The first round of the NFL draft is in the books, so here are my thoughts on every selection that was made tonight.
1) Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
No surprises here. Young is the first player off the board, and I think he’ll become a good quarterback down the road, just one with some limitations. I think he’ll have a rocky start as well, but Carolina is in a good position, in a weak division and a conference with very few other young quarterbacks. They still have a lot of work to do with this roster (particularly the offense) and not a lot of capital to work with, but Young is a good start.
2) Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
There has been a lot of smoke over the past couple weeks that the Texans might go in a different direction, but in the end they made the smart decision and took the best player on the board. Stroud is a very similar level prospect to Young, with more pure physical talent and just less creativity in his game. Stroud will need to work to adjust to an NFL offensive system, but once he gets up to speed, he has the arm, accuracy, and intelligence to tear defenses apart.
3) Houston Texans – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
I don’t love what just happened here. Houston’s top priority should have been to build up talent around Stroud on offense, and instead they threw a bunch of draft capital at a defender. Anderson is very good and very versatile, but not the sort of freakish athlete that typically dominates as a pass rusher. Anderson at three isn’t a tremendous reach, but Houston trading up to get him is questionable.
4) Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Colts have been very clear that they want to get a quarterback this year, and they had their pick of two of the top four here. They went with Richardson, the high-upside freak athlete who is more polished than more people think. He knows how to operate an NFL offense, and he just needs experience to speed up his process. There are some reasons to be concerned about his accuracy, but I think he should be able to get that up to at least average, which will be enough when combined with his arm strength and athleticism.
5) Seattle Seahawks – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
This is the first huge surprise of the draft. I don’t think I saw any mock drafts with Witherspoon going this high, but Pete Carroll does love his defensive backs, especially defensive backs that can hit people like Witherspoon can. I think he’ll be a good pro, but he isn’t particularly big or athletic, and there were better options available at this spot.
6) Arizona Cardinals – Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
Johnson was rumored for Arizona a lot over the past week as a possibility for the third overall pick, apparently under pressure from Kyler Murray. Getting him three slots lower is better, though it’s still a bit of a reach. He’s a very good athlete who still has some holes in his technique, and the Cardinals certainly need help on the defensive side too. But it’s hard to be too mad about anything they’ve done after adding all that draft value from Houston.
7) Las Vegas Raiders – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Wilson’s projection has been all over the place the past couple weeks, with some speculating the high-upside edge rusher could go as high as number two, or slide out of the first round because of medical concerns. This feels like a good spot for him though. He’s physically spectacular, with incredible size and strength and the sort of flexibility you just don’t see from guys his size. The big concern is that he’s not that explosive, but he’s a good complement with the speedy Maxx Crosby.
8) Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
I saw people speculating about this for a while, but it still comes as a huge surprise. Robinson is a great player, one of the best running backs I’ve studied. But he’s also a running back, going to a team that just got a good rookie season from a fifth round running back. I get that Arthur Smith wants a run-first offense, but this team has so many other pressing needs to throw a top ten pick at a luxury like this.
9) Philadelphia Eagles – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
I guess I get why some teams would be scared away from Carter, but it feels like the entire NFL just made a mistake letting a team that was just in the Super Bowl get the best player in the draft at a major position of need. Carter is a game-wrecking force who will elevate a defensive line that is talented but aging, and allow them to make the best use of last year’s first-round selection Jordan Davis.
10) Chicago Bears – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Wright wasn’t my favorite lineman on the board, but this isn’t an egregious reach. He tested as a very good athlete despite looking middling on the field, and he has the experience to slide without much trouble into the starting lineup right away. He’s inconsistent but has moments on tape where he shut down elite pass rushers, and the Bears don’t have to juggle their offensive line too much to put him in at right tackle.
11) Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski, OT/OG, Northwestern
This pick makes a lot of sense, which is why I had it in both of my mock drafts. When Tennessee was a playoff team a couple years ago it was on the strength of an overwhelming offensive line, but that line has fallen to pieces over the past couple years. Skoronski may end up being a guard in the long-term because of his short stature, but it’s worth giving him a shot at left tackle for an offensive line that desperately needs help at pretty much every position.
12) Detroit Lions – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
If Atlanta’s pick is bizarre, this one is utterly baffling. I saw a few people speculate Gibbs might sneak into the very end of the first round, but nothing that had him going anywhere near this high. He almost certainly would have been available when the Lions picked later, and I can’t imagine what they were thinking with this selection. He’s a fun player with good athletic ability and receiving skills, but the Lions already have a decent option there in D’Andre Swift.
13) Green Bay Packers – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Apparently Green Bay’s unwillingness to invest in receiving talent wasn’t some personal vendetta against Aaron Rodgers. With every wide receiver and tight end still on the board, they decided to grab the freakishly athletic but totally raw defensive end out of Iowa. Van Ness put up numbers at the Combine that are rare for a person of his size, and that matters at edge rusher more than at any other position. But in college he mostly just ran forward and slammed into the blocker in front of him, which isn’t a great strategy against NFL linemen.
14) Pittsburgh Steelers – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
It’s normally not a great idea to trade up in the first round for a non-quarterback, but with three of the top four linemen off the board the Steelers decided to grab the last of the elite players there. Jones is a freakishly gifted athlete who is still figuring out the position, and he’ll have to learn on the fly protecting Kenny Pickett’s blind side. In a couple years this will pretty much look like either a brilliant pick or a catastrophic mistake, depending on how the Steelers can develop this talent.
15) New York Jets – Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State
We did it! A first-round pick from Iowa State! The first since 1973, giving Indiana the longest drought among power-5 teams (since 1994). This is too high for McDonald, especially with better edge rushers on the board. But he’s athletic and has a history of production, and will just have to figure out how to play in the NFL with such a small frame.
16) Washington Commanders – Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
The cornerbacks have been sliding down the board all night, and it is a surprise that, with their pick of the position, the Commanders decided to go with Forbes. Forbes has great coverage skills and incredible interception production, and the big red flag about him is that he’s that he’s built like a twig. If he can hold up though, this isn’t the most insane reach of the night.
17) New England Patriots – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
This is a less surprising cornerback selection. I’m not as a big a fan of Gonzalez as most people, but I think his athletic upside is worth grabbing here. He goes to a good situation in New England where he’ll be trained to make the best use of these attributes while also being put in position to not expose his vulnerabilities.
18) Detroit Lions – Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
The Lions seem committed to destroying whatever goodwill they’ve built up with the NFL media over the past year. Campbell is another player who impressed me in what limited tape I’ve seen of him, but because of his position value no one expected him to go this high. An elite linebacker can be huge for a defense, but getting those coverage skills to translate from college to pro is very difficult and very hard to project.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
This is maybe a little too rich for someone with as much downside as Kancey, but it’s hard not to get excited by what he brings as a pass rusher. He is incredibly quick in tight spaces and has excellent hands, but it’s hard to know whether or not he can hold up in run defense. I worry that he may just be a situational player, but in those situations he will be absolutely lethal.
20) Seattle Seahawks – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Smith-Njigba should have gone higher than this, and he’s basically a perfect fit in Seattle. He can jump in immediately as a slot wide receiver and create easy separation underneath, while developing his game to become a complete receiver by the time Tyler Lockett is done. The only real weakness in his game is the lack of elite straightline speed, and the Seahawks have that covered with DK Metcalf. This may be the best pick in the draft so far.
21) Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The talk all offseason has been that the Chargers need to get some speed to go along with their towering receivers on the outside. So they went out and drafted the one big receiver available in the draft. Johnston plays smaller than he is though, and he’s actually at his best working over the middle of the field and making plays after the catch. He was the best receiver available after Smith-Njigba, though I do question the fit in what should be transitioning to a more vertical offense.
22) Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Another wide receiver. The Ravens managed to lock up Lamar Jackson earlier today, and now they make him even happier by giving him a receiver he can count on to get open. Flowers has the best pure speed of the top receivers in the draft, but it’s still just okay speed, not the sort of player who can fundamentally shift opposing defenses. He’s small as well and struggles with press coverage, but his ability to create separation with his subtle route-running will make him a quality number two option for a long time.
23) Minnesota Vikings – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Make that four straight receivers. Addison is a very similar player to Flowers, an elite route-runner who doesn’t have great size and didn’t test superbly. He’ll be a great addition alongside Justin Jefferson, who should help take most of the coverage focus away. Personally I would have addressed the defense here, with good options available at pass rusher and cornerback. But if the Vikings wanted to improve their offense, Addison was the best option available.
24) New York Giants – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
I doubt the Giants expected Banks to be available for them, so they are pleased to be able to add an elite athlete on the defensive back end. Banks has elite speed but I worry about his ability to change direction and his age. In the right scheme he can be a solid player, maybe even with superstar potential. But ask him to do much outside his comfort zone and you could run into problems.
25) Buffalo Bills – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
I haven’t watched much film of Kincaid, so I can’t comment on him too much except to say he’s a phenomenal athlete who is more of a receiver than a tight end. It’s an interesting choice for Buffalo, who already has a few pretty good weapons including tight end Dawson Knox. And tight end is a position that has historically been difficult to select in the first round, which makes me even warier of this selection.
26) Dallas Cowboys – Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
I haven’t really watched Smith, and I think it’s a bit of a stretch for a team to take a run-first defensive tackle in the first round unless he is an absolutely dominant player. But the Cowboys do need help on the defensive side, especially against the run. There were other players I liked available here, but it’s hard to fault them too much for this pick.
27) Jacksonville Jaguars – Anton Harrison, OT/OG, Oklahoma
This is a quality selection by the Jaguars. They need to do a better job protecting Trevor Lawrence, especially with the news that left tackle Cam Robinson is facing a suspension to start the year. Harrison could take over for him at that spot, bounce to right tackle, or slide into guard. He isn’t the elite athlete like the linemen who went higher in the draft, but he’s an experienced and skilled player who will turn into a solid if unspectacular starter.
28) Cincinnati Bengals – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
This is another of the best selections in the draft. Murphy never developed more than a pure speed rush in college, but his speed rush is impressive, and players with his combination of size and athleticism simply aren’t available this late in the draft. Pass rush isn’t the biggest need the Bengals had, but there weren’t any glaring holes they needed to fill, so grabbing the best player available is perfectly fine.
29) New Orleans Saints – Brian Bresee, DT, Clemson
Another run-stuffing defensive tackle, though with Bresee I think there’s some potential to develop into a more dynamic player down the road. He doesn’t have the biggest range, but he plays well with his hands and does a good job shedding off contact. And the Saints desperately need youth on their defense. I would have targeted a more valuable position like pass rush or cornerback, but Bresee is a good high-upside selection at this point.
30) Philadelphia Eagles – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
I’m not as big a fan of Smith as most people, but this isn’t too ridiculous of a value here. He is absolutely explosive with every step he takes, and he just needs to figure out how to make these steps actually worthwhile. He’s a bit on the small side, but with the massive and powerful players the Eagles have on the interior, they can afford being a little light on the outside.
31) Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
I don’t know much about Anudike-Uzomah. His athletic testing doesn’t jump off the board, and this is higher than I saw him going in most mock drafts. But with so many people expecting Kansas City to try to add an offensive weapon here, I kind of like them addressing the defensive side of the ball. They’ve scrounged together talent there the past few seasons and managed to come together at the right time, but they could certainly use some youth to help them get after opposing quarterbacks to keep all the weight from being on their offense’s shoulders.
