank in the top quartile in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Their linebackers aren’t great, and they are a bit banged up at running back. But their biggest woes remain on the offensive line. They’ve invested high draft picks repeatedly in recent years, and they haven’t paid off, with Dan Feeney struggling and Forrest Lamp for some reason not seeing the field. Most of the time Rivers is quick enough getting the ball out to mitigate the damage, but against aggressive pass rushes this line is vulnerable to total collapses, like the one that cost them the game against the Ravens three weeks ago.

Secret Strength - Secondary

The Chargers boast the most fascinating array of playmakers in their secondary that I can ever recall a single team assembling. There’s Casey Hayward, a veteran cornerback who has been putting in consistently strong work for years now without receiving much acclaim. There’s All-Pro nickel back Desmond King, a quick twitch athlete who swallows receivers in the slot. And then there’s Derwin James, a playmaker who really can't be defined by any single position.

This secondary has so much talent and so much versatility, and there really isn’t anything they can’t do. Their players can rotate to any position they need in coverage, bouncing between the slot and the boundary depending on what matchups they like. They are aggressive against the run, and they match up well against tight ends and backs out of the backfield. They are a dream scenario for a defensive coordinator, and a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.

Indianapolis Colts

Strongest Point – Andrew Luck

He was gone for a long time, but it was well worth the wait. After taking a couple weeks to knock the rust off, Luck has returned to his position as one of the premier quarterbacks in the league, and he carried the Colts on his back to this playoff spot. He’s changed his style since his return from injury, taking a lot less contact and fewer chances down the field. It has made him less exciting, but it has probably made him a more consistent quarterback, capable of sustained excellence rather than the sporadic bursts of brilliance we saw during his early years in the league.

Weak Spot – Offensive Weapons

It’s a good thing they have Luck, because otherwise I’m not sure how this offense would score points. TY Hilton is still a quality receiver, but he has his limitations, and Indianapolis still hasn’t found anyone to fill the gaps in their offense. They turned Eric Ebron into a viable red zone threat because they needed someone down there, and their backfield is a rotation of late round running backs who are only still around because their rookie contracts are cheap. Realistically the Colts should be looking ahead to the offseason, when they have the cap room to actually do some work on fixing this roster. But for now Luck is enough to elevate the mediocre talent they have, and it might be enough to get them a victory or two before they inevitably flame out.

Secret Strength – Offensive Line

I could just as easily write about the success they’ve found this year on defense, but in truth I’m not really sure what’s working on that side of the ball, outside of rookie linebacker Darius Leonard. It could all easily fall apart in any given week, so I’ll stick to a strength I’m confident is going to hang around. After years of investing high draft picks into the offensive line, things are finally paying off for Indianapolis, giving Luck for the first time in his career some semblance of real protection in front of him.

I feel great for Luck, but I might feel even better for left tackle Anthony Castonzo. After years toiling as the one functional piece on an otherwise abysmal unit, he finally has some real talent alongside him. That talent is most obvious in the form of All-Pro rookie Quenton Nelson, but he is far from alone among the young talent on this line. Former first round pick Ryan Kelly is living up to his billing, and second round rookie Braden Smith is a revelation as well. This line is still very young, but they are already one of the best in the league, and this playoff game will give them a chance to show off what they’re capable of for the entire league to see.