We
have reached (and even slightly surpassed) the midway point of the 2018 NFL
season. Every team in the league has played at least eight games, and we’re
entering the downhill stretch of the regular season. Over the next few weeks
the playoff field will begin to take shape, as one by one 20 teams are
eliminated to leave 12 competing for the final prize. So now seems like as good
a time as any to step back and see where we stand.
This
is the sixth year I’ve done this, and I’m going to be following the same format
as in the past. Over two posts I will group teams into various tiers based on
how I think they stack up now, from the Super Bowl contenders down to the teams
fighting for the first pick in the draft.
I’m
starting today with the bottom half of the league. In the five years I’ve done
this, only six of the 80 teams I’ve listed in this bottom half have gone on to
make the postseason. In all likelihood there will probably be another one that
makes it through this year. But the vast majority of these teams are far away
from competing for a spot in the postseason, and it’s reasonable to write them
off starting today.
(FYI, don't pay any attention to the order within each tier. It's pretty much random.)
Who
the Hell Knows
If
there are going to be playoff teams that come out of this post, they will be
from this tier. At times these teams look like legitimate contenders, while at others
they get rushed off the field by teams they should be able to match. I could
see any of these teams getting hot and making a run down the stretch, and I
could also see them finishing with around the same win total they have now.
Miami
Dolphins (5-4)
Congratulations
to the Dolphins, the only team with a winning record I like little enough to
drop into the bottom half of the league. They have five wins, but three of
those have come thanks to games against the Jets and the Raiders. Their early
season success was bolstered by ridiculous success forcing turnovers in the red
zone, and since this regressed to normal levels they have won only two of their
last six games.
That
said, there is still a very easy path to the playoffs for them. They have two
games left against Buffalo and one each against the Colts and the Jaguars. If
they win all of those, or if they get three and steal one of the cross
conference matchups against the Vikings or the Packers, they can get to nine
wins which is right about where the last playoff spot in the AFC will end up.
Getting Ryan Tannehill back will help as well, assuming he ever recovers from
the still slightly mysterious shoulder injury.
Baltimore
Ravens (4-5)
In
a way I kind of feel bad for the Ravens. They have put together the best
defense in the NFL this year, and it simply doesn’t matter. The balance of
power has shifted so far to the offensive side of the ball that absolute
dominance on defense isn’t enough to get a team to the playoffs,
as three straight defeats to high powered offenses have revealed. The Ravens
actually did a reasonable job holding New Orleans, Carolina, and Pittsburgh in
check, but they still need their own offense to be able to put up nearly 30
points a game just to compete.
Simply
put, the offense is not capable of doing that. There has been a rush of calls
for Lamar Jackson to take over as the team has fallen off, and I think by the
end of this year he will be the starter for this team. But they still have an
inexperienced offensive line and no dynamic athletes who can make plays on
their own. They’ve built a team that can’t win in the modern NFL, and it is
probably going to take a couple years for them to fix this.
Tennessee
Titans (4-4)
This
team is all over the place this year. A couple weeks ago they lost back to back
games against the Bills and the Ravens, failing to score even a single point
against the latter. The following week they came within a two point conversion
of knocking off the Chargers, and on Monday night they looked excellent in a road
victory over the Cowboys. Marcus Mariota hasn’t taken the leap people expected
after being freed from Mike Mularkey, but he still makes occasional intriguing
plays to carry an offense without much supporting talent.
I’m
not sure I can see this team making a run at the playoffs, but I can’t rule it
out either. They have winnable games remaining against both the New York squads
and a pair against the Colts, and if they can knock off the Texans in Houston
they have a chance to get back into the division race. But that relies on them
finding a level of consistency they haven’t reached yet this year, and I think
their main goal should be to try to identify the talent on offense worth
keeping around, and hope that they can take a real step forward in year two.
In
Other Circumstances…
These
aren’t necessarily bad teams. In fact, if a few things had broken a little
differently they might be in position to make a run to the playoffs this year.
But they aren’t good enough to dig their ways out of the holes they now find
themselves in, and they should realistically turn their focus towards making
sure the same failures don’t repeat in 2019.
Indianapolis
Colts (3-5)
There
was a lot of work that needed to be done with this team at the start of the
season, and no one is shocked that they are looking up towards the playoffs.
But they still have to be feeling a little bit of regret as they look back at
missed opportunities earlier in the year. They had opportunities to beat the
Eagles and the Texans and let them slip away, and they should have beaten the
Jets a couple weeks ago.
This
team isn’t good, but they are trending up. Andrew Luck has settled in after
some rust over his first few starts, and he looks like he’s found an excellent
rapport with new coach Frank Reich. They’ve finally built an offensive line
that can protect him, and this offense only gets better with each passing week.
They will win more games over the second half of the season than they did over
the first, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them threaten the playoffs, even if
their tough early losses have left them too far back to have any real hope.
Detroit
Lions (3-5)
The
situation is grim for the Lions after being shut down by the Vikings this past
weekend, and they are now looking up at everyone else in their division. They
traded away one of their best offensive players a week ago, their coach is
feuding with the local media, and their performance seems to get worse on the
field every week.
Except.
Except that Detroit’s best games have come against their toughest competition.
They dominated the Patriots, outdueled the Dolphins, and survived against the
Packers. These are the sort of wins you would expect to see from a legitimate
contender, not a team that’s lost to the Jets, 49ers, and Cowboys. They’ve
proven that they can play with the best teams in the league, and now they’ll
have an offseason to figure out what it will take to get that kind of effort
every week next year.
Jacksonville
Jaguars (3-5)
This
is the same team that nearly made it to the Super Bowl a year ago. Yes, their
pass rush has fallen off some, and yes, they haven’t forced as many turnovers.
They have more injuries, and they haven’t gotten off to as many early leads,
forcing Blake Bortles into less comfortable situations. When things break right
for them, they still have the ability to beat teams like the Patriots. But
after four straight losses, none of which were particularly close, it seems
like the season has slipped away from the once hopeful Jaguars.
This
team has the ability to bounce back next year, but they need to learn some
resiliency. The locker room is filled with big personalities, and there has
been a lot of tension as they’ve struggled over the past few weeks. They need
to learn that it’s okay for things to go wrong, that they can still win if they
get behind early and they don’t have to press for everything to work out.
Bortles is what Bortles is, but there are plenty of good pieces on this roster,
from Jalen Ramsey on defense to Keelan Cole on offense, setting them up for more
success down the road.
Denver
Broncos (3-6)
Is
anyone really surprised that the Case Keenum signing did not work out? Outside
of an all too brief appearance by Peyton Manning this team has been floundering
at the quarterback position for twenty years now, and bringing in another
journeyman veteran wasn’t going to magically fix things. The emergence of
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman has certainly made life easier for the
offense, but it doesn’t matter with a quarterback they can’t trust to run the
offense.
This
team still has pieces to compete, and they need to be aggressive about fixing
the quarterback spot. Von Miller and Chris Harris aren’t going to be around
forever, and they need to take advantage of the talent
while it’s still there on the roster. The good news is that it looks like they
did an excellent job in this year’s draft, giving them the sort of young talent
they can build around starting new next year.
Are
We Sure They Know They’re Playing Football?
There
was never any real hope for these teams, and the first half of the season has
only served to confirm what we suspected all along. They’ll spend the second
half of the season trying to figure out what they have on their roster that’s
worth preserving for the future, and what parts are holding them back and need
to be tossed aside.
New
York Jets (3-6)
The
opening game against the Lions was a lot of fun. Since then, things have gotten
ugly. Sam Darnold has been bad for the most part this year, covering up for it
with pleasant memories of his first game on Monday Night Football. He still
hits an occasional big play down the field, but his accuracy is all over the
place, and his decision making isn’t much better. He has a lot of time to grow
before any decisions need to be made, but it is a grim start to his career and
gives plenty of reason to ponder whether they should make a change in the
coaching staff this offseason.
There
isn’t much else to say about this team. Whatever they are building towards, I don’t
know how many of the players currently on this team will be a part of this.
Outside of Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, and maybe Quincy Enunwa, I don’t see
a single player on this roster who will ever be anything more than a role
player. They need star talent, and fortunately they’ll be in position to draft
it next year.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
All
the attention has gone to the quarterback position in Tampa Bay, which has
conveniently covered for the fact that this defense is absolutely dreadful,
particularly against the pass. They are giving up more than 300 yards per game
through the air, and have managed only one interception against 22 touchdown
passes. They basically turn every quarterback they face into Drew Brees. No
matter who you start at quarterback, you’re not going to win that
battle.
Fortunately,
defense is a lot easier to turn around than offense, and with pieces like
DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans in place, I could see them taking a
leap next year. Of course, I’ve said that each of the past five seasons, and it
never comes to fruition. They still don’t have a clue of what they are going to
be doing long term at quarterback, and a lot is going to ride on what route
they end up going with their coaching staff this offseason.
Cleveland
Browns (2-6-1)
There
were some exciting moments at the start of the year, but nine games in the
Browns have fallen back to their familiar trainwreck status. Baker Mayfield has
hit a lot of bumps in his rookie season, and they finally torched their
coaching staff, only to elevate walking turd Gregg Williams to the head role.
To his credit the defense is playing very well this year, led by the young pair
Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi.
This
team has done a good job tearing things down over the past few years, and now
they are in a position to start building up again. It would be good to see them
win a few more games down the stretch, but honestly that doesn’t matter in the
long run. They need to step back and go a new direction with the coaching
staff, and continue to make good decisions selecting young players in the
draft. Of course, with Jimmy Haslam still running things there are clear limits
to how good their decisions can be. But there is hope in Cleveland, for the
first time in a decade.
San
Francisco 49ers (2-7)
The
season for the 49ers obviously ended when Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL, but it
wasn’t really going anywhere before that. It’s unfortunate that they don’t have
this season to develop and evaluate their big money quarterback, but I don’t think he would have added more than two or three victories to their final
total. If anything his loss puts them in better position to snag an impact
player in the draft, whether that is an edge pass rusher to make up for the
disappointment of Solomon Thomas or a weapon to contribute to the passing game.
The
fact that this team hasn’t totally bottomed out with CJ Beathard and Nick
Mullens starting at quarterback suggests that there are some good things going
on here. Rookie tackle Mike McGlinchey has been solid, and young players
DeForest Buckner, Reuben Foster, and Fred Warner show signs of a core that can
be built around on defense. And of course, Kyle Shanahan remains one of the
best play designers and callers in the league. If they can continue to add to the talent onto this
roster, there is a bright future here.
Dallas
Cowboys (3-5)
This
is the folly of building a team around the running game. When everything goes
perfectly as it did two years ago, you can control games and run away from the
competition. When things start to get messy though, you don’t have enough
versatility to win in different ways. The Cowboys hoped that Dak Prescott would
develop to give them that versatility, but so far he has failed to do so,
struggling to hit even routine passes when his team demands it of him.
Things
don’t look any better for the Cowboys in the long term than they do the rest of
the season. The Prescott issue will remain until he either proves himself
worthy or they move on altogether, and after trading a first round pick for
Amari Cooper they are running short on options to improve their team. They have
some interesting young athletes on defense, but it will take time to pull them
together, and even if they improve that side of the ball they will still have
serious questions to answer on offense.
Crimes
Against the Sport
There
are bad teams in the league, and then there are these teams. Maybe it feels
like this every year, but it seems like this season in particular the bottom
feeders are particularly atrocious. Not only do these teams have no shot of
making the playoffs, they have very little chances of winning multiple games
the rest of the way.
Arizona
Cardinals (2-6)
The
good news for Arizona: Josh Rosen looks like he’s going to be very good. The
bad news: everything else about their roster. No one expected this team to be
good this year, but they were expected to have a few bright spots. But instead
Patrick Peterson has caused discontent in the locker room, and David Johnson has
looked limp and irrelevant since making his way back onto the field.
This
team is a long, long way from being competitive, and even a high draft pick
next year will not put them in position to win soon. If given a choice to
forfeit the rest of their games, it probably wouldn’t be ridiculous to take it.
Their goal for the rest of the seasons should be to keep Rosen from being
destroyed, so that next year they can maybe play well enough to win four or
five games.
Buffalo
Bills (2-7)
The
true tragedy in Buffalo is how their miserable offense has covered up a strong
performance by this defense. Their secondary isn’t making as many big plays as
it did a year ago, but they are still excellent at challenging receivers at all
levels of the field. Jerry Hughes has come on strong again after a dip last
year, and Tremaine Edmunds shows flashes of elite ability in the middle of an
inconsistent rookie year.
But
this offense is just the worst thing in the NFL right now. They have no capable
wide receivers, they lost their two best offensive linemen in the offseason,
and the quarterback position has been a revolving door of incompetence. They
have to hope that Josh Allen’s return down the stretch will provide them a bit
of a spark, something to go with into the offseason so they aren’t stuck with
the memory of Nathan Peterman leading them out onto the field.
New
York Giants (1-7)
I’ll
give the Giants some credit. Unlike the rest of the teams in this tier, they
are occasionally fun. Odell Beckham is still a freak of nature who makes plays
that no one else in the league can, and now they have a second player who fits
that description as well with Saquon Barkley. Barkley is still maddeningly
inconsistent, and I don’t buy the Rookie of the Year hype for him. But he’s
good for a couple plays each game that are electric in a way very few players
in the league can replicate.
It
is too bad that every play still goes through Eli Manning. Manning is
completely incapable of playing quarterback in the NFL right now. He has no
accuracy when trying to throw the ball more than ten yards down the field, and
he has no interest in standing in the pocket. But it’s not like the Giants have
a more interesting option on the bench, so they might as well humor the guy who
brought them two Super Bowls. Just don’t expect the rest of us to watch.
Oakland
Raiders (1-7)
I
really don’t know what to say about what the Raiders are doing at this point.
It is shocking how quickly they have gone from one of the most exciting young
teams in the league to the absolute bottom of the barrel. Some of it was just
bad luck—the regression of Derek Carr and Amari Cooper notably—but much of
it has been self inflicted, as Jon Gruden has come in and artfully stripped
this team of its best pieces.
Maybe
this will all look brilliant in a couple years. Maybe the three first round
selections they have next year will produce three Pro Bowl caliber players. But
that’s putting a lot of faith into a front office that has been consistently
poor at evaluating talent, and in a coach that has gotten less out of the roster given to him than anyone thought possible.
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