2025 Quarterback Prospects

Cam Ward, Miami

Ward is my top ranked quarterback in this class, but that says more about the class than it does about him. He wouldn’t have cracked the top five in my ranking a year ago. If you asked me whether he’s going to make it long-term as an NFL starter, I’m pretty confident the answer is no. In fact, there are a couple players lower on this list who I expect will probably have better NFL careers than Ward. But none of them can touch the upside he has, the upside to become a potential top ten (if not top five) quarterback, enough that I would grudgingly take a shot with him at the end of the first round.

Ward has the physical tools of a very good quarterback. He has a strong arm that fires lasers all over the field, whether his base is beneath him or while making twisting throws on the run. He’s a good athlete as well and is someone the defense always has to worry about as a runner when plays break down. But he’s at his best creating behind the line of scrimmage. He keeps his eyes constantly down the field, and he has great instincts for how to find space to get everything out of plays. It doesn’t always look pretty—half the time he seems on the verge of falling down, and it never looks like he has any sort of plan, just mindless stumbling and running—but it works too often for there not to be some skill there.

Within structure things are far more mixed. He makes quick and sharp decisions, and this can lead to some very impressive plays, lasers fired with excellent anticipation to hit receivers in stride between closing defenders. But that only happens when he executes with good mechanics, which is a toss-up on any given play. He is lazy with his feet and doesn’t bother shifting them at the top of his drops, instead choosing to just adjust his arm angle to try to spread the ball over the field. He has the arm strength to get it out with good velocity doing this, but most of the time these balls come out nowhere near his targets. Even when he operates with good mechanics he isn’t a particularly accurate quarterback, and his refusal to do even this means that he can’t be counted on to complete even simple pass plays.

Turning Ward into an NFL quarterback will involve basically building him up from scratch, both from a mechanical and from a mental aspect. He is a wildly reckless player, and his go-to when plays don’t work out as scripted is to just fire the ball into coverage and hope for the best. Again this seems to work out with surprising frequency, but it also leads to some ugly interceptions. And his scrambling abilities are mitigated somewhat by his lack of ball security as he moves in the pocket. Ward will commit a lot of turnovers in the NFL. You just have to hope the plays he creates are enough to drown them out.

Ward’s best plays are difficult to ignore. And it’s easy to talk yourself into believing a coach can smooth over some of his weaker points. He played five years in college, but two of them were at the Division II level, where he probably wasn’t getting world-class coaching. I’m fine taking a shot on Ward, but I’m also more open than most to taking a flyer on a high-upside quarterback and living with the significant risk of him never figuring it out and never becoming even a mediocre NFL starter.

 

Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

Sanders is a relatively safe but unexciting pick. A player who can add good value for a couple years while on a rookie contract, but then will put you in an awkward position when he starts asking to get paid what veteran NFL starting quarterbacks get paid. He isn’t a long-term solution at the position, but he can hold down the fort with a good supporting cast for a few years. The sort of quarterback I’d be fine taking in the second round, maybe at the tail-end of the first to get an extra year of cost-controlled contract.

Sanders is fairly limited from a talent perspective. His arm strength is slightly below average—good enough to allow him to operate, but enough of an issue to take away some of the things you’d want to do in an offense. He can get the ball out with good zip on underneath throws, but it flags a little trying to hit intermediate windows, and he struggles to push the ball down the field as a deep passer. He has some mobility and is good at picking his spots to scramble, but he isn’t the sort of athlete that can force a defense to dedicate extra defenders to keeping him contained. He has good instincts and creativity when on the move, but again his physical limitations hold him back, as he needs time to get his base set up beneath him again before he can fire the ball on the run.

The biggest problem I have with Sanders isn’t his limitations. It’s that he seems unaware of them. He’s built like Teddy Bridgewater, but he plays like he’s Josh Allen. His offensive line at Colorado was bad, but he made them look worse, constantly drifting off his spot in the pocket in ways that opened up lanes for opposing rushers. And when things start to break down, he regularly goes into superhero mode, spinning backwards away from pressure and trying to extend plays as long as possible. More often than not he isn’t able to escape, and he frequently will turn what should be a seven yard sack or a throwaway into a fifteen yard loss.

Some of this can be blamed on the situation, playing on a team with a shaky supporting cast where the only hope for offense was for him to bail them out. In the NFL he needs a coach who will do a better job telling him to quit messing around and stand in the pocket, where he is at his best. Within structure he has a good understanding of what’s happening in front of him, and he does a very good job attacking the middle of the field, throwing with excellent precision, timing, and anticipation to hit receivers in the perfect windows to allow yards after the catch. He’s an accurate passer, and he is unafraid of pressure, willing to stand in the face of it and take a hit to deliver the ball where it needs to go. The makeup of a league-average NFL starter is there. He just needs to accept that’s all he’s ever going to be, and the team drafting him needs to accept that as well.

 

Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Milroe is another where you’re just drafting him hoping for the unlikely scenario where he puts it all together. The tools are certainly there, the most impressive athleticism and one of the best arms in the class, and when he’s rolling he looks like a genuine superstar. He’s a very streaky player, and his performance against Georgia was probably the best single game of any quarterback I watched this year. Unfortunately, his performance against Tennessee was probably the worst single game I watched. When he’s on, he’s a nightmare to defend. When he’s off, he looks like he belongs nowhere near an NFL field as a quarterback.

The best tool Milroe has to work with is his athleticism. He is a genuinely special runner of the football, with 4.4 speed that can erase angles and the quickness to make defenders look stupid in the open field. If he was willing to change positions, I genuinely think he would belong in the day 2 conversation as either a running back or a wide receiver. Whether as a scrambler or on designed runs, his ability to tuck and run will be a dynamic weapon for an offense.

As a passer there is just enough there to make me think that maybe he can develop, though probably not enough to justify putting him on the field for long enough for him to actually put it together. He shows the ability to drop back and go through his reads, not getting stuck on his first receiver or bailing from the pocket too quickly. But he frequently makes the wrong decisions on these reads, missing a defender dropping into a zone and firing the ball into trouble because of this. The process is good though, and with more experience and repetition, maybe he can start to pick up on those things. He’s reasonably young at 22 years old, and he has significantly fewer career pass attempts than all but one of the other quarterbacks I looked at. This means that maybe he has more room to grow, and that the quarterback he is now is still a long way from the finished product.

But even if he does progress mentally, there are enough other warts in his game that it is hard for me to buy that he’ll put it all together. He’s the least accurate of the quarterbacks I looked at, and while accuracy can be improved in the NFL—most of the league’s best quarterbacks right now were guys who I had accuracy concerns about in college—it’s hard to keep even a developmental quarterback on the field when he can’t make the right decisions or connect on the passes when he does. The path for Milroe to succeed will require living through two or three years of spectacular plays alternating with egregious misses and ugly turnovers. If he can make it through this, he has the potential to be a true game-altering force for an offense. But the odds of this are slim enough that even I wouldn’t want to take him until the third round.

 

Will Howard, Ohio State

Howard is a smooth and reliable operator within the structure of the offense. When the read is simple and the play is straightforward, the ball comes out with good timing and accuracy. He hits his receivers right as they come out of their breaks, in stride to allow yards after the catch. His misses within structure are rare, and he is able to alternate between lasers and touch as needed. His physical tools aren’t spectacular, but they are solidly above average, with a strong arm that can hit every part of the field and enough mobility to at least keep defenses honest watching him as a running threat.

The problems with Howard come when the play isn’t as clean as it is designed on paper. He’s pretty good moving behind the line of scrimmage, able to slide into open space to extend plays where he has decent creativity operating outside of structure. At times he can be too quick to drop his eyes and take off running, but he also makes a handful of nice plays down the field. If he’s able to move and escape the pocket, he’s good enough to frustrate the defense, if not terrify them.

When he can’t escape the pocket, things get ugly. The accuracy I mentioned disappears when he has pressure in his face, as he tends to fade away from throws robbing them of precision and velocity. He usually has a pretty good sense for where his checkdowns are, but a couple times a game he will just lock in on a single receiver, throwing the sort of passes that lead to extremely ugly interceptions. He doesn’t go deep into his progressions from the pocket, either throwing it to his first or second read and then going immediately to his checkdown.

Howard is a safe pick as a high-floor, low-ceiling quarterback prospect. He does enough little things well that I’d trust him to run my offense, but doesn’t have enough high-level ability for me to ever feel happy with him as my starter. He has a good arm, but he doesn’t throw a very good deep ball to force defenses to stretch the field. He’s an aggressive runner that is difficult to tackle, but he isn’t going to run away from anyone. He’s an older prospect who seems to have picked up the basics of executing an offense but hasn’t figured out any of the advanced stuff. He takes what the offense provides him, and doesn’t provide much more on top of that.

In short, he’s either one of the best backups in the league or one of the worst starters. If I was just gauging by average outcome, he’d be higher on this list, probably competing with Sanders for the top spot. But I just don’t place much value on even a good backup quarterback, and without the slim potential to develop into a starting quarterback that the three above him have, I can’t justify taking Howard until the fourth round.

 

Tyler Shough, Louisville

The recent changes in eligibility rules have meant that I’ve spent a lot of time over the past couple years talking about how old quarterbacks are. But even by the standards of past players like Kenny Pickett and Bo Nix, Shough is at another level. Shough is 25 years old, and just completed his seventh year playing college football across three different schools. He was the backup to Justin Herbert at Oregon, and he’s older than both Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance.

The weird thing is, Shough doesn’t have the same profile as most of the other older quarterbacks I’ve studied. Most of them have been guys with somewhat uninspiring physical tools who hung around long enough to become sharp, efficient operators of college offenses, making quick decisions and distributing the ball to pick apart defenses piece by piece. Shough is surprisingly not that advanced. Part of that is experience. It wasn’t until his final year in college that he started a full season, after having multiple others cut short by injury. But it is concerning that he reached this age and still seems to struggle with progressing through his reads and operating with clean mechanics.

If Shough was younger though, the talent would definitely intrigue me. He probably has the best arm in this class. He throws a gorgeous deep ball, arcing with elegant touch to hit the perfect window down the sideline and giving his receivers opportunities to make plays on the ball even when they’re covered. He is also fantastic at throwing from awkward platforms, contorting his body and his arm angle to find throwing windows no matter what’s happening around him.

He isn’t much of a runner, but he’s a good athlete extending plays behind the line, and very good at finding and hitting open receivers down the field. His quick release and flexible arm also mean that he almost never takes sacks. He always knows where his checkdown is, and he always is able to get the ball out towards him, though at times he can be a bit reckless doing so, and it would probably be better if he learned to occasionally swallow the play.

There’s potential here with Shough, but also a lot to clean up. His arm strength sometimes works against him, as he can get sloppy with his mechanics trusting this to bail him out, leading to inaccuracy. He will get stuck on one receiver too often, and at times fire the ball into coverage. But when things are working, his best plays are up there with anyone in the class. If it weren’t for the age, he’s exactly the sort of quarterback I’d love to take a gamble on in the hopes that he can develop. But betting on a 25 year old player to take a leap forward is a pretty long-shot gamble, which is why I’d probably still wait until day 3 to  make that wager.

 

Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

Dart is a frustrating quarterback to try to evaluate. He comes out of one of those college systems that ask basically nothing of their quarterback mentally, just running a handful of basic concepts and trusting him to make the right choice before the snap and get the ball out of his hands quickly. This sort of offense has very little to do with what’s going to be asked of him in the NFL, and makes it hard to know what he’s actually capable of. A year ago I probably underestimated Bo Nix coming out of a similar system, as he showed more ability once he was asked to do so. And it’s possible Dart could be hiding similar talent.

There certainly are things to like about Dart. The ball comes out with a lot of zip, and he isn’t afraid to fire it into tight windows in the intermediate range when the read is there. He’s a good athlete too, a threat to take off and run with quickness to make people miss in space to create extra yardage. He mostly uses this athleticism as a runner, though a couple times he did flash the ability to make impressive throws on the run. The hope would be that with more development he does a better job keeping his eyes downfield rather than instantly tucking and running. And there is room for development. He’s the youngest of the quarterbacks I’ve studied, and perhaps time in a real offensive system would allow him to grow in ways he hasn’t been able to yet.

There is talent here, but it isn’t overwhelming talent of the sort I’d be willing to take a gamble to unlock. His strong arm doesn’t translate well to deep throws, where he consistently leaves them short and off target. He’s another who thinks he’s a great athlete while being just a good one, and he has no idea how to manage a pocket, frequently running into more trouble trying to extend a play when his first read isn’t there.

There are the tools of a starting quarterback here, but the path to reach that point is very long, and even then I think the best case scenario is simply an average passer. He isn’t very accurate, his mechanics fall to pieces if his first read is covered, and while he does a good job taking care of the ball, he creates enough negative plays scrambling behind the line to make up for it. I’d plan to take him in the fifth round, with the goal of making him a backup with some chance of surprising you down the line.

 

Kyle McCord, Syracuse

McCord has good size and good arm strength, and operating from the pocket he can fire the ball all over the field, with tight lasers hitting narrow windows over the middle and bombs soaring down the sidelines. He’s a smooth operator when he gets the ball out of his hand in a hurry, hitting the top of his drop and firing with anticipation on throws over the middle of the field. When things are clean, he can execute an offense.

McCord is the least mobile of the quarterbacks I studied, and that greatly limits his ceiling. He operates almost exclusively from within the pocket. His feel for that space comes and goes, as he shows moments of understanding how to maneuver in space while keeping his base beneath him to extend a play for a couple extra seconds. But he also has plays where he stumbles into trouble, and while it’s never too bad—he doesn’t take any 15 yard sacks trying to scramble backwards—it still limits how much he can bring to the offense.

Even as a pure passer there are enough warts to make me think he’s a long way from being reliable on an NFL field. He has a good feel for zone coverage and can fire the ball into windows as they open up, but when he guesses wrong he doesn’t have the ability to abort and adjust the play, and will throw the ball into a defender’s waiting arms. Against man coverage he seems to get stuck on his first option, picking a receiver with a one-on-one matchup and throwing it to him whether he wins or not. Sometimes he displays nice touch to let them go up and make a play on the ball, but just as often he fires the ball wildly off target with no chance of anyone making a play.

McCord is another who will never be anything more than a backup, and I think it will take a couple of years in an NFL system before I would even count on him being that. In the long-run he can settle in as someone you can count on to keep things steady for a game or two, but who you would never want for stretches longer than that. I’d take him in the fifth or sixth round, and stash him as my emergency quarterback until I’m comfortable with him being one snap away from finding his way onto the field.