The kickoff of the NFL season is just two days away. I’ve spent the past month bringing you my usual season previews, breaking down each division team-by-team to give a best-case and worst-case scenario for everyone in the NFL. And now that I’ve officially waffled on each team, it’s time to actually stick my neck out.
Below I’ve predicted the final records for all 31 NFL teams, plus whatever we’re calling the Texans these days. That means division winners for all eight divisions, plus the three wild card teams for each conference. Of course, because I am a true entertainer, I’m going to let you wait another day for the real predictions, when I’ll tell you who will win all the major league awards and which team is going to claim the Super Bowl.
NFC
SOUTH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 14-3
New Orleans Saints: 8-9
Carolina Panthers: 6-11
Atlanta Falcons: 6-11
Tampa
Bay had to fight through three straight road games to reach the Super Bowl a
season ago, and they were able to pull it off because by the end of the year
they were playing the best football of any team in the league. In 2020 I think
they pick up where they left off and leave themselves a much easier road with
homefield advantage through the playoffs. There’s no real weakness to be found
on this roster, and if players like Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are fully
back to their old selves, they could be even better this year.
The other three teams in this division are all intriguing in their own way. Any one of them could make a run and snag a playoff spot, even if I don’t think they will manage it. For New Orleans and Carolina I like what they’ve built but don’t trust their quarterbacks. For Atlanta I don’t trust anyone but their quarterback.
WEST
Seattle Seahawks: 11-6Los Angeles Rams: 10-7
San Francisco 49ers: 10-7
Arizona Cardinals: 8-9
This will be an insanely competitive division between a bunch of teams I’m not particularly sold on. I picked Seattle to win partially out of habit and partially because I still believe Russell Wilson is head and shoulders above any other quarterback in the division. I’m not a believer in Matthew Stafford as anything more than a pretty good quarterback, and I don’t think the Rams are a Super Bowl contender like some people seem to. They’ll still make the playoffs, and they might be able to win a game or two once they’re there, but I don’t see them having what they need to knock off multiple of the league's best teams.
San Francisco may have some more upside due to the complete unknown that is Trey Lance. I think it will take him a while to take over as a full-time starter, even if he does get some run the first couple months as a situational player. When he does get on the field, it will be pretty rough, and I wouldn’t count out the 49ers completely falling to pieces and finishing with six or seven wins. If that’s the case, I think Arizona could snag an extra win or two and make the postseason as well. But I trust Kyle Shanahan more than Kliff Kingsbury, so I’ll stick with my prediction here.
EAST
Dallas Cowboys: 12-5Washington Football Team: 9-8
New York Giants: 6-11
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-12
All of these teams have some strong pieces on their rosters and also some pretty glaring holes. So in the end it will largely come down to quarterbacks. Dallas has a star, so they’ll win the division. Washington has a functional starter, so they’ll make the playoffs, even if I don’t feel great about that. New York and Philadelphia have bad quarterbacks, so they will finish well out of the running once again.
Washington is a team I have trouble pinning down. Their defense was arguably the best in the league over the second half of last year, and they should be able to keep that going into this year. In theory Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clear improvement over Alex Smith, and their offense should be good enough to get them into the playoffs again. I still just don’t feel great about it, perhaps because I have concerns about their offensive line and their secondary. I could see any of the four NFC teams I have pegged at eight wins to jump ahead and claim the last spot, but I feel slightly better about Washington than any of them.
NORTH
Green Bay Packers: 13-4Minnesota Vikings: 8-9
Chicago Bears: 8-9
Detroit Lions: 4-13
Green Bay is the one team in the NFC I could see challenging the Buccaneers. They don’t have the same across-the-board strength as Tampa Bay, but their top-line talent is definitely up there. With Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, David Bakhtiari, and Jaire Alexander, they have top three players at four of the five most valuable positions (and Za’Darius Smith at pass rusher isn’t a slouch either). They run a slightly higher risk if these players miss games, but if they stay mostly healthy Green Bay should run away with this division.
Minnesota and Chicago could both contend for a wild card spot, but ultimately I think they end the season with more middling records. In Chicago’s case this is because they don’t have the firepower on offense to support an aging defense, and Justin Fields isn’t yet capable of being an offense on his own. Minnesota will get off to a fast start and look in position to compete with the Packers at the halfway point, before fading down the stretch as their thin roster gets beaten up. Detroit will only be competing for the top pick in the draft, but I have them ending with disappointment there as well.
AFC
SOUTHTennessee Titans: 11-6
Indianapolis Colts: 7-10
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
Houston Texans: 3-14
Houston is my selection to finish with the first pick in next year’s draft. This could go against me if somehow Deshaun Watson finds his way onto the field for them, but truth be told they’re a bad team even with an elite quarterback. Tyrod Taylor isn’t a bad fill-in option, but he really doesn’t have anything to help him out. This team has been stripped down to nothing, and three wins might be ambitious for them.
Otherwise I think Tennessee will coast to another comfortable division title while once again not being up to challenging the elites of the conference. They still don’t have the strength they need to be an average defense, though they have some young pieces that will give them a chance in a year or two. Jacksonville will be happy with seven wins in their first year with Lawrence. Indianapolis will be less than thrilled, as the Carson Wentz experiment ends in failure.
WEST
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7
Denver Broncos: 7-10
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11
Kansas City remains the class of the AFC, and I have them finishing with the top seed in the conference once again. They’ll have a few more struggles than they did a year ago, particularly as their rebuilt offensive line comes together. But I think they’ll be playing their best football at the end of the season and be the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the third straight season.
The Raiders will muddle through another disappointing season, and despite the talent they’ve added on the offensive side of the ball, I think the Broncos will do the same. The Chargers will be in contention for a wild card spot and will ultimately claim it, even if I’m not as high on them as most people seem to be. Justin Herbert's impressive rookie season was more a measure of volume than efficiency, and I think there’s a decent chance he suffers a bit of a sophomore slump as some of his flaws become more picked apart.
EAST
Buffalo Bills: 12-5Miami Dolphins: 10-7
New England Patriots: 7-10
New York Jets: 5-12
This division is loaded with young quarterbacks, and in two or three years it could be the most competitive in football. Sadly, that won’t be the case this year. Zach Wilson and Mac Jones will be up and down as rookies, not helped by rosters that are still very lacking in supporting talent. Both have the support systems to at least give hope for the future, but in terms of competing for the playoffs they’re still at least a year away.
The Bills and Dolphins both have playoff caliber rosters around their young quarterbacks, and the difference is merely experience. After his breakout 2020, Josh Allen will hit a few more bumps in 2021 but will still be good enough to win the division. Tua Tagovailoa will be a good quarterback down the road, but he’ll have a few rough patches early in the season, particularly behind a bad offensive line. He’ll do enough to get the Dolphins into the playoffs however, helped by a defense that could be one of the best in the league.
NORTH
Baltimore Ravens: 13-4Cleveland Browns: 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-9
Cincinnati Bengals: 5-12
Baltimore is the one AFC team I can see challenging Kansas City this year. These two teams face off in the second week of the season, and that very well could be the game that decides a first round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs. I think Baltimore’s offense will be closer to the dominant unit from 2019 than the occasionally shaky group from 2020, though there are some reasons to be concerned about how their lack of depth at running back will impact them.
Cleveland expects to take another step forward after breaking through a year ago, and they’ll be mostly frustrated as they have to settle for another wild card spot. Baker Mayfield will have some struggles and turn the ball over a lot more than he did last year, but the defense will step forward enough to get them into the postseason. The Steelers will go out with a whimper in Ben Roethlisberger’s last season, while Cincinnati will make small but ultimately meaningless progress before parting ways with Zac Taylor at the end of the year.
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