2021 NFL Preview: Part 2

 Here we are, just a day away from the kickoff to the NFL season. Yesterday I ran through the entire league and told you exactly what record each team is going to finish with. Today I’ll do the same for all the major awards, as well as letting you know who is going to win the Super Bowl.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

As we saw a year ago, even if a rookie at another position puts up a historically great season, a simply pretty good performance by a quarterback is going to win this award. If for some reason all the rookie quarterbacks fall flat, I suppose I could see one of the top receivers getting it. My bet would be on DeVonta Smith, since he has less competition with teammates than Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle. On the other hand, he has the most questionable quarterback situation, which could kill his production.

I’m less optimistic about Kyle Pitts. He’s a special player who will be a superstar eventually, but the tight end position is a difficult transition. He’ll have some big games and some spectacular plays, but he’ll also have weeks where he’s totally quiet. The real best bet for a non-quarterback is probably Najee Harris. Pittsburgh is going to feed him the ball a lot this year, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see him finish top five in the league in rushing to go along with solid production as a receiver.

But it’s going to go to a quarterback, and there are only five real candidates for the award. Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones have already earned starting roles, so they have an early leg up on the competition. I expect Justin Fields will see the field soon enough that it doesn’t matter too much though. The one real option killed by this is Trey Lance, who I’m guessing will be limited to a package of plays until the midway point of the season. He’ll be dynamic enough in these short flashes that he could explode down the stretch on a competitive team and claim the award despite lesser volume, but I’m skeptical he’ll be all the way ready even when he takes over as the starter.

I’m also not particularly bullish on Jones’s chances to win this. He has a chance to gain some spotlight if the Patriots defense can haul them into playoff contention, but he’ll be at the lead of a team that will likely lean heavily on the ground game. Fields is in a similar situation where he has a chance to claim the award if he can lead the Bears to the playoffs, but I think he’ll be a bit too up and down to pull that off.

So ultimately this comes down to the first two quarterbacks selected in the draft. I went with Lawrence here, both because he has better supporting talent and because he’s a better player. I could see Wilson putting up big numbers as the Jets ask him to pass a lot on a team that really doesn’t have much else. I could also see him leading the league in interceptions. Lawrence won’t be a superstar right away, and he’s not going to carry the Jaguars to the playoffs. But he’ll do enough to stand out above the other rookie quarterbacks this year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys

This award is always a lot harder to predict than the offensive side of things, and this was a year without any real standout defensive players in the draft. So let’s just walk through candidates position by position.

There isn’t really anyone to consider at safety, so let’s look at the cornerbacks. The first two off the board were Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain Jr, both with interesting cases. Horn is joining a defense with a lot of other young talent, and if the unit takes a leap forward it’s possible he could be seen as the piece that completed them. Surtain is by far the most immediately ready of the cornerbacks, but he’s headed to a team with quite a bit of depth at that position, and it’s unclear how much time he’ll actually see on the field.

Two other first round cornerbacks are similar cases. Both Greg Newsome in Cleveland and Eric Stokes in Green Bay are going to playoff teams with established number one cornerbacks, which means that they will have plenty of opportunities to make impact plays. If they can put up big interception totals, or make a handful of plays in a primetime game, they could jump into the race. Newsome is comfortably the better player, so if I had to pick a cornerback he’d be the way I’d lean.

On the defensive front, there really aren’t any interior players with realistic chances. The best edge rushers are Jaelan Phillips and Kwity Paye. Phillips could make some noise in Miami with an excellent secondary behind him and without much competition as a pass rusher, but for both of them I think they have more upside as long-term projects than as immediate impact players.

Which brings us to linebackers. Zaven Collins and Jamin Davis are both excellent athletes with tremendous upside, but the most likely immediate impact player is Parsons. He may be a bit rusty after sitting out the 2020 college season, but his athletic ability is truly special, and based on the preseason he will be in an excellent position to make a splash in Dallas.

The Cowboys look like they intend to use him as a jack of all trades player, someone who flies all over the field using his pure ability to make explosive plays. In particular it looks like they intend to use him a lot as a blitzer, where his burst and closing speed could overwhelm opposing linemen if they don’t see him coming. It isn’t out of the question he could put up six or seven sacks from a linebacker position to go along with an interception or two, and perhaps a defensive score. He can stuff the stat sheet, and playing for what should be a resurgent Cowboys team won’t hurt either.

Coach of the Year: Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins

This isn’t the official description of the award, but Coach of the Year often comes down to improvement. Three of the past four years it’s gone to a first-year coach who took his team to the playoffs, and based on my predictions that would make Brandon Staley with the Chargers a good bet. The other first-year coaches are primarily stuck on teams like the Jets, Texans, Lions, Eagles, and Jaguars that have no real chance of sniffing the playoffs. The outside possibility is Arthur Smith with the Falcons, but I don’t think they’re a playoff team either.

Sean McVay has won the award before, and if the offense elevates with the addition of Matthew Stafford, he could be in the running once again. Similarly across the division Kyle Shanahan could get it, particularly if he gets the most out of Trey Lance’s unique skills. I don’t think the Saints will make the playoffs, but if they do Sean Payton will be in the running for absorbing the loss of Drew Brees.

Ultimately though I think the award goes to Flores, as much for the work he’s done over the past two years as this year. When he signed on with the Dolphins, they were an utterly barren team. They had virtually no young talent, especially once they shipped off Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick. In two years Flores has built them into playoff contenders on the strength of an aggressive defense, and if he can get improved play out of Tua Tagovailoa and lead the Dolphins to the playoffs, I think he will comfortably win this award.

MVP/Comeback Player: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

I’m lumping these together both because I’m running behind schedule, and because I expect them to be won by the same player. Before his catastrophic knee injury a year ago, Prescott was putting up some utterly insane numbers. Through four games he was on pace for 48 total touchdowns and a record-obliterating 6760 passing yards. Even if the Cowboys are extra cautious with him after his injury sank their 2020 season, he’s going to be at the head of one of the most explosive offenses in the league for a team that is the favorite to win its division. He should be the overwhelming favorite to win the Comeback Player award. And if they ramp up his volume during the second-half playoff push, he could lead the league in most statistical categories and claim MVP as well.

There are certainly others who could win it. Aaron Rodgers is the defending champion, but I expect him to slide somewhere between his middling 2019 and superb 2020. I’m picking the Buccaneers to finish with the best record in the NFC, but that is as much due to Tom Brady’s supporting cast as anything he’ll do himself. Similarly on the AFC side, I don’t think Lamar Jackson will quite repeat his production from 2019, which some people will continue to use to bafflingly claim that defenses have “figured him out”. Meanwhile the Ravens will continue to just win games and be perfectly content with the production they’re getting out of him.

The wild card is of course Patrick Mahomes. He is capable of playing quarterback at a level no one else in the league can reach, and even during his bad stretches he is still incredibly good. He does feel like he should be the favorite for pretty much his entire career, but I’m going to hold off on picking him this year. There is too much uncertainty for me on the rest of the Chiefs offense—between the rebuilt offensive line and the questionable number two and three wide receivers. I don’t think it’s enough to stop the Chiefs from winning games, but it will be enough to suppress Mahomes’s stats below the level we’ve come to expect.

The league is awash with young quarterback talent right now, and there are multiple players who could conceivably make the leap this season. Obviously Josh Allen made the leap a year ago, and if he sustains that level of play or even improves on it he could end up in the mix again. Justin Herbert has proven he can produce at volume, and Baker Mayfield and Tua Tagovailoa could impress for playoff teams. But I think all of them will struggle to match the numbers that Prescott puts up, and the only thing that could really hold him back is if the Cowboys as a team struggle to turn his production into victories.

Super Bowl:

I see a clear top tier of four teams, two in each conference. In the NFC the Packers and the Buccaneers will battle once again after meeting in the Championship Game a season ago. In the AFC the Bills will slide back some, leaving the Ravens as the top challenger for Kansas City.

Green Bay came very close to beating Tampa Bay a year ago, and I think they can pull it off this year. The Buccaneers were almost perfectly healthy during their playoff run in 2020, and they’re bound to be a bit more banged up this time around. A big part of their playoff success was the sudden improvement of their ground game on the back of Leonard Fournette, a performance that he hasn’t shown the ability to replicate consistently. If Green Bay can keep the ground game bottled up better, they have the players they need up front to get pressure on Brady and force him into mistakes.

The AFC side is an interesting case. Kansas City and Baltimore face off in a week and a half, and right now I expect the Chiefs to win and claim the inside track to home-field advantage in a playoff rematch. But I think if they meet again, Baltimore will emerge victorious the second time around.

The biggest issue the Chiefs have right now is the same one that doomed them in the Super Bowl last year—uncertainty on the offensive line. In the Super Bowl injuries led to Mahomes being constantly harassed and unable to make plays down the field. Those same injuries led them to completely rebuild their offensive line this offseason. The players they brought in are all very talented, but they have absolutely no history working together, and there could be rough patches as they adjust to this offense. In theory they should get stronger as the season goes along, and the offense as a whole should be playing their best football at the end of the year.

That may very well be the case. But I can’t help feeling like the sheer volume of football Kansas City has played over the past three years will eventually catch up with them. It’s difficult to make the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons. It’s almost impossible to do it three straight years. In NFL history it has only happened three times—the Dolphins from 1971-73, the Bills from 1990-93 (four straight), and the Patriots from 2016-18. Playing deep into the postseason multiple years in a row takes a physical toll, and an extra regular season game this year won’t help.

Kansas City is not a team that can handle too many injuries. They’re already extremely thin at wide receiver and cornerback. The chemistry they’re trying to build on the offensive line could easily crumble if one or two of their key additions misses time. And of course, if Mahomes gets hurt they’re as good as dead.

Baltimore is a team that is well suited to attacking Kansas City. Their secondary can keep a man over the top of Tyreek Hill while trusting their deep cornerback rotation to lock down Kansas City’s mediocre second and third receivers on the opposite side. They don’t have any premier pass rushers, but they have enough versatility to attack the Chiefs from multiple angles.

On offense, they are set up to take advantage of a possibly battered Chiefs defense. Their offensive line will also develop more chemistry as the season goes along, and their passing game could take off if they can get rookie Rashod Bateman involved. They can win this game by disrupting the Chiefs offense, or they can win by simply outscoring them.

The reasons I think Baltimore is a good matchup for Kansas City are the same reasons I think they would beat this Packers team. They have the depth in the secondary to take away Green Bay’s secondary receiving options, leaving Davante Adams as the only receiver Rodgers can possibly go to. Green Bay’s offensive line is better than Kansas City’s, so the Packers may be able to move the ball by sheer stubbornness on long-developing plays. But I think there will be enough failed plays to kill the long drives they would need against this disciplined defense.

And on the other side of the ball, the same woes that have killed the Packers defending the run for the past several years will doom them against the Ravens. They simply don’t have the athletes at the second level to keep up with Jackson, and the Ravens should be able to take just about anything they want on the ground, even if Jaire Alexander can lock down Bateman and stifle their passing game.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens over Green Bay Packers