2018 Playoff Preview: AFC

On Thursday I took you through the teams left alive in the NFC, taking a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each playoff representative. Today I will be doing the same for the AFC. We know these teams well by now, and we know where they excel and where they struggle. But often it is the other pieces that make the difference, the quieter strengths that allow them to differentiate from the other top teams they find themselves facing in the postseason.

Knasas City Chiefs

Strongest Point – Vertical Attack

The Chiefs excel at pretty much everything on offense, but what really makes them terrifying is their ability to attack down the field. Patrick Mahomes has the best arm I have ever seen on a football field, and he can hit any spot from any platform at any moment. With the blazing fast Tyreek Hill on the outside and the almost unstoppable Travis Kelce working the middle of the field, he has plenty of weapons to justify taking several deep shots a game. This offense is hard enough to contain underneath, and even when a defense manages to do this, it only takes one play for the Chiefs to break things wide open.

Weak Spot – Run Defense

You can’t stop Kansas City’s offense, but you can keep them off the field. The most effective strategy so far this year for keeping their scoring in check is to shorten the game, to execute long, monotonous scoring drives by feeding the running game. The Ravens and the Chargers both held Kansas City under 30 points in the final month of the season thanks to their commitment to the running game, and if a team can stay within striking distance early on they have the ability to generate consistent movement on the ground. The Chiefs ranked dead last in defensive DVOA against the run, and it was only their explosive offense that prevented them from being gashed on the field every single week.

Secret Strength – Pass Rush

Chris Jones got most of the attention on this defensive front this season, and for good reason. He finished the year with 15.5 sacks, a career high bolstered by an NFL record 11 straight games with a sack down the stretch of the season. He bounces all along the defensive front and is capable of rushing from both the interior and the edge, winning through power, speed, and technique with enough frequency that you can’t really shut him down.

Jones is the best pass rusher the Chiefs have, but this is not a one dimensional attack. Justin Houston isn’t the dominant force he used to be, but he got healthier as the season went along, producing six sacks over his final four games. Dee Ford turned it on as well, collecting a career high 13 sacks as a speed rusher coming off the edge. Kansas City is going to get after the quarterback, and all they need to do is produce a couple negative plays from the opposing offense, trusting that a few ruined drives will be enough to let their explosive offense pull away.

New England Patriots

Strongest Point – Coaching

The Patriots have been great for nearly twenty years now, and while most of the credit goes reasonably to Tom Brady, we should acknowledge the role that adaptability plays in New England’s success. In the beginning they were a defense first team with a savvy quarterback who avoided big mistakes and came through in the clutch. Then they were an explosive passing attack, one of the first teams to widely adopt a spread offensive system. They’ve since evolved into a quick hitting passing game that utilizes a collection of versatile weapons to hit defenses in more ways than they can prepare for. The common thread? Bill Belichick, and his incredible ability to teach players whatever techniques and schemes he feels the need for on a given Sunday. The Patriots don’t have the best roster in the playoffs, but they have the best coach, and that might be enough to make up the difference.

Weak Spot – Wide Receiver

New England has a wide assortment of gadget weapons at their disposal. They have James White, an effective running back who is even better snagging balls out of the backfield. They have Cordarrelle Patterson, an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands who has bounced between receiver and running back this year. They have old stalwarts Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, slowing down but primed for a playoff push. And outside of that? Not much, after the suspension of Josh Gordon. New England doesn’t have a single player it can line up on the outside and trust to beat man coverage, and that could be a disaster against some of the pass rushes they will face in the playoffs. Brady doesn’t move well under pressure, and his only real recourse is to get the ball immediately out of his hands, a serious challenge if he cannot count on his receivers to win off the snap of the ball.

Secret Strength – Secondary

New England seems to have a consistent pattern worked out. Every year they remake their defense into something new, letting crucial pieces walk away to be replaced by journeyman veterans and unproven youngsters. And every year their defense struggles out of the gate, only to pull it together as the season reaches its conclusion. This year it has happened in the back end, with a secondary that has emerged as a legitimate weapon headed into the postseason.

If you looked at a depth chart and saw names like Jason McCourtey and JC Jackson, I wouldn’t expect you to be particularly impressed. But over the past month they have performed at an insanely high level. They held the explosive Steelers passing attack to 17 points, and then they shut down a red hot Sam Darnold in the final week of the season. Obviously the stars of Devin McCourtey and Stephon Gilmore continue to shine bright, but the depth of this secondary is what has really made it come alive down the home stretch, and it leaves them in a great position to feel confident as they face down some of the best offenses in the league.

Houston Texans

Strongest Point – Defensive Line

It really isn’t fair that this team has both JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. After a couple years lost to injury, Watt has returned to his former level of dominance, adding another All-Pro season to what was already a Hall of Fame career. And in the time he was away, Clowney developed into one of the best all around edge defenders in the league. He isn’t a pure pass rusher like some other players, and his mediocre sack totals reflect that. But he is a nightmare against the run, an effective player dropping into coverage, and an athlete that causes problems with whoever tries to block him.

Weak Spot – Offensive Line

The Texans certainly don’t regret the decision to move up and select Deshaun Watson, but I have a feeling he personally isn’t thrilled by what they had to give up to get him. The extra first round pick they spent to move up (as well as the second rounder they sacrificed to get rid of Brock Osweiler) meant there was essentially nothing they could do to improve their offensive line this year, and it absolutely showed. Watson spent most of the season running for his life, and if there is any way to contain this explosive passing attack, it is by going after the line.

Secret Strength – Playmaking Middle of the Defense

It’s difficult to find a real secret strength on this team. The Texans are not balanced, and they are not subtle. They are going to get after you on defense with Watt and Clowney, and they are going to attack you on offense with Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. But they have put together a quietly strong middle of the defense, through some excellent middle round draft picks and a key free agent signing.

The best known player in this group is Tyrann Mathieu, the former Cardinal who has been up and down in a career riddled with injuries. He has fit in perfectly with this Texans defense as a playmaking safety and slot defender who is free to play aggressively and attack constantly downhill. He is helped on the back end by rookie Justin Reid, a rangy deep cover safety with excellent ball skills who produced three interceptions this year. And at linebacker they have a solid duo that complements each other perfectly, with the hard hitting style of Benardrick McKinney stuffing up the middle to give freedom to the rangy cover specialist Zach Cunningham.

Baltimore Ravens

Strongest Point – Pass Defense

After a couple years of fits and starts, everything seemed to come together for Baltimore on defense. Marlon Humphrey is an emerging star, and within a year or two you will begin to hear his name regularly mentioned among the top cornerbacks in the league. Jimmy Smith is still excellent whenever he can find his way onto the field, and Brandon Carr provides a solid veteran presence in the slot. While the Ravens lack any single elite pass rusher, the strength on the back end allows them to play aggressive with their defensive front, attacking with a wide variety of pressure packages that usually manage to confuse the offense and corral the quarterback.

Weak Spot – Pass Offense

Baltimore has still been functional in the passing game since moving to Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, but that is entirely due to their running game. Defenses are selling out 100% to try to contain Jackson as a runner, which opens opportunities down the field in a play action passing attack. This works as long as teams still feel the run is a threat, but if the Ravens fall behind in a game they are going to be in trouble. So far Jackson hasn’t proven he can just drop back and throw against an NFL defense, and if he finds himself in a situation where he can’t lean on the running game as a crutch, he has shown no indication that he can lead a functional NFL passing offense.

Secret Strength – Unique Running Game

Baltimore’s offense is the ultimate realization of the Wildcat package that was introduced to the NFL ten years ago. They have taken everything teams have learned over the past decade and integrated it into a shotgun running attack, led by the best athlete to ever serve in this role. Jackson hasn’t been as aggressive a runner in the NFL as he was in college, but he is still first and foremost a run threat on every play. His ability to stretch the field as a passer better than the normal running backs and wide receivers inserted into a Wildcat package certainly opens things up, but in the end it is his rushing ability that terrifies defenses.

This scheme is a nightmare to defend. Basic rushing defense relies on discipline and a numbers game, bringing more defenders into the picture than an offense could conceivably block. On a normal running play the quarterback does nothing more than hand off the ball, eliminating a potential blocker and giving the defense a numerical advantage. Forcing defenses to account for Jackson essentially uses him as a blocker, changing the calculations of the scheme a defense needs to run. It is a difficult situation, and one that is unfamiliar to most NFL defenses, giving the Ravens the edge as they force the opposing team to adjust to this unique and frustrating scheme.

Los Angeles Chargers

Strongest Point – Passing Attack

We all knew (or at least had faith) that it would happen eventually, and this year it finally clicked for the Chargers. Keenan Allen stayed healthy. Mike Williams contributed. Antonio Gates continued to plod his way down the field. And Philip Rivers stood in the center of it all, distributing the ball with the same mad fury as ever, now with talent on the receiving end to complement his skills. And if they do in fact get Hunter Henry back in the postseason, their passing attack will only pick up, perhaps even enough to match some of the high flying offenses above them.

Weak Spot – Offensive Line

It’s hard to find a real weakness on this team. They are probably the most complete roster from top to bottom of any of the playoff teams, the only one to rank in the top quartile in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Their linebackers aren’t great, and they are a bit banged up at running back. But their biggest woes remain on the offensive line. They’ve invested high draft picks repeatedly in recent years, and they haven’t paid off, with Dan Feeney struggling and Forrest Lamp for some reason not seeing the field. Most of the time Rivers is quick enough getting the ball out to mitigate the damage, but against aggressive pass rushes this line is vulnerable to total collapses, like the one that cost them the game against the Ravens three weeks ago.

Secret Strength - Secondary

The Chargers boast the most fascinating array of playmakers in their secondary that I can ever recall a single team assembling. There’s Casey Hayward, a veteran cornerback who has been putting in consistently strong work for years now without receiving much acclaim. There’s All-Pro nickel back Desmond King, a quick twitch athlete who swallows receivers in the slot. And then there’s Derwin James, a playmaker who really can't be defined by any single position.

This secondary has so much talent and so much versatility, and there really isn’t anything they can’t do. Their players can rotate to any position they need in coverage, bouncing between the slot and the boundary depending on what matchups they like. They are aggressive against the run, and they match up well against tight ends and backs out of the backfield. They are a dream scenario for a defensive coordinator, and a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks.

Indianapolis Colts

Strongest Point – Andrew Luck

He was gone for a long time, but it was well worth the wait. After taking a couple weeks to knock the rust off, Luck has returned to his position as one of the premier quarterbacks in the league, and he carried the Colts on his back to this playoff spot. He’s changed his style since his return from injury, taking a lot less contact and fewer chances down the field. It has made him less exciting, but it has probably made him a more consistent quarterback, capable of sustained excellence rather than the sporadic bursts of brilliance we saw during his early years in the league.

Weak Spot – Offensive Weapons

It’s a good thing they have Luck, because otherwise I’m not sure how this offense would score points. TY Hilton is still a quality receiver, but he has his limitations, and Indianapolis still hasn’t found anyone to fill the gaps in their offense. They turned Eric Ebron into a viable red zone threat because they needed someone down there, and their backfield is a rotation of late round running backs who are only still around because their rookie contracts are cheap. Realistically the Colts should be looking ahead to the offseason, when they have the cap room to actually do some work on fixing this roster. But for now Luck is enough to elevate the mediocre talent they have, and it might be enough to get them a victory or two before they inevitably flame out.

Secret Strength – Offensive Line

I could just as easily write about the success they’ve found this year on defense, but in truth I’m not really sure what’s working on that side of the ball, outside of rookie linebacker Darius Leonard. It could all easily fall apart in any given week, so I’ll stick to a strength I’m confident is going to hang around. After years of investing high draft picks into the offensive line, things are finally paying off for Indianapolis, giving Luck for the first time in his career some semblance of real protection in front of him.

I feel great for Luck, but I might feel even better for left tackle Anthony Castonzo. After years toiling as the one functional piece on an otherwise abysmal unit, he finally has some real talent alongside him. That talent is most obvious in the form of All-Pro rookie Quenton Nelson, but he is far from alone among the young talent on this line. Former first round pick Ryan Kelly is living up to his billing, and second round rookie Braden Smith is a revelation as well. This line is still very young, but they are already one of the best in the league, and this playoff game will give them a chance to show off what they’re capable of for the entire league to see.

2018 Playoff Preview: NFC

It’s playoff time. Twenty teams have been eliminated, and over the next month we’ll cross off eleven more until we get a champion. I’ll admit that I’m a little less excited than normal, as this is only the second time in the past ten years that at least one of the two teams I follow most closely is not represented (and it doesn’t help that they were both eliminated on the final day of the season). But I am a dedicated and professional football analyst, so I will fight on through my disappointment.

We’ve followed these teams for four months now, and we have a pretty good idea of what we’re dealing with. We know their strongest points, and the weaknesses that could doom them. I’ll highlight both of these for each team, but I’ll also try to draw attention to a more subtle strength, something that could make all the difference when two proven and excellent teams collide.

Today I will start with the NFC.

New Orleans Saints

Strongest Point – Drew Brees

I shouldn’t have to say much more about this. Brees has put together a phenomenal season, making a strong case for MVP (as has Patrick Mahomes, which I’ll probably touch on in the next few weeks). He is a model of efficiency, shattering his own record for completion percentage and very rarely putting the ball anywhere other than exactly where it needs to go. He is the rare quarterback who is equally precise on every level of the field, and even if a team takes away his weapons underneath he can torch the opposition launching deep passes. There really isn’t a good way to attack Brees, and any team that faces the Saints will likely have to just accept that he is going to get his.

Weak Spot – Perimeter Weapons

The Saints have some excellent weapons on offense. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are probably the best running back tandem in the league. Michael Thomas is off to one of the best three year stretches to start a career in NFL history. And after that…things are a little bare. These top pieces are usually enough to keep the offense flowing, as they attack very different parts of the field, and Brees’s elite accuracy can fit ball into passing lanes even when lesser receivers can’t create separation. But if a defense has both an elite cornerback capable of challenging Thomas and an athletic linebacker/safety core that can contain the running backs in the passing game, it is going to place an incredible burden on the least proven parts of this roster.

Secret Strength – Pass Rush

It took a while for the Saints to get this part of their defense going this year. Cam Jordan is as elite as ever, but he’s more of an interior player who doesn’t consistently challenge tackles around the edge. His impact can be mitigated, but only when the offensive line doesn’t have other things to worry about. And over the second half of the season the defense came alive as those other pieces started to click.

The most obvious of these pieces is rookie Marcus Davenport, who the Saints used two first round picks to move up and select in last year’s draft. He’s been in and out of the lineup with injuries this year, but he’s finally healthy, and he brings explosive athleticism on the edge that this team is otherwise lacking. But the biggest difference maker has been defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. After a tough first couple years in the league he has showed the explosive burst and range that made him a first round pick. With him and Jordan on the inside and Davenport racing around the edge, offensive lines suddenly have to defend the attack from all angles.

Los Angeles Rams

Strongest Point – Offense

The Rams have the most balanced attack of all the top offenses in the NFL. They don’t have the explosive plays of Kansas City or the star power of New Orleans, but their ability to grind out consistent yardage through both the run and the pass makes them difficult for even an elite defense to shut down. Their offense hit a few bumps down the stretch, but it looks like it’s got its rhythm back, and I would assume Sean McVay has a few more wrinkles ready for the postseason. This offense is built on misdirection, and I expect they will have a few more down the field shots available to them when they start exploiting teams trying to go after their tendencies.

Weak Spot – Linebackers

The place to attack the Rams defense is right in the middle. Start by forcing their linebackers to run sideline to sideline, chasing after screen passes and quick hitting arrow routes. Then, once they are off balance, hit them right in the mouth. Los Angeles built a couple of the most imposing defensive front and back fours in the league this year, but they did it at the expense of the middle, trotting out sub replacement level athletes and hoping the rest of the defense could cover for them. Most of the time it has worked out, but several of the teams in the postseason present particularly poor matchups for them, and against someone like New Orleans or New England this hole in their defense could be their undoing.

Secret Strength – Playmaking Defense

Obviously we need to at least acknowledge Aaron Donald. We can debate relative value compared to quarterbacks, but no one at any position in the league outperforms his peers like Donald. He paced the field in both pressures and sacks despite being double teamed on nearly every snap, and play in and play out he changes the way offenses have to play the Rams. But what truly makes him fun to watch are the plays that he single handedly demolishes, where he seems to teleport into the backfield before anyone on offense even realizes what is happening.

This ability to ruin a drive in a single moment is a common thread throughout the Rams defense. Marcus Peters has had a disappointing season, but he remains the league’s preeminent ball hawk. Aqib Talib is second among all active players in career interceptions, and with the disruptive ability of the players up front they have the ability to force even the best quarterbacks into mistakes. This was the key to their victory over the Chiefs earlier this season. In a high scoring game, each possession becomes even more crucial than normal, and most of the top teams in the league will likely gain ten yards if given three plays. These splash moments are often the difference makers in a tight contest, and the Rams will need several such moments to make a run to the Super Bowl.

Chicago Bears

Strongest Point – Front Seven

The arrival of Kahlil Mack has done more than just provide the Bears with a superstar. It has made everyone aware of the superstar already there. Mack is a nightmare with few equals in the NFL, but Akiem Hicks is nearly as impossible to block, and together they make things just about impossible for opposing offensive lines. Both players excel against the run and the pass, attacking in different ways that allow the Bears to use a variety of clever blitzes and stunts. This opens things up for the other talented athletes along their front, players like Leonard Floyd and Roquan Smith who are perfectly capable players that perform as top playmakers thanks to the stars beside them.

Weak Spot – Secondary

The Bears were always going to be a good defense this year, and they certainly took a step forward with the addition of Mack. But what really put them over the top was the play of their back four, specifically their ability to generate turnovers. Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara on the outside produced 10 interceptions combined, and safety Eddie Jackson added six more while returning two of these for touchdowns. But interceptions are a bit unreliable, and the talent on the back end doesn’t match the production. With Jackson possibly still limited by a late season ankle injury, and finding themselves potentially facing teams with offensive lines capable of slowing down their front seven, more pressure is going to be placed on the cornerbacks to actually stick with receivers in coverage, rather than making just one or two plays a game.

Secret Strength – Quarterback Mobility

The biggest questionmark on this team is still their quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky has been all over the place in his second season, at times looking like an emerging star and at others a major liability. I don’t expect him to suddenly find consistency in the playoffs, and he doesn’t necessarily have to. With this defense the Bears can afford a few stalled possessions, as long as they get a handful of plays throughout the game from their young passer.

Trubisky is capable of delivering those plays. Like many in the middle class of quarterbacks around the league his greatest weakness is pressure, struggling to identify open receivers when rushers come at him untouched. For some like Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco, this sinks their ability to function if they don’t have a top tier offensive line. But Trubisky’s athleticism is a step above these other quarterbacks, and even when he faces pressure he has the ability to make it miss and get out of the pocket. Whether improvising to find an open receiver downfield or taking off with the ball himself, he gives the Bears a few opportunities each game to extend drives that otherwise would have failed.

Dallas Cowboys

Strongest Point – Rushing Attack

A lot of things have changed for the Cowboys in the two years since their last visit to the playoffs, but this part remains the same. They still want to run their offense through their rushing attack, feeding Ezekiel Elliott behind an offensive line loaded with talent. They added a big play weapon in Amari Cooper, and they lost the anchor point of their offensive line when Travis Frederick was forced to miss the season, but they still build everything on their offense around the running game. When it’s working, they are passable enough to win low scoring games. When it’s not, they don’t have a prayer.

Weak Spot – Passing Attack

As much as Cooper’s arrival has buoyed them, it really has just moved their passing game from awful to below average. Cooper wasn’t a good receiver in Oakland, and while he is certainly playing better in Dallas, he has benefited a great deal by comparison to the players he has replaced. Their second leading receiver is Cole Beasley, and after that it falls off massively to players like Michael Gallup and Blake Jarwin. As long as they can remain balanced on offense, teams won’t be able to completely erase both Elliott and Cooper. But if they fall behind and are forced to switch to a pass first approach, they will have no hope of moving the football.

Secret Strength - Linebackers

The Cooper trade stands out as a glaring inflection point on Dallas’s season, but the arrival of Leighton Vander Esch into a starting role is a much bigger factor. In the eleven games he started this year the Cowboys have only lost twice, while in the five he came off the bench they were 1-4. Vander Esch has been a revelation in the heart of this defense, stacking up against the run while also flying sideline to sideline. He has generated turnovers and elevated everyone around him, finally giving them a replacement in the middle for the oft injured Sean Lee.

Vander Esch is getting all the hype as the rookie first round pick, but he probably isn’t even the best linebacker on the team. That would be Jaylon Smith, who in his third year has finally returned to NFL shape. He was the best player in the 2016 draft before a brutal knee injury knocked him into the second round, and even though it’s likely he will never be fully back to what he was in college, simply reaching 80% of that has made him one of the best linebackers in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks

Strongest Point – Rushing Attack

Yes, the first NFC Wild Card Game is going to be a bit of a throwback, ground dominated game. The Seahawks ran the ball more than any team in the league, and they actually did it well after years being tanked by poor offensive line play. Chris Carson finished fifth in the league in rushing yards, Rashaad Penny provides a good change of pace off the bench, and Russell Wilson is always dangerous with his legs, even if he has used them less frequently this year than in the past. If they get a lead, they are content and capable of grinding out the clock on the ground.

Weak Spot – Defense

It’s hard to find a clear defined weak point on Seattle’s roster. They don’t really excel in any one area, and that will ultimately lead to their downfall, but they don’t have glaring holes either. They just have a lot of okay pieces in okay situations, most tellingly on their defense. After losing most of the core that made them so elite over the past decade, they have put basically their entire defense on the shoulders of Bobby Wagner, and while he is truly a special player capable of elevating the play of everyone around him, there is only so much he can do. This is a problem, because with Seattle’s ball controlling run style they are going to need their defense to hold down the fort to keep them in advantageous situations where they can continue to focus on running the football.

Secret Strength – Deep Passing

The passing game isn’t great for Seattle, except in one key area. They are one of the best teams in the league at attacking down the field, and almost all the credit deserves to go to Wilson. He throws an absolutely gorgeous deep ball that hangs forever in the air and comes down in a position where the defense can’t possibly make a play on it, and if there’s even a little bit of separation his receiver will win a big play.

This hasn’t been a part of their arsenal in recent years because they haven’t been able to keep him upright long enough for the receivers to get open down the sidelines. And while their offensive line is still vulnerable to occasional lapses, they have stabilized enough to allow Seattle a few deep shots a game. The Seahawks are outmatched by most of the top teams in the league, but if they can slow things down, control the game on the ground, and make a couple big plays down the field, they can score an upset or two.

Philadelphia Eagles

Strongest Point – Pass Rush

They haven’t gotten as much attention because the team has struggled, but the defensive front this year is every bit as good as they were a year ago, possibly better. Fletcher Cox is still a terror in the middle, and even though the sacks haven’t been there like they were a year ago for Brandon Graham, he still produces pressure at a rate near the top of the league. Offseason addition Michael Bennett has been phenomenal as well, giving them the same ability they had a year ago to rotate bodies and produce nonstop pressure on the quarterback.

Weak Spot - Secondary

The Eagles have to produce pressure, because if they don’t they are going to be torn to pieces on the back end. With Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills, and Rodney McLeod all on injured reserve, they are stuck playing a secondary that includes Rasul Douglas, Sidney Jones, Corey Graham, and Avonte Maddox. Nearly every quarterback left alive is capable of absolutely shredding this secondary if given time, and a few stand behind offensive lines capable of providing that to them.

Secret Strength – Nick Foles

This isn’t so much a strength as it is a wild card. Last year most people dismissed the Eagles because they were forced to turn to a backup quarterback, and Foles’s performance in the final weeks of the regular season didn’t help matters. He was equally terrible in their Divisional Round victory over the Falcons, before turning it on and torching the Vikings and the Patriots.

He obviously isn’t a secret this year, but people are still not sure what to make of him. It’s understandably difficult, because who he is varies depending on the day. A year ago as a top seed with a complete roster, this volatility was reasonably seen as a liability. But this year they are at the bottom of the NFC, and their only hope is to find some magic somewhere. Foles is capable of producing this magic. He’s also capable of sinking this team’s hope from the first snap of the game. We won’t know the answer until Sunday afternoon.