2020 Midseason Review: Part Two

I brought the first half of my midseason review earlier this week, looking at the bottom half of the league. Today I have a look at the teams who will be competing for playoff position down the stretch.

Remember, the postseason format is different this year. For the first time seven teams will be making the playoffs from each conference. This has two impacts. First, the wild card field is deeper, so teams that might otherwise be out of contention can now convince themselves they have a shot. Second, and perhaps more crucially, only the top overall seed in each conference will earn a bye. This is a huge advantage, and the race for the best record will mean even more this year than in seasons past.

Front-Runners

This year feels more wide-open than it has been for a long time. No team looks unbeatable, and you could probably name a dozen teams that feel like they can win the Super Bowl if they get hot at the right time. Some of these beliefs are unreasonable, but someone is going to emerge from these teams as a champion. The separation of this tier from the next one has more to do with chances of getting the all-important top seed than any true measure of talent. The road may be slightly easier for these teams, but none of them is going to run away from the competition.

Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)

We start with the Chiefs, both because they’re the defending champions and because they are the closest to a true favorite this year. Their lone loss to the Raiders has them sitting in second place in the AFC, but they’re still in a good position to get the first-round bye. Everything that made this team the champions a year ago is still there. Patrick Mahomes is playing at an MVP level again. Their offense is loaded with speed that few defenses can keep up with. If anything their offense has gotten even more versatile as young players have stepped up at skill positions.

The defense has the same weaknesses as a year ago, and they can still lose in a shootout. But if there is a red flag on this team, it is the offensive line. Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff opted out of the season, Kelechi Osemele couldn’t stay healthy to replace him, and Mitchell Schwartz is dealing with injuries now too. This line was dominant during their Super Bowl run a year ago, but Mahomes has faced a lot more pressure this year, and he has a tendency to take risks with defenders in his face. He’s only thrown one interception so far, but he’s gotten lucky with some drops, and these errors could pile up down the stretch.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0)

The Steelers aren’t as good as their record suggests, but they have the inside track to the top seed in the AFC, and so far they’ve been able to handle every challenge thrown in front of them. Their defense isn’t suffocating teams like it did a year ago, but it still produces negative plays for opposing offenses at an insanely high right.

The offense is a bit of a concern. Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not what he used to be, and so far this year has had trouble stretching things down the field. He is helped by maybe the deepest receiving corp in the league, and hurt by a backfield that really has no juice. When the Steelers spread the field and attack with quick passes, they are difficult to stop on offense. But too often they find themselves stymied as they try to grind games out on the ground. This offense work in fits and starts, and eventually that will catch up to them in the loss column.

New Orleans Saints (6-2)

This team is in a similar position to the Steelers. Drew Brees is a shell of his Hall of Fame self, but he’s still accurate enough and smart enough to pick defenses apart underneath. Now that they have Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders back, they have the weaponry to make this an effective strategy. And their defense has come together as the season has gone along to give them one of the more well-rounded teams in the league.

The two victories over Tampa Bay are a huge deal. It means they are the clear favorites in the NFC South, and that the toughest part of their schedule is behind them. They have some tricky games down the road—Atlanta, Carolina, and Minnesota are all better than their records indicate—but if they handle business they should finish up with 12 or 13 wins, which will put them in contention for the top spot in the NFC.

Green Bay Packers (6-2)

When Green Bay has looked bad, they have looked very bad. Both Tampa Bay and Minnesota moved the ball at will against them, and good offenses will continue to exploit the weak points in the middle of this defense. Fortunately for Green Bay, they don’t really have any elite offenses left on the schedule. They have demonstrated an ability to beat up weaker teams put on the field against them, and with games remaining against the Jaguars, Lions, and Bears they should have plenty of opportunities to show off the rest of the year.

It took a little bit, but the switch of offensive schemes does seem to have revitalized Aaron Rodgers. He’s finally getting the easy throws that lesser quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kirk Cousins have used to be effective in recent years, and he’s putting up numbers that have him in the MVP conversation again. The offense still has problems when teams can lock down Davante Adams, but getting Aaron Jones healthy should help bring some versatility back to their passing attack.

 

Dreamers

These teams have uphill climbs ahead of them, but they are hardly impossible. There’s less margin for error for them, but if they can go on a streak they have the talent to jump back into the Super Bowl conversation.

Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

Baltimore is probably just as good a team as Pittsburgh, but two games back in the division with a loss to their rival puts them in a tough spot. Right now they are likely headed for a wild card spot, which means likely going on the road for three straight games before reaching the Super Bowl. This is a veteran, well-coached team that can pull off this sort of run, but it’s still far from ideal.

The bigger issue for them right now is figuring out how to get Lamar Jackson back to playing at an MVP level. He’s still electric on the ground, but life has gotten difficult for him as a passer. The protection up front was shaky even before Ronnie Stanley was lost for the year, and when the pass rush gets in his face he struggles to throw accurately and has a tendency to drop his eyes and take off running even when there is no lane there. They need to find a way to make life easy for him again. Whether that means keeping extra blockers in or cutting deep shots out of their passing attack, this offense is going to lose some of the dynamism that earned them the top seed in the AFC a year ago.

Buffalo Bills (7-2)

Buffalo is not the team we expected them to be this year. A year ago they were a dominant defense supported by a functional enough offense, and the best case scenario most people saw was the defense sustaining this level while Josh Allen took another moderate step forward. Instead the defense has fallen off sharply, while Allen is playing like a top ten quarterback.

It isn’t just that Allen is more efficient. It’s that he’s producing at a much higher volume. Before this year he had never thrown for more than 270 yards in a game. He’s done so six times in nine games, including a pair over 400 yards with 3 touchdowns. The Bills are happy to lean on him, as they did a week ago against Seattle where they basically abandoned the run from the start. He’s still a little up-and-down from week-to-week, and it’s tough to see him pulling off four straight great performances in a playoff environment. But if this defense can pull itself together and become an above-average unit again, the Bills are the sort of team that can keep up with anyone.

Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

As I mentioned in the section above, the Bills entered Sunday’s game against Seattle with no interest in doing anything other than passing the football. And it worked, because Seattle cannot stop anyone from throwing the football. They have no pass rush, and their secondary was bad even before it was hit by injuries. Not every team is as willing to attack solely through the air as Buffalo did, but there are several in the NFC playoff field who will be happy to put the ball in their quarterback’s hands.

The only real hope Seattle has is to hand it to Russell Wilson and hope that he can keep up. They’ve definitely taken the leash off of him some this year, and he has responded with his best season as a pro. They are going to need even more from him going forward. This means constant deep attacks down the field with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and also probably utilizing Wilson as a rusher in a way they haven’t in the past few years. They need him to be a superhero, and he’s one of the few players in the league who is capable of living up to that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

Those two losses to New Orleans are brutal. Like Baltimore, the Buccaneers are now looking at a likely wild card spot, which makes life a lot more difficult for them going forward. This is hard for them to stomach, because prior to last week they had a case as the most impressive team in the NFL this season. Their offense is explosive down the field, and their defense was playing as well as anyone before being battered to pieces by the Saints.

This Buccaneers team actually reminds me a lot of the Patriots a year ago. They got off to a hot start behind what appeared to be a revitalized Tom Brady, but were mostly driven by a dominant defense. As the year wore on, their defense regressed and Brady looked worn down by the long season. Maybe things will be different this year—there isn’t as much room for this defense to regress, and Brady will benefit from a more talented supporting cast and more pleasant weather. But the arrow is pointing down for this team, and I think they are just as likely to be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the year as pushing for a Super Bowl.

 

Not Quite There

These teams are flawed, and they have tough roads ahead. They aren’t really in contention for a bye, and they probably don’t have what it takes to go on any sort of postseason run. These are teams that entered the year hoping to be competitive, but for one reason or another they’ve fallen short.

Los Angeles Rams (5-3)

This 5-3 record is as deceptive as any in the league. The Rams are 4-0 in games against the NFC East, and 1-3 against all other opponents. They still have two games each against the Seahawks and the Cardinals, plus another against Tampa Bay. It’s not hard to imagine them completely falling apart down the stretch and missing the playoffs altogether.

That isn’t to say they’re a bad team. They’ve mostly taken care of business against the mediocre opponents they’ve faced. Jared Goff remains a perfectly capable quarterback wen you aren’t asking too much of him, and with Darrell Henderson sliding into the primary running back role they’ve gotten back the offensive balance they were missing a year ago. But they still just don’t have a lot of talent on this roster. They sent away draft picks in droves to try to build their team for 2018, and now they are suffering the consequences of the drain in young talent. Unfortunately they don’t have a draft pick next year either, so it’s going to be a struggle to patch these holes.

Tennessee Titans (6-3)

There are pieces in place for the Titans. Derrick Henry is dangerous when you can open a lane for him, and even with some injuries and issues in pass protection, this remains a solid run-blocking offensive line. Ryan Tannehill now has more than a season of elite level play in this scheme, and at this point it’s pretty clear that he is a top ten quarterback in the league right now. Second-year players AJ Brown and Jeffrey Simmons look like one of the best draft classes in recent memory, and Mike Vrabel has proven to be a very capable head coach.

They are building something in Tennessee, but it still hasn’t come together. Their offense can find themselves slamming repeatedly into a wall against teams with a strong defensive front, but the bigger concern is their defense. The front has some nice players, but the secondary is full of holes that competent quarterbacks can pick apart. And unfortunately when they get to the playoffs, they are going to have trouble containing the top quarterbacks in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

The difference between the Colts and teams above them like Pittsburgh and New Orleans primarily comes down to their offensive weapons. Philip Rivers has declined much like Roethlisberger and Brees, but where the other two have deep and talented receiving corps to lean on, the Colts really don’t have much to work with. They don’t have anyone they can trust to win one-on-one matchups, and their running game has suffered with the loss of Marlon Mack. This offense can work as it did on Thursday against the Titans, but against top defenses they have a habit of going completely silent.

Even when that happens, the Colts have the defense to keep them in games. DeForrest Buckner is playing out of his mind, looking well worth the cost of the first round pick the Colts traded to get him. And with a resurgence from veterans like Xavier Rhodes and Justin Houston, this defense is performing like one of the best in the league. They can keep things competitive in ugly games, but I don’t think they have what it takes on offense to win four straight in the playoffs.

 

Happy to Be Here

Like the group above, these teams are right in the thick of the playoff race without really being contenders for a championship. Unlike the three I just listed, this group doesn’t particularly mind where they’re at. These teams are trending up, and a postseason appearance this year will provide crucial experience for seasons to come.

Arizona Cardinals (5-3)

Arizona’s step forward on offense this year has been better than even the most optimistic fan could have expected. DeAndre Hopkins remains arguably the best wide receiver in football, and he has developed an instant rapport with Kyler Murray. Murray has taken a major leap forward in his second year and is on the fringe of MVP conversation. He is still occasionally inconsistent as a passer, but the Cardinals have now fully weaponized him as a rushing threat, and he is on pace to have more than 1000 yards on the ground this year.

The defense is still a work in progress. The loss of Chandler Jones is a huge blow, and they simply don’t have the talent to make up for this. They have some playmakers at the back end, and when things break right they can produce scoring opportunities with their defense on the field. But most of the time they struggle to get opposing offenses off the field. They have potential here, but it will probably take another year or two to pull things together. And in the meantime they will continue to drop games they need to win.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)

I was skeptical of the Jon Gruden hiring after years away from an NFL sideline, but he seems to be the key to finally unlocking Derek Carr. Carr isn’t an MVP passer by any means, but with Gruden calling the shots he seems finally willing to attack down the field. With a bevy of young skill position talent, he is in a perfect position to succeed on an offense that can attack from multiple directions.

If only their defense was the same story. The investments they’ve made on that side of the ball continue to show minimal results, and at this point it’s worth questioning a lot of the decisions made by GM Mike Mayock. Damon Arnette has been wildly inconsistent, and Clelin Ferrell has the looks of a major bust, with no sacks this year after being taken with the fourth overall selection as their pass rusher of the future in 2019. There’s virtually nothing to build around on this side of the ball, and as good as their offense is, it isn’t at the elite level of a team like Kansas City or Seattle where it can carry the team on its own.

Miami Dolphins (5-3)

I don’t think there’s a coach in the NFL who has done a better job over the past two years than Brian Flores. The Dolphins should not be competitive at this point, yet right now they are in the mix for a wild card spot. There was a lot of consternation a couple weeks back when they decided to make the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa in the middle of a winning streak, but two victories later it seems unlikely Tagovailoa will surrender the starting role for the next decade. He still has a lot of room to grow, but he’s making plays when the offense needs them.

They don’t need them much because this defense is electric. They invested heavily in the secondary this offseason, and they’ve built the unit around being able to lock teams up on the back end. They play as aggressive a style as any defense in the league, regularly sending all-out blitzes with cover-zero behind it. Sometimes this burns them, but more often they are able to harass opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. The talent on this team is not up to the level of the teams they are competing with in the AFC, but the play-calling on both sides of the ball is elevating them above that level. And with a likely high draft pick headed their way from the Texans, they have a chance to build into a truly competitive team starting as soon as next year.

Cleveland Browns (5-3)

An extra year has passed, but the Browns are pretty much exactly where we thought they’d be at the start of the 2019 season. They’re good enough to push for the playoffs, but not good enough to compete with quality teams. In their games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh this year they were run off the field with ease, but they’ve handled business against the lesser opponents they’ve faced.

Myles Garrett is putting together a Defensive Player of the Year caliber season, and their offensive line has taken a major leap forward and is performing as one of the best units in the league this year. Baker Mayfield is still a questionmark though. He hasn’t developed at all since his rookie season, and he still make far too many mistakes trying to operate outside the structure of the offense. He doesn’t work through his progressions particularly well, and he regularly breaks from clean pockets trying to create big plays where they simply aren’t there. Until this gets cleaned up, the Browns will remain a talented team on the outside looking in. After more than a decade of total incompetence, this is still a breath of fresh air, but there is only so much patience that can be given to a team with this much potential.