2023 Mock Draft: I'm In Charge

 

Here is the first of my two annual mock drafts. This is what would happen if I was making the selection for every team which for some reason, even after ten years doing this, I still am not.

1) Carolina Panthers – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

You really can’t go wrong with either of the top two quarterbacks. Stroud is the safer pick, and I think he still has a fair amount of upside, with physical tools he can mature into using in a more dynamic way. Carolina will be a bit of a rough situation for him, without the elite receiving talent he got used to at Ohio State, but his mobility within the pocket will cover up the blemishes in their still young offensive line.

 

2) Houston Texans – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Young is the more dynamic of the top two quarterbacks and probably has a higher ceiling, though I worry about his small stature and middling arm strength. But his ability to make plays outside the pocket is rare, and gives Houston a boost they desperately need on an offense devoid of talent.

 

3) Arizona Cardinals – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

This is the slot given over to the best non-quarterback in the draft. There’s a decent chance that someone will jump up to make this a quarterback as well, but since I’m not projecting any trades, I’ll give the Cardinals the clear best player on the board. Arizona’s defense needs help at basically every position, and Carter will give them a dominant force to build around at the very heart. There are obviously some off-field concerns with him, but since I don’t have the ability to answer those questions to my liking, I’m just going to ignore them.

 

4) Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Richardson has a reputation as a raw prospect, and that is a fair description, but with him I think it’s more a lack of experience than genuine holes in his game. Indianapolis would be a good place for him to hit the ground running, with a coaching staff who worked with a similarly physically gifted talent in Jalen Hurts and enough of a supporting cast to keep him from feeling like he has to carry this offense on his own.

 

5) Seattle Seahawks – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Wide receiver isn’t a huge position of need for Seattle, but it’s never a bad thing to add more talent to the offense. Tyler Lockett is 30 years old, and Smith-Njigba can fill a very similar role as someone who bounces between the outside and the slot, attacking every part of the field to complement DK Metcalf’s vertical threat.

 

6) Detroit Lions – Joey Porter, CB, Penn State

The Lions overhauled their secondary in the offseason, including sending away former third overall pick Jeff Okudah. They brought in some good players in Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Mosely, and CJ Gardner-Johnson, but they could still really use a young and physically dominant player like Porter. The veteran presences around him will give him the ability to grow into the role, with both Sutton and Gardner-Johnson having experience in the slot so they can bump down against spread attacks and let Porter focus on playing on the perimeter where he’s at his best.

 

7) Las Vegas Raiders – Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State

The Raiders aren’t in position to be picky about position, so they grab the best overall player available. Johnson has some work to do, but he has all the tools to become an elite pass protector within a couple of years. Kolton Miller is a fine enough left tackle right now, so Johnson could end up on the right side to start, but in the long-run I think he’s a shutdown left tackle who will give them something reliable to build on in the post Derek Carr era.

 

8) Atlanta Falcons – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

Atlanta also just needs talent at whatever position they can get it, and Anderson has the versatility to fill several roles on their defense. I worry that in a simpler scheme he could be a little outmatched as a full-time edge pass rusher, but without much other defensive talent the Falcons can make him the focal point of their scheme, giving him the flexibility to bounce around and attack from various directions that made him so dangerous in college.

 

9) Chicago Bears – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

There are a couple edge pass rushing prospects that could make sense here, but I think Jones is still the best bet. Rookie Braxton Jones showed some promise at left tackle last year, so they could either keep him there and have the new Jones take the right side, or switch and put the old Jones on the right. (I almost don’t want to do this because the names are so confusing.) With Teven Jenkins thriving after his move to guard, this give the Bears the pieces of a very good offensive line, which will be essential in front of a quarterback who enjoys holding the ball as long as possible.

 

10) Philadelphia Eagles – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

I considered a few different options with this pick. The Eagles could certainly stand to get younger on their lines, but on both sides the biggest need is on the interior, and I think those are positions better addressed in the middle rounds. Youth at cornerback won’t hurt either, where they have James Bradberry and Darius Slay for at least another year but not much clarity beyond that. Witherspoon has the ferocity to fill in as a slot cornerback right away before eventually stepping into a role as their top option on the outside.

 

11) Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski, OT/OG, Northwestern

Tennessee’s offensive line has gone from a strength to an utter disaster over the past few seasons. They need talent desperately, and Skoronski is the best option available here. I think he should be given a chance to start at tackle, but if he struggles there, the Titans could certainly use help at guard as well. He’s a powerful downhill force in the running game, perfect blocking in front of Derrick Henry.

 

12) Houston Texans – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

Houston is another team with the misfortune/luxury of needing players at every position. As much as I would like to give their young quarterback a weapon to work with, there isn’t a player on that side worth taking here. So they address their defense instead, adding an athletic and explosive pass rushing prospect who needs some work but could develop in a couple years to be a truly lethal edge threat.

 

13) Green Bay Packers – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

Whatever is next for the Packers offense, they could use some youth on the offensive line, particularly at tackle. David Bakhtiari will probably never again be the player he once was, and their line struggled with him coming in and out of the lineup a year ago. Wright is experienced at right tackle if they want to try to plug him in there, or else they can make him the heir to Bakhtiari on the left side.

 

14) New England Patriots – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

This is actually a pretty good destination for Wilson. New England has a history of getting the most out of unique pass rushers, and Wilson is certainly unique, with tremendous size and strength to go along with surprising flexibility. The main hole in his game is explosiveness, but I think he can find that with better technique. And even if he doesn’t, the Patriots will find ways to maximize his skillset.

 

15) New York Jets – Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

This is a bit of a reach with the top four offensive linemen off the board, but this is the part of the draft where reaches are going to start happening, and this fills the biggest need for the Jets. Harrison can play either guard or tackle immediately, so they can figure out how best to use him to keep Aaron Rodgers clean and open holes for Breece Hall in the running game.

 

16) Washington Commanders – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

I don’t love Gonzalez as much as most people seem to, but I can’t deny his incredible athletic ability, and moments where he comes close to putting it all together on tape. With the more NFL-ready cornerbacks off the board, Washington will have to settle for the upside on the back end of their defense. They’ve done a lot of work building out their pass rush, but they still struggle to find consistency on the defensive side. If they can get someone to lock down receivers in coverage, it will go a long way towards helping their electric pass rush get home.

 

17) Pittsburgh Steelers – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Banks is another cornerback who has some work to do before he reaches starting caliber in the NFL, but he’d be a good fit in Pittsburgh learning under Patrick Peterson. Like Peterson, Banks is both long and electrically fast, and he just needs to learn how to harness those skills in coverage. The front end of Pittsburgh’s defense remains elite, but they have gaping holes at cornerback that they need to address in the draft.

 

18) Detroit Lions – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Again it’s actually kind of tricky to find a position to target for the Lions, since they have a lot of young talent at the most important positions already. But you can always use more wide receivers, and Johnston is decent value compared to the other players on the board. Pairing a big receiver with Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St Brown to give them a versatile receiving game, though in the long-run they’ll need Johnston to learn to play as big as he is.

 

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State

Tampa Bay’s defensive front is aging, and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has shown only flashes since being their first-round pick two years ago. Even if he does pan out, the Buccaneers will benefit from another young pass rusher. McDonald will take a little time to transition to the NFL, playing a different role than he did in college and adjusting to the strength of NFL defenders against his small frame. But his tape is as good as any pass rusher in this class, and in the long-run I’d bet on him figuring things out.

 

20) Seattle Seahawks – O'Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida

This is where it gets tricky. I don’t think Torrence is a first-round prospect, but positional value plays a large part in that. He’s a very good guard who should be able to start right away and will provide a level of stability in both the run and the passing game. The Ravens probably need more help on the defensive side of the ball, but I don’t see a player on that side worth taking in this spot. So instead they add more young talent to a group that featured a couple of strong rookies a year ago.

 

21) Los Angeles Chargers – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

This is actually a pretty perfect fit. The Chargers receiving corps is filled with big receivers who can get open underneath and make contested catches but don’t scare defenses much down the field. Flowers doesn’t have elite speed, but he has enough to at least keep up with Justin Herbert’s cannon of an arm, and he will bring some youth and explosiveness to an offense that desperately needs it.

 

22) Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Addison probably doesn't have superstar potential, but he's very good at the things he does. He's the best route-runner in the class, and he'll be able to get open at an NFL level right away. He's a good complement for Rashod Bateman if he can get healthy, and together they can help open up a Ravens offensive attack that has gotten progressively less interesting over the past couple years.

 

23) Minnesota Vikings – Brian Branch, CB/S, Alabama

Branch is another really good player who probably doesn’t belong in the first round simply because of positional value. He isn’t athletic enough to play cornerback full-time on the outside, and not big enough to be a safety who regularly comes down into the box. But he’s a very smart player who has good coverage instincts in the slot, the sort of player who could round out a very good defensive unit. Unfortunately, Minnesota doesn’t have a very good defensive unit right now, but in a few years Branch could be a valuable fifth or sixth best player on that side of the ball.

 

24) Jacksonville Jaguars – Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

Smith is a step below the other cornerbacks I studied, but he’s a solid player nonetheless. He’s physical at the line and difficult to beat over the top, and his biggest issues will come facing quicker receivers who challenge him on shorter routes. But he’s a good second cornerback option, a position the Jaguars desperately need across from emerging star Tyson Campbell.

 

25) New York Giants – Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

The Giants have been scrambling to find something at the wide receiver position for years now, and every big move they’ve made so far has ended in disappointment. I’m worried that Hyatt could follow the same course, but at this point in the draft it’s worth taking a gamble on his upside. He has decent size and impressive speed, and while he’s still learning how to run routes, he at least has the beginning of tools that could develop into more of a complete receiver down the road, while he contributes mostly as a deep threat at the start of his career.

 

26) Dallas Cowboys – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

This is a little obvious, and makes me a bit queasy after the tumultuous experience Dallas had with Ezekiel Elliott, the only running back prospect I’ve studied who matched Robinson’s potential. But there’s a difference between spending a top-five pick on a running back and grabbing one at the end of the first round. This isn’t great value, but there isn’t a lot of great value left to find at this point. And he fills an immediate need on Dallas’s roster, while bringing a level of explosiveness and excitement back to their offense.

 

27) Buffalo Bills – Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State

Jones isn’t the most fleet-of-foot lineman, but he makes up for it by being absolutely massive. He’s solid in pass protection simply because it takes so long for even the fastest pass rushers to run around him. His size also means he can be occasionally dominant as a run-blocker, which will be a major addition for a Bills offense that has generally avoided the running game the past few years.

 

28) Cincinnati Bengals – Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh

Kancey is not Aaron Donald. It’s easy to understand the comparisons, an undersized but athletic defensive tackle from Pittsburgh, but holding him to that standard is unfair. He doesn’t have the first-step burst of Donald or the power to throw blockers aside, but he does possess similar quickness in space and active hands that make him lethal as a pass rusher. It’s a bigger question whether he can hold up enough against the run to be an every-down player in the NFL, but Cincinnati is in position to take a gamble, with a well-rounded roster that won’t be devastated if Kancey turns out to be just a situational specialist.

 

29) New Orleans Saints – Tanner McKee, QB, Stanford

This is a total flyer on someone who still has to do a lot of work to become NFL ready. But McKee’s skill as a passer is genuinely rare, and if he is given the leash to develop the other parts of his game—processing, pocket management, mechanics—he can be a much better player in the NFL than he was in college. He’s a riskier selection than Will Levis, but I think his ceiling is much higher.

 

30) Philadelphia Eagles – Brian Bresee, DT, Clemson

Bresee doesn’t bring much as a pass rusher, and he’s not physically overwhelming enough to blow people deep into the backfield to disrupt plays. But he absorbs contact well and is able to shed when plays come his way, making him a valuable run defender. Philadelphia’s defense struggled last year until they signed a couple of veteran defensive tackles in the middle of the season to shore up their front against the run. Bresee gives them a younger piece that can do the same thing, and he shows moments of quickness that suggest he might be able to develop some pass rush ability with a couple years to hone his technique. Even if he doesn’t, the pair of him and Jordan Davis will end any thoughts teams have of trying to attack the Eagles on the ground.

 

31) Kansas City Chiefs – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

Smith needs to do a lot of work to become a reliable pass-rusher, but his athletic ability is off the charts, and for a team like Kansas City it’s worth the gamble. With Chris Jones on the inside and an offense that will force opposing teams into a lot of passing situations, they should be able to create a lot of situations for Smith to work with pure speed off the edge.