Defensive Player of the Year

Only three weeks remain in the NFL season, and the final outcome of the year has begun to take shape. Three of the twelve playoff spots have already been locked up, and another five teams have 90% or better odds according to 538’s playoff model. Realistically there are seven teams (Vikings, Texans, Titans, Steelers, Rams, Cowboys, and Eagles) fighting for those last four spots as we hit the home stretch of the season.

We’ve also got a pretty good idea of what we’re going to see for most of the big postseason awards. At this point it would take an epic collapse for Lamar Jackson not to win the league’s MVP. Nick Bosa has coasted to an easy lead for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and some recent injuries aside, I still expect Josh Jacobs to take home the award on the offensive side.

Some of the others are a bit more wide open. Comeback Player of the Year is always a crapshoot, since no one can quite agree on what constitutes a comeback. Coach of the Year seems to be overwhelmed by quality candidates this year, and I’ll be fascinated to see how that one plays out.

But the most interesting race right now is definitely for Defensive Player of the Year. Not only is there no frontrunner, there really isn’t a short list to look at either. There are nearly a dozen players who can stake a claim to the award, and none have really done anything to separate themselves from the rest of the league.

Stephon Gilmore, CB, New England Patriots

There are a few trends we have to look at when trying to figure out this award. First of all, it almost always goes to a player from a team that makes the playoffs. Over the past ten seasons the only non-playoff participant winner was JJ Watt in 2014, a season in which he had 20.5 sacks a year after having been robbed of the award largely because his team didn’t make the postseason. When things are not as clearcut, as they are this year, the tendency will be to give the award based on team success, as happened when Khalil Mack won over Von Miller in 2016.

That certainly works in Gilmore’s favor. He’s the best player on the best defense in the league, on a team that has continued to prosper even as Tom Brady goes through the worst season of his career. He’s one off of the league lead with four interceptions, and with a strong final couple of weeks he can jump ahead of the pack.

That is what works in Gilmore’s favor. What works against him is his position. Charles Woodson won the award in 2009 in a hybrid slot cornerback/safety role, and apart from that you have to go back to Deion Sanders in 1994 to find the last time a cornerback won. A ball hawking safety like Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed can put up interception totals to get the award, but the general consensus seems to be that offenses can limit the impact of a cornerback just by throwing away from him. Gilmore started the season strong, but as the year has gone along and the Patriots defense has come back to Earth, the momentum for him to claim the award has faded.

Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

The easy choice would be Donald. After all, he’s won the award each of the past two years, and few people would deny that he’s the best defensive player in the league right now. His numbers don’t match what he put up a year ago, mostly because he’s swallowing double and triple teams every play.

But it will be hard for the voters to overlook the surface details, even if they shouldn’t. His sack numbers are down, because the sack numbers he put up a year ago from the defensive tackle position were simply absurd. And the Rams still face an uphill climb to reach the playoffs, though that’s not the fault of their defense, which has jumped from 18^th in DVOA a year ago to 6^th this season.

At the same time, a late postseason push by the Rams could put Donald over the top. He has a couple big games the next two weeks, playing the Cowboys in the late window tomorrow and the 49ers on Saturday night next week. If he makes a few of his typical splash plays in these games, voters could come around to giving him the award again, which would put him alongside Lawrence Taylor and JJ Watt as the only three time winners (and the only one to do it in three consecutive seasons).

TJ Watt, EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Speaking of JJ Watt, he may not be in the race this year due to an injury, but his younger brother absolutely is. TJ has blossomed into a star in his third year in the NFL. He currently sits fourth in the league with 12.5 sacks, and leads all players with 21 tackles for a loss. Toss in two interceptions and five forced fumbles, and he fills up the stat sheet like no other player in the NFL.

Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the stories of the season. A year ago if you had told me that this team would be playing the majority of the season without Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell—not to mention multiple games missed by James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster—I would have expected them to be one of the bottom feeders of the league. The leap forward their defense has taken this year is truly spectacular, and a large part of it comes down to Watt.

When no one is putting up absurd statistics, this award can often come down to narratives. And a big part of narratives is performance when everyone is watching. In 2011 Terrell Suggs wasn’t anything extraordinary, but his three best performances came in prime time games with everyone tuned in. And with the Steelers playing Buffalo on Sunday night this week, Watt has a chance to make the kind of impact that can thrust him to the front of this race.

Of course, one thing working against him is that he might not even be the best candidate on the Steelers.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers

It almost seems hard to believe that Fitzpatrick actually played a game with the Dolphins this season. He has become so essential to what Pittsburgh is doing on that side of the ball that it almost feels like the scheme was built around him, and he’s an easy place to point the finger for why the Steelers defense has become an elite unit this season.

The numbers are there for Fitzpatrick. He is tied for the league lead with five interceptions and three fumbles recovered, and he has a pair of defensive touchdowns under his belt. He’s been a lockdown presence as a deep defender, and as the season has gone along he has expanded his role to allow the Steelers to use him much more creatively.

His speed allows him to start in a typical deep role and then rotate hard down the middle, cutting off crossing routes and wreaking havoc with a quarterback’s reads. He’s been excellent filling against the run as well, and a week ago he was a major factor in containing the elusive Kyler Murray. If he can play a similar role in shutting down Josh Allen as a runner this weekend while continuing to be a force in coverage, the boost he’s brought to Pittsburgh’s defense could give him the award.

Nick Bosa, EDGE, San Francisco 49ers

Bosa has cooled off somewhat, with only a single sack in his past six games, and he’s fallen out of the top twenty in the league in sack production. He’s going to have to really pick it up over these final few weeks to have a shot at the award, otherwise he’ll just have to satisfy himself with Defensive Rookie of the Year.

On the surface though, the narrative behind him is fantastic. A rookie brought onto a team that has struggled for years, a team that leaps instantly to the top of the NFC on the back of an elite defense. There are obviously other factors in play, but Bosa is the clearest addition they made, and likely the best player on their defense already. Even though the sack production isn’t there, he has remained a nightmare for opposing offenses to try to slow down, and giving it to him could be a simple way of rewarding the entire 49ers defense.

Shaquil Barrett, EDGE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This award typically goes to players who produce a lot of sacks, but it rarely goes to the player who produces the most sacks. Over the past ten years the only times it has been won by the league’s leading sacker were Donald a year ago and Watt two of the three times he won. More often than not the top sack producer in the league is a player like Chandler Jones, Vic Beasley, or Justin Houston, either not well rounded enough or playing in a poor enough situation they don’t garner attention for the prize.

Barrett falls into the latter category. He wasn’t a big name entering the year (the Buccaneers signed him off the street on a one-year $4 million contract), and he has toiled away with a team that has been going nowhere since before the season started. And yet he still holds a comfortable lead in sacks thanks to a torrid start to the season that saw him record eight sacks over the first three games.

I don’t think he should win the award, but in a year without a clear favorite, I could see some of the voters throwing up their hands and just reading off the stat sheet. Whether he deserves it or not, one thing is perfectly clear: Barrett will be making a LOT more than $4 million wherever he is next season.

Danielle Hunter, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings

Hunter’s name surprised me when I saw how high it was ranked in the current odds for this award, behind only the first three players on my list above. It’s strange, because this is the worst the Vikings defense has been in years, and the team has mostly been carried to this point by their offense. But the majority of issues with their defense have come in the secondary, and all awards are narrative based, so if they can finish the season strong they’ll be in the running for some of these awards.

With three sacks against Detroit last week, Hunter has moved up to a tie for fourth in the league in sacks, and he still has a prime time game left against a Green Bay team he chewed up earlier in the season. To add to that, he’s been making headlines already this year by setting a number of records along the lines of “most career sacks before the age of 25”, and it seems like this is the moment where people are finally catching up to the fact that he’s been one of the best pass rushers in football for a couple years now.

Cameron Jordan, EDGE, New Orleans Saints

It’s a little perplexing that Jordan isn’t getting more love for this award. He currently sits third in the league with 13.5 sacks, the highest total of any player on a likely playoff team. He’s the leader of a Saints defense that carried them while Drew Brees was out for five weeks, a unit that clearly differentiates them from failed Saints teams of the past. Obviously there are still three weeks to go, and my opinion could change, but if I had to choose one player for the award now, I think I would go with Jordan.

So why isn’t he getting more attention? It is partially due to the star players on the offensive side of the ball for the Saints. Michael Thomas has a chance to set the single season record for receptions this year, and Drew Brees is in a race with Tom Brady to see who can pass Peyton Manning’s career touchdown mark first. This sort of thing tends to take attention away from the defensive side of the ball.

But partially this is due to Jordan himself, specifically how long he has been an excellent player. He was drafted in 2011, the same year as JJ Watt and Von Miller. His career didn’t get off to the same torrid start that theirs did, and he only had double digit sacks twice in his first six seasons. He established a reputation as a very good but not extraordinary defensive player, and that sort of thing is hard to get rid of. Even with three straight seasons of double digit sacks, even having already reached a career high in that number with three games to go. Jordan has moved up into the class of truly elite defensive players, and I hope three more weeks is enough time for people to figure that out.