We’ve almost made it. Two days
from now the NFL season will kick off with the Falcons battling the Eagles.
Three days after that, most of the rest of the league will get the season under
way. So I guess now would be the time to get my official predictions in, before
we get too far and everything I expected to happen falls to pieces in front of
me.
I’ve split my preview into two
shorter pieces this year. I’ll start with a division by division prediction of
each team’s record, including my playoff representatives. Tomorrow I’ll be back
with my prediction for the award races, and of course I’ll throw in my Super
Bowl prediction as well.
If you’re curious, you can check
out more details for each team by clicking the links below. (And if you’re
extra curious, you can look back to my preview last year to confirm that this
is the only section I copied word for word. This is my fifth year doing this,
so at this point why even pretend I’m not being incredibly repetitive?)
NFC
NFC South
Atlanta
Falcons: 13-3
New Orleans
Saints: 11-5
Carolina
Panthers: 7-9
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers: 5-11
The two teams at the top of this
division are arguably the two most stacked in the league. From the Hall of Fame
quarterbacks, to the big bodied top ten receivers, to the young talent flowing
through their defense, the Saints and the Falcons are almost mirror images of
each other. The two of them will run away with the division, and ultimately it
will come down to the head to head matchups. Atlanta’s defensive stars have a
couple more years under their belts, which is what will make the difference in
the end, letting them keep steady even when they hit an occasional bump in the
road. The Saints will still have no trouble grabbing a Wild Card spot, and from
there they have the talent for a deep playoff run.
The Panthers made the playoffs a
year ago, but I just can’t see them repeating. Their offensive line is a total
mess, and the youth movement at their offensive skill positions has yet to
produce any consistent stars. They made a smart move trying to change up this
offense this offseason, but they made a less smart move turning to Norv Turner
to do so. He will make the same mistakes as their last coordinator, putting far
too much on the arm of Cam Newton. The defense that was dominant a few years
ago has slowly broken down, and I feel like this year is going to look more
like 2016 than 2015 or 2017 in Carolina.
NFC West
Los
Angeles Rams: 12-4
Seattle
Seahawks: 9-7
San Francisco
49ers: 8-8
Arizona
Cardinals: 3-13
Everyone is expecting this to be
the year that the 49ers leap forward, but I still think they need some more
seasoning before they’re ready to go. The final five games of 2017 went as
perfect as possible for Jimmy Garoppolo, and even if he is the quarterback
they’re paying him to be, there are going to be a few rough patches as he
settles into the NFL. The talent around him on offense is still extremely
subpar, and it only got worse with the torn ACL that will sideline Jerick
McKinnon for the season.
The Rams are loading up for a run,
and with the talent they have it would be a disappointment if they didn’t coast
to the postseason. They’ll fight for, and eventually earn, a first round bye,
and that’s when the real season starts. Anything less than a Super Bowl
appearance this year will be a disappointment. This is the same position the
Seahawks found themselves in a couple years ago, and now they’re scrapping just
to reach the postseason again. I don’t think nine wins will get them there
however, and they are going to have to work hard to rebuild both sides of the
ball this coming offseason. The Cardinals are barely worth discussing. They
will be the worst team in the NFC, and they just have to hope they can get Josh
Rosen on the field and keep him in one piece.
NFC East
Philadelphia
Eagles: 11-5
Washington
Redskins: 7-9
Dallas
Cowboys: 6-10
New York
Giants: 5-11
Most of this division seems
pretty straightforward. The Redskins will be competitive in most of their
games, but they will likely lose at least as many as they win. The Eagles are
the class of the NFC, and I don’t see a post-Super Bowl collapse coming for
them. Things may not go as smooth as they did a year ago, but their
defense is still dominating enough to win them games on its own, and once
Carson Wentz gets back in the lineup and knocks the rust off their offense
should be at least serviceable.
There might be a little more
uncertainty to Dallas, but with the various health issues they’re facing along
the offensive line I can’t see much upside here. Dak Prescott is still a good
quarterback, but he showed this year he can’t carry this team on his own, and
that’s what he’s going to have to do if they’re going to end up with a winning
record. The real source of potential is in New York. With the return of Odell
Beckham and the addition of Saquon Barkley, this offense could have an
explosive component that it was lacking a year ago. But I’m not sold on
Barkley, and I think this rebuilt offensive line will need at least half a year
to get its feet under it. The Giants might be able to finish the year strong,
but by then I think it will be too little and too late.
NFC North
Green
Bay Packers: 11-5
Minnesota
Vikings: 11-5
Detroit
Lions: 9-7
Chicago
Bears: 8-8
The battle between Green Bay and
Minnesota for this division was decided in mid-October last year when Anthony
Barr knocked Aaron Rodgers out and ended Green Bay’s
season. Assuming Rodgers stays healthy, I think it goes down to the wire this
year. The Vikings will struggle some as they adjust to the changes at
quarterback and offensive coordinator, and a number of breaks that went their
way last year won’t hold up (notably health on the defense, where the only time
missed due to injury by a starter was one game from Everson Griffen). This
battle will come down to the final week, and I think both teams finish with the
same record, with the Packers winning the tiebreaker through something like
record against common opponents.
The bigger questions are whether
the other two teams can jump up into this competition. Detroit has been feisty
for several years, but they always seem to fall just short, and it’s hard for
me to look at their team and think they are any different than they’ve been in
years past. All the good pieces are still there, but they haven’t supplemented
them with enough to make either their offense or their defense truly great. The
Bears are on the flip side of things, a team that has been bad for several
years running and is now going for an aggressive turnaround. With the
foundation of a very good defense already in place and improved weapons on the
offensive side of the ball, it all comes down to Mitch Trubisky. I think he is
capable of taking them to where they want to go, but in all likelihood they
will probably need to wait another year or two.
AFC
AFC South
Houston
Texans: 10-6
Jacksonville
Jaguars: 8-8
Tennessee
Titans: 7-9
Indianapolis
Colts: 6-10
Probably the most noticeable mark
here is the dropoff of the Jaguars. Last year they won ten games and made it
all the way to the AFC Championship Game, and most include them in the
conversation with the Patriots and the Steelers as the elites of the AFC. I
don’t see it. Their defense is still incredibly strong, but they won’t benefit
as much from turnover luck as they did a year ago. On the other side, they
won’t be able to keep Blake Bortles from shooting himself in the foot, and they
are going to struggle their way to eight wins. Of course, as you will see from
the records of the rest of the conference listed below, this is still enough
for them to snag the last Wild Card spot.
The rest of the division will go
about how everyone expects. The Texans will leap forward with the return to
health of Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt and should be able to comfortably win the
division, even if they aren’t yet ready to compete with the top teams in the
league. Tennessee could put up a fight, but I still think their team has too
many middle of the pack players to consistently control games. Maybe in a year
or two once talent like Corey Davis and Adoree Jackson really develop, but not
this year. The Colts will only be worth watching to see if Andrew Luck is back
to full health, because even if he is, I don’t see any way this team can
win more games than it loses even against an easy schedule.
AFC West
Los
Angeles Chargers: 11-5
Kansas
City Chiefs: 7-9
Oakland
Raiders: 5-11
Denver
Broncos: 5-11
I told myself I wouldn’t do it,
yet here I am again, picking the Chargers to run away with the AFC West. It’s
not just that I think the Chargers are good, though they are, with the best
pass rushing duo in the league, a very good secondary that will only be better
with the addition of Derwin James, and an offensive line that finally has the
potential to leap forward. It’s also that I have no faith in any of these other
teams. The Broncos are the same team that won only five games a year ago, just
with Case Keenum swapped in for Trevor Siemian (which I’m not convinced is an
improvement). The Raiders just traded away their only good defensive player and
will be starting a rookie project at left tackle to protect a quarterback who
is notoriously inept under pressure.
The only team that could really
push the Chargers is Kansas City. The talent on offense is certainly eye
popping, with Tyreek Hill to stretch the field, Travis Kelce flying over the
middle, Kareem Hunt working out of the backfield, and Sammy Watkins attacking
everywhere else. Their offensive line is good, and their defense will be at
least average. But in the end it will come down to Pat Mahomes, and I’m not
sure I can put any faith in him just yet. Even with the tutelage of Andy Reid,
he is too raw and too unpolished to outrace the Chargers. The Chiefs may be
able to snag a Wild Card spot, but in the end I think they will fall a game or
two short.
AFC East
New
England Patriots: 13-3
Miami
Dolphins: 7-9
New York
Jets: 7-9
Buffalo
Bills: 2-14
The Patriots are going to win
this division and get the top seed overall and will probably make the Super
Bowl. Because the world is bad and nothing ever changes.
The Bills are at the other end of
the spectrum. They have some nice things going on in their defensive backfield,
and I’m a bigger fan of Josh Allen than most people. But they have the worst
offensive line and worst receiving corps in the entire league, and I really
struggle to see how they are going to score any points. They will be in the
running for the first overall pick in the draft, and I think they pull it off.
The Dolphins and Jets will be
fighting for some spot in the middle. Neither team is good enough to pull off a
playoff run, but I don’t think either will bottom out. For the Jets this will
come as a sign of forward progress in the first year under Sam Darnold. For the
Dolphins that may spell the end of the Adam Gase and Ryan Tannehill eras. They
will face some hard choices if they don’t make the playoffs this year, which I
think is the most likely outcome.
AFC North
Pittsburgh
Steelers: 10-6
Baltimore
Ravens: 9-7
Cincinnati
Bengals: 7-9
Cleveland
Browns: 6-10
Pittsburgh is going to have a ougher time than they did a year ago. The rest of the division isn’t going to
push them any harder, and most of the trouble they face will be internal.
Antonio Brown has struggled with injuries during the preseason. Ben Roethlisberger
has been shaky over the past couple years. And no one knows when or if Le’Veon
Bell will join the team, still in the midst of his contract dispute. This defense is still
suffering from the loss of Ryan Shazier, and though they have invested a lot of
draft picks in young talent over the past few years, very few have shown
promising signs of developing into stars.
That said, they remain much more
talented than the other teams in the division. I expected the Browns to take a
big leap forward last year, and I was very, very wrong, so I’m being a bit more
cautious this year. There is definitely a bright future here, but I think it
will come with a different coaching staff. The Ravens and Bengals aren’t particularly good teams either,
but in the weak AFC I think Baltimore’s edge at coaching is enough to keep them
in the division and eventually claim a Wild Card spot. I don’t know if this
will come with Joe Flacco or Lamar Jackson playing quarterback, and I don’t
think it really matters. The Ravens have a very good defense and a top five
head coach, and that is enough to give them a chance to win most games.
