Rematch Weekend

This weekend in the Divisional Round, three of the four matchups we’ll see are rematches of games played earlier in the season. Rematches are a great deal of fun for nerds like me, people who love to see how each team’s strategies have evolved between the games. What does the losing team change to try to reverse the outcome, and how does the winning team try to preempt these new strategies? The chess game of football takes on a whole new dimension between teams that have seen each other before.

I went back and watched the games that took place earlier this season. Below I’ve broken them down, why one team won and the other didn’t. Based on the last game, I have tried to forecast what might happen this weekend. I’ve listed all the reasons the winning team should feel confident they can repeat their performance, as well as the reasons why the losing team can hope to turn it around.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

Week 13: Seattle beat New Orleans 34-7

The first contest between these two teams was a blowout on Monday Night Football, and it served as the best example of two of the most overblown narratives of the year: New Orleans’s struggles on the road and Seattle’s dominance at home. Since then we’ve seen Seattle lose to the Cardinals at home and New Orleans win a playoff game in Philadelphia. The narratives have lost their strength, but expect to hear plenty about them during this game.

What happened in this game went far beyond a home team beating a road team. The Saints’ offense was shut down by Seattle’s impressive pass defense, held under 200 yards of total offense. Seattle jumped to an early lead thanks to a couple long drives and a defensive touchdown. The score was 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and 27-7 at halftime. Seattle’s offense slowed down in the second half, but the Saints were not able to mount any sort of comeback.

Why it will end the same:

The first game was hyped as a matchup between the league’s best pass defense and one of the league’s best pass offenses, and Seattle showed that their pass defense was capable of shutting down New Orleans’s offense. It started up front with consistent pressure on Drew Brees in the pocket. This is one area where playing at home definitely helped. Because CenturyLink Field is designed to reflect crowd noise towards the playing field, it creates an incredibly loud environment that makes it challenging for the offense to operate. Opposing teams are forced to use a silent count, and that results in a slower start to the play than under normal circumstances. Both offense and defense have to wait until they see the ball snapped, giving pass rushers an extra second to get after the quarterback. The game against Seattle was the first time the Saints’ deficiencies along the offensive line became apparent, and they haven’t been able to fix them yet. Both St. Louis and Carolina tore their offensive line apart late in the season, and it would not be surprising if Seattle managed to do the same in this game.

Seattle’s offense managed to put up 34 points thanks to the brilliance of Russell Wilson. With both his legs and his arm Wilson carved apart the Saints’ defense, throwing for 310 yards and rushing for another 47. A number of his runs came on scrambles, but early in the game the Seahawks found success running the read option. The Saints’ outside linebackers crashed down hard after the running back, leaving one of their inside linebackers responsible for switching out and following the quarterback. This is a common approach to stopping the read option, and there was nothing wrong with their scheme that they could conceivably fix. The problem was that the Saints’ linebackers do not have the athleticism to chase down Wilson on the perimeter. When he kept the ball, he was able to outrun the linebackers to the edge and gain big yardage. Once Seattle had established a lead they stopped running this play to protect their quarterback, but in a tight game they will be able to exploit this weakness in New Orleans’s defense.

Why it will end differently:

The key to the first game was big plays. Seattle made them, and New Orleans didn’t. There was more than a little luck involved in this. A pass rusher forced a fumble by Brees, and the ball bounced right into the arms of Michael Bennett who returned it for a touchdown. The Seahawks scored later on a pass that deflected off one receiver into the hands of another. But beyond luck, there were several major opportunities New Orleans left on the field. Jimmy Graham dropped a couple catchable balls, and Corey White couldn’t hold on to an interception on a drive that eventually resulted in the Seahawks’ first offensive touchdown. If they make some of these early plays, they could have prevented Seattle from getting out to a big early lead. Had they been able to keep the game close, they could have done a better job building a run game to attack the weakness of the Seahawks’ defense. Instead they were forced to throw the ball to try to catch up, exactly what Seattle wanted them to do.

The key to slowing down the Seahawks’ offense is discipline, something the Saints were lacking the first time they played. Most of the damage done by Wilson happened when he escaped the pocket to his right, opportunities given to him by a pass rush that did not properly contain. When they held him in the pocket or forced him to run left, they were able to get enough pressure to disrupt his throws. This week I expect to see much more discipline from the edge rushers coming after Wilson. If they can limit him in the passing game, they can stop the Seahawks’ offense. Marshawn Lynch was ineffective in the first game behind an offensive line that showed no ability to get push on the Saints’ defensive front. That should not change this time around.

Offensively it all comes down to whether they can protect Brees. Seattle’s defense is known for their physical man coverage, but in the first game New Orleans was able to design formations and plays to force them into a great deal of zone. With the suspensions in their secondary, expect to see Seattle play even more zone coverage this time around. Their athleticism and length means that the windows between their zones are still very tight, but Brees has the accuracy to hit these windows if he is given time. In the first game he was never able to be comfortable enough in the pocket to exploit these zones, but if given the opportunity he can throw the ball successfully against this defense.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers

Week 10: Carolina beat San Francisco 10-9

These two teams have a great deal in common. They are both led by young, mobile quarterbacks who can throw the ball well enough to sustain a moderately successful passing game. San Francisco has better wide receivers, but Carolina has a better quarterback. Their true strengths are in the running game, both on offense and on defense. These are probably the two best front sevens in the league (maybe throw Kansas City into the discussion) and they generate enough of a pass rush to cover up weaknesses in the secondary. As similar as these teams are, it is no surprise that their first matchup was so close.

San Francisco was clearly the better team in the first half, but they were unable to capitalize on their opportunities. Twice they drove into Carolina territory, but both times they had to settle for long field goals. An interception set them up with a short field, but they made the mistake of kicking a field goal on fourth and one from the two yardline. Carolina scored on the ensuing drive to make it a 9-7 game at halftime, and in the second half their defense went to work. Colin Kaepernick was atrocious, throwing for under 100 yards on the day. Cam Newton wasn’t much better, but they managed to add a fourth quarter field goal after a punt return set them up with good field position.

Why it will end the same:

Carolina’s defensive line won the game the first time, and they are capable of doing it again. Kaepernick struggled because of the pressure they put on him, and their pass rush has only gotten better as the season has progressed. Even if they can’t replicate the same performance from their first game, they will be able to slow down the 49ers’ passing offense. The defensive line had a similar role in limiting Kaepernick’s effectiveness as a runner. He broke free once for a sixteen yard scramble up the middle, and that accounted for all of his rushing yards on the day.

Carolina won the first game thanks to several crucial stops on their own end of the field that kept the score manageable until their offense got going. The Panthers ranked third in the league this year in opponent red zone scoring percentage, an area the 49ers have struggled in lately. If they can continue to force Phil Dawson onto the field, they can make things a lot easier for their offense. At the end of the game the Panthers were beginning to establish some rhythm offensively, their receivers creating separation between them and the defenders that wasn’t there earlier in the game. It is difficult to know if this will carry over, but they definitely figured out something that was working against San Francisco’s defense.

Even though they won, the Panthers have to be looking back on this game and thinking about all the opportunities they left on the field. Their kicker missed a makeable field goal and their wide receivers dropped several crucial passes. With their backs against the goal line, they forced what appeared to be a Vernon Davis fumble only for the referees to rule it an incomplete pass. They caught plenty of good breaks as well, but if they make the plays they should the game doesn’t end as close as it did.

Why it will end differently:

Colin Kaepernick cannot possibly play this poorly again. His performance wasn’t as bad as his final statistics, but it was still pretty miserable. He spent most of the day checking down to running backs out of the backfield, even when he had receivers open down the field. Late in the game he became frustrated and started forcing the ball to covered receivers down the field, missing several open in the intermediate range. This was an unfortunate result of a heavy pass rush and the absences of his top receivers. Michael Crabtree had not yet returned from his Achilles injury, and Vernon Davis left with a concussion in the second quarter. With these weapons back, he should be able to spread the ball more evenly across the field. His line needs to do a better job keeping the pass rush off of him, and they have been playing better of late.

It will be interesting to see how Carolina adjusts to the returns of Crabtree and Davis. In the first game they stacked their defense against the run, keeping seven or eight defenders in the box on nearly every play. Even when the 49ers tried to spread the field with their formation the Panthers kept their players between the tackles, often leaving the slot receiver completely uncovered. If they don’t adjust, San Francisco will exploit these vulnerabilities. If they are forced to pull players out of the box, the 49ers will run the ball right at them. Even with the stacked defenses San Francisco was fairly effective running the football, Frank Gore averaging over five yards a carry.

Even though they lost the game, San Francisco’s defense turned in a spectacular performance the first time around. They didn’t stack the box against the run like the Panthers did, but they were just as effective slowing down their opponent’s rushing attack. Their run defense has been playing even better of late, and it would be a surprise if Carolina can manage more than 100 yards on the ground. Against the pass they played excellent coverage through the first half, but their best success came when they were able to pressure Newton. When he was able to establish a rhythm he would find and hit open receivers, but he could do nothing when they got someone in his face. Their pass rush should be even better now that Aldon Smith has moved back into a major role. He played only sparingly in their earlier game against Carolina, his first after returning from rehab. Carolina’s offensive line is very good, but San Francisco should be able to apply enough pressure to disrupt their offense. They held the Panthers to ten points in their first contest, and they are very capable of doing it again.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Week 10: Denver beat San Diego 28-20

Week 15: San Diego beat Denver 27-20

Unlike in the other games, these two teams have faced each other twice this season. They split their two games, with each team winning during their visit to the other team’s stadium. On paper this would seem to be a bad matchup for San Diego. They have the worst defense of the remaining eight teams, and they are going up against one of the best offenses in NFL history. But in their two games earlier this season they held Denver under 30 points each time, something that only happened to the Broncos in one other game on the season.

Denver won their first contest thanks to some missed opportunities by the Chargers. They moved the ball into Broncos’ territory four times in the first half but only came away with six points. On the last drive of the half, down 14-6 at the time, they were in the red zone and had the opportunity to close it to a one score game. Instead they were held out of the endzone and forced to attempt a field goal, which they missed. Denver drove down and scored a touchdown before the half. When they scored again on the first possession of the second half, they stretched their lead to 28-6. San Diego held them scoreless the rest of the game, but the Broncos were able to sustain drives well enough to keep the Chargers from catching up.

The Broncos’ offense got off to another hot start in the second game, but this time San Diego managed to keep pace. During the second and the third quarter Denver did absolutely nothing on offense, mostly thanks to several time consuming drives by the Chargers. They opened up a fourteen point lead before Denver’s offense could start clicking again, and they hung on thanks to another couple time sustaining drives and a late field goal set up by an interception on a deflected Peyton Manning pass.

Why San Diego will win again:

Their defense stepped up as well, but most of San Diego’s success in the second game was due to improvement by their offense. A team like the Broncos is going to score points, and the best way to keep them contained is to keep their offense off the field. The Chargers are ideally set up to do this, as they led the NFL in time of possession this season. The key to this strategy is the ability to sustain drives by running the ball. In both games against the Broncos, the Chargers were able to find success running at one of the better rush defenses in the league this season. The second time around they were aided by the absences of Derek Wolfe and Kevin Vickerson, Vickerson is on injured reserve, and even if Wolfe is able to return this weekend San Diego has shown that they can run on Denver’s defense at full strength.

Another crucial injury to Denver will help San Diego in this game. In the previous two matchups Denver was not able to generate much of a pass rush, with most of their sacks coming due to their tight coverage. That will be even more challenging now that they are without Von Miller. His absence will make it much easier for San Diego to attack through the air, which they had much more success with during the second game than the first. Part of that was due to different route designs—they beat the Broncos’ man coverage with several crossing routes—but it was also due to an increase in Philip Rivers’s trust of his wide receivers. When they were not open in the first game he would swallow the ball and take a sack, but in the second he was much more willing to challenge tight coverage and let his receivers make a play. Keenan Allen and Virgil Green are both able to win contested balls, and even Vincent Brown made some nice plays during the Chargers’ victory.

On defense, they just have to continue to weather the storm. It is unlikely they will be able to hold Denver under 30 points again, but they still have to prevent them from establishing any sort of rhythm. Denver had little success running the football in their first two matchups, but they won’t give up trying because of that. San Diego will still have to keep the box loaded and attack downhill whenever Knowshon Moreno is in the game. Their defensive front has played better of late, generating pressure last week against a Bengals offensive line that is significantly better than what they will see in Denver.

Why Denver will win again:

The key to this game is pass protection. San Diego held Denver’s offense in check this season because of the pressure they were able to generate on Manning, which is a strange thing to say about the 32^nd ranked defense in adjusted sack rate going against the top rated offense in that category. There is no reason San Diego should be able to get pressure on Manning, and it is very likely they will be unable to repeat the performances from earlier this year. In those games they sent a variety of exotic blitzes mixed amongst straight four man rushes, generating enough pressure to force Manning to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. They mixed up the coverage behind it, but they primarily lined up with their cornerbacks tight to the line. This strengthened their run defense and allowed them to close down the quick passing opportunities. But if the Broncos’ line can give Manning time to hold the ball, he will be able to find his receivers running open through the large and numerous holes in the back half of the Chargers’ secondary.

As important as it is for San Diego to keep their offense on the field, you can imagine how crucial it is for Denver’s defense to get off it. In the second half of the second game they were able to stack the line against the run, minimizing the damage done by San Diego’s rushing attack. The Chargers’ wide receivers have shown no ability to create separation against Denver’s cornerbacks in a man scheme, but the Broncos might want to throw in some more zone looks to discourage crossing routes. More importantly, their defensive backs need to make plays on the ball when it is in the air. If they can win some of these battles and create a turnover or two, they will bring their offense back out onto the field and turn this game into a rout.

Death of the Game Manager

The term ‘game manager’ has been thrown around for years as the NFL’s most backhanded compliment. It’s a term used to describe quarterbacks who win games without putting up gaudy stats, who avoid turnovers and other negative plays to let their team win on the strength of its defense and running game. The hallmarks of a good game manager are a low sack rate, few interceptions, and usually a low yards per attempt. They specialize in screen plays and checkdowns, throwaways and crossing routes. They live by the old adage that any drive that ends with a kick is a successful drive, even if that kick is a punt.

The term took new life around the beginning of the new millennium. In a three year span the Super Bowl was won by the Ravens, Patriots, and Buccaneers—teams quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer, the first year of Tom Brady as a starter, and Brad Johnson. They all featured top ten defenses and middle of the pack offenses. And yet at the end of the year they were crowned champions despite the mediocrity at the quarterback position.

Since then, the following quarterbacks have won Super Bowls: Tom Brady (2), Ben Roethlisberger (2), Peyton Manning, Eli Manning (2), Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Flacco. We can debate the relative merits of all the quarterbacks in this group, but one thing is perfectly clear: not one of them is a game manager. Every single one of them can make plays with his arm, and every one of them did so on the path to the Super Bowl.

This has led to the claim that only teams with elite quarterbacks can win the Super Bowl. A few years ago that appeared true, but since then we have seen that this is not the case. Joe Flacco is far from elite, and after this season you would be hard pressed to find anyone willing to put Eli Manning into that category. Even Roethlisberger has had enough ups and downs that it is hard to put him on the same level as the other four. Half of the Super Bowls over the past ten years have been won by one of these three quarterbacks.

These three are part of a new breed of quarterbacks who have taken over the league and effectively replaced the game manager. I will call them ‘erratic quarterbacks.’ Unlike those on the elite level, erratic quarterbacks regularly play terrible games, games where they perform so poorly they cost their team any chance of winning. But unlike game managers, they are also capable of putting together sensational passing performances and carrying their team to victory.

It is because of the structure of the NFL playoffs that an erratic quarterback can lead a team to a championship. To win the Super Bowl a team needs only to win three or four consecutive games. An erratic quarterback needs only to put together three or four good performances. We saw the best example last year with Joe Flacco, an up and down quarterback who rolled through four playoff games throwing eleven touchdowns against zero interceptions. We’ve seen it twice now with Eli Manning, who just finished his third season leading the league in interceptions. The NFL playoffs constitute a ridiculously small sample size, and with players of high variance like the erratic quarterbacks I’ve listed, it is not improbable to get such stunning results.

The truth is, you don’t need an elite quarterback to win a Super Bowl. But you cannot win with a game manager. The changes in passing rules have made the quarterback position much more valuable than it has ever been in the past, increasing the cost of carrying a mediocre quarterback. In addition to this, offenses are now built to service the passing game. Lineman are drafted for their pass blocking skills, and there are any number of offensive lines in the league with major deficiencies in the running game. Offenses can no longer survive with a run first system. The rushing game has to be an alternative, a change of pace to the passing game that is the primary motor of the offense.

This is why game managers are on the way out, and this is why erratic quarterbacks are taking over. In many cases a game is decided based on which team’s quarterback plays at a higher level. Over the course of the season it is not unreasonable to expect a game manager to outplay an erratic quarterback on an average level, but in a one game sample size an erratic quarterback has the ability to overwhelm a more consistent game manager. A team with a game manager has to hope it faces four straight opponents with an erratic quarterback playing poorly, has to hope it doesn’t go head to head with an elite quarterback. Because an erratic quarterback is capable of playing at an elite level, they can match the consistently great performance of an elite quarterback. This is how Flacco’s Ravens knocked off Manning’s Broncos and Brady’s Patriots last season. This is how Eli Manning’s Giants have defeated Brady twice in the Super Bowl.

This past weekend we witnessed two events that signaled the end of the game manager. The first was the collapse of Andy Dalton. In past years, Dalton would have fit into the Bengals as the perfect game manager. Behind a dominant offensive line with an impressive cast of skill position players and one of the best defenses in the NFL, he would have happily remained the same safe, conservative player he was his first two years in the league. But each of those years the Bengals made the playoffs only to lose in the first round. Each of those years, Dalton came up short.

So this year, the Bengals tried to turn Dalton from a game manager into an erratic quarterback. And it actually worked. In a four game stretch to begin October Dalton was incredible, throwing for 1246 yards, 11 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions. He was named AFC Offensive Player of the Month as he led his team to four straight wins. The rest of the season he was less spectacular, accumulating a total of 33 touchdowns to 20 interceptions through all sixteen games. On five separate occasions he threw multiple interceptions. He was inconsistent, but he was no longer incapable of elite play.

Dalton failed again this weekend, but don’t take his dismal performance to be a failure of the project. Those sort of games are inevitable from an erratic quarterback. It remains to be seen whether Dalton can be a long term solution in Cincinnati, but he showed enough this season that they cannot justify moving on from him. They need another season to see if he can replicate his October peak, and if he can then he is absolutely a quarterback capable of winning a Super Bowl down the road.

Contrast this with Sam Bradford, who has been solid but unspectacular since being taken by the Rams first overall. In past eras such a player would have likely carved a long career in the league as a game manager, perhaps even winning a Super Bowl if he was put in the right situation. But this is a different league now, and Bradford has shown no ability during his career to play at an elite level for any stretch of games. Because of this (and his outrageous $17 million cap hit next season) it is possible that the Rams could move on from Bradford during this offseason.

 

The other case from this past weekend I want to discuss is Alex Smith. Over the past three years Smith has been the most obvious example of a game manager starting in the modern league. Over his last year and a half in San Francisco he went 19-5-1 as a starter thanks to a dominant defense and a good running game. In those 25 games he threw only ten interceptions. When the 49ers decided to move on from him to Colin Kaepernick, he was given the starting job in Kansas City. There he turned in a similar performance, leading them this season to a record of 11-5 (11-4 during games he started) thanks to Jamaal Charles and a talented young defense. He threw only seven interceptions in his 15 games.

There is no denying that Smith was a game manager this season, and there is no denying that he had success. But take a look at the quarterbacks of the teams he defeated: Blaine Gabbert, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, Jeff Tuel, Robert Griffin III, and Matt McGloin. This is a solid mix of erratic quarterbacks who were down most of the season and quarterbacks who are just plain terrible. Compare that to the quarterbacks who defeated the Chiefs this season: Peyton Manning (2), Philip Rivers (2), and Andrew Luck. Manning is definitely elite, Luck deserves to be in the discussion, and Rivers is an erratic quarterback who was playing at an elite level the entire season.

The Chiefs and Smith are a clear example of what I said before: more often than not, the team with the best quarterback will win. Over the course of a sixteen game regular season, a game manager will face enough quarterbacks playing at a poor level that his team can win enough games to make the playoffs. But one he makes the postseason, he will be forced to face quarterbacks who are capable of playing at a significantly higher level than him. With the season on the line, it only takes one elite performance from an erratic quarterback to knock a game manager out of the playoffs.

This is where Smith is an interesting case. Because this past Saturday against the Colts, he did not play like a game manager. He was a completely different quarterback from the regular season, finishing the day with 378 yards and 4 touchdowns on 46 pass attempts. During the regular season he completed only a single pass greater than 60 yards in length. During this game he completed two such passes. The Chiefs had to open it up more than normal due to the loss of Jamaal Charles to a concussion during their first series, but it was clear from the start that they came in with an offensive strategy of attack.

This wasn’t a first time occurrence. Smith put together a similarly spectacular performance in the 49ers’ playoff victory over the Saints two seasons ago. It is as if he and his coaches have realized what I have said above, that a game manager can take a team to the playoffs but will not be able to lead a team to a Super Bowl victory. And so when the postseason arrives, they completely change the way Smith plays the game. They go for a higher variance strategy, knowing it might backfire but also understanding it is the only way for them to have success.

There is precedent for a team winning the Super Bowl this way. In 2005 Roethlisberger led the Steelers to a championship in his second season. Many remember him as a game manager whose team won despite a miserable performance from him during the Super Bowl, and that is not entirely off base. During the regular season he was absolutely a game manager, and their defense was the reason they beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. But people forget about the three game playoff run before that, when the Steelers’ coaches asked Roethlisberger to open the game up and beat the opposition through the air. With him managing the game they had lost in the AFC Championship the season before, and so when it came time for this playoff run they knew they needed him to open things up. The Steelers won the Super Bowl based on Roethlisberger’s ability to fundamentally change who he was as a quarterback when the postseason came around.

It will be interesting going forward to see if Smith can have success and whether other players will attempt to duplicate this strategy. It didn’t work out for Smith this weekend because of the brilliant performance by his opponent Luck (plus several devastating injuries to Chiefs’ players) but against any other team this weekend it likely would have been enough to advance to the next round. He will have another chance next year, and we should all be watching with interest as this experiment continues.

It is easy to say that teams need to find an elite quarterback, but it is much more difficult to actually pull this off. The past twenty drafts have produced fewer than ten such players. More likely than not, the best a team can hope to do is to get an erratic quarterback they can build a solid team around. As useful as an erratic quarterback is during the small sample size of the playoffs, they can be a problem during a long regular season. To be successful an erratic quarterback needs a team around him that can win over bad teams even when he plays poorly. This is why the Ravens and Bengals have been able to make the playoffs while teams like the Cowboys, Lions, and Bears have fallen consistently short. Romo, Stafford, and Cutler are among the best erratic quarterbacks in the league, but they lack the supporting casts of Flacco and Dalton. It is an oversimplification to say that teams make the playoffs while quarterbacks win championships, but it is not as absurd as you would think.

AFC Playoff Preview

Two days ago I posted my preview of the teams on the NFC side of the playoffs. Now it's time for the AFC. Again I've given a breakdown of each team's strengths and weaknesses followed by analyses of a matchup that would work in their favor and one they would rather avoid.

Denver Broncos (13-3)

The Broncos’ offense has been the story of the season this year. They shattered all sorts of NFL records, led by Peyton Manning who reached new heights of quarterback play. Surrounded by the most dangerous supporting cast of his career, he set the NFL record for passing yards and passing touchdowns in a season while only throwing ten interceptions. More than that, he controlled an offense that allowed Knowshon Moreno to finally develop into the player the Broncos envisioned when they drafted him in the first round. This offense is loaded with weapons, and there is no possible way to contain them all.

So how do you beat this team? First of all, a defense has to find some way to exploit the one weakness of the Broncos’ offense: their line. A strength coming into the season, injuries have reduced their effectiveness in containing a pass rush. I went into greater detail on this here, but the simplest summary is that Denver has adjusted by running a lot of short crossing routes, pick plays, and screens to take the pressure off the line. The way to counter this is to play physical with the wide receivers in order to disrupt their timing and force Manning to hold the ball until the pass rush can close in. They will still score their points, but they will be limited enough that a competent offense can keep up by scoring against a vulnerable defense. Denver has struggled all year against the pass, and the loss of Von Miller to a torn ACL will only exacerbate their struggles. They were very strong against the run for most of the year, but the absences of Derek Wolfe and Kevin Vickerson have cost them that advantage. Either could return in the playoffs, but it’s just as likely that Denver will have to find a way to field a defense without them.

Favorable Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals

As banged up as Cincinnati’s defense is, it is hard to imagine them holding down the Broncos’ offense. Without Leon Hall they don’t have the cornerbacks to challenge these physical receivers. Unless they are willing to stack the box against the run (which they won’t be) they don’t have a chance of containing Knowshon Moreno. Healthy this defense could present matchup problems for Denver’s offensive line, but as things are Manning will be able to call plays to attack the weakness of the Bengals’ defense. They don’t have players capable of consistently beating an opponent or swallowing a double team like they had with a healthy Geno Atkins. Their offense has improved this season, but they lack the firepower to exploit Denver’s secondary. AJ Green is capable of producing a spectacular game, but it won’t be enough to keep up with Denver’s offense.

Unfavorable Matchup: New England Patriots

Denver is absolutely the favorite to win the AFC. Even though New England matches up against them as well as any team, even though they beat the Broncos earlier this season, I would still expect Denver to win if this matchup occurs. That said, New England has done as good a job as anyone slowing down the Broncos’ offense. In Aqib Talib they have one of the largest and most physical cornerbacks outside of Seattle, and in their first game he managed to hold Demaryius Thomas in check without much help. That performance will be difficult to repeat, but he has been effective against almost every top receiver he has faced this season. The key matchup is the Patriots’ run defense against Moreno, who carried the ball 37 times for 224 yards in their first contest. New England has struggled all year against the run, and Denver may be able to sustain offense without needing to challenge their cornerbacks. On the other side of the ball, this game could swing on the absence of Von Miller. In their first game Denver got up early thanks to several fantastic plays from him, but with him out Tom Brady will be able to attack their defense without needing to fear for his own well being. They should be able to put up points to keep pace with Denver’s offense.

New England Patriots (12-4)

I’ll be honest with you. I’m still not sure how New England managed to win twelve games this season. Yes, their schedule was manageable, and yes, they had some good fortune late in games against New Orleans and Denver, but this team should not be the two seed in the AFC. Their roster was never that talented, and injuries have robbed them of most of their top players. It’s a credit to this team’s discipline and depth that they’ve managed to win games despite their injuries. They win games not by creating positive plays but by letting their opponents make negative plays, keeping hold of the ball and allowing turnovers to come to them.

To beat the Patriots a team needs first and foremost to eliminate turnovers. Even when New England’s offense is struggling, they are lethal converting opponents’ mistakes into points. They’ve been doing this for years, surrendering massive yardage totals but stopping their opponents when their backs are against the wall. It has seemed inevitable that this strategy would fail them, but so far it has proven sustainable. To defeat New England, a team has to play disciplined football and take advantage of the opportunities presented to them. They can help create these opportunities by attacking the weak heart of the Patriots’ defense with a powerful running game. Since the losses of Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, and Jerod Mayo the Patriots have been unable to hold their ground against a stout running attack. Keep the ball on the ground and avoid turnovers, and this Patriots team is not the least bit intimidating.

Favorable Matchup: San Diego Chargers

Brady will tear the Chargers’ defense apart. Though they have improved as the season has progressed, San Diego’s defense remains one of the worst units in the league. They cannot pressure the quarterback, and they will struggle to cover even New England’s mediocre receivers. The They don't have any semblance of a pass rush, and they will give Brady as much time as he wants to find an open receiver. The only chance the Chargers have is if they can sustain a running game against the Patriots’ defense and avoid turnovers. Philip Rivers has done an admirable job cutting down on interceptions this season, but this is the same quarterback who threw twenty picks just two years ago. He could very easily regress and give the Patriots the breaks they live off of.

Unfavorable Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is exactly the type of team that can capitalize on the chances presented to them by New England. They play a highly conservative offense that specializes in avoiding turnovers. Despite the general mediocrity of their offense, they are one of the ten most efficient teams at scoring touchdowns in the red zone. If New England gives them a chance to score, they will take full advantage of it. Their defense is also set up ideally to slow the Patriots’ offense. Brady is probably the least mobile quarterback in the league, and he struggles especially with pressure up the middle. Dontari Poe has fallen off from his torrid pass rushing start to the season, but he is still a disruptive force from the nose tackle position. He will be able to overpower a banged up Patriots line and get into Tom Brady’s face, forcing the sort of mistakes New England usually avoids.

Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

Like New Orleans, Cincinnati is another middle of the pack team that put together a strong season by being unbeatable at home. During games in Cincinnati their offense was almost unstoppable, and it has allowed people to overlook their 3-5 record on the road this season. Their only road victories have come by a combined thirteen points over Buffalo, San Diego, and Detroit. At home, however, they scored at least 34 points in each of their past five games. Wherever they play, this is not the same team that has been eliminated in the first round the past two seasons. Andy Dalton has developed from a game manager into an inconsistent quarterback with flashes of brilliance and flashes of total incompetence. This may not sound like a big deal, but it is the difference between a player who could never get over the hump like Matt Schaub and a Super Bowl Champion like Joe Flacco. If they are going to sustain a deep run in the playoffs, they will need several moments of brilliance from Dalton that he wouldn’t have been able to provide during his first two seasons in the league.

Even with their offensive success, the strength of this team is still the defense. But this is a unit that is banged up, missing their two best players in the aforementioned Atkins and Hall. It’s a testament to the greatness of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer (who should absolutely get a head coaching job this year) that they have held together so far this season, but cracks are beginning to show. Three weeks ago the Steelers scored with ease on them early in the game, and last week they allowed the Ravens to mount a big comeback that was only thwarted when Flacco started throwing the ball to the wrong team. If their defense is no longer performing at an elite level, the flaws in their offense will become more evident. Receivers other than AJ Green have stepped up their production, but they still lack a reliable secondary target. Their running game has been inconsistent over the course of the season, and rookie Giovani Bernard seemed to hit a wall a few weeks back. And again, it all comes down to Dalton. They are one bad performance away from being eliminated from the playoffs, but they are also four great performances away from being Super Bowl Champions.

Favorable Matchup: Indianapolis Colts

The injuries to the Bengals’ defense have hindered them against balanced offensive attacks, but they are still capable of shutting down one dimensional teams. Indianapolis cannot run the ball, and the Bengals will not bother stacking the box against them. Instead they will drop into coverage, trusting their four man pass rush to beat the Colts’ porous offensive line. Andrew Luck is used to pressure, but the Bengals are a rare team that can create pressure without having to bother with blitzes, allowing them to play tight coverage across the field. Offensively, the Bengals showed what they can do to the questionable Colts’ defense when they put up 42 points against them a few weeks back. Even if they can’t recreate that production, they can score enough to give their defense breathing room to attack Indianapolis’s offense.

Unfavorable Matchup: New England Patriots

These two teams played earlier in the year, and Cincinnati came out on top. They did so by holding New England without a touchdown, a performance they will be unable to repeat without Atkins. As I mentioned above, Brady struggles when facing interior pressure, and no one in the league generates interior pressure like Atkins. The Bengals’ defensive line is still capable of producing tremendous pressure, but they lack the disruptive force to get Brady off his game. If this matchup happens again, the Bengals will be fortunate to better the thirteen points they scored on New England earlier in the season. Talib shut down AJ Green in that game, and he will probably be able to contain him to some extent if asked to do so again. Cincinnati might be able to sustain some offense by running the ball, but eventually the Patriots’ tight coverage will force Dalton into a mistake.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

The Colts play to the level of their competition. They have beaten the Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers this season. They have lost to the Chargers, Rams, and Dolphins and have been embarrassed by the Cardinals and the Bengals. A few weeks back they looked done, over a five week stretch alternating double digit losses to the Rams, Cardinals, and Bengals with a pair of narrow victories over the Titans. But since then they have won three straight games by comfortable margins, and they appear to have figured things out in time for the playoffs.

Andrew Luck has been spectacular this season, even if his statistics don’t reflect it. He has cut down on his mistakes, going from the league leaders in interceptions to one of the safest passers in the league. His numbers have been hurt by the catastrophe of an offensive line in front of him and the struggles of the wide receiver corps since Reggie Wayne was lost to a torn ACL. They appear to have finally figured out that Donald Brown is a better running back than Trent Richardson, which can only help their offense. The struggles they will have will come on the defensive side of the ball. Robert Mathis had a fantastic season, but he accounted for almost as many sacks as the rest of the team combined. Vontae Davis has alternated between dominance and incompetence at cornerback, and there aren’t many other players on this unit capable of playing at an elite level. To win the Super Bowl, this team is going to need plenty of good fortune and several spectacular performances from Luck.

Favorable Matchup: San Diego Chargers

The Chargers won this game earlier in the year thanks to an unusually strong performance from their defense and some questionable play calling from Indianapolis’s coaches. Since then San Diego has shown that their defense is not as good as it performed in that game, and the Colts have realized that they cannot rely on a consistent running game. This time around, they won’t waste series running the ball three times up the middle. They will put it on the arm of Luck, and he will tear apart San Diego’s defense. Even against the Colts’ mediocre receiving corps the Chargers’ secondary will not be able to keep up. San Diego might be able to turn it into a shootout, but the Colts will win by virtue of making fewer mistakes than their opposition. No team had fewer turnovers this year than Indianapolis.

Unfavorable Matchup: Denver Broncos

Unlike the aforementioned game against the Chargers, Indianapolis actually beat Denver when they played earlier this year. They did so by pressuring the Broncos’ receivers and disrupting the timing enough to get to the quarterback. They will not be able to repeat this performance. Even as they played Denver was making adjustments to their offensive scheme, running pick plays and crossing routes to free their receivers from tight coverage. It was too little too late at that point, but since then Denverhas mastered an offense to counter physical cornerbacks. Had that game gone another quarter, they would likely have come back and emerged victorious.

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)

Kansas City put together an incredible start to the season, but they fell off once they were forced to face quality competitions. During their 9-0 start to the season the best teams they beat were Dallas and Philadelphia before they moved Nick Foles into the starting lineup. Since that point the Chiefs have gone 2-5 with their only victories over the awful Redskins and Raiders. That stretch included a home loss to the team they are facing on the road in the first round, the Indianapolis Colts.

This team has been inconsistent across the board throughout the year. Early on their defense was dominant, led by explosive starts from Dontari Poe and Justin Houston. Poe has slowed down as the season has gone on, and Houston has missed several games with injury. Their entire defense has suffered as a result. They surrendered more than forty points in a loss to the Chargers and more than thirty in a victory over the Raiders. Fortunately for them, their offense has kicked it up after an uninspiring start to the season. They still aren’t a particularly dangerous unit—Alex Smith has a habit of neutralizing any sort of outside passing game—but Jamaal Charles is one of the most dangerous playmakers in the playoffs. More importantly, they have sustained success in two critical areas: turnovers and special teams. As long as they are taking care of the ball and winning the field position battle, they have a chance to beat nearly any opponent.

Favorable Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals

The Chiefs’ defense will bring the worst of Dalton to the forefront. As good as Cincinnati’s offensive line is, they will not be able to hold back the Chiefs’ suddenly healthy pass rush. Andre Smith is one of the better right tackles in the league, but he has rarely had to face a player with the speed and pass rush skills of Houston. Pressure will come at Dalton from all sides, and this will lead to turnovers as it did in their final game against Baltimore. The Bengals have survived through terrible games from their quarterback this season—notably in their wins over the Browns and the Ravens—but they have only done so thanks to a defense that has created mistakes in their opposition to match their own offense’s. Kansas City doesn’t make those mistakes, and they know how to capitalize when their opponent does.

Unfavorable Matchup: Denver Broncos

It isn’t just bad fortune that cost the Chiefs both their games against Denver this season. Kansas City does not match up well against their division rival. To beat the Broncos a team needs to attack their secondary with an explosive passing game, and with Alex Smith at quarterback the Chiefs simply do not have that in their offense. With Denver’s injuries up front they might be able to run the ball better than in their earlier matchups, but they still don’t have any way to attack their opponent’s greatest weakness. More troubling is on the defensive side of the ball, where they struggled to get any semblance of a pass rush against Manning in either of their games. They have the size and depth at cornerback to challenge Denver’s receivers, but unless their pass rush steps up they won’t be able to stick with the receivers long enough to stop the lethal Broncos’ offense.

San Diego Chargers (9-7)

With six weeks left in the season I attempted to project the AFC Playoff race. I had San Diego as the second least likely of the contenders to make the playoffs, behind the Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Jets, Browns, Titans, and Raiders. I’m sorry. But to my credit, the Chargers have pulled off an incredible streak to make it here. They won games in Kansas City and Denver, handled the Giants and the Raiders, and held on against the Chiefs’ B-Team in Week 17. They deserve credit for proving me wrong and for winning the games they needed to in order to make the playoffs. All that said, they are the worst team left alive.

Mike McCoy deserves Coach of the Year consideration for what he’s done to turn around Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ offense. Coming into the season this unit appeared ready for another catastrophe, and when they lost their top two wide receivers for the season things only looked to get worse. But led by what has probably been the best season of Rivers’s career, they put together a surprisingly effective offense. Their patchwork line has held together remarkably well, and they have gotten unexpected contributions from free agent Danny Woodhead and rookie Keenan Allen. Ryan Mathews has had a quietly good season, and Antonio Gates managed to play all 16 games for the first time in four years. But problems remain in their defense, an inconsistent unit that has actually put together a couple solid outings in victories over Denver and Indianapolis. The rest of the year they have been a disaster, and there is no reason to have faith that they can sustain defensive success for a four game Super Bowl run.

Favorable Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers face an uphill battle having to play in Cincinnati this weekend, but they have a roster capable of knocking off the Bengals. Their roster has the balance required to attack the banged up Cincinnati defense. When healthy, this defense is capable of creating matchup problems with elite players like Atkins and Hall. With them out, they have to rely more on scheme than on talent. They can no longer drop into coverage and stop the run. They have to choose one or the other, and against a versatile team like San Diego this will cause problems. Mathews will have a big day on the ground, and the efficiency of Rivers will prevent this defense from creating easy scores for their offense.

Unfavorable Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs

This is a strange choice, considering the Chargers beat Kansas City both times they played this season. But one of those victories was over a Chiefs team that played only a single regular starter, a victory that required a couple questionable calls, a missed 41 yard field goal, and a fake punt in overtime. In their first game San Diego won in a shootout, the only team this year to score more than forty points against the Chiefs’ defense. The same problem appeared in both games: the Chargers cannot slow down Kansas City’s offense. Alex Smith or Chase Daniel, Jamaal Charles or Knile Davis, Brandon Albert or Donald Stephenson. If San Diego cannot contain this offense, I can’t believe they will be able to repeat their performance against this defense. Their offensive line will struggle with the pass rush, and their wide receivers won’t be able to beat Kansas City’s physical cornerbacks. If they allow this game to become a shootout again, they will not be able to keep up.

NFC Playoff Preview

It's the most wonderful time of the year. The stress of the holidays is behind us, and we can enjoy the one true celebration of winter: the NFL playoffs. We've seen all these teams for sixteen games, and we have a good idea of what to expect in the playoffs. I'll start today with the NFC, giving a brief summary of each team's strengths and weaknesses before identifying the team they most want to see and one they would probably rather avoid. Of course, because this is a single elimination tournament there is a great deal of randomness involved. This is what we should see, but don't be surprised if I am proven wrong by some of these teams.

Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Everyone knows what we’re getting with the Seahawks. Their pass defense is one of the best of all time. Their size and depth at cornerback allows them to play press man across the board. Earl Thomas, probably the best safety in the league, can cover an incredible amount of ground up top in the rare event that their corners are beaten. With the additions of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril in free agency they have so much depth in their pass rush that they rarely bother to rush Bruce Irvin, who had eight sacks last season in his rookie year. If you are going to score points on this team, you are going to have to do so running the football, ideally straight at them. They have the athleticism to run down quicker backs trying to reach the edge.

Their offense is inconsistent, but when it’s on they are the best team in the league. It appears that Percy Harvin is finally going to return, and if he’s even close to full health he gives them a weapon like they haven’t had all season. Their offensive line is above average, and Marshawn Lynch is one of the ten best running backs in the league. He’s had his struggles lately, but he is still a beast to try to tackle. This offense can be contained, but when they're clicking they are nearly impossible to beat.

Favorable Matchup: New Orleans Saints

We all remember what happened in the Sunday Night matchup between these teams. The Seahawks dominated in every facet of the game on their way to a 34-7 victory. Much was made of the home field advantage for Seattle, but even on a neutral field these teams do not match up particularly well. Drew Brees thrives by getting the ball out of his hand quickly in the face of a pass rush, but Seattle’s tight coverage and versatile pass rush make identification and conversion of hot routes difficult. With players like Kam Chancellor the Seahawks are one of the few teams capable of handling the Saints’ massive wide receiver Jimmy Graham. They likely won’t be able to hold the Saints to single digits again, but they should slow the offense enough that their offense can put up more points if it comes to a shootout.

Unfavorable Matchup: Carolina Panthers

The NFC team most likely to knock off the Seahawks is the team most likely to face them in the NFC Championship game. The Panthers have the sort of downhill rushing game that can wear its way through Seattle’s defense, and they have a quarterback in Cam Newton who will minimize the damage done by the pass rush. But where Carolina really matches up well against the Seahawks is on the defensive side of the ball. Luke Kuechly has received well deserved praise this year, but the strength of the Panthers' defense is their front four. The rookie defensive tackle combination of Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei will stuff up Lynch in the middle and cut down on Wilson’s opportunities to escape the pocket by stepping up. Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy will rush hard off the edge and create pressure to disrupt Wilson. The weakness of the Panthers’ defense is in their secondary, but Seattle doesn’t have the wide receivers to exploit this advantage.

Carolina Panthers (12-4)

My how things change. I remember earlier this year, when the Panthers came to play the Vikings, this team was sitting at 1-3 and looking at another lost season. Ron Rivera was a dead man walking, and there were even calls to bench Cam Newton. Since then they have lost only a single game on their way to an NFC South title. Ron Rivera has developed his young players into one of the three best defenses in the NFL, and they’ve put together an effective offense behind a rejuvenated line. Their best player is the aforementioned Kuechly, a linebacker who flies all over the field and seems to get in on every tackle. But don’t ignore Thomas Davis either, one of the best pass defending linebackers in the league.

The success of their offense will hinge on the potential return of Steve Smith, their only quality wide receiver. Without him, it’s hard to see them having any semblance of a competent passing game. Their defense can be exploited through the passing game, provided the opposition can contain their defensive front. Their secondary has been surprisingly effective this season, but it has been greatly helped by the pass rush of their front four. If a team can protect their quarterback, this secondary can be beaten.

Favorable Matchup: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has one of the worst run defenses in football, and they are missing one of their best run defenders in Clay Matthews. Carolina can exploit them by running the ball straight ahead or can confuse them by running the same read option schemes the 49ers used so effectively in last year’s playoffs. If the Packers sell out against the run they might be able to contain the Panthers’ offense, but their questionable safety play leaves them vulnerable to one of the strongest armed quarterbacks in the league. On the other side of the ball, the athleticism the in the Panthers’ linebacker corps will neutralize Green Bay’s passing game, forcing Aaron Rodgers to hold the ball. Green Bay’s offensive line has improved from past seasons, but they still won’t be able to handle Carolina’s intimidating pass rush.

Unfavorable Matchup: San Francisco 49ers

Earlier this season the 49ers and Panthers played one of the most fun and physical games of the year. The Panthers ended up winning 10-9 thanks to the worst game of Colin Kaepernick’s career. He played that game without Michael Crabtree and lost Vernon Davis to a concussion early on. With those weapons back he’ll be in better position to attack the Panthers’ pass defense, and the offense will be able to put up more than nine points. Carolina won’t manage similar improvement. The 49ers aren’t afraid of their passing game, and they will stack the box to stop the Panthers from running. With Aldon Smith back in their lineup they will be able to pressure Cam Newton, and because of their athleticism at linebacker they don’t have to be concerned with him as a running threat. The game will still be low scoring, but the 49ers will win by virtue of a more balanced offense.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

The Eagles came on during the second half of the season due to a sudden improvement in their defense and a slight shift in scheme to accommodate their change at quarterback. With Michael Vick at the helm they ran a system of read options that has become familiar to most football fans, with the quarterback deciding whether to hand the ball off or keep it himself. Foles is nowhere near as mobile as Vick, and they were forced to remove the quarterback keep option from most of their plays. Instead they now run a different sort of option, giving Foles the choice to hand it off, throw a quick slant, or toss it outside to a wide receiver running a bubble screen. This has the same effect, confusing the defense’s reads and forcing them to cover the entirety of the field. It helps to have dynamic and versatile players like DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy to plug into this offense.

These changes have gotten most of the attention, but their late season push would not have happened had their defense not stepped up. This is a unit that still isn’t particularly good, but they have managed to play above the talent on their roster. They have faltered a times, notably letting a Vikings’ offense led by Matt Cassel and missing Adrian Peterson to score 48 points. There are reasons to be concerned about their offense as well. The success under Foles has come due to an unsustainably low rate of turnovers. With 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions, Foles set a record for the highest touchdown to interception ratio in NFL history. If he regresses towards a more reasonable number, it is easy to imagining their offense being slowed down. All that said, they just need their luck to hold together for four more games. This is absolutely a team that could win the Super Bowl.

Favorable Matchup: Green Bay Packers

Like Carolina, Philadelphia can exploit the Packers through a versatile running game. Green Bay was absolutely flummoxed by the read option last season, and it’s doubtful they will fare any better against Philadelphia’s new version. Their defense isn’t athletic enough to cover the field from sideline to sideline, and without Matthews they won’t be able to get pressure on Foles. Without pressure, it is unlikely they will be able to produce the turnovers needed to stop the Eagles’ offense. Their only hope would be for Aaron Rodgers to keep up in a shootout, a prospect that seems unlikely given their continuing rash of injuries on the offensive side of the ball.

Unfavorable Matchup: Seattle Seahawks

If there is a defense that can give this offense fits, it is in Seattle. The physicality of their corners allows them to play press coverage on every down, keeping more defenders near the line to cut down on the effectiveness of screen plays. Philadelphia's scheme works thanks to receivers who can block in space against cornerbacks, but their receivers are not used to blocking defenders significantly larger than them. With their screens neutralized, the Eagles will be forced to run the ball between the hashes. McCoy is the best running back in the league in open space, but players like Bruce Irvin and Earl Thomas have the athleticism to keep him in check. If Philadelphia gets bogged down with a bunch of quick punts, Seattle’s offense will be able to establish the rhythm they need to turn this into a blowout.

Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

The presence of Green Bay in these playoffs is more a testament to the wretchedness of the other teams in the NFC North than to the quality of their season. This year they proved what I have said for a long time: outside of Aaron Rodgers this is a bad football team. During the eight games he missed (including the game against the Bears when he went out in the first quarter) they were 2-5-1 with their two victories coming by a combined two points. They were thrashed by the Lions, easily handled by the Giants, and needed an incredible collapse from the Cowboys to squeak out a win. Even when Rodgers returned last week against the Bears they needed one of the worst coverage breakdowns I have ever seen to win the game.

All that said, there are still reasons to believe this is a team going on a deep playoff run. Aaron Rodgers is one of the three best quarterbacks in the league, and he alone is enough to take this team from one of the bottom ten in the league to one of the top ten. Eddie Lacy is banged up right now, but he still has the strength and aggressiveness to pick up three yards on every carry. Their defense has plenty of problems, especially if Clay Matthews misses any more games, but they have at least shown flashes of competence over the course of the season. The odds aren’t good of them putting together a run, but anything can happen in the playoffs.

Favorable Matchup: New Orleans Saints

Unfortunately for Green Bay, the team they match up best against is the team they are least likely to see. For them to face the Saints, both teams would have to make it to the NFC Championship game. That would involve New Orleans winning in Philadelphia and Seattle and Green Bay beating the 49ers at home and winning in Carolina. But if somehow this does happen, the Packers will be thrilled. The Saints’ defensive strength is their pass defense, but Rodgers can throw the ball against anybody, especially if his line gives him time. New Orleans is near the bottom of the league in sacks, and their front shouldn’t bother Rodgers at all. They are also a below average run defense, and the combination of Lacy and James Starks should be effective against them. On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints lack the running game to exploit Green Bay’s miserable run defense. Drew Brees can put up points by himself, but he won’t be able to match the balanced attack the Packers will be able to sustain.

Unfavorable Matchup: San Francisco 49ers

On the other hand, the team the Packers least want to see is the one the face in the first round. San Francisco has beaten Green Bay three times in the past two seasons, including the thrashing in last year’s Divisional Round. In their first game this season the Packers loaded up against the run and actually had success limiting the 49ers on the ground. The only problem was that Kaepernick threw for over 400 yards, more than 200 of them to Anquan Boldin. Now that he has a (somewhat limited) Crabtree back, he will only be more effective in attacking the Packers’ secondary. I expect Green Bay to drop back into a more preventative coverage scheme, and I expect San Francisco to attack them on the ground like they did in last year’s playoffs. Jim Harbaugh has shown that his offense can do whatever it wants against Green Bay. The only hope for the Packers is to win in a shootout. San Francisco’s defense has fallen off some from the past two seasons, and they might not be able to contain the Packers’ offense.

San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

The 49ers are running under the radar for a team that has been to the NFC Championship the past two seasons, the Super Bowl last year, and won twelve games this year. They have wins over playoff teams Seattle and Green Bay, two victories over the 10-6 Cardinals, and every loss they have is to a team in the playoffs. They routed every mediocre opponent they faced. Most of their struggles have come as a result of injuries, but they are finally starting to get healthy along their offensive line and in their receiving corps. Kaepernick’s mediocre numbers don’t reflect how well he has played, and their passing game will only improve as Crabtree gets back to normal speed.

The only negative thing you can say about this 49ers team is that they don’t do anything “great.” They have been a well rounded team ever since Jim Harbaugh arrived, but the past two seasons they have really excelled at running the ball and stopping the run. They are still above average in both those categories, but they are no longer dominating in the way they used to. Their offensive line has been hindered by injuries, and Frank Gore had the lowest yards per carry average of his career this season. At times early in the season their running game vanished altogether, leaving Kaepernick to struggle with too much of the offensive burden thrust upon him. If a team can contain their running game, their offense will struggle.

Favorable Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles

This game will be won by the strength and athleticism of the 49ers’ linebacker corps. Between Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis they have two of the top five interior linebackers in the game, both with the athleticism to cover the field from sideline to sideline. If their corners can play physical with the receivers and force their quick screens back inside, their linebackers will be able to rally to the ball and make the tackle. The pass rushing trio of Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks, and Aldon Smith will collapse the pocket around Foles and disrupt him enough to create the interceptions he has avoided thus far on the season. Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio struggled to hold down Chip Kelly’s offense when he was at Oregon, but they should have enough contacts left on Stanford’s staff to figure out how the Cardinal managed to contain the Ducks’ offense the past two seasons.

Unfavorable Matchup: Seattle Seahawks

It isn’t a coincidence that the 49ers have been thrashed each of the last two times they traveled to Seattle. Their offense does not match up well against the Seahawks’ defense. They lack burners on the outside who can run past Seattle’s large corners. Instead they put out a receiving corps of slower, more physical receivers like Boldin and Crabtree, players who aren’t used to facing defensive backs who can match them physically. In their first matchup of the year Richard Sherman pushed Boldin around the field, limiting him to one catch for seven yards. In their victory over Seattle late in the season, San Francisco was helped by a referee crew that called a number of (justified) penalties on Seattle’s secondary. If they get a similarly tight crew, they might be able to force Seattle to back off enough to open up the passing game. Up front, Seattle has the athleticism to run down San Francisco’s read option schemes. If they want to run the ball, the 49ers will have to line up with heavy backfields and try to push them around. Harbaugh is definitely willing to do this, though this is an area where they are hurt by the loss of their fullback Bruce Miller.

New Orleans Saints (11-5)

The Saints are in the playoffs, but they still have to be regretting how the season turned out. After holding Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense in check for the first 58 minutes of their Week 16 matchup, they allowed him to drive 65 yards for a game winning touchdown in the final two minutes. Because of this the Panthers won the division and earned the two seed. Had New Orleans held on, they would be sitting only an upset of the Seahawks away from a path to the Super Bowl that didn’t require them to leave the Superdome. By this point everyone knows about how much better this team is when they play at home. In the Superdome this year they were 8-0 with only two victories by less than a seven points. On the road they were 4-4, including blowout losses to the Rams and Seahawks. Sitting in the sixth seed, they would need three straight road victories to reach the Super Bowl. That isn’t going to happen.

This offense has changed very little over the past couple seasons. They still spread the field and sling the ball around to a variety of targets, and they are still near the bottom of the league in rushing offense. One notable difference is in their pass protection, which is nowhere near as good as it has been in recent years. They let left tackle Jermon Bushrod go to the Bears in free agency, and they have missed him this season, especially in recent weeks. Robert Quinn and Greg Hardy combined for five sacks in their back to back losses against the Rams and the Panthers. On the defensive side of the ball they are much better than they have been in recent years, thanks to new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. The switch to a 3-4 has allowed Cameron Jordan to blossom into one of the better defenders in the league. But it is still the weakness of their team, and they can still be exposed by powerful or athletic teams.

Favorable Matchup: Carolina Panthers

These teams played twice this season, and despite how the last game turned out New Orleans still got the better of the two matchups. Carolina needed a last minute touchdown to beat New Orleans at home, and they were thoroughly outmatched during their game in the Superdome. In their second game the Panthers were able to get pressure on Brees, but when he had time to throw he tore apart their secondary. If they can find some way to shore up their protection, perhaps returning to Charles Brown at left tackle, they can score points on the Panthers’ defense. Carolina cannot say the same. In both matchups this year the Saints managed to utterly shut down the Panthers’ offense, at least until the last drive that won Carolina the division. Because they have no reason to fear Carolina’s wide receivers, they are able to stack the box against the run and trust their corners on islands against the mediocre receivers. Unless those receivers suddenly develop an ability to create separation, it will be another long day for Cam Newton attempting to throw the football.

Unfavorable Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints’ defense does not have the athleticism to match the Eagles’ offense. There’s just no way around that. Philadelphia will spread the ball from sideline to sideline, forcing the Saints’ linebackers to play in space. They are not talented enough to corral McCoy or Jackson, and they don’t have corners physical enough to disrupt the Eagles’ timing. Philadelphia will score a lot of points, and it will be up to Brees and the offense to match them. They might be able to keep up for most of the game, but eventually their inability to run the ball will lead to them stalling on offense. This is another Wild Card Round matchup, and it is probably going to end badly for New Orleans.