2020 Offensive Line Prospects

The NFL is in the middle of an offensive line crisis, but this year may very well be the one to resolve it. There are a lot of talented offensive linemen available in this year’s draft, particularly among the tackles. We could easily see five go in the top twenty of the first round. After those five it’s a pretty clear dropoff, but these five could very well prove to be top tier starters for the next decade.

Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

Thomas is the least impressive athlete of the five tackles I studied, but that says more about the other players than it does about him. He is a very good athlete himself, testing above average in just about every test at the Combine. And more importantly, he is the most technically skilled of all these tackle prospects, the only one I feel comfortable saying can step in at left tackle of an NFL team on day one and be an above average player. I typically do have a bias towards high ceiling players, especially at the top of the draft, figuring you can find replacement level starters in later rounds but real stars rarely come outside the first. Offensive line is possibly the one exception, where the sheer dearth of talent in the modern NFL makes basic competence so much more valuable.

Thomas is a pass protecting machine. His drops are flawless and consistent, and no matter how the play develops from there he is almost never out of balance. He reacts inside with ease to cut down counter moves, and he plays with excellent awareness, his active eyes and stable base making it almost effortless to transition between defenders as they run a stunt in front of him. His punch is strong enough to force almost any rusher wide, and when they try to bend around him he is clever and strong enough to twist them down to the ground.

There are only a few small concerns I have with him in pass protection. The first is how he handles power. He can be knocked backwards by an initial surge, and while he anchors well after that, it leaves him with little room to work with. Elite pass rushers in the NFL possess both power and a secondary burst to surge past him, and he may never be an elite protector who truly erases the most versatile rushers in the league.

The other issue I have is also his biggest problem in the running game. While he strikes well with his initial punch and has the power to overwhelm people if he stays engaged, his ability to latch on to defenders is lacking. He doesn’t sustain blocks particularly well, and on long developing plays athletic defenders can essentially run around him. He is usually able to buy a reasonable amount of time for any normal play, and this is something he can work on over time. It certainly wouldn’t dissuade me from selecting him in the top ten of the draft.

Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

Even on a field surrounded by the biggest and most athletic people in the world, Becton stands out for his size and athleticism. He stands 6-7 and weighs 364 pounds, and he can move with that weight too. Watching him is as much fun as I’ve had watching any offensive lineman I’ve scouted, as several times I burst out laughing watching him toss a grown man through the air like a bag of potatoes (is it racist that I wrote this just after watching him play Notre Dame?) And it’s not just defensive backs and linebackers he does this to either. With a single arm he can send a defensive end stumbling up the field helplessly as the running back coasts through the lane opened up behind him.

Pass rushing against Becton isn’t impossible, but it’s certainly a headache. He’s too big for power moves to work, as even if a defensive end gets underneath him he just absorbs the contact with his thick frame. His length and foot speed makes it impossible to run around him with speed as well. He isn’t the quickest lineman when it comes to changing direction, and he can be vulnerable to inside moves. A better punch and some cleaned up technique can help him erase this hole in his game.

Becton is going to take some time. He can probably start from day one if you need him to, but there will be some rough moments, and whatever team drafts him will likely have to give him a little extra help in passing situations. The mental part of the game needs a lot of work too, as he often gets a bit mechanical with his footwork, running into empty space rather than adjusting his blocks for where the defense is actually aligned. If he doesn’t develop these parts of his game, he could very easily become a cautionary tale about putting too much stock in what a player looks like in shorts and a t-shirt. But if he does, he can be an overwhelming force with few matches in the NFL.

Jedrick Wills, OT/OG, Alabama

Another absolutely freakish athlete, Wills has moments where he looks like the complete picture as an offensive lineman. When he stays on balance and gets his punch on target, it’s basically over for the defender. He has the strength to drive him backwards both during and after initial contact. He has hands that latch on and sustain blocks through the whistle. He has fluid hips and feet that allow him to flip around and seal the defender away from the play.

That’s what happens when everything goes right. But it doesn’t always go right, of course. The first problem with Wills is his punch. As good as it is, it doesn’t always come in on target, and once he misses with this initial contact, he doesn’t have the quickness to recover. He seems to struggle whenever he has to react to what’s happening in front of him, rather than dictating it himself. He doesn’t handle double moves from pass rushers very well, and even when he starts in good position, he can run into trouble when the defender has space to play games with him.

These are real issues that will affect him as he moves to the NFL, but they’re also issues that can be resolved with development. And even if they aren’t, there’s always the fallback option of moving him to guard. He honestly profiles even better to guard than he does to tackle, where his 6-4 height is merely average rather than slightly undersized. In tighter areas he’s well equipped to absorb the power of larger defensive linemen, and he has the strength to clear lanes in the running game. At tackle he could develop into an above average player. At guard he could be a star from day one, and that versatility gives him value in the top half of the first round.

Josh Jones, OT, Houston

Jones is another smooth, athletic lineman who fits all the prototypical measures of an NFL tackle. He didn’t test as well as some of the others on this list, but he moves phenomenally well on the field, and there is nothing that makes me think he won’t be similarly excellent at the next level. He’s risen through this process thanks to a strong performance at the Senior Bowl, and now most people have him pegged as a top twenty prospect, which is around where I have him as well.

In the early stages of his NFL career Jones will be most effective as a run blocker. He would be particularly good in a zone scheme, though he has the skills to play in other systems as well. He’s not the most overpowering player in the world, but his footspeed allows him to reach blocks many other linemen wouldn’t even attempt, and his strong hands latch on and give him the ability to control the defender. He’s very good at letting the defender’s momentum carry him away from the play, but he also has the functional strength to twist him and seal him off from the running lane if that is what is required.

Jones’s skills will translate well to pass blocking, but he will need a lot more reps before he is ready to be a reliable presence on the outside. He very rarely used a traditional pass set at Houston, doing a lot more lateral slides as the quarterback ran bootlegs behind him. When he did do a straight drop back, his athleticism showed up with good balance and positioning. He doesn’t have much of a punch, and he gets in trouble sometimes when he tries to forcefully disrupt the pass rusher, overextending and leaving a lane to streak past him. He’s much better just sitting back, using his hands to keep space between him and the rusher, and then trusting his feet to keep him in good position.

Tristan Wirfs, OT/OG, Iowa

Wirfs looks like what you would get if you tried to carve the ideal tackle from clay. He’s 6-5 and 320 pounds, with long arms and quick feet. He can overwhelm people with power, and he can make breathtaking plays running out in space as a lead blocker. He excelled at the Combine, and if you put together a tape of just his best plays in college, it would be as impressive as any lineman I’ve scouted. All of this alone is enough to make him a first round selection, even if I’m not sold by what I actually saw from him on film.

I’m not sure I can point to one big thing that’s missing for Wirfs. It’s mostly a lot of little things that come and go over the course of each game. His initial pass set is good, and when he attacks with his punch he can stop a rusher in his tracks. But most of the time he sits too far back on his heels, and this leaves him vulnerable to a lot of different attacks. Despite his 320 pound frame he can be blown backwards by power moves, and as light as he is on his feet, he doesn’t seem to use it in pass protection. He doesn’t move side to side with the same grace that Jones does, which opens lanes on either side of him for the rusher to drive through. His hands latch on really well, but if his lower body can’t keep up with his upper body this just means his arms end up yanked outside his frame, exposing him to a lot of potential holding calls.

Like Wills, I think Wirfs may be better suited to a long term future at guard. His struggles handling power still concern me there, but I think he might do a better job keeping his weight anchored when he isn’t falling back in a tackle’s pass set. At the very least it will get him closer to the defender, putting him in position to be more consistently aggressive. Whoever ends up with Wirfs has a very talented athlete to mold, and his ceiling is probably higher than anyone I have listed above him except for Becton. But if you put these five players out on a field right now he would be the one that worried me the most.

Cesar Ruiz, C/OG, Michigan

Ruiz had a phenomenal combine, and that likely cemented him as the top interior lineman in the draft, and possibly as a first round pick. I didn’t watch enough interior linemen to comment on the first piece, but I do know that the latter is a little rich for my blood. For an interior lineman to be worth a first round selection he has to be a sure thing, and while Ruiz is a phenomenal athlete with moments of excellence on the field, his inconsistency bumps him down into the second round in my eyes.

At his best Ruiz can be an overwhelming force in the running game. He fires off hard and fast, and he has a punch that wins quick leverage over an opposing lineman. When his hands lock on, he doesn’t let go, and he has the strength to twist a defender’s shoulders around and seal him off from the play. He uses this same technique in pass protection. His hands fire out, and he twists the rusher out of the way, driving him to the side and clearing a comfortable lane for the quarterback behind him.

That’s Ruiz at his best, but he isn’t always at his best. He struggles some with awareness in pass protection, and once he’s committed in a direction he doesn’t have the lateral quickness to slide to the side and pick up a late rusher. When someone does gain leverage on him, this same issue prevents him from recovering. He doesn’t ever get moved backwards, but he can end up with his feet out of position, which leads to his shoulders being turned and a lane opening up past him. Better technique can clean this up, but until it does he’ll have a few ugly lapses each game, and even more against the league’s top interior rushers.

Tyler Biadasz, C/OG, Wisconsin

Biadasz moves very well, most of the time. He is at his best pulling around as a lead blocker, a skill that is very rare to find in a center, especially one of his size. At 6-4 and 314 he has both the weight of a strong interior lineman and the frame to fill out even further. If he can add bulk, maintain his mobility, and polish up some of the other parts of his game, he has the potential a couple years down the road to develop into a high quality starter.

This potential is why, early in the process, I saw him pegged as a potential first rounder. Everything I’ve seen since has him more reasonably listed in the third or fourth round. As valuable as he is as a puller, he struggles when making more traditional run blocks. His first step isn’t particularly fast, and he can give up quick penetration to a backside defender shooting into his gap. He can be knocked back by initial contact as well, though he usually recovers to get his feet back under him. Once that happens he is scrappy with his hands, never really latching on but constantly fighting to establish and re-establish position. As the play develops he can leverage this to turn the defender away from the hole, but he rarely wins the initial skirmish.

It's hard to get a read on him as a pass blocker. Wisconsin plays with very tight splits, and on almost every play he had at least some help from one of the guards beside him. He doesn’t get moved back easily in pass protection, but his feet are a lot more immobile than I would expect. As quick as he is pulling around in the running game or charging downfield to maul defenders at the second level, I suspect this is more a technique issue than anything else. If he can learn to keep his feet chopping laterally, he should be able to stay in front of most pass rushers he will face in the NFL.

2020 Running Back Prospects

Running back is a weird position in the draft. The more time passes, the more convinced I am that it is a mistake to take any running back in the first round. Certainly this year there are no prospects at the elite level that would justify a first round selection.

There are always good running backs to be found on the second day of the draft. And the running back that best fits a team has more to do with the style they’re seeking than any inherent edge in talent. So while I have these players ranked below in order of how I see their abilities, I don’t think it would necessarily be a mistake for one of them to jump higher up the list, if their specific skills fit what the team that selects them is looking for.

JK Dobbins, Ohio State

 

Of all the backs I studied, Dobbins is the only one who I can really see thriving in just about any situation. He isn’t the biggest back, or the fastest back, or the shiftiest back, but he is the most versatile, and that bumps him to the top of my list. He has the vision and the range to hit cutback lanes in zone. He has the speed to get to the edge and break away for big gains. And he has the power to grind yards between the tackles, hitting the hole with speed and determination.

I don’t mean to give the impression that Dobbins is limited physically. He can do everything at an above average level. He’ll be caught from behind sometimes when he breaks into the open, but he also does pull away from linebackers and slower defensive backs. His lower body is thick and powerful, and tacklers will slide off of him if they don’t hit him head on (and even sometimes when they do). And every now and then he busts out a move in open space that can leave a defender broken in his wake.

The one part of Dobbins’s game that he really needs to work on—and the one thing that separates him from being a truly elite prospect—is in the passing attack. He’s a functional route runner out of the backfield, but he doesn’t do anything truly special, and he struggles some converting a short catch into big yardage. He makes all the right decisions in pass protection, but he can be physically overwhelmed by hard charging rushers. That seems like a fairly typical summary of Dobbins. He is one of the smartest backs I’ve scouted, making the correct read on every single play, but he lacks the sheer physical dominance that players like Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley have brought, which is why it’s better off to wait to select him until the second day of the draft.

D’Andre Swift, Georgia

There is probably no player in this draft more aptly named than Swift. His greatest asset is his speed, and not just his ability to break away when he reaches the second level. His burst off every step is exceptional, and he uses this to attack the defense straight ahead. He doesn’t waste time dancing in the backfield or bouncing to the edge, though he is occasionally able to find a good cutback lane behind the line of scrimmage. Mostly he just runs straight forward, getting to the defensive second level before they even know he's coming.

If you give Swift space, he is lethal. The issues come when he doesn’t have space. He isn’t the sort of back who is going to create a lot on his own. He can make some nice sharp cuts on the second level to ruin pursuit angles, but he doesn’t have the shiftiness to make people miss in space. He usually goes down at initial contact, though he occasionally has the strength to drag forward for an extra yard or two. If things are plugged up in the middle, he’ll just grimly drive ahead, avoiding negative plays but rarely breaking any big ones.

Swift is a good piece to plug into a talented offense, but he’s not a player you can build around on his own. He offers only occasional contributions as a receiver, but he is solid in pass protection, giving the quarterback time to find other players down the field. He’ll likely have some years of big production in the NFL, when the line ahead of him clears the way and lets him hit the second level at full speed. And he’ll likely have some majorly disappointing seasons as well, when he has to fight for every yard and his limited versatility is exposed.

Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin

I feel a little bad for Taylor. In another era he very easily could have been a top ten selection. After all, they really don’t make human beings who weight 226 pounds and run a 4.39 forty yard dash. On the field he is exactly the player his numbers make him out to be. He is a downhill runner with explosive speed on the second level, and power to blast through tacklers for extra yards. In a system that keeps things tight, asks the quarterback to play from under center, and is happy putting out multiple tight ends and fullbacks, Taylor would be a perfect fit.

Anything other than that, there are going to be issues. Taylor’s change of direction is among the worst in the class, both when it comes to making people miss in space and switching to a different hole in the backfield. His feet stop every time he tries to make a cut, and even if he spots a hole on the backside of a play, he doesn’t always have the quickness to reach it. He cannot play in any sort of zone rushing attack, which greatly limits his use for a large number of teams in the league.

So what do you do with a prospect like this? Maybe it’s my own bias against this sort of offensive system, but I don’t think I would take him until the third round. He does offer some good things in the passing game, running sharp routes out of the backfield (though he’s bad in pass protection, and I have concerns about his catching ability). He’s not completely useless in a more modern NFL offense, but having him as a primary rusher greatly limits what you can do. A team may jump on him thinking he’s a perfect fit for their scheme now, but are they willing to commit to that scheme four or five years down the road?

Cam Akers, Florida State

Akers is tough to break down because, of all the backs I looked at, he was the only one who I would say had an actively bad offensive line. In college he faced a nearly unrelenting stream of unblocked defenders in his face, and it’s hard for any back to be productive in these circumstances. From these plays the most I can really say is that Akers does a good job of taking what is available and avoiding negative plays, but also that he isn’t the sort of back to create big gains from nothing.

Looking at the rare plays where he actually had space to work with, there’s some stuff to like. He has tremendous burst up the field, and when he gets going in space he moves faster than anyone else around him. Get him to the second level, and he can break free all the way to the endzone. He demonstrates good patience to let his blocks develop, though he doesn’t always make the correct reads in the end. And even when he does spot a lane opening up, he doesn’t always have the range to cut across the grain and reach it.

Akers will be a useful back as part of a rotation, and that’s worth a third round selection. But he has a lot to clean up if he’s ever going to receive a majority of the playing time. He’s all over the place in pass protection, alternating nice sticks with some ugly misses (partially this can be blamed on his offensive line as well, since he never had any idea where to expect a pass rusher would break through). As a receiver he is capable of taking a dumpoff for a big play when he gets out in space. But he isn’t the sort of talent who is going to present consistent matchup problems for a defense, in either phase of the game.

Zack Moss, Utah

Of all the running backs I looked at, Moss is the one I would least want to tackle. Others would have no problem breaking my ankles in space, but Moss would cause genuine pain, and he would enjoy it too. He’s not the sort who will make people miss without touching him, or even juke enough to avoid a direct shot. He takes a lot of contact, and he dishes out a lot too, bouncing off defenders through the middle of the defense for every yard he could conceivably fight for.

There are clear limitations for Moss that would make me reluctant to take him before the fourth round. He is faster on the field than his 4.65 forty time would suggest, but his speed still isn’t much to look at. He is strictly a between the tackles runner, and while he can occasionally create some big plays when things break down, mostly he’s just going to slam into a lane and push linebackers forward for middling gains.

Moss is another runner who I would enjoy having on my team only if I had another quality back to mix things up with. He does plenty of little stuff well. He’s strong in pass protection, and he’s only going to get better as the mental part of this catches up with his physical ability. And while he doesn’t do much as a route runner, he is a smooth and comfortable catcher of the football, easily transitioning from receiver to ball carrier. And if you can get him in space against defensive backs, he’s simply fun to watch, as he batters his way through smaller bodies until their combined weight can drag him down.

Eno Benjamin, Arizona State

Benjamin is pretty much the anti-Moss. The fact that I have them listed in this order is more that I wrote up Moss first than any statement about the relative quality of the two of them. This is the classic case where it’s all about stylistic preference. Do you want the between the tackles grinder like Moss, or the prototypical third-down scat-back like Benjamin?

Benjamin is small and quick and at his best working with a lot of space around him. He makes some stunning jump cuts that leave defenders floundering behind him, and once he gets moving he has the burst to accelerate past the defense. And he does have some fight in him once he takes contact, but more often than not a single arm is enough to bring him down.

The value here all depends on how you use Benjamin. If you try to make him the heart of your offense, slamming him between the tackles 20+ times a game, you’re going to have a bad time. If you rotate him in as a change of pace in passing situations, he can be a headache for a defensive coordinator to try to contain. He still has some work to do as a receiver and a pass protector, but he shows flashes in both areas that suggest he can become truly elite. He’s the sort who will pick up a couple of key third down conversions in every game, and that has value even if I doubt he will ever be more than that.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU

Edwards-Helaire is one of the most unique backs I’ve studied, and I’m not sure I mean that as a compliment. Running backs is a position where you really just want someone you can plug into your existing structure, especially when you’re drafting that player in the middle rounds. You don’t want someone you have to scheme around, and I’m worried that Edwards-Helaire might be that kind of player.

Edwards-Helaire isn’t big, but he’s weirdly thick at 5-7 and 207 pounds. He isn’t fast, and he isn’t agile, but he tested extremely well in both the vertical and the broad jumps. From that you would expect him to have good burst, but this never shows up on the field. He can reach decent top speeds, but it always takes him a while to work up to it, and if he tries to change direction at any point he basically has to start all over again. He has a very low center of gravity, and he bounces and spins off tackles like he's inside a pinball machine. But if he sees someone coming at him square he has a tendency to stop his feet, which makes him very ineffective in short yardage.

The weirdest thing about Edwards-Helaire is what he can bring in the passing game. He’s a mess in pass protection, but if you send him out as a receiver, he runs some incredible routes. He’s very deceptive as a route runner, and he knows how to work to open space. And the angles generated when he gets the ball already on the second level make it extremely hard to get a direct hit on him, leading him to pick up a lot of extra yards that otherwise don’t look like they’re there.

So what do you do with a player like this? I really have no idea. There’s a decent chance he goes above a couple of the players listed higher to a team that is intrigued by what they think they can draw up for him, and that might not even be a mistake. But me personally, I’d rather take one of the options with a clear established role than gamble on a player who could be a gadget nightmare in a very narrow set of circumstances, and completely ineffective in many others.