Here
is the second of my two mock drafts, this one attempting to predict what is
actually going to happen. I think I have a handle on the first few picks, but
after that things feel even more wide open than normal.
1) Tennessee Titans – Cam Ward, QB, Miami
It’s
become increasingly clear over the past couple weeks that a decent chunk of the
NFL—including, most importantly, the Titans—feels that Ward is a quarterback
prospect worthy of the first overall pick. I don’t particularly agree, but I
can see the upside in his best plays on the field, and he’ll certainly bring
some excitement to a franchise that always seems to lack it.
2) Cleveland Browns – Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
I
think this pick feels pretty set in stone as well. The Browns have been pretty
open about their love for Hunter, and I don’t think this is some smoke signal
to suggest they’re trying to trade the pick. It sounds like they see him having
more potential at wide receiver, but will also mix him in on defense. I don’t
agree, but I definitely think he can be a valuable player following that route
as well.
3) New York Giants – Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
This
is the first place where the draft feels interesting. This pick is between two
players, whether they try to plug their hole at quarterback with someone of
slightly lesser talent than most top 5 quarterbacks, or take the supremely
gifted pass rusher Carter at a position of lesser need. I think, in the end,
they won’t be sold enough on Sanders to pass up on someone with Carter’s gifts,
and will kick the can down the road at the quarterback position for another
year.
4) New England Patriots – Will Campbell, OG/OT, LSU
The
Patriots are praying that two quarterbacks go above them so they can get one of
Hunter or Carter. If that doesn’t happen, they’ll grab an offensive lineman. Campbell
isn’t my favorite of the line prospects, but most of the reporting has him as
New England’s preference.
5) Jacksonville Jaguars – Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
The
closer we get to the draft, the more confident I am that someone is going to
take a gamble with Jeanty. He’s one of the few elite talents in a year that is
weak at the top of the class, and even as the value of the position has
declined, NFL teams have shown a willingness to throw that aside for special
talents. I’m not convinced it will actually be the Jaguars, but someone will
take Jeanty in the top seven, even if it costs a couple of picks to trade up to
do so.
6) Las Vegas Raiders – Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
McMillan
is a somewhat polarizing prospect, but I think there’s a decent chance some
team in the top ten falls in love with his size and his surprising movement
skills. In this case the Raiders are looking for any sort of young talent to
plug into their offense, and I think it’s slightly more likely they go this
route than grab a lineman.
7) New York Jets – Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
The
Jets took an offensive tackle in the first round last year, and I could see
them trying to get some variety by going after someone like Tyler Warren. But
Membou is a rare athlete, and you can never have too many talented young
linemen, especially when you’re trying to build back the foundation of a team
from scratch.
8) Carolina Panthers – Jalon Walker, LB/EDGE, Georgia
This
seems like one of the most common linkages of player and team heading into the
draft. I don’t understand it, but I do believe it. Walker doesn’t have a clear
position at the next level, but I guess that works, because Carolina needs help
at pretty much every position.
9) New Orleans Saints – Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
Ever
since it was announced that Derek Carr may miss the season, people have been
speculating this could be a place to see a quarterback go. If Shedeur Sanders
doesn’t go to the Giants, this is the next logical landing spot for him
(Raiders or Jets could grab him, but they just made multi-year commitments to
veterans in the offseason). Except I don’t think it’s really that logical. The
Saints need a quarterback, but they also need pretty much everything else. The
smart thing to do would be not to jump at a mediocre prospect, but to wait with
the expectation they’ll be picking higher next year. Of course, it’s the Saints,
so smart decisions aren’t really their thing (see the Carr trade, the Carr
extension, etc.)
10) Chicago Bears – Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Warren
is an odd prospect, and while I don’t think much of him, I think someone is
going to talk themselves into getting the ultimate gadget player. Ben Johnson
comes over from Detroit, where he saw the value that a young, versatile tight
end can provide for an offense. I don’t think Warren is anywhere near as good a
receiver as Sam LaPorta, but he’d certainly have opportunities to prove me
wrong in a Bears offense without a lot of playmaking options.
11) San Francisco 49ers – Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss
Nolen
has a wild range of possibilities. He’s a player with tremendous gifts but also
some clear red flags, and I could see him either sneaking into the top ten or
sliding out of the first round entirely. San Francisco lost a couple of pieces
from their interior defensive line to free agency, and this seems like the sort
of gamble they’d be willing to make.
12) Dallas Cowboys – Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Golden
is the sort of wide receiver who always goes higher than he should. 4.3 speed
is hard to ignore, and he does enough other things well in the passing game
that I think he can grow into a more complete receiver. Having him stretching
the field should hopefully open up things for CeeDee Lamb as well, giving the
Cowboys offense a chance to bounce back with the coaching change.
13) Miami Dolphins – Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas
Miami
has some pieces to like on their offensive line, but it still hasn’t translated
to a reliable unit. Banks won’t solve all of those issues, but he’ll at least
give them something solid at one of their tackle spots. They could also address
the defensive line as well, but with the way the draft has worked out, there’s
more value on the offensive line at this point than on the defense.
14) Indianapolis Colts – Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
The
Colts have a lot of interesting weapons in the passing game, but they still
have a glaring hole at tight end. Loveland would give them another target to
help out whoever is playing quarterback, while also potentially bringing the
versatility to open a few more things up in the running game.
15) Atlanta Falcons – Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
Atlanta
has been trying to find some semblance of a pass rush for nearly twenty years. Williams
won’t solve all their issues overnight, but he’s a rock-solid player with
impressive physical tools that will give them a foundation to build around. Outside
of quarterback I’m not sure there’s a position that wouldn’t make sense for
Atlanta to address—they have a lot of solid players, but no real depth at any
position group.
16) Arizona Cardinals – Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Arizona’s
in a similar place where they just need bodies on defense. Barron has impressed
enough in the draft process that I think he’s leapt Will Johnson to be the
second cornerback off the board. He’s a fantastic athlete with experience in a
range of positional alignments. Still a little rough around the edges, but
Arizona is a good place for him to develop and grow.
17) Cincinnati Bengals – Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
One
other pattern I’ve noticed over the years is that giant defensive tackles
always go higher than I think they should. Grant isn’t the physical specimen
that players like Vita Vea and Jordan Davis were, but he shows some intriguing
movement skills on the field to go along with his massive size. The Bengals
defense was a catastrophe in every phase a year ago, and while I’m not sure
Grant offers much in the way of immediate improvement, he would at least give
them someone with potential to develop.
18) Seattle Seahawks – Grey Zabel, OG/OT, North Dakota State
The
offensive linemen could go off the board in a hurry on Thursday, but I see more
of a slow rollout, which works perfectly for a Seahawks team that is looking
for immediate improvement. I think Zabel is the one they’ll identify as the
best fit, thanks to his versatility and experience playing at the interior
positions to give them an immediate boost in that area.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
This
is another player and team combination that has been rumored quite a bit.
Campbell is an explosive athlete in the middle of the field with some
experience bouncing out to the edge as a pass rusher, and he is a good fit for
a defensive play caller like Todd Bowles who loves to use every tool at his
disposal to throw pressure at the opposing quarterback.
20) Denver Broncos – TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
Jeanty
is not going to be the only running back to go in the first round. I expect to
see 2 or 3 taken by the end of the night, and while Henderson may be a bit of a
surprise as the second off the board, he is a good fit for what the Broncos
want to do with this offense. His abilities as a receiver out of the backfield
and a rock solid pass protector will open up a lot of options for Sean Payton,
as he had in New Orleans with Alvin Kamara.
21) Pittsburgh Steelers – Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
I
don’t think Sanders is going to be here at 21, but I think there’s a decent
chance the Steelers end up with him. I think he’ll probably go in the 15-20
range, as someone trades up to grab him. The Steelers are in the best position
to do so, though don’t rule out a team like Cleveland or New York jumping back
in from the start of the second round. But since I don’t forecast trades, I
think the Steelers would happily take him if he slides into their lap.
22) Los Angeles Chargers – Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
As
you fill out a mock draft things can sometimes surprise you. I have a general
feeling that Harmon is going to go higher than this, but I couldn’t find a
place that made a ton of sense for him to go. So the Chargers will happily snap
him up, giving them a pass rushing menace on a defense that made major strides
last year but relied on a lot of aging players to get quarterbacks on the
ground.
23) Green Bay Packers – Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Johnson
slides a little on concerns about his physical toolset. The Packers are a team
that typically prefers excellent athletes, but I think they’d make an exception
for someone with Johnson’s size and ball skills at a position of desperate
need.
24) Minnesota Vikings – Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
A
couple years ago the Vikings passed on a safety with good tape but questions about
his measurables, preferring to trade back and select Lewis Cine rather than
taking Kyle Hamilton. That decision hasn’t aged well, and I think this year
they’ll just grab the guy who looks good on tape, measurables be damned. Starks
isn’t the fastest or the quickest safety, but he has good instincts and strong
coverage skills that will make him a solid starter for years.
25) Houston Texans – Josh Conerly, OT, Oregon
This
scenario works out pretty perfectly for Houston, with two of the top tier of
offensive linemen falling into their laps. If they go off faster on draft night
the Texans may need to trade up to make sure they get their guy, but if things
unfold this way they will happily stay put and let Conerly fall to them. He’s
still a bit raw, and there are enough other problems that the Texans line is
still going to be a disaster this year. But a couple years from now, they might
have something to work with.
26) Los Angeles Rams – Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
The
next tackle goes off the board a pick later. Simmons drops a little because of
his injury, but his tape is good, and all indications are that he is making a
solid recovery. The Rams have made it clear that they don’t rely too much on
high draft picks making an immediate impact, so if they have to wait a year for
Simmons to crack the starting lineup, they aren’t going to press any panic
buttons.
27) Baltimore Ravens – Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina
Back-to-back
injured players off the board. The Ravens are another team that will happily
grab a player who slid some because of injury and trust that they can bring him
along slowly. Revel has the ability to erase opposing receivers in press
coverage, and while his torn ACL could slow down his transition to the NFL, he
has the potential to become a top-end starter in a couple of years.
28) Detroit Lions – Tyler Booker, OG, Alabama
The
Lions have built their team on the strength of their offensive line, but they’re
starting to show some cracks in the middle. Booker has his limitations a
player, but for a team that would gladly pound the ball between the tackles for
ten straight plays if it was working, his ability to blow defenders backwards
off the line of scrimmage will definitely have its appeals.
29) Washington Commanders – Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Hampton
makes sense as a first round running back from a purely physical perspective.
He’s big, he’s fast, and he does enough good things as a rusher to make you believe
he can do even more. It might be a slightly strange stylistic fit with the
wide-open spread offense that Kliff Kingsbury likes to run, but I think running
back is definitely on the table, and Hampton is the most talented one available
here.
30) Buffalo Bills – Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss
The
Bills need help desperately on the back end, and Amos is a name that has been
shooting up draft boards for the past couple weeks. He’s another cornerback
with good size and good speed, and the Bills need to take another shot after whiffing
on Kaiir Elam a couple years ago.
31) Kansas City Chiefs – Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
Offensive
line would make a lot of sense here as well, but with most of the big names off
the board I think the Chiefs would choose to grab the best player available
rather than reaching for a lineman. Emmanwori is a special athlete who shows
flashes of what that athleticism can accomplish on the field. Plugged into Steve
Spagnuolo’s defense, he could be a genuine difference-maker if fully unleashed
to attack.
32) Philadelphia Eagles – Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
Stewart
is one it’s really hard to pin down. I could see him being a top ten pick, or I
could see him falling out of the first round entirely. The Eagles feel like a
good team to take the gamble on him. They lost Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, and
Milton Williams this offseason, so they need some fresh blood on their
defensive line. And if Stewart pans out, he could allow them to sustain the
dominance along the front that won them the Super Bowl.
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