Drafting the Bottom

A week ago I brought you my annual midseason review, breaking the league as I always do into a variety of tiers based on their level of performance and where I expect them to go from here. This year, mostly as a coincidence, I had four teams in both the highest and the lowest tiers—the Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, and Saints at the top; the Cardinals, Giants, Bills, and Raiders at the bottom.

The trade deadline is far behind us, and there isn’t much any of these teams can do to change the basic makeup of their rosters. Personally I kind of like the rigidity of rosters in the NFL in comparison to other sports, but that doesn’t mean I don’t still get frustrated when I see talented players waste half the season on a worthless team, or potentially great teams stringing along a critical flaw.

So I decided to do a little experiment. What would happen if the top four teams were allowed to draft from the bottom of four teams for the remainder of the year? And rather than just make this a thought experiment, I decided to have a little fun, and I recruited my three friends three of my friends to simulate this draft. I took over the Saints, Remy Millman took over the Chiefs, Jan Jaro took over the Patriots, and Sam Young took over the Rams.

A brief summary of the rules we used:

• This draft is for the remainder of this year only. As fun as it would be for the Patriots to snag Josh Rosen as the heir to Tom Brady, decisions should be made based on what most increases their chances to win a title this season.
• The draft will go in reverse order of current records, with a coin flip deciding the order of the Chiefs and the Rams. After the first round it will continue in a snake format.
• The salary cap does not apply. It would have been fun to have some cap restriction, but a couple of the participants were not all that into it to begin with (as you will see from some of their picks).
• All players come as they currently are, including current injury status.
• We all know this is dumb. The point is to have fun, and to draw attention to the good pieces on the worst teams in the league and the most glaring holes on the best.

The Draft

Round 1

Patriots: Patrick Peterson, CB, Cardinals

Saints: Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants

Chiefs: Chandler Jones, Edge, Cardinals

Rams: Tre’Davious White, CB, Bills

The first round was a story of value. These players all filled a need on the team that drafted them, but they are also probably the four best players among the bottom four. Peterson requested a trade earlier this year, and New England was considered a possible destination until he worked things out with the Cardinals. The Saints tried to bolster their receiving depth this week with Dez Bryant, only for him to go down immediately with a torn Achilles. The Chiefs have some good pass rushers but no one as dominant as Jones, and the Rams would like another attempt at revamping their secondary after failing this offseason.

Round 2

Rams: Jerry Hughes, Edge, Bills

Chiefs: Kyle Williams, DT, Bills

Saints: Olivier Vernon, Edge, Giants

Patriots: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants

The pass rushers went fairly quick in this draft. It’s a position that is extremely thin at both the top and the bottom of the league, and after the first three were off the board there really wasn’t anyone left to fill the major holes that each of the top four teams has rushing the passer off the edge. Barkley to the Patriots is an almost perfect fit, a player who combines the athleticism of Cordarrelle Patterson with some actual rushing instincts, as well as being an elite receiver out of the backfield.

Round 3

Patriots: Landon Collins, S, Giants

Saints: Kelechi Osemele, OG, Raiders

Chiefs: Micah Hyde, S, Bills

Rams: Jared Cook, TE, Raiders

The most interesting thing about this draft was just how quickly the talent fell off. In the first round each team got a Pro Bowl caliber player. In the second teams were forced to reach somewhat for need. And now in the third every team grabbed a high upside player who they can't be certain they can rely on. Osemele is one of the best guards in football, but he has suffered through injuries for most of 2018. Hyde is great at forcing turnovers, but in terms of pure coverage ability he doesn’t match up with most top safeties. And Cook is a known quantity by now, an athletic marvel who never quite figured out how to use his remarkable gifts.

Round 4

Rams: Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Cardinals

Chiefs: Rodney Hudson, C, Raiders

Rams (from Saints): Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

Patriots: Star Lotulelei, DT, Bills

Round 4 kicked off with our one and only trade. The Rams are the deepest of these four teams, and it made sense for them to part with multiple later round picks to jump up and grab an additional top talent. That talent happens to be Fitzgerald, a future Hall of Famer who has kept his career going as his athleticism declined by moving into the slot. He’s the perfect addition to this receiver rotation, especially with Cooper Kupp down for the rest of the year. The two defensive linemen are a pair of former first round picks who haven’t lived up to the hype, but with their athletic ability they have the ability to offer impact as rotational pieces on the line. And Hudson returns to Kansas City, sliding in either at center or guard to fill the weak interior of Kansas City’s offensive line.

Round 5

Patriots: Andre Smith, OT, Cardinals

Saints: Janoris Jenkins, CB, Giants

Chiefs: LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills

Saints (from Rams): Budda Baker, S, Cardinals

On the one hand, Smith is a well known player who has been around the league as a starter for years. On the other, he is bad at football. McCoy is the best player to go this late in the draft, falling due to a lack of need at the running back position. He offers the Chiefs depth and playmaking ability at a spot where they are thinner than the other top teams. Baker is an interesting player, a talented young safety who flies everywhere on the field and makes plays. Integrating him into the defense may be a challenge, but he offers upside that few others this late have.

Round 6

Rams: Derek Carr, QB, Raiders

Chiefs: Justin Pugh, G, Cardinals

Saints: Evan Engram, TE, Giants

Patriots: Josh Rosen, QB, Cardinals

The most interesting picks in the sixth round were the two quarterbacks who went off the board. Remember, this isn’t about long term investment, so both of these were drafted as injury insurance. A year ago I would have been skeptical, but Nick Foles proved the value of a backup, and at this point I don’t hate the picks. The Saints add another receiver from the Giants, the big and fast Engram who will allow them to stretch the field down the middle in a way Brees hasn’t had since Jimmy Graham.

Round 7

Patriots: Kony Ealy, DE, Raiders

Saints: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Bills

Chiefs: Lorenzo Alexander, LB, Bills

Saints (from Rams): David Johnson, RB, Cardinals

This was a round of flyers. It’s very likely that none of these players would actually contribute, but the talent was worth taking a risk on. Edmunds is a big, athletic linebacker who is still figuring things out as a rookie, but he’s the only athlete at that position worth sliding into the middle of the Saints defense. Alexander can slot into a variety of roles, as a pass rusher, an off ball linebacker, or even just as a special teams player. And once again a running back falls past the point of his talent. Johnson has been limited by his scheme this year, and the Saints have a pair of quality backs already, but the upside and versatility he provides is worth the last pick in the draft.

Best Undrafted Players

Arizona Cardinals – Antoine Bethea, S

I have to admit, I did not expect the Cardinals to wind up having the most players selected. To be honest Nkemdiche, Smith, Rosen, and Pugh probably didn’t deserve to be selected, but even so this roster was stripped pretty much to the bone. There are a few interesting young players like Christian Kirk and Haason Reddick that could turn into something down the road, but the most useful player at this moment is probably their veteran safety. Bethea is past his prime, but he at least knows what he’s doing, and for a team without much else going for it that’s probably the best thing they could ask for in their secondary.

New York Giants – Sterling Shepard, WR

There are a lot of decent Giants players left on the board. Nate Solder hasn’t lived up to his big money contract, but he’s a league average player at a crucial position. Will Hernandez has had a strong rookie season, and Dalvin Tomlinson is getting a chance to show his worth in the middle since the trade of Damon Harrison. But despite losing three offensive weapons, their best player is still probably a receiver. The bottom four teams were actually fairly deep at that position, with other solid role players like Kirk and Jordy Nelson not being selected. Shepard is a quality number two receiving option, capable of winning on a variety of routes either on the outside or in the slot.

Buffalo Bills – Jordan Poyer, S

Buffalo’s offense is so wretched that most people don’t realize how well their defense has been playing this year. The strength is at the back end, and we saw two players taken from their secondary in the first three rounds of this draft. Poyer isn’t the all around stud that White is, and he isn’t as versatile as Hyde, but he is a quality option to man the deep middle of the field. He had five interceptions a year ago and has added another pair so far this year, shutting down deep passes so White and Hyde can play aggressive underneath.

Oakland Raiders – Gabe Jackson, OG

It wasn’t surprising that the Raiders had the fewest players selected. If Amari Cooper or Khalil Mack were still around they absolutely would have been selected very early, but the Raiders have worked harder than any team to strip their roster to the bones. The most intriguing players left on defense are all young athletes who have yet to prove themselves as consistent players, and no one felt like adding Maurice Hurst, Arden Key, or Gareon Conley. The one place they remain strong however is on the interior of the offensive line, and despite losing both Osemele and Hudson in this draft, they still have a very good guard in Jackson, arguably the best player left on any teams after we finished stripping them for parts.

Biggest Unfilled Need

New England Patriots – Wide Receiver

There were a lot of good receivers on the board, which makes it surprising that the Patriots didn’t go that direction. They did add a talented receiver out of the backfield in Barkley, but the fact remains that they are in need of a reliable weapon on the outside. Brady hasn’t been as precise as we’re used to seeing this year, and it would help him a great deal if he had a receiver he could trust to win an average one on one matchup.

New Orleans Saints – Edge Pass Rush

The Saints got Vernon in the second round, but that doesn’t change the fact that they are very lacking in threats to get after the quarterback from the edge. They have a pair of excellent interior rushers in Cam Jordan and Sheldon Rankins, but they haven’t gotten consistent contribution yet from rookie Marcus Davenport, who they spent two first round picks to grab and is now hindered by an injury.

Kansas City Chiefs – Cornerback

While it is looking like the Chiefs made a pretty good decision to part ways with Marcus Peters this offseason, they still have a fairly serious hole at the cornerback position. So far this year they have survived simply by outscoring the opposition, but as the margins get tighter it is going to become an issue that they can’t cover anyone. They had the opportunity to grab a couple starting caliber cornerbacks in this draft, but they worked to plug other holes in their defense, hoping that by improving their pass rush they could cover up the weaknesses on the back end.

Los Angeles Rams – Linebacker

The Rams seem to have everything, and this draft filled a number of the weak points on their team. Except perhaps the weakest spot, the middle level of their defense. As run defenders their linebackers are capable if unspectacular, but in the passing game they are horrific liabilities. They can’t dream of keeping up with running backs or tight ends operating underneath or in the middle of the field, which is a problem when they have to figure out how to beat teams that boast James White, Rob Gronkowski, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and Travis Kelce.