2024 Defensive Prospects

Defensive Front

Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

Newton is the premier defensive player in this class, and I really don’t understand why he isn’t a lock to go in the top ten. The biggest criticism you can make of him is that he is a bit small for a defensive tackle, standing only 6-2 with short arms. But he still has good weight at 304 pounds, and he doesn’t get pushed around too much as a point-of-attack defender. Adding a little strength to be able to hold his ground better would definitely be a nice addition, but it’s not going to hold him back from becoming a high-level NFL player.

Newton boasts rare quickness for someone his size, and he combines that with excellent hand usage to enable him to shed blockers and then race around them into the backfield. He covers a lot of ground laterally and can make plays in the backfield in both run defense and as a pass rusher. The only thing that could stop him from being an elite sack producer is that he occasionally struggles to finish plays, and even then he’s still able to force the quarterback off his spot and disrupt the play.

The one area of the game that I think Newton can really improve is explosiveness. He has plays every now and then where he fires off the ball and shoots through a gap deep into the backfield, showing that he is capable of doing this. But most of the time he plays a bit more passively, coming out of his stance upward and prioritizing hand-fighting. He’s very good at this as well, and I think if he can find a better balance between these approaches he can keep opposing linemen off-balance the entire game, allowing him to be a true destructive force on the front line of the defense.

 

Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

With Latu I can at least kind of understand the people who are lower on him than I am. He is a very unique player who wins in unique ways, and it’s reasonable to worry how that will translate to the NFL. Latu isn’t the traditional speed edge rusher, and his first step up the field is simply not very good. He can occasionally win around the edge using his strength and his aggressive hands, and when he does get the edge he shows pretty impressive bend to get back to the quarterback. But he'll be facing better tackles in the NFL, most of whom won’t have any trouble beating Latu with their drops.

Of course, staying in front of Latu after these initial couple of steps is pretty much impossible. His quickness and flexibility are unmatched in the draft class, and combined with his excellent hands that makes it virtually impossible for a blocker to sustain contact. He’s even more dangerous in tight spaces rushing against guards, and there will be opposing linemen who simply can’t handle what he brings to the table.

So the question becomes whether the first-step explosion can be developed, or if it is simply missing from his game. It’s hard for me to believe that someone this explosive with his second and third steps can’t find a way to harness something similar with his first, but it’s also hard to buy it when the evidence is nowhere on film. Even if this doesn’t develop, I think he can become a very good player, and probably worth a selection in the top ten. But there’s also a pretty good chance this limits his ceiling, and he’ll have to settle for being simply a good player rather than a great one.

 

Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

Verse fits the mold of a traditional pass rusher better than Latu, while still having a fair number of shortcomings as well. His burst off the ball is decent, and occasionally it can get him in position to attack the edge, though usually he still has to rely on his other tools to get him around the corner. He isn’t the bendiest athlete, but he can cut the corner short by sweeping away the opposing tackle’s arms and then using his power to drive through.

Power is the strongest part of Verse’s game, and he has a bull rush that complements the speed he brings to the table. Very few tackles have the anchor to just sit back and absorb him, which forces them to play more aggressively and opens things up on the outside. Verse doesn’t really have any counter-moves, and his lateral agility is underwhelming, but the combination of power and speed is enough to make it difficult for any lineman to shut him down.

Verse has a couple of pretty good traits, but ultimately nothing I would consider elite, and I think he’s a fairly low-ceiling player. He has no experience dropping into coverage and can get pushed around in run defense, which limits his versatility and usefulness. I think he’s a safe enough bet as an above average starter to justify a selection in the middle of the first round, but I’m not sure he has all the tools necessary to be a consistent ten sack a season producer in the NFL.

 

Byron Murphy, DT, Texas

Murphy is a versatile defensive tackle, with the strength to hold up as a two-gapping presence in the running game and the burst to threaten quarterbacks in the backfield. Neither of these traits is at an elite level, and he falls short of a more explosive prospect like Newton, but his capability to be above average in both makes him very versatile from a scheme perspective, the sort of player you can count on no matter what you want to do on defense and someone worth taking in the middle of the first round.

As a pass rusher Murphy isn’t super technically refined, but he has enough skills to go along with his physical tools to win on the inside. He’s quick enough off the ball to get the opposing blocker in an awkward position, then strong enough after that to power through into the backfield. He doesn’t fire off quickly enough to get deep, immediate penetration, but he can drag a blocker behind him as he gets into the quarterback’s face and pushes him out of the pocket.

That is where things can get a little dicey though, because Murphy isn’t great as a finisher. He doesn’t have a lot of lateral range, and he doesn’t bend very well, meaning quarterbacks are typically able to sidestep his rush and let their blocker wash him out of the play. These struggles show up in the running game some as well, where Murphy can get into good position but then struggle to shed a blocker to make a play on the ball. These are probably physical limitations that can’t be improved too much in the NFL, and will keep him from making the sort of dynamic plays that separate the top defensive tackles from the simply very good ones.

 

Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

Turner is this year’s gamble on athletic upside. He may have had the best Combine performance of anyone this year, running a 4.46 forty and posting similarly incredible numbers in both his leaps. He is an explosive, rangy athlete, and when he’s let loose to just run he can make some impressive plays on defense. He’s very dangerous as a backside run defender, able to chase plays down from behind and swallow them before they can reach the line of scrimmage. He also has experience dropping into coverage and looks reasonably comfortable doing so, though he was never challenged in the three games I watched.

As a pass rusher there is still a lot of work to do, and a pretty good chance he never figures it out. The majority of his rushes end with him slamming into the opposing tackle’s chest, and it’s a rare occasion when he can even make the quarterback notice him. He doesn’t really use his hands, and never comes in with a pass rush plan other than using his physical abilities to win. Simply put, he is not an immediate impact player in the NFL.

The pieces you would want are there though, just not put together. He will explode up the field and gain the edge, then not be able to bend to get to the quarterback. He will drive a blocker into the backfield, then not be able to separate to bring the passer down. He shows tremendous lateral quickness, but rarely applies it as a pass rusher. Over the three games I watched there were maybe two plays where he put all his tools together, and they were breathtaking. Not often enough for me to describe them as anything more than random flukes, but often enough for me to believe there is something there to build on. Turner probably never will figure it all out and become an elite pass rusher. But the upside of him doing so is enough that I’d still take that gamble sometime in the late first round.

 

 

Defensive Backs

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Mitchell is probably the most challenging evaluation of any player I looked at this year. He has risen a lot during the pre-draft process largely on the strength of what he’s done off the field. He was reportedly among the most impressive players at the Senior Bowl practices, and then he wowed at the Combine, running a 4.33 forty to go along with above average height and weight. On paper he has the look of an elite cornerback, and that upside is definitely hard to ignore.

And it’s not that Mitchell’s tape is bad. It just doesn’t show very much. He played against largely weak competition, and the scheme didn’t really ask him to challenge himself. He mostly floated around ten yards off the line of scrimmage and waited to react to what he saw in front of him. At times this meant he could bait opposing quarterbacks into throws he could come down and knock away, but at others it meant giving up easy completions.

Projecting Mitchell into the NFL is essentially betting on a bunch of individual traits coming together in a way we simply haven’t seen yet. He is clearly fast, both with long speed and with quick downhill closing burst. He has good ball skills both on plays in front of him and over the top. On the rare occasion he was asked to change direction to match a receiver, he looked pretty good doing it. All these pieces together would make him an elite cornerback. But without seeing it consistently demonstrated, it’s hard to justify selecting him before the middle of the first round.

 

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Arnold is a good player who probably won’t ever be a great player. His size and athleticism are merely average for the cornerback position, and these limitations can make him vulnerable to the bigger and faster wide receivers he will face in the NFL. He does enough stuff well that he’ll still be reliable as a starter, but I’d be reluctant to spend a draft pick in the top half of the first round on someone with his limitations.

As long as he’s playing downhill with the receiver ahead of him Arnold can be very good, able to change direction on a dime and make excellent plays on the ball going around the receiver rather than through him. He does have a tendency to grab receivers once they’re past him, which drew frequent flags in college and will only be more heavily punished in the NFL.

Arnold is quicker than he is fast, and he is a fluid athlete matching receivers on their breaks. In college his reactivity allowed him to walk up to the line and sit in a receiver’s hip pocket from the moment the ball is snapped, erasing most windows before they could even come open. This will be harder in the NFL. Most NFL receivers can punish him over the top if he does this, and he doesn’t have the recovery ability to keep up after even one mistake. He’ll likely need to play more passive as a result, opening up opportunities underneath.

If you give him safety help over the top, he can be a quality cornerback on the outside. I think he might be better suited to a role in the slot though, a position he played infrequently in college and would need some time to adjust to. His quickness and balance would be more useful against the sort of routes he’s likely to face on the inside, and his vulnerability over the top less likely to be punished. And he is very good in run support, closing ground quickly and usually making strong tackles in space.

 

Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa

DeJean is built more like a safety than a cornerback, with a thick frame and slightly short arms, which I think is part of the reason why some people think he should change positions. As an athlete he has what it takes to play on the outside, even if he might be a little limited. He tested well with a 4.43 forty, and while he occasionally can be beaten over the top, it isn’t a severe enough problem to force him to change positions in the NFL.

The bigger concern would probably be his agility. He can be a bit stiff turning his hips or moving laterally, though there are also plays where he does this very well, so it may be a matter of just cleaning up some technique to become more consistent in the NFL. Physicality could help with this, and he showed moments of good press coverage, not utilized much at the college level. I think with time he can round into an above average cornerback on the outside, worthy of a top twenty pick.

I’m more mixed on the prospect of a position change. He has the physicality to play closer to the ball as a slot cornerback, and in a zone scheme he could be useful covering ground underneath, but I think his lack of quickness could cause more problems against slot receivers with the ability to break in either direction. And he isn’t as aggressive or reliable a tackler as I would want for someone on the inside. I think he can grow into this position as well, but I think the best bet is to keep him as an outside cornerback and hope he can patch over the weaknesses in his game out there.