Only one day remains until the draft, so it’s time for my attempt to predict what is actually going to happen. There are always wild rumors flying around at this time of year, and I’m probably a little too plugged-in for my own good. I did my best to sort through all this nonsense however, to try to lay out what I think is the likeliest scenario for tomorrow night.
1) Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
This has been down to Bryce Young or CJ Stroud for a while, and most recent signs point to Young. I still think there’s a better chance than most prognosticators are giving that they’ll end up taking Stroud, but in the end I think the scale is still slightly tipped towards Young. This isn’t the pairing I think makes most sense on paper, but Young has the skills to be an exciting playmaker, if he can overcome his other limitations.
2) Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
This is where the draft gets interesting. Because there is a clear top-two among the quarterbacks, and the Texans have a desperate need at that position, but every recent report has them pointed away from Stroud, perhaps even to a non-quarterback. I’m not sure I buy that, but I’m also not sure what they would gain from putting false information out there. If the Texans really are out on Stroud though, I think there’s a decent chance they’ll be able to sell this pick to someone who does consider him a top prospect.
3) Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
This spot is hot trade territory, especially if one of the top two quarterbacks fall. But if the Cardinals end up staying here, I think Anderson is the pick. I don’t love his fit in their defense, but it will be intriguing to see how they manage a group of athletic and versatile young linebackers to try to put something together on a defense that has been neglected for several years. There have also been a couple other names here rumored lately, the main ones being the higher-upside Tyree Wilson or else Paris Johnson to help their offense.
4) Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Colts have made no secret that they plan to use this pick on a quarterback, but at this point it remains very unclear which quarterback they prefer. There’s been so much smoke around the position over the past couple weeks, and at this point it feels like an exercise in futility to try to predict where they’re going to go. But it’s easy to imagine a team falling in love with Levis, with his impressive physical tools and experience in an NFL-style offense.
5) Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Carter is a difficult one to predict because he fits with basically every team between 5 and 10, but any one of them could decide he’s not worth the risk with his off-field concerns. I don’t think he’ll have much of a slide though, as Seattle is a team that has shown a willingness to take on risks in the past.
6) Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Detroit rebuilt their cornerback room in free agency, but they may not be done yet. Witherspoon has tremendous tape in coverage, and he brings an attitude and physicality to the field that it’s easy to see Dan Campbell falling in love with. I worry that lack of elite athleticism may limit him to being just a pretty good outside cornerback, but that’s still a valuable player, and if the Lions want to they can probably turn him into a very dangerous weapon in the slot.
7) Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Raiders could use a quarterback, but most indicators are pointing to them going cornerback at this spot. Gonzalez is a superb athlete who showed moments of elite coverage on the field, and in the long-run he has the potential to be one of the best players in this class. The Raiders have been a disaster in coverage for a decade now, so it’s hard to blame them for prioritizing someone with genuine talent on the outside.
8) Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Atlanta would be a great destination for Wilson. With his size and strength the current NFL player he most resembles is Calais Campbell, who just so happens to be in Atlanta now. They would form an excellent rotation—the rookie still learning the position and the veteran needing a breather so he can continue to go all-out—and Campbell can teach Wilson some tricks for when he takes over full-time.
9) Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
The Bears hold their breath and manage to come out with the best linemen in the class. Johnson’s stock has been rising lately, and there are reports he could go as high as three, or that some team could try to trade up for him. If he isn’t available, I still think the Bears address the offensive line here, either with the versatile Peter Skoronski or the athletic but raw Broderick Jones.
10) Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Van Ness is going to go a lot higher than he deserves, and Philadelphia feels like a team that could fall in love with him. He has elite athleticism like other pass-rushers they’ve targeted, and at times he uses that speed and strength to make stunning plays shedding blockers to get into the backfield. Most of the time though he just charges straight ahead into an offensive lineman’s chest, and it will take a lot of work to turn him into a player worthy of this selection.
11) Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski, OT/OG, Northwestern
Tennessee would make a lot of sense as a destination if Will Levis falls. He’s basically a younger version of Ryan Tannehill, and they seem mostly done with Malik Willis after an awful rookie year. But this team has much bigger problems, specifically an offensive line that has fallen to pieces over the past couple years. Skoronski may have some vulnerabilities as a pass protector, but he blows people off the ball in the running game, and it’s fun to imagine Derrick Henry charging downhill behind him.
12) Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
This has become a popular pick in a lot of mock drafts. Smith-Njigba has the best tape of any wide receiver in the draft, but he’ll likely slide outside of the top ten because of concerns about his health and his lack of experience playing outside the slot. Whoever Houston ends up taking at quarterback, they’re going to need to give him someone better to throw to than Nico Collins and Noah Brown.
13) Green Bay Packers – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Packers jumped up two spots as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade, which makes a lot of sense if they are targeting an offensive lineman. Jones has plenty of rough patches and little experience as a starter, but the Packers appear to be entering a year or two of rebuilding, so they can let him work through his issues before eventually replacing David Bakhtiari as the cornerstone of their offensive line.
14) New England Patriots – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Patriots should probably address their offense to give some help to Mac Jones, but there aren’t really great values at either wide receiver or offensive line here. So they are the team to go for Banks, a long and athletic cornerback who would slide in perfectly in a secondary that has seen a lot of talent walk out the door the past few years.
15) New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Murphy ends up sliding down the board some on draft night with concerns that his tape doesn’t match the player he appears to be on paper. He is big and explosive but doesn’t have much in the way of pass-rushing technique. But the Jets could use someone like that on defense, someone to show up on passing situations and try to win with pure speed while their cornerbacks play physical and aggressive on the back end.
16) Washington Commanders – Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Porter is a big, aggressive, physical cornerback, something Washington desperately needs on their defense. They’ve put a ton of resources into building their front seven, but they still haven’t been able to put forth a consistent performance on that side of the ball, largely because they can’t trust their coverage on the back end. With their pass rush, they should have the freedom to walk Porter up to the line and let him fight receivers where he’s at his best, without too many concerns about his middling speed leaving him vulnerable to deep passes over his head.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Pittsburgh is one of the most consistently readable teams prior to the draft, and they’ve been very clear that they are targeting an offensive lineman in the first round. In this scenario one of the top four is still available to them, but if an early run starts on draft night, they could move aggressively to make sure they lock down a selection. They may have to do some juggling on the line if they select Wright, who played his best football after switching to the right side at Tennessee. But he’s a good athlete with solid technique who can start right away.
18) Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Robinson is going to go in the first round, and it’s just a question of which team is willing to throw wisdom to the side and gamble that this running back is different. Detroit seems like a good fit, with a front office and coach that bring an old-school mentality and a roster that has young players at most other positions that could convince them they don’t have too many other holes to fill.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
I have a feeling one of these quarterbacks is going to slide farther than we expect. Maybe not all the way to 19 (there are several teams in this range I could see jumping up by 5 to 10 spots if someone starts to fall), but I don’t think all four will go in the top ten. Richardson is a bit of a gamble, and it’s easy to imagine general managers and coaches being scared to tie their future to him. It’s also easy to imagine someone falling in love and taking him as high as second overall, so once again the quarterback position is kind of a nightmare to predict.
20) Seattle Seahawks – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Mayer is an interesting prospect with a wide range out of outcomes. He comes out of college as one of the most consistent and productive tight end prospects we've seen, but he doesn't have the athleticism of other tight ends who could jump him like Dalton Kincaid or Darnell Washington. Seattle is another team that could take a run at a quarterback if he slides, but with the best options off the board they decide to give another weapon to Geno Smith instead.
21) Los Angeles Chargers – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Chargers desperately need speed at wide receiver, and Flowers is the best speed option in the draft. His biggest drawback is that he’s tiny, but with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen the Chargers have plenty of size on the outside. Flowers can work in the slot or on the edge, with route-running to create separation underneath and speed to force defenses to finally respect Justin Herbert’s cannon of an arm.
22) Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Baltimore’s inability to add quality receiving targets has been a big part of the frustrations that have developed with Lamar Jackson, so this could mollify him a little. They have a new offensive coordinator they are hoping will open the offense up some to take advantage of Jackson’s skill as a passer, hopefully a more sustainable path for the rest of his career than the run-first approach he’s had to this point. Addison will certainly be a useful piece to this puzzle, a receiver who may not have superstar upside but consistently is able to generate separation with his skill as a route-runner.
23) Minnesota Vikings – Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
I can’t buy into the Hendon Hooker hype. I just can’t. He may very well go in the first round, but Minnesota isn’t going to be the place. They just spent the entire offseason targeting free agents who are 25 or younger, so there’s no way they are going to go after the oldest first-round quarterback since Brandon Weeden. They have too many needs on the defensive side of the ball, where I’ll give them a young, athletic pass-rushing force on the interior.
(I decided to go for the vocal denial over the reverse-jinx. I hope it works.)
24) Jacksonville Jaguars – O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
Jacksonville continues to build out their offense. What they really need is a genuine top receiver, but there isn’t someone like that to be found at this point in the draft, so they’ll settle for their deep corps of number twos. Torrence will offer some stability directly in front of Trevor Lawrence, as a very strong, very smart pass protector who will form a strong pocket in front of their young quarterback.
25) New York Giants – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Giants invested a ton of money in Daniel Jones this offseason, so now would be a good time to get him some weapons. Johnston is a very strange prospect—a giant wide receiver in a class of tiny options, who excels at the things you normally expect a small receiver to excel at while playing far smaller than his size at the catch point. He’ll take some time to develop, but I think his talent is too much to let slide out of the first round.
26) Dallas Cowboys – Brian Branch, CB/S, Alabama
Dallas has a very good pass rush, but their coverage has been inconsistent for the past two years. Trevon Diggs is up and down on the outside, but they’ll live with his mistakes if he can continue to produce turnovers. Adding someone like Branch in the slot will help, taking away easy completions and forcing quarterbacks to be more aggressive attacking Diggs on the edge.
27) Buffalo Bills – Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
One of the first things the Bills did after drafting Josh Allen was to build a solid offensive line in front of him. That line has faded over the past couple years, and at this point it’s on the verge of becoming a genuine liability. Jones is a phenomenally gifted player with size that makes him a challenge for any pass-rusher that comes his way, and the skills to be truly physically dominant with a couple years of development.
28) Cincinnati Bengals – Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Forbes is pushed down the board because he’s as skinny as it is possible to be (only 166 pounds while standing 6-1, he looks like he might snap in half on every play). But he put together excellent tape in coverage, to go along with interception numbers that the other cornerbacks in this class can’t touch. Cincinnati will happily take a productive threat on the outside, and see in the long-run whether his ludicrous frame poses any issues.
29) New Orleans Saints – Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State
This is as much a wish as it is a prediction. I like McDonald as a player, but more importantly, I like him as a first-round Cyclone. Iowa State hasn’t had a first-round pick since 1973. The only other “Power 5” school who hasn’t had a first-round pick in the past 15 drafts is Indiana, and even they only go back to 1994. The Saints could use a young pass-rusher as well, and McDonald has the athletic ability to develop into a really good one.
30) Philadelphia Eagles – Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Ringo’s stock has been sliding since the season ended and people started really diving into his tape. Some scouts think he would be better moved to safety, but I think he’ll at least get a chance early on at cornerback. He has good size and ran a 4.36 in the forty, and in college he seemed to turn it on to produce big plays at crucial moments. His tape as a whole is pretty disappointing, but Philadelphia has the luxury to wait a year or two to let him develop while their veteran cornerbacks run out their careers.
31) Kansas City Chiefs – Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Kansas City won the Super Bowl on the back of an explosive offense, so it feels weird to say they struggled at receiver, but it was a position of consistent problem. The combination of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid is enough to make any offense go, but I think they’d still like another downfield threat. Hyatt isn’t Tyreek Hill fast, but he was a dangerous deep threat in college, with the athletic ability to develop more parts of his game with good coaching at the next level.
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