Rooting for Chaos

We have two weeks left in the NFL regular season, but the NFC playoff field is more or less set. The Cowboys and the Eagles are still scrapping for the NFC East title, but of the other five slots, four are already clinched and the last has a 97 percent chance of going to Minnesota, according to 538’s playoff models. Barring something extremely unlikely, the 49ers, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, and Vikings are going to be in the playoffs.

Of course, just because they have spots in the field locked up doesn’t mean all the drama is gone. Because there is a lot at stake with the seeding they get. Two of these teams will clinch a first round bye, and another will at least get a home game to open things up. The last two will likely have to go on the road the entire way if they have any hope of making it to the Super Bowl.

The fourth seed will go to whoever stumbles out of the East, but the remaining five teams are all capable of finishing in any of the other five spots. Because of division restrictions there are some limitations on how many orders are possible (the Packers and Vikings can’t both be wild cards, for example), but that still leaves 48 possible combinations for these five teams.

I’m not going to go through all 48. Because I have a 12 hour drive tomorrow, and I really don’t care that much. I am going to focus on the most interesting, most chaotic outcome possible: the one that sees all five teams finish with the same 12-4 record.

To do this, we’re going to have to talk about tiebreakers. The NFL has a rigidly defined but occasionally confusing set of tiebreakers, which you can read about to your heart’s content here. But a few basic rules:

• Ties within the division are broken first. So even though San Francisco has the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Green Bay, it doesn’t matter if Seattle ends up with the tiebreaker over them.
• The first tiebreaker is always head-to-head. In a three team tiebreaker, it only matters if one team has beaten or lost to both of the other two.
• The next tiebreaker between divisional opponents is record in the division. After that is record against common opponents, then record within the conference. It rarely gets past that…but just hold onto that for now.
• For non-division ties, the tiebreaker if they haven’t played head-to-head is conference record. After that it only has common opponents before things get weird.

Okay, now lets get into what has to happen for every team to end up 12-4.

NFC North

This one is the simplest—and most likely—outcome. The Vikings already have four losses, so they need to win both of their last two games. Since they play the Packers next week, that gives Green Bay a fourth loss. Which means that the Packers then have to beat Detroit in Week 17.

This will leave both teams with a record of 12-4, with the head-to-head series split between them. The Packers, however, will have swept against the Bears and the Lions for an overall division record of 5-1. The Vikings still have the early season loss to the Bears hanging over them (Green Bay’s good fortune that they managed to dodge Chase Daniel), which will knock them down to one of the Wild Card spots.

NFC South

In theory this should be even more straightforward than the North. The Saints are 11-3 right now, so they have to split their final two games in order to finish 12-4. They’ve already clinched the division, so there’s no worry about tiebreakers there.

However, the outcome could very easily depend on which of the final two games they drop. This weekend they go on the road to face Tennessee, while in the last week they travel to Carolina. Of the two, they would rather lose the former, since that would mean an additional win in conference (and over a common opponent if they end up in a tie with Green Bay or Seattle).

But to truly understand the implications of this, we need to figure out the NFC West.

NFC West

These two teams are both 11-3, so they would each have to go 1-1 over the final two games. Since they play each other in the last week, there are only two ways this can go. Either the Seahawks lose to Arizona and then beat the 49ers, or the 49ers fall to the Rams and then beat Seattle.

The first scenario is simple. This would give Seattle two head-to-head wins over San Francisco, and thus the division title. This would drop San Francisco into the Wild Card, where a worse record against common opponents would slip them below the Vikings to the sixth seed.

This leaves a three way tie among the division winners to sort out. The Saints have a win over the Seahawks from earlier in the season, but since they haven’t played Green Bay that doesn’t matter. The tiebreaker then goes to conerence record.

This is where it matters which of the final two games New Orleans won. Because in this scenario both Green Bay and Seattle will be 9-3 in conference, while with a loss to the Panthers the Saints would be 8-4. That drops them to the third seed and leaves the Packers and the Seahawks to fight it out for home field advantage (the Seahawks would win this, having gone 5-0 vs common opponents to Green Bay’s 2-3).

If, however, New Orleans beats the Panthers but loses to the Titans, all three teams would have the same conference record. And this is where things get messy. Because the next tiebreaker is record against common opponents, except that only applies when there are at least four common games. And since the only common opponents for all three of these teams are San Francisco and Carolina, this tiebreaker gets wiped off the book.

So what comes next? The answer is Strength of Victory. Basically add up the win totals for every team each of these three has beaten, and whoever has beaten a more difficult schedule gets the top seed. And, fortunately for my sake, no matter how the other games go over the next two weeks, if we find our way into this exact situation the toughest strength of victory will belong to Seattle.

At that point the battle for the first round bye belongs to New Orleans and Green Bay. Once again they haven’t faced off head-to-head, and once again they have the same conference record. But this time, there are four common opponents, for five games total. Unfortunately, these two teams have the same 4-1 record in these games. So once again we go to strength of victory. And once again, no matter how things play out the Saints will win the tiebreaker.

So that’s what happens if Seattle wins the NFC West. But what if the division goes the other way? What if San Francisco comes out on top?

Before we get into how that could happen, let’s deal with how the tiebreakers go from there, because it is very straightforward. The 49ers have beaten both the Packers and the Saints, so they get the top seed. And the battle for number two is exactly as it was in the Seattle example, meaning the Packers once again are number three. And it’s even easier in the wild card, where Seattle’s head-to-head victory over Minnesota gives them the higher seed.

But how exactly would both Seattle and San Francisco finish 12-4 and have the tiebreaker go to the 49ers? Obviously San Francisco would have to win in Week 17 to make the head-to-head series even, which means they would also have to lose to the Rams in Week 16. At that point, the 49ers and Seahawks would have:

·       1-1 record head-to-head

·       4-2 record in division

·       11-3 record against common opponents

·       9-3 record in conference

And again we have to dive into strength of victory. This one is a little easier however, since in the scenario we laid out nine of the twelve victories for each team are the same. We only need to look at the three teams beaten by one of these teams but not by the other. Here are those teams, alongside the range of possibilities for their end of season outcomes.

 

As you can see, this could go either way. The 49ers have the edge by virtue of beating the Saints, but if the Redskins lose out while both the Cowboys and the Falcons win out, the Seahawks will win the tiebreaker. And of course, they could end up tied again, which then goes to a tiebreaker based on overall strength of schedule, both wins and losses.

This turns out to be easy however, since the two teams play the exact same schedule apart from their matchups with the North and East division. And as we can see above, if the Vikings and the Packers both finish at 12 wins the Seahawks are guaranteed to have the more difficult schedule.

This brings me to my favorite scenario. Let’s say Washington loses their final two games against the Giants and the Eagles (very doable). And then let’s say the Cowboys beat the Eagles and the Giants, while the Falcons lose to Jacksonville this weekend. In that case, the entire division will come down to the Week 17 matchup between the Falcons and the Buccaneers. With a Buccaneers win, the 49ers will be the top overall seed while the Seahawks claim the fifth seed. But if Atlanta wins, Seattle will have home field advantage through the NFC side of the playoffs, while San Francisco slides all the way down to the sixth seed.

I don’t know about you, but I know what I’m rooting for the last two weeks of this season.

Defensive Player of the Year

Only three weeks remain in the NFL season, and the final outcome of the year has begun to take shape. Three of the twelve playoff spots have already been locked up, and another five teams have 90% or better odds according to 538’s playoff model. Realistically there are seven teams (Vikings, Texans, Titans, Steelers, Rams, Cowboys, and Eagles) fighting for those last four spots as we hit the home stretch of the season.

We’ve also got a pretty good idea of what we’re going to see for most of the big postseason awards. At this point it would take an epic collapse for Lamar Jackson not to win the league’s MVP. Nick Bosa has coasted to an easy lead for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and some recent injuries aside, I still expect Josh Jacobs to take home the award on the offensive side.

Some of the others are a bit more wide open. Comeback Player of the Year is always a crapshoot, since no one can quite agree on what constitutes a comeback. Coach of the Year seems to be overwhelmed by quality candidates this year, and I’ll be fascinated to see how that one plays out.

But the most interesting race right now is definitely for Defensive Player of the Year. Not only is there no frontrunner, there really isn’t a short list to look at either. There are nearly a dozen players who can stake a claim to the award, and none have really done anything to separate themselves from the rest of the league.

Stephon Gilmore, CB, New England Patriots

There are a few trends we have to look at when trying to figure out this award. First of all, it almost always goes to a player from a team that makes the playoffs. Over the past ten seasons the only non-playoff participant winner was JJ Watt in 2014, a season in which he had 20.5 sacks a year after having been robbed of the award largely because his team didn’t make the postseason. When things are not as clearcut, as they are this year, the tendency will be to give the award based on team success, as happened when Khalil Mack won over Von Miller in 2016.

That certainly works in Gilmore’s favor. He’s the best player on the best defense in the league, on a team that has continued to prosper even as Tom Brady goes through the worst season of his career. He’s one off of the league lead with four interceptions, and with a strong final couple of weeks he can jump ahead of the pack.

That is what works in Gilmore’s favor. What works against him is his position. Charles Woodson won the award in 2009 in a hybrid slot cornerback/safety role, and apart from that you have to go back to Deion Sanders in 1994 to find the last time a cornerback won. A ball hawking safety like Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed can put up interception totals to get the award, but the general consensus seems to be that offenses can limit the impact of a cornerback just by throwing away from him. Gilmore started the season strong, but as the year has gone along and the Patriots defense has come back to Earth, the momentum for him to claim the award has faded.

Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

The easy choice would be Donald. After all, he’s won the award each of the past two years, and few people would deny that he’s the best defensive player in the league right now. His numbers don’t match what he put up a year ago, mostly because he’s swallowing double and triple teams every play.

But it will be hard for the voters to overlook the surface details, even if they shouldn’t. His sack numbers are down, because the sack numbers he put up a year ago from the defensive tackle position were simply absurd. And the Rams still face an uphill climb to reach the playoffs, though that’s not the fault of their defense, which has jumped from 18^th in DVOA a year ago to 6^th this season.

At the same time, a late postseason push by the Rams could put Donald over the top. He has a couple big games the next two weeks, playing the Cowboys in the late window tomorrow and the 49ers on Saturday night next week. If he makes a few of his typical splash plays in these games, voters could come around to giving him the award again, which would put him alongside Lawrence Taylor and JJ Watt as the only three time winners (and the only one to do it in three consecutive seasons).

TJ Watt, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Speaking of JJ Watt, he may not be in the race this year due to an injury, but his younger brother absolutely is. TJ has blossomed into a star in his third year in the NFL. He currently sits fourth in the league with 12.5 sacks, and leads all players with 21 tackles for a loss. Toss in two interceptions and five forced fumbles, and he fills up the stat sheet like no other player in the NFL.

Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the stories of the season. A year ago if you had told me that this team would be playing the majority of the season without Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell—not to mention multiple games missed by James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster—I would have expected them to be one of the bottom feeders of the league. The leap forward their defense has taken this year is truly spectacular, and a large part of it comes down to Watt.

When no one is putting up absurd statistics, this award can often come down to narratives. And a big part of narratives is performance when everyone is watching. In 2011 Terrell Suggs wasn’t anything extraordinary, but his three best performances came in prime time games with everyone tuned in. And with the Steelers playing Buffalo on Sunday night this week, Watt has a chance to make the kind of impact that can thrust him to the front of this race.

Of course, one thing working against him is that he might not even be the best candidate on the Steelers.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers

It almost seems hard to believe that Fitzpatrick actually played a game with the Dolphins this season. He has become so essential to what Pittsburgh is doing on that side of the ball that it almost feels like the scheme was built around him, and he’s an easy place to point the finger for why the Steelers defense has become an elite unit this season.

The numbers are there for Fitzpatrick. He is tied for the league lead with five interceptions and three fumbles recovered, and he has a pair of defensive touchdowns under his belt. He’s been a lockdown presence as a deep defender, and as the season has gone along he has expanded his role to allow the Steelers to use him much more creatively.

His speed allows him to start in a typical deep role and then rotate hard down the middle, cutting off crossing routes and wreaking havoc with a quarterback’s reads. He’s been excellent filling against the run as well, and a week ago he was a major factor in containing the elusive Kyler Murray. If he can play a similar role in shutting down Josh Allen as a runner this weekend while continuing to be a force in coverage, the boost he’s brought to Pittsburgh’s defense could give him the award.

Nick Bosa, EDGE, San Francisco 49ers

Bosa has cooled off somewhat, with only a single sack in his past six games, and he’s fallen out of the top twenty in the league in sack production. He’s going to have to really pick it up over these final few weeks to have a shot at the award, otherwise he’ll just have to satisfy himself with Defensive Rookie of the Year.

On the surface though, the narrative behind him is fantastic. A rookie brought onto a team that has struggled for years, a team that leaps instantly to the top of the NFC on the back of an elite defense. There are obviously other factors in play, but Bosa is the clearest addition they made, and likely the best player on their defense already. Even though the sack production isn’t there, he has remained a nightmare for opposing offenses to try to slow down, and giving it to him could be a simple way of rewarding the entire 49ers defense.

Shaquil Barrett, EDGE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This award typically goes to players who produce a lot of sacks, but it rarely goes to the player who produces the most sacks. Over the past ten years the only times it has been won by the league’s leading sacker were Donald a year ago and Watt two of the three times he won. More often than not the top sack producer in the league is a player like Chandler Jones, Vic Beasley, or Justin Houston, either not well rounded enough or playing in a poor enough situation they don’t garner attention for the prize.

Barrett falls into the latter category. He wasn’t a big name entering the year (the Buccaneers signed him off the street on a one-year $4 million contract), and he has toiled away with a team that has been going nowhere since before the season started. And yet he still holds a comfortable lead in sacks thanks to a torrid start to the season that saw him record eight sacks over the first three games.

I don’t think he should win the award, but in a year without a clear favorite, I could see some of the voters throwing up their hands and just reading off the stat sheet. Whether he deserves it or not, one thing is perfectly clear: Barrett will be making a LOT more than $4 million wherever he is next season.

Danielle Hunter, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings

Hunter’s name surprised me when I saw how high it was ranked in the current odds for this award, behind only the first three players on my list above. It’s strange, because this is the worst the Vikings defense has been in years, and the team has mostly been carried to this point by their offense. But the majority of issues with their defense have come in the secondary, and all awards are narrative based, so if they can finish the season strong they’ll be in the running for some of these awards.

With three sacks against Detroit last week, Hunter has moved up to a tie for fourth in the league in sacks, and he still has a prime time game left against a Green Bay team he chewed up earlier in the season. To add to that, he’s been making headlines already this year by setting a number of records along the lines of “most career sacks before the age of 25”, and it seems like this is the moment where people are finally catching up to the fact that he’s been one of the best pass rushers in football for a couple years now.

Cameron Jordan, EDGE, New Orleans Saints

It’s a little perplexing that Jordan isn’t getting more love for this award. He currently sits third in the league with 13.5 sacks, the highest total of any player on a likely playoff team. He’s the leader of a Saints defense that carried them while Drew Brees was out for five weeks, a unit that clearly differentiates them from failed Saints teams of the past. Obviously there are still three weeks to go, and my opinion could change, but if I had to choose one player for the award now, I think I would go with Jordan.

So why isn’t he getting more attention? It is partially due to the star players on the offensive side of the ball for the Saints. Michael Thomas has a chance to set the single season record for receptions this year, and Drew Brees is in a race with Tom Brady to see who can pass Peyton Manning’s career touchdown mark first. This sort of thing tends to take attention away from the defensive side of the ball.

But partially this is due to Jordan himself, specifically how long he has been an excellent player. He was drafted in 2011, the same year as JJ Watt and Von Miller. His career didn’t get off to the same torrid start that theirs did, and he only had double digit sacks twice in his first six seasons. He established a reputation as a very good but not extraordinary defensive player, and that sort of thing is hard to get rid of. Even with three straight seasons of double digit sacks, even having already reached a career high in that number with three games to go. Jordan has moved up into the class of truly elite defensive players, and I hope three more weeks is enough time for people to figure that out.