2024 Mock Draft

Typically when I do mock drafts I prepare two versions: what I think will actually happen, and what would happen if I was making all the picks. This year, however, I didn’t watch enough draft prospects to put together a full first round of what would happen if I was in charge. But I think I can come up with a reasonable top 20, so I’ve included that here.

 

If I Was In Charge

1) Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC

2) Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

3) New England Patriots – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

4) Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State

5) Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

6) New York Giants – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

7) Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

8) Atlanta Falcons – Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

9) Chicago Bears – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

10) New York Jets – Taliese Fuaga, OT/OG, Oregon State

11) Minnesota Vikings – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

12) Denver Broncos – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

13) Las Vegas Raiders – Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington

14) New Orleans Saints – Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

15) Indianapolis Colts – Brian Thomas, WR, LSU

16) Seattle Seahawks – Byron Murphy, DT, Texas

17) Jacksonville Jaguars – Olu Fashanu, OT/OG, Penn State

18) Cincinnati Bengals – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

19) Los Angeles Rams – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

20) Pittsburgh Steelers – Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa

 

 

And now here is how I think things will actually go.

 

What Will Actually Happen

1) Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC

As in most years, the first overall selection has been set in stone for a couple of months now. Williams is not without flaws, but the things he can do throwing a football are extraordinarily rare, and if he can develop, the Bears may finally have a real quarterback for the first time since Sid Luckman. He’s entering a good situation as well, with a developing offensive line and a pair of quality veteran receivers (coaching is still a concern, but no situation is perfect).

 

2) Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

This has also been the favorite at this selection for a long time, and even though there has been some buzz from the other two quarterback prospects in the past week, I’m still sticking with Daniels as the guy here. He fits what Kliff Kingsbury wants to do on offense (what he wants to do is dumb, but it still fits), and he has a safer floor than either of the two who will go below him, at the bare minimum an accurate distributor with explosive running ability.

 

3) New England Patriots – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

This is where things get interesting. The Patriots need a quarterback, but they also need a lot of things. And having just watched Mac Jones fail in part due to a horrendous supporting cast, they may be wary about throwing another quarterback into an even worse situation. If the right trade package comes—at a minimum three first round picks, probably even four—they could choose to slide down and try to build a better supporting environment for when they finally do get their quarterback. But I think the most likely course is to stay here and take the high upside of Maye.

 

4) Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State

Arizona could trade too, but Harrison is probably too much to pass up. He is a pretty much sure thing superstar at a position they desperately need. If they choose to stay in this spot, there’s really no other pick to be made. The Cardinals already have an extra first round pick, so they’re a team that can afford to pass up on draft capital for a shot at a player who can define their roster for the next decade.

 

5) TRADE – Minnesota Vikings (from Chargers) – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

I’ve never predicted a trade in a mock draft before. Trades happen, obviously, but I’ve always felt that predicting them takes away the fun of a mock draft, which is trying to slot players within the confines of the draft order. I’m making an exception this time though. Maybe it’s because I believe there’s a better than 50/50 chance someone moves up to grab the fourth quarterback. Or maybe it’s because the most likely team is my favorite, and I want to see them get that quarterback.

Either way, I think the Vikings do move into the top five, and I think the Chargers are the most likely destination. The cost for this will likely be both of Minnesota’s first round picks this year, plus some additional compensation (maybe their first next year, though that seems a bit rich.)

Whatever the cost is, they’ll pay it to get McCarthy. The Vikings are a team that is perfectly situated to support a young quarterback, and they know that if they don't get one of the top four, there isn’t really another opportunity available (this year or maybe even next year). I think their preference would be for Maye, and they will try everything they can to get high enough to select him. But McCarthy fits what they want to do as well, even if he doesn’t have the same limitless potential.

 

6) New York Giants – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Giants are another team that is rumored to want a quarterback, and if one of the top four slides to this spot I could see them pulling the trigger. But I think they may be overselling it with their public comments about wanting a quarterback, potentially trying to make sure that one of the top two receivers is available when they pick. I’m not one of the people who believes Nabers is on the same level as Harrison, but he’s an explosive player with the potential to break the game open anytime he has the ball in his hands, the sort of player the Giants have been trying to find for years.

 

7) Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

This is a common linkage of team and player, because it just makes sense. Even after landing a solid piece in Peter Skoronski a year ago the Titans still have glaring holes on their offensive line, and if they really believe Will Levis deserves a shot, they need to give him some protection up front. Alt is the clear best lineman in this class, and I could see him going even higher than this. But if he’s here, the Titans will happily take him.

 

8) Atlanta Falcons – Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

This is commonly expected to be the first defensive player off the board, though it’s pretty wide open which the Falcons will choose. They could go for one of the top cornerbacks, or take a defensive tackle as the heir apparent to Grady Jarrett, or even choose a different edge rusher than the one I have slotted here. They are even a decent candidate to slide down, as there are a handful of players on that side of the ball I could see them liking. But I think Turner’s impressive athletic testing makes him the most likely choice, even if he hasn’t shown a great deal on film.

 

9) Chicago Bears – Byron Murphy, DT, Texas

The most common position mocked to the Bears here is wide receiver, with the idea that they would pair Williams with a young talent who can grow with him. But at their core the people running the Bears still put a heavy value on defense, and they may feel that with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen they can afford to wait on what is considered a deep receiver class. I think they will try to bolster the defensive side of the ball, where they showed growth over the second half of 2023 but still lack a disruptive force on the interior.

 

10) New York Jets – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Odunze isn’t going to last long if the Bears pass on him. The Jets could go a number of different directions with this pick, but I feel like the offensive side of the ball is most likely, and Odunze is probably the best-case scenario in their minds. His skillset might be a bit redundant in the short-term with Mike Williams, but in the long-run he and Garrett Wilson can form a dynamic pair for whatever comes next at quarterback when the Aaron Rodgers experiment runs its course.

 

11) Los Angeles Chargers (from Minnesota) – JC Latham, OG, Alabama

The Chargers desperately need to improve their offensive line and their wide receivers, and I think they use their first pick to address the former. Jim Harbaugh has always had a bit of a run-heavy approach, and his time at Michigan only pounded that in deeper. And Latham is the best run blocker in the draft, a powerful people-mover who will struggle in pass protection if they try to keep him on the outside.

 

12) Denver Broncos – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

It’s easy to imagine a team falling in love with Bowers and taking him in the top ten. It’s also easy to imagine teams being wary of an undersized tight end and letting him slide into the 20s. The Broncos feel like a team that could fall in love with him though. They would love to add a quarterback, but with their limited draft capital and barren roster, a trade up is probably a stretch. So instead they’ll load up on weapons so they’re more ready for whenever they can get their hands on a real quarterback.

 

13) Las Vegas Raiders – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

The Raiders are another team that wants a quarterback and could look into reaching for one here, or trying to trade back in the hope they could get the same player later in the first round. If they stay put though, their best option is to just grab the best player available. Mitchell is a high upside cornerback with tremendous athletic ability, and he could be a very valuable asset in a division with two top-level quarterbacks.

 

14) New Orleans Saints – Taliese Fuaga, OT/OG, Oregon State

One of the hardest things to predict in this draft is the order in which the offensive linemen will come off the board. I feel reasonably confident that is the position the Saints are going to address, but I could see as many as five different players that could be their guy here. Fuaga seems the safest bet though, a polished player with good athleticism and positional versatility.

 

15) Indianapolis Colts – Olu Fashanu, OT/OG, Penn State

The Colts are still building everything around Anthony Richardson, and that means getting him as much help as possible. A receiving threat could be the play here, but with the way the board falls I think they’ll go for one of the linemen instead. In this case I’ll give them Fashanu, who has been sliding down boards some over the past couple months as people pick apart his game, but whose physical potential will be enough to keep him from falling too far.

 

16) Seattle Seahawks – Michael Penix, QB, Washington

Penix is probably the hardest player to forecast in the draft. It’s easy to imagine a team talking themselves into him if they can’t get one of the top four quarterbacks, and he could end up going even higher than this. Or he could slide out of the first round entirely. I think the most likely place for him is somewhere in the 20s to a team jumping up from the early second round, but Seattle is a destination that makes some sense as well. Geno Smith’s contract gets too expensive after this season, and Penix reminds me a bit of Smith stylistically, so it would be a sensible, if uninspiring, transition.

 

17) Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas, WR, LSU

The Jaguars let Calvin Ridley walk in free agency, so a receiving corps that was already holding their young quarterback back is now an even more glaring need. I could see them trying to trade up to grab Odunze, but if they stay put the best option available is Thomas. He is extremely gifted physically and will become an immediate weapon as a vertical threat, though there is plenty of risk if he can’t develop a more complete game.

 

18) Cincinnati Bengals – Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington

Cincinnati has spent the past couple years reinforcing their offensive line through free agency, and they now have a pair of massive bookend tackles to help keep Joe Burrow upright. But I don’t think that will necessarily stop them from adding another piece on the interior. They could also look to add a receiver here with the possible loss of Tee Higgins coming, but I think they’d be more likely to go on the defensive side, if they don’t have a lineman like Fautanu available for them.

 

19) Los Angeles Rams – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

The last player the Rams selected in the first round was Jared Goff, so there are no real tendencies to study here. A quarterback isn’t out of the question, but I think the most likely course is for them to try to add to their young and unproven defense. No one can replace Aaron Donald, but Latu would at least give them someone who can threaten the quarterback. He should go higher than this, but he plays with a unique style and has some past injury issues that will likely scare teams away from his undeniable ability.

 

20) Pittsburgh Steelers – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

A year ago the Steelers used their first round pick on a raw but talented tackle out of Georgia. This year I think they will use the pick on an even more talented but even rawer tackle out of Georgia. Mims is massive and can move extremely well. He also only had eight career starts in college. It’s possible the Steelers could prioritize someone with more experience—Graham Barton would make sense, if they want to try to fill their hole at center as well—but the Steelers have often prioritized athletic upside in the draft, and Mims has plenty of that.

 

21) Miami Dolphins – Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

The Dolphins lost Christian Wilkins in the offseason, and they should waste no time replacing him if they have a shot at Newton. They have some promising pieces up front on defense if they can stay healthy, and Newton would give them another dangerous pass rusher to bolster that depth and give them a shot at slowing down the dangerous quarterbacks they will have to go through in the AFC.

 

22) Philadelphia Eagles – Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa

Getting younger on the offensive line would be a good move, but Philadelphia almost has to go defense with this pick after the way that unit crumbled down the stretch in 2023. DeJean is a somewhat tricky prospect who doesn't have a clearly defined role yet in the NFL, the Eagles could use help at pretty much every spot in their secondary.

 

23) Los Angeles Chargers (from Vikings) – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

The Chargers use their first pick on offensive line, and with their second they get a wide receiver. Most people have a couple other receivers ranked ahead of Worthy, but fast receivers always go earlier than expected in the draft, and after setting a record at the Combine in the 40 yard dash, it would be a surprise if Worthy doesn’t end up somewhere in the first round.

 

24) Dallas Cowboys – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

The Cowboys mostly ignored free agency, which means they now find themselves with a lot of holes needing filled. A second wide receiver across from CeeDee Lamb probably isn’t the biggest of them, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt, and Mitchell has incredibly impressive tools that will be hard to ignore.

 

25) Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Death, taxes, the Packers spending a first-round pick on the defensive side of the ball. They could definitely choose to try to add more talent to their offense, but that is a unit with a lot of young players who showed promise last year, so I expect them to give them room to grow. Instead they will address their secondary, where Eric Stokes has been simply okay his first three years and Jaire Alexander seems to be slowly working his way towards the exit.

 

26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

This is a bit of a slide for Verse, but I think his somewhat limited upside will hurt him on draft night. The Buccaneers will happily take him, though. Shaq Barrett is in Miami now, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka hasn’t shown he has what it takes to be a team’s primary pass rusher. Verse brings impressive power and a developed array of attacks, and he should be able to contribute fairly quickly for a team that is hoping to stay perched at the top of the NFC South.

 

27) Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

The Cardinals used their first pick to add a dynamic offensive threat, so with this one I expect they’ll go defensive. They have very little talent on that side of the ball, and bringing in an explosive pass rusher will help everyone else on the unit. Robinson is small for the position, but his athletic ability is rare, and that should be enough to get him into the first round.

 

28) Buffalo Bills – Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

As with the offensive linemen above, there is a big cluster of receivers around this range who could go in just about any order. Legette seems like one who could really stand out from the pack, an extremely physical receiver who thrives on contested catches and running with the ball in his hands. The Bills are almost certainly going to try to add someone for Josh Allen to throw to, and the only real question is whether they are patient enough to see who will fall to them.

 

29) Detroit Lions – Darius Robinson, DT/EDGE, Missouri

Cornerback is the position that makes the most sense for the Lions, but as they showed a year ago, they don’t really care about what makes sense. Robinson is a massive athlete who can bounce to multiple spots on their defensive line, giving them even more flexibility to slide Aidan Hutchinson around and let him work attacking the interior where he’s at his best.

 

30) Baltimore Ravens – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The Ravens have struggled to keep their offensive line healthy and effective for a couple of years now, and they badly need an injection of youth and athleticism. Guyton certainly has those in supply, even if he still needs to figure other things out. The Ravens have the luxury of letting a first round draft pick sit on the bench while they teach him, either to learn for a year or to come in after what feels like another inevitable Ronnie Stanley injury.

 

31) San Francisco 49ers – Graham Barton, OT/OG/OC, Duke

San Francisco put together an elite offense a season ago with a mostly mediocre offensive line. I’m not sure where exactly Barton would slide in, but he has the experience and athleticism to be an immediate contributor at several different spots. The 49ers could also use help in their secondary, but at this point in the draft Barton is a talent that they will gladly take.

 

32) Kansas City Chiefs – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

We’ve spent the past few years saying that the Chiefs really needed to get some receiver help for Patrick Mahomes, and they have kept declining to do so, and it has all worked out perfectly fine. But I could see this being the year they finally bite the bullet and do it. McConkey is the sort of vertical game changer they’ve been lacking since they traded away Tyreek Hill, and he should have an easy path to becoming a major contributor.