If All Else Fails

“If 18 goes down, we’re fucked, and we don’t practice fucked.”

This quote came from Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore back in the peak of Peyton Manning’s run with the team. It’s an amusing anecdote, especially for a team dealing with a quarterback as legendarily durable as Manning. But it’s also a good summary of how things work in the NFL. Just about any team will fall to pieces if they lose their starting quarterback, and it often isn’t worth investing too much in a fallback plan.

That said, every team in the league does have a backup quarterback, and this past weekend we got to see quite a few of them. At various points during the games, all of Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor, Carson Wentz, and Andy Dalton had to be helped off the field. This came after Ryan Fitzpatrick was lost in week one and Taylor Heinicke was forced to start for Washington on Thursday night.

Backup quarterbacks are having a bit of a moment right now, so I figured I’d run through and rank the backups in the league. There are a couple ways I could do this. One option would be to rank teams by just how fucked they would be, which would be heavily dependent on the dropoff between their starter and their backup. Chad Henne is a better quarterback than Mason Rudolph, but losing Patrick Mahomes would be a lot more damaging to the Chiefs than losing Ben Roethlisberger would be to the Steelers.

But I decided against that approach. This ranking is based entirely on the merits of the backup quarterbacks themselves, independent of the starters. It’s also done as if injuries have not happened, so still treating Fitzpatrick as the starter in Washington and pretending Marcus Mariota is healthy in Las Vegas.

And now, starting from the bottom:

Tier 1: Can Any of Our Wide Receivers Throw?

We’ve seen these guys play before. Let’s hope we never have to see it again.

32) Minnesota Vikings - Sean Mannion
The Vikings coaches rave about Mannion’s intelligence and his value in constructing the gameplan during the week. So he’s basically a super highly paid quarterbacks coach who might someday be forced into action. It has happened before, as he has two career starts and 74 career pass attempts. He’s still searching for his first career touchdown though.

31) Cincinnati Bengals - Brandon Allen

Allen was better last year in Cincinnati than he was two years ago in Denver, but that isn’t saying much. He struggles to consistently hit open receivers, and he panics anytime pressure gets remotely near him. Cincinnati’s season died when Burrow went down in 2020. The same thing will happen if they lose him for any stretch in 2021.

30) Jacksonville Jaguars - CJ Beathard

Kyle Shanahan seems to make every quarterback look good, and Beathard still looked pretty awful when he was in San Francisco. I can’t imagine things will go any better in Jacksonville, and I’m still puzzled why the Jaguars decided to trade away a perfectly good backup option in Gardner Minshew right before the season. Really this team would be perfect for someone like Mannion, a long-time veteran who is more a coach than a real quarterback. Maybe Beathard is that guy behind the scenes, but based solely on what he’s done on the field I’m not sure what he brings to a roster.

 29) Atlanta Falcons - Josh Rosen
It’s tough here because Rosen is still so young and showed so much potential in college, and he got put into some pretty awful situations to start his career. But he was also historically terrible when he was on the field, and the way he’s bounced around rosters suggests that none of his coaches see any sign of him growing as a player.

 

Tier 2: Unknown

None of these guys have done anything at the NFL level. In fact, it’s hard to rank them in this tier because we really haven’t seen anything good or bad from them. So I mostly just relied on college production to judge them. Most likely they are all terrible, but maybe there’s a hidden gem in here.

28) Detroit Lions - Tim Boyle

Tim Boyle may be the most baffling NFL player I’ve ever seen. In three years at UConn he threw 13 interceptions and only one touchdown. He then transferred to Eastern Kentucky, where his performance leapt up to 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in one year. In three years with Green Bay he attempted only four passes, and that was somehow enough to get him signed to be the backup in Detroit. That resume has earned him over $4 million by the age of 26. Good for him.

27) New York Jets - Mike White

I’ll give the Jets some credit. They made sure there will be no pressure if Zach Wilson struggles, because no one has any idea who their backup quarterback is. White has the most anonymous name on this list, and likely the most anonymous background as well (a fifth round selection out of Western Kentucky with no regular season NFL pass attempts). But his numbers in college are pretty good, which at least puts him ahead of some of the others on this list.

26) Dallas Cowboys - Cooper Rush

I was a bit surprised that the Cowboys decided to keep Rush as their backup as opposed to Ben DiNucci, who at least got some experience on the field last year. DiNucci is still on their practice squad, and in a desperate situation they may very well turn to him. But Rush is the second guy among players on their active roster, even though all three of his career regular season passes came in 2017. His numbers at Central Michigan don’t really blow me away either, but maybe he’s grown since then.

25) Tennessee Titans - Logan Woodside

Picking between some of the names in this section is a pretty meaningless exercise. Woodside is above Rush because he put up better numbers in the MAC back in 2016, but neither has done anything in the NFL to make me feel one way or another about them. I guess I kind of like the name “Logan Woodside” more than I like the name “Cooper Rush”, though once again that’s pretty marginal.

24) Baltimore Ravens - Tyler Huntley

The one thing Huntley brings that the names above him do not is mobility. He’s an excellent athlete who was productive on the ground in college. Naturally this means he isn’t much of a passer, but as a backup option mobility can often be a unique challenge for opposing defenses. Given enough time these defenses will adjust to containing someone like Huntley, but if it’s just for a game or two he has the potential to cause some headaches.

23) Indianapolis Colts - Jacob Eason

Eason may end up getting his first start this weekend, though there are reports that the Colts may instead be looking to give some playing time to Brett Hundley who they just signed fresh off the street, which is hardly an endorsement of last year’s fourth round selection. Eason has a massive arm but is a statue in the pocket, which could be an issue if he’s forced onto the field behind a battered Colts offensive line.

22) Carolina Panthers - PJ Walker

Walker actually looked decent in the very limited action he saw last year. Not good, and not even really average, but enough that I can’t completely write him off as a lost cause like I did the four in the section above. And since that’s the case, his performance pushes him towards the top of the group of “unknowns”. He’s probably bad, but I suppose there’s a chance he isn’t.

21) Houston Texans - Davis Mills

This is obviously a messy situation. In truth Tyrod Taylor is the backup, and if I was counting him in this role the Texans would likely be the very best in the league. But instead I’m going to follow the lead of both the Texans organization and the NFL office, and pretend that Deshaun Watson doesn’t exist. In that case their backup is the rookie Mills, who I bumped up a couple spots after his debut performance on Thursday night was merely lifeless rather than the disaster I expected.

20) Green Bay Packers - Jordan Love

Love is the only first round selection on this list and likely the only one expected to one day become a starter. I actually did like him as a prospect, and reviews of him in practice with Green Bay have been mixed but trending up. In a couple years this ranking could look pretty stupid, but I couldn’t bring myself to rank him above players who have actually looked occasionally competent in NFL games.

 

Tier 3: At Least They Have Experience

Sometimes simply not being a disaster is the most you can hope for from a backup. These quarterbacks aren’t good, but they at least won’t be completely out of their depths if they’re thrown onto an NFL field. They’ll just be an ordinary kind of bad, rather than something truly special.

19) New England Patriots - Brian Hoyer

Hoyer isn’t good, but he has a good relationship with the coaching staff in New England, and that will keep things running smooth if he has to step onto the field. The Patriots haven’t been asking much of Mac Jones early on, and I imagine their offense would transition rather smoothly if they needed Hoyer to do the handing off and checking down instead. At least until he goes out and throws another of the baffling interceptions that have haunted him his entire career.

18) New York Giants - Mike Glennon

Glennon has gotten plenty of opportunities to start, including five games for the Jaguars a year ago. It wasn’t pretty, but when is it ever in Jacksonville? The Giants are now his sixth team, and he’s been on the field before with mostly-awful supporting casts. He isn’t going to panic if he’s dropped into yet another ugly situation.

17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Blaine Gabbert

Gabbert has hung around admirably well after flaming out as a top ten selection in 2011. He hasn’t started a game since 2018, and it didn’t go particularly well the last time he was on the field. But he’s in a good situation in Tampa Bay, and if he can keep himself calm in the pocket, he has the ability to distribute the ball on time and within structure. He’ll always be a mess when things break down, but there are plenty of starters in the league you can say that about as well.

16) Los Angeles Chargers - Chase Daniel

Daniel is one of the NFL’s greatest finesse kings. He has been in the league since 2009, and in that time he has earned $38.9 million. He has very rarely found his way onto the field, only starting five games and only throwing 261 regular season pass attempts (that works out to around $150k per pass attempt). When he has been forced to play, he’s been fine enough to avoid killing his team. And that’s enough to keep him drawing seven figure checks each year.

15) Pittsburgh Steelers - Mason Rudolph

Rudolph was a mess when he started eight games in 2019, but he looked almost competent in his one start in 2020, when he almost led Pittsburgh’s reserve unit to an upset victory over the Browns. It’s enough to make me believe he wouldn’t completely sink the Steelers if he was forced into the starting lineup this year, though I’m a little concerned the Steelers still view him as a possible heir apparent when Ben Roethlisberger finally realizes he’s cooked.

14) Denver Broncos - Drew Lock

There may still be a little juice in the Lock as a future starter concept. Not much, but some. After a rough first two years that were riddled with inconsistent play and poorly timed injuries, he had a chance to earn the starting role again this year but lost out to Teddy Bridgewater, who right now is playing the best football of his career. But Lock still has talent, and he’s flashed moments of competent quarterback play. If he finds his way back onto the field, it isn’t out of the question he can cobble something together.

 

Tier 4: You Might Not Be Totally Screwed

If these guys take over for the rest of the season, you can pretty much write their teams off. If they take over for a week or two however, things could end up working out okay.

13) Los Angeles Rams - John Wolford

Wolford impressed enough in limited action a year ago to jump him up to this tier. He performed well leading the Rams to a victory over the Cardinals in the penultimate week of 2020, and he had a chance to show off even more when he got the playoff start against Seattle. Unfortunately that performance ended with a first quarter neck injury, and he’s now comfortably second on the depth chart behind Matthew Stafford. He’s still only 25 years old though, so hopefully he’ll find some way back onto the field down the road.

12) Arizona Cardinals - Colt McCoy

McCoy is very comfortable in his backup role. He’s gotten a couple chances to start through his career, and he’s avoided doing anything super embarrassing. He just doesn’t have the physical tools needed to be successful as an NFL starting quarterback, and that’s perfectly fine for a backup. The offense will be somewhat limited with him in charge, but a limited offense can work for a little while.

11) New Orleans Saints - Taysom Hill

Who knows what to make of Hill? He’s obviously not good at playing quarterback, but he brings enough athleticism to give headaches to opposing defenses. For a game or two he’s an interesting option, and he has won games as a starter in the past. And if they need anyone for a longer duration, the Saints may choose instead to give Trevor Siemian the bulk of the snaps, not a terrible option either.

10) Seattle Seahawks - Geno Smith

I may be the last person left on Geno Smith Island. He won't ever be a regular starter again, and nor should he be, but his brief time leading the Jets showed me enough to believe that he can perform well enough in a small sample to keep a team afloat. His previous struggles have left him as a bit of a punch line, but a track record of not being totally overwhelmed on the field is about the best you can ask for from a backup quarterback.

9) Buffalo Bills - Mitchell Trubisky

Similar to Smith, Trubisky goes from a joke as a starter to an impressive backup. Less than a year ago he was starting for a playoff team, and the physical ability he brings to the table is enough to make up for some of his other failings. He’ll miss some throws, he’ll make some mistakes, and you can’t count on him to be consistent enough to build an offense around. But let him loose to run around and use his athleticism to make plays, and good stuff might happen.

8) Cleveland Browns - Case Keenum

Keenum is at his best when no one is expecting anything of him. Multiple times through his career he has found his way onto the field, flashed energy and potential, then wilted as soon as he is given more responsibility. At this point in his career I doubt he’ll ever be looked to as a regular starter again, which is probably the best case for him. He should have a few more chances to jump onto the field and flash his playmaking abilities for a game or two, before going back to the bench to wait for the next opportunity to help his team.

 

Tier 5: “Starters”

Yeah, I’m kind of tired of playing this game. These two teams have highly drafted rookie quarterbacks, and both of them will be starting well before the end of the year. The veterans they have as placeholders are pretty good options as backups, and pretty poor options as starters. So let’s just treat them as backups for the purpose of this list.

7) San Francisco 49ers - Jimmy Garoppolo

Garoppolo should remain the nominal starter for a few more weeks, but as soon as the 49ers drop a couple games they will make the switch to Trey Lance and force Garoppolo back into his more natural backup role. He led the 49ers to the Super Bowl two years ago, but that was always a bit of a mirage. He’s capable of being functional in an offensive scheme that elevates every quarterback put into it, but he doesn’t have the playmaking skills to do what his teams needs late in games or when they fall behind. Maybe he’ll get a chance to start again, but I think it’s more likely he’ll go back to the comfortable backup life he had in New England.

6) Chicago Bears - Andy Dalton

Dalton is the platonic ideal of a backup quarterback, and if it wasn’t for the messy starting situation I’d probably bump him up a few spots on this list. He has tons of experience, he’s a very smart player, and he’s bland enough that no fans will be hounding for him to take over as the full-time starter. He’s a great player to have around Justin Fields, who will lock down that starting spot soon enough.

 

Tier 6: Hey Nick Foles Won a Super Bowl, Didn’t He?

These players are better than some of the actual starters in the league. They aren’t long-term answers at quarterback, but in the short-term they can hold down the fort and win a couple games. They have starting experience, they understand how to run offenses, and if absolutely everything breaks right you might even be able to go on a bit of a run with them.

5) Philadelphia Eagles - Joe Flacco

Flacco may be the hardest player on this list to rank. On the one hand, he’s hit a higher level of play than any other backup quarterback in the NFL. On the other hand, he seems to be worse each time he stepped on a football field over the past few years. The base level of historic production is enough to get him into the top tier, but his recent performance makes it hard to rank him anywhere other than last among that group.

4) Washington Football Team - Taylor Heinicke

Heinicke is a little weird too. On the one hand he has some impressive results, with a win over the Giants last week and nearly a shocking upset of Tampa Bay in last year’s playoffs. On the other hand, it’s very clear watching him that things are going to go sideways sooner or later. He plays a very aggressive style and has gotten away with a lot of mistakes. It’s very reminiscent of Keenum with the Vikings during their NFC Championship run a couple years ago, before he came crashing back to reality.

3) Kansas City Chiefs - Chad Henne

Henne’s ranking on this list is carried heavily on the shoulders of his performance in the playoffs a year ago, when he came off the bench and held things reasonably steady enough to sneak the Chiefs past Cleveland. It was a huge stage, and he did what was asked of him, which is about the best thing you can say about a backup quarterback.

2) Miami Dolphins - Jacoby Brissett

No one has ever really been interested in giving Brissett a real chance at a starting role. He didn’t play his way out of the job in Indianapolis, but he didn’t do anything to step up and claim it either. If you surround him with a lot of talent, he can probably be a starter for a playoff team. Otherwise he’s a solid journeyman veteran who can work as a bridge starter for a team waiting to invest in someone younger or as a backup who can jump in and lead the team for a short while if needed.

1) Las Vegas Raiders - Marcus Mariota

I’m still a bit puzzled when thinking about Mariota’s tenure in Tennessee. There were moments where he looked like he was ready to take the next step, and he simply never did. It doesn’t look great for him that Ryan Tannehill performed so much better when he took over as the Titans starter, but I’m not 100% ready to write Mariota off yet. I think he’ll get another chance someday, and I think he still has the potential to turn into a league average starting quarterback.

What We Learned from Week One

The first week of NFL action is behind us, and now it’s time for our annual overreactions. It’s easy to jump to wild conclusions after a single game, and it’s even easier to write things off as a one-week fluke. But there are things we can learn from the games that happened this past weekend, even if sometimes they tell us more about one team than about the other.

Cincinnati Bengals – 27

Minnesota Vikings – 24
An opening week loss to Cincinnati is causing a lot of people to hit the panic button about the Vikings. They certainly didn’t play well, in a game that saw them hit double-digit penalties before halftime and fumble away an opportunity to win in overtime. Kirk Cousins missed throws down the field, they allowed Ja’Marr Chase to run wide open through their secondary, and they struggled to generate any consistent pressure with their refreshed and rebuilt defensive front.

There are reasons to worry about Minnesota, but for the most part they are the same worries we had before last weekend’s game. Their offensive line is still a major problem area. Cousins always plays like garbage the first couple weeks of the season. They’ve turned over basically their entire starting defense from the end of last season, and it will take some time for that unit to come together. This is a team with very little margin for error, and they can’t afford to play a game as filled with mistakes as the one we saw last on Sunday. Perhaps those mistakes will continue to recur, but I’m more willing to bet on the track record of a team that has been among the ten best at avoiding penalties each of the past three seasons.

It isn’t a surprise that the Vikings stumbled early in the season. The bigger surprise was that Cincinnati was the team that took advantage of this. I expected Minnesota to get off to a rough start with games coming up against Arizona, Seattle, and Cleveland, but I expected even a mediocre effort to be able to wipe the Bengals off the field. It turns out Cincinnati may be a bit feistier than I expected.

The big key for Cincinnati this year is the growth and health of Joe Burrow, and on Sunday he was pretty solid. He didn’t do much in terms of remarkable plays, but he did a good job getting the ball out in rhythm and on target to open receivers. The Bengals asked him to do very little, especially late in the game after he’d taken some hits and looked to be limping on the knee he injured last year. It’s not the sort of performance to completely dispel the old concerns or to raise new ones, but it’s a start.

The real surprise came in a supporting cast that performed better than I anticipated. Chase was particularly impressive, with 5 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown after the worst preseason imaginable. He was both physical and explosive, and he looked every bit the number one receiver they drafted him to be. The offense was further buoyed by a solid performance from the much-maligned offensive line. The interior still had some struggles, but the tackle duo of Jonah Williams and Riley Reiff locked down a talented Vikings defensive line and look like they may give the Bengals much-needed stability in their pass protection.

The defense was a pleasant surprise as well. Minnesota’s offensive line is hardly stiff competition, but the Bengals front deserves credit for absolutely shredding it nonetheless. In particular, defensive tackles BJ Hill and Larry Ogunjobi generated consistent pressure up the middle, to go along with an excellent performance from big money free agent Trey Hendrickson on the edge. Another free agent addition, cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, put together a solid day in coverage with a difficult matchup against Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. It’s the sort of performance that suggests there is something to build on with this defense, which isn’t something I was expecting to see out of Cincinnati this year.

 

Houston Texans – 37

Jacksonville Jaguars – 21
One of the biggest surprises of the day was Houston racing out to a dominant victory over Jacksonville. The Texans had just about the worst offseason imaginable, and they were my pick to finish with the worst record in the league this year. They have no proven stars and no young talent either, and this is about as grim a football team as I can recall, leaning on veterans that most other teams had little-to-no interest in like Tyrod Taylor, Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and Brandin Cooks.

And then they came out and ran away from the Jaguars to one of the easiest victories of the day. One thing I think we underestimated is the simple competence of players who have been around for a long time. It isn’t exciting to watch the players I named above, but there’s a basic floor for their performance, at least early in the season when they’re still giving full effort. They can be trusted with basic execution because they’ve been doing it for the past decade.

And against a team like Jacksonville, basic execution can look like a superhuman accomplishment. As easy as it is to get excited about their future under Trevor Lawrence, we overlooked just how terrible this team is at every other position. On defense in particular they have no real identity and no real plan, while on offense they’re dealing with a rookie quarterback and a bunch of receivers he has no chemistry with.

The performance Lawrence put together is about what we should have expected. He made some impressive throws, but he also threw three interceptions trying to force plays down the field. He’s going to have to continue to try to force these plays, because otherwise the Jaguars have no chance of competing against even the worst NFL teams. This offense should improve as the season goes along, as Lawrence adjusts to professional defenses and the receivers figure out how to work with him. The defense though—the unit that just allowed 37 points to this Texans team—there likely isn’t any salvation coming for them.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers – 23

Buffalo Bills - 16
Buffalo did not look very good on Sunday, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. After averaging over 31 points per game last year, they barely managed half of that in their week one effort. Josh Allen’s stats from the game look more like something from his first two years—below 60% completion, 5.3 yards per attempt, multiple sacks including a costly fumble—than his breakout 2020 season. For people looking for regression from this team, Sunday appears on the surface to be the first red flag.

The thing is, they were facing a Steelers defense that is going to make a lot of offenses look terrible. The combination of TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward absolutely destroyed Buffalo up front, as they will do to pretty much every offensive line they face this season. Despite some turnover in the secondary, Pittsburgh’s defense looks every bit as lethal as it was a season ago, perhaps even more so with the addition of Melvin Ingram screaming in on designed pressures. They had the perfect gameplan for Buffalo, and they had talent on that side of the ball that no other defense in the league can match.

If anything this opening weekend victory told me more about the Steelers than it did about the Bills, and not in a good way. The defense remains elite, and that is certainly a positive sign. But the concerns I had about their offense showed up in a big way against Buffalo.

The hopes for Pittsburgh’s offense were twofold: that an offseason of recovery would revitalize Ben Roethlisberger’s aging arm, and that the rebuilt offensive line and draft selection of Najee Harris would bring their running game back from the dead. On this last point, the line looked decent in pass protection, but still opened up no lanes for Harris. He finished the day with 16 carries for 45 yards, barely finding any daylight to get to the second level where his physicality could punish opposing linebackers.

And when the Steelers tried to throw the ball, Roethlisberger looked every bit as lifeless as he did at the end of 2020. He held the ball too long, and he missed several open receivers with his passes. His attempts to push the ball down the field led to balls that flopped far short of his intended receivers, and his only real edge was recognizing when a defender was playing too physical and targeting him to draw a penalty.

After a scoreless first half, the Steelers offense did show a little life in the second half. But the big difference in this game was a touchdown scored off a blocked punt, which isn’t something they can rely on going forward. They did a good job to escape Buffalo with a win against a quality team, but the way it happened doesn’t bode well for the next 16 games.

 

Arizona Cardinals – 38

Tennessee Titans – 13
This game ended up being a lot less competitive than I expected. Arizona blasted Tennessee off the field, impressing on both sides of the ball against a team that is expected to make the playoffs this year.

It was a tough start to the season for the Titans, showing off their vulnerabilities on defense and making their offense look totally lifeless. The failures of their offensive line are particularly glaring, both in allowing Chandler Jones to demolish them as a pass rusher and in their inability to establish anything on the ground. 

This last part is a key to how this game turned out so ugly. Tennessee is not a team built to play from behind. They need to keep things competitive so their offense can stay on schedule, and once they fall behind they are forced to shift their strategy to a pass-first attack that doesn’t play to their strengths. Only 58 yards for Derrick Henry is ugly, but only 17 carries for him is maybe the more concerning number. Going forward I expect they'll be in more competitive games, which will help their offense stay within their gameplan.

Tennessee’s defense is bad, but it’s still impressive the extent to which Arizona managed to capitalize on it. The Cardinals offense we saw this past Sunday was everything they hoped to see when they brought Kliff Kingsbury up from the college ranks in 2019. They spread the field from sideline to sideline, they attacked with vertical shots and underneath, and they found clever ways to use the collection of weapons they’ve built up, particularly rookie receiver/running back/magician Rondale Moore. After a couple years of disappointing blandness, it was refreshing to see this offense live up to hopes.

Of course, a huge part of that was the performance of Kyler Murray. If they handed out MVP awards based on a single week of games, he’d be the easy choice. He distributed the ball accurately and on-time when everything was running on schedule, and he was even more impressive when things broke down. He made precise throws under pressure, and he used his unique athleticism to extend plays when the pocket broke down. This was the ideal version both of Murray and of the Cardinals as a whole, and if they can keep it up they have the potential to compete with the top teams in the NFC.

 

New Orleans Saints – 38

Green Bay Packers – 3
This was definitely the most stunning outcome of the opening weekend. The Packers were expected to be Super Bowl contenders, while the Saints were expected to take a step backwards as they transition to life after Drew Brees. They still have talent, and it wasn’t out of the question they’d be able to squeeze a tight victory out of the Packers. But I don’t think anyone saw this coming, the most dominant performance of the opening week against one of the presumed best teams in the league.

And yet, strangely, I don’t feel all that different about either of the teams involved. This was a strange game that felt like it could have been a lot more competitive than it ended up being, if just a few things had unfolded differently.

The first half of this game was a story of ball control. At halftime the Packers had controlled the football for just over eight minutes of game time, thanks to a pair of 15 play Saints drives that ended with touchdowns. Green Bay had two drives that ended in punts and one where they were forced to kick a field goal at the end of the half, and other than that they were never on the field.

The Saints put up 38 points, but their offense wasn’t exactly blowing Green Bay off the field. Jameis Winston finished with only 148 yards passing, and while their running game was decently effective, they averaged only 4.4 yards per carry and weren’t gashing the Packers on the ground the way we’ve seen some teams do in recent years. I still have questions about how effective this offense will be going forward, but this was at least a good start.

The Packers fell behind early, and this is a team that has always struggled at playing from behind. Their mediocre run defense makes it difficult for them to get opposing teams off the field, and that was borne out by New Orleans’s 5/10 success on third downs (which gets even better when you factor in two of those failed attempts turning into successful fourth down conversions).

On the other side, one criticism of Rodgers has always been his relatively weak record in games where his team has fallen behind. He’s been better in recent years, but early in his career he was known as a quarterback who almost never produced comeback victories. He’s always been a very risk-averse passer, and that works wonderfully when the Packers can jump out to a lead and can afford to let a drive or two go to waste. When they absolutely need to score however, he doesn’t ramp up his aggression the way other greats like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have done.

Oddly though, this game turned into a bit of an exception that proves the rule. Rodgers did get more aggressive in this game, and it did not work out in his favor. He threw two ugly interceptions, and the Packers converted only one of their ten third down attempts. And that’s how a minor deficit turns into a humiliating blowout.

The reason this final score was so surprising is because we aren’t used to seeing this sort of performance from Rodgers. Typically if the Packers are down a couple scores at halftime, they’ll be steady but a little cautious on offense in the second half, and end up losing by one or two scores. In this game Rodgers embraced the aggression I’ve spent years criticizing him for lacking, and it led to a 35 point loss instead. Of course, a loss is still just one loss, and I don’t think Rodgers made a mistake trying to make plays when they were down big in this game.

As far as what this means for the Packers going forward, I don’t think there’s much to read into it. Maybe this will make Rodgers a little more cautious the rest of the year, or maybe this is a sign of him deciding to cut loose in what he intends to be his final year in Green Bay. I don’t really think we’ll have many chances to see, since I doubt the Packers will fall into many double-digit halftime deficits the rest of the year. It took a lot of odd circumstances coming together to produce this result, and it’s probably better treated as a one-off occurrence.

 

Los Angeles Rams – 34

Chicago Bears – 14
The Matthew Stafford era in Los Angeles got off to an explosive start, with 34 points on Sunday Night Football and multiple touchdown passes of over 50 yards. The Rams offense showed off the vertical threat it’s lacked the past couple years with Jared Goff, and they look ready to challenge the best of the NFC.

Of course, that’s what it looks like on the surface. But I’m still not convinced this Rams offense will be all that different from the one we saw the past two seasons. Those two big passes were major points that helped them turn this from a competitive contest into a blowout, but they also came on two receivers running wide open past blown coverages. Maybe Stafford’s arm will unlock this offense, but I’d like to see it against someone other than the Bears first.

I found this game more telling about exactly where the Bears are now, particularly on defense. For pretty much my entire lifetime the Bears have endured a mediocre offense with splashes of incredible defense, including over the past few seasons. They leapt to the playoffs in Matt Nagy’s first season thanks to the best defense in the league, with elite players on every level and a masterful scheme from coordinator Vic Fangio.

The past couple years have not been as kind to them. Time has begun to sap on stars like Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks, diminishing them just enough that they aren’t able to carry a defense on their own. Quality role players like Kyle Fuller, Bryce Callahan, Adrian Amos, and Leonard Floyd have departed in free agency, and Fangio left as well to take the head coaching job in Denver. Roquan Smith looks like a developing star, but so far they haven’t been able to add other young players to step in and replace the lost talent.

All the conversation in Chicago the past few days has been about the quarterback position, but the truth is that Andy Dalton was just fine on Sunday. He threw an ugly interception and lost a fumble when he held the ball too long, but outside of those plays he typically delivered the ball accurately and on-time to the correct receivers. The problem is, those correct receivers were never far enough down the field to actually hurt the opposing defense. The Bears tried to bite their way down the field in small chunks, and the Rams responded by flying over their heads.

Dalton actually would have been a decent option at quarterback a couple years ago. His style can work in low-scoring games where field position becomes key, where they can afford to let a couple drives stall because the defense is just going to get the ball right back. But right now Chicago isn’t in a place to play that style. They can’t count on their defense to hold the opposition to nothing, so they need someone on their offense to provide explosive plays, someone like the rookie quarterback who spent most of Sunday’s game watching from the sideline.