2020 Midseason Review: Part One

We are more or less halfway through the NFL season. Every team has played at least eight games, and now it’s time to start looking ahead at the playoff races shaping up. Of course, not everyone is in playoff contention, even with the expanded field of 14 teams this year.

Today I’m addressing the bottom half of the league (actually there are 17 teams included today and 15 later this week, but close enough). I’ve separated these teams into tiers based on what I expect from them the rest of the year.

So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance

The two teams in this category are coming from very different places, but they both weirdly find themselves in similar situations. Halfway through the year, they are still alive to grab one of the wild card spots in the NFC. There are clear flaws that could doom them, but there are also strengths they can lean on as well. And it just so happens they face each other on Monday night, which will play a major role in deciding who is still alive and who is fighting a lost cause down the stretch.

Chicago Bears (5-4)

The Bears changed quarterbacks in week 3, and the team remained exactly the same. Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky are very different quarterbacks stylistically, but they share one important trait: they aren’t good enough. Not behind an offensive line that was mediocre even before it was battered by injuries, and not throwing to a receiving corps that has nothing going except Allen Robinson. This offense is lifeless, and there isn’t a quarterback on the roster that can change that.

Still, the Bears are 5-4, and if the season ended today they’d be just half a game out of a playoff spot. Many of their early season wins came through dumb luck in games where they were outplayed, but that doesn’t take the wins off the board. They still have a terrifying defense that can steal a few points each game. And even though they’re trending down right now, their schedule the rest of the way presents them with enough opportunities to stumble into nine or ten victories.

Minnesota Vikings (3-5)

Maybe I’m too much of an optimist. Maybe the team that folded against the Colts and the Falcons will pop up again down the stretch, and the Vikings will lose several games that appear winnable. This team has a very Jekyl-and-Hyde feel, and it all flows from their running game. When they are finding success on the ground, they can compete with anyone. When their run game is stymied, they aren’t able to adapt on the fly to find the offensive success they need to support a shaky defense.

It isn’t even about Dalvin Cook, although keeping him healthy will certainly be helpful to their playoff chances. It’s about their offensive line. This unit has run hot and cold for years, but there is reason for hope after a couple strong games from rookie Ezra Cleveland appear to have patched some of the issues on the interior. Their victory over Green Bay two weeks ago shows what they are capable of, and with games remaining against the Lions, the Jaguars, the Panthers, and the Cowboys (plus two against the Bears) they have the sort of schedule that could allow them to get hot and snag the last playoff spot despite their poor record in the first half of the year.

NFC East

I don’t have much more to say about the NFC East as a division. They’re a disgrace, but they’re still going to send a team to the playoffs. They deserve their own category here, because even the competitive teams could be in contention for a top draft pick if they fall a couple games behind in this race.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1)

On paper the Eagles should be the clear favorites. They have the best record in the division after two straight victories over division rivals. They have the only healthy quarterback who has demonstrated competence in the NFL at points in the past. They should be getting healthier on offense after a bevy of injuries killed them earlier in the year. Of all these teams, they’re the only one I can see approaching some degree of respectability down the stretch.

But every time I think this, they go out and do something humiliating. I’ve never been a fan of Carson Wentz, but even I didn’t expect this disaster of a performance. Even if you cut him some slack for the lack of talent on this depleted offense, you can’t explain the utterly nonsensical decisions he continues to make multiple times each week. The Eagles should win this division, but they also should be a lot farther ahead than they are right now. And with a less than friendly schedule ahead, I think it’s likely that this remains a battle for the rest of the season.

Dallas Cowboys (2-7)

Dallas put up a good fight this past weekend against Pittsburgh, and it should give them reason to hope they can be competitive the rest of the year. Garrett Gilbert looked much more competent than Ben DiNucci, and their offensive line seemed stabilized with a healthy Zack Martin. They still have a lot of talent on offense, and simple competence from quarterback may be enough for them to scrap their way to a couple unexpected victories.  

The question is whether this is something they actually want. A playoff appearance is always fun, but they certainly aren’t going far without Dak Prescott. They would likely benefit more from a high draft selection if they continue their losing ways. The smart move would be to use that pick on the defensive side of the ball to help a unit in desperate need of playmakers. But I wouldn’t count them out of the quarterback sweepstakes in the draft. This year should demonstrate just how valuable Dak Prescott is and should get them to roll out the massive contract he rightly deserves. But if they listened to me, they would have paid him long before it got to this point.

New York Giants

What is Daniel Jones? He’s better than I thought he would be entering the league, but that’s not a high bar to clear, and at times it seems like he is just barely scraping over it. Every time he looks like a capable quarterback distributing the ball around the field with his strong arm and his athleticism, he follows it up with an incomprehensible mistake. He turns the ball over more than any other quarterback in the league, and he doesn’t seem to be getting any better at taking care of it. And while he’s competent outside of these mistakes, he doesn’t make plays at the Jameis Winston or Baker Mayfield level where it is possible to argue he is worth the negative plays.

The Giants are in a weird place. They changed coaches last offseason, but they kept around GM Dave Gettleman. I don’t think much of Gettleman, and this could be the year the Giants ownership catches up with me on this. If they change GMs, the new guy will have no commitment to Jones and will likely move on. But unless he’s also willing to cast aside head coach Joe Judge after one year, it seems strange to stick a rookie quarterback into a potentially lame-duck coaching situation. I think Jones will be back at the head of the Giants next year, and I don’t think it will really accomplish anything, other than setting them up to be in a better position to start fresh in 2022.

Washington Football Team

Washington was never in a great position, but the injury to Kyle Allen makes their position even more awkward. With him they could at least justify running out a mediocre stopgap as they tanked down the stretch, without any real commitment going forward. Now that he’s injured, they have a tough choice to make at the position. It feels almost unethical to continue to run Alex Smith out there after he’s looked completely lifeless in two appearances so far. But I don’t think they’ll go back to Dwayne Haskins. Ron Rivera clearly never had any interest in giving him a chance—for reasons to I have to imagine are as much off the field as on—and even a breath of competence might make it difficult for him to cast aside a recent first round pick and go out to get his own guy this offseason.

I’m not sure what else there is to say about this team. Chase Young is as good as advertised, and Terry McLaurin is quickly emerging as a top ten NFL wide receiver. Their new uniforms look good I guess, and I’m mildly excited to see what they come up with as their new mascot this offseason, the first team to change this up since the Oilers became the Titans in 1999. But when I’m talking about uniforms and mascots, you know there’s not much there on this roster. In any other division we’d be talking about them in the chase for the first overall pick. Instead they’re still within reach of a playoff spot, with plenty of opportunities to add more wins down the stretch.

 

Too Little, Too Late

These aren’t exactly bad teams. In fact, some of them are actually fun teams. Their records right now means that they have almost no shot to make the playoffs. But it will at least be a little worthwhile to tune in to their games now and then the rest of the season.

Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

For the second straight season, the Falcons seem primed for a second-half run that is ultimately futile thanks to the calamity of their start to the season. They are playing better recently with three wins in their past four games. But their schedule the remainder of the year is brutal (Kansas City, Las Vegas, and two each against Tampa Bay and New Orleans). They will steal a few of those games to mess up some postseason hopes, but they won’t be able to run the table, which is what they will likely need to make the postseason.

The remainder of the season will play a big role in shaping their offseason. They will be bringing in a new coach and new general manager, and whoever they get will likely want to build the team from the ground up sooner or later. It will be easier for them to do so this offseason if Atlanta bombs down the stretch, but if they can pull off a few upsets and get close to a .500 record, it’s possible they will try to run this current roster back for one more year.

Houston Texans (2-6)

The Texans aren’t a complete disaster, and they have enough winnable games over the remainder of the season to put together at least a respectable record. Their schedule to this point is a little strange—their only victories are over Jacksonville, but their defeats have come against teams with a combined record of 37-12. They aren’t a good team, but they’re a lot better than their record indicates. The hole they’ve dug is too deep to have any realistic playoff hopes, but they aren’t going to finish with a top-ten selection.

Which is good, because they don’t have their first round pick. They finally broke away from Bill O’Brien after their disastrous start to the year, but it will take another couple years for them to undo the damage he did to their roster. This team needs to rebuild, but they don’t really have the tools to rebuild, which means they are at least two or three seasons away. Deshaun Watson and Laremy Tunsil will likely still be around then, but I’m not sure if there is anyone else on this roster who will be. The only solace they have is Watson, who will hopefully be intriguing enough to give them their choice of coaching candidates this offseason as they try to build around him again.

San Francisco 49ers (4-5)

It’s easy to envision this team’s season playing out differently, because we saw it a year ago. In 2019 the 49ers were able to jump out to early leads, harass opposing quarterbacks with their deep defensive line, and keep things simple for Jimmy Garoppolo. In 2020 they’ve been blown off the field from the snap of the ball on multiple occasions, and a couple breezy wins over the New York teams make their record look better than it is.

In the brutal NFC West there is no room for bad luck, and the 49ers have been hit hard by injuries this year. Nick Bosa and George Kittle are both done for the year. Garoppolo has been in and out of the lineup, and he hasn’t been particularly reliable when he is on the field. Entering the offseason they have the ability to save $24 million by cutting him, an option that will be tempting if they fall apart down the stretch and finish with a high draft pick. We saw how far this team can go a year ago. If they can upgrade at quarterback and stay healthy in 2021, they have the chance for a playoff push again.

Carolina Panthers (3-6)

Expectations weren’t high in Matt Rhule’s first year, and even though their record isn’t great I think it’s reasonable to say the Panthers have outperformed them. They’ve fallen just short in a couple heartbreaking losses, otherwise they’d be in the conversation for a playoff push. They aren’t good enough to pull off the streak they’ll need the rest of the year, but they’re a team that is slowly coming together and should finish the year with reason for excitement heading into 2021.

The defense has been the biggest surprise. The first few weeks they were the disaster I expected, but they’ve fought their way to be at least functional over the past month. Jeremy Chinn is still raw as hell, but he’s an electric playmaker who flies all over the field. And Brian Burns is a budding superstar pass rusher. I have no idea if Teddy Bridgewater is a long-term answer at quarterback, but he has been exactly what they needed in Joe Brady’s offense, distributing the ball to a talented receiving corps of Robbie Anderson, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel. He’s earned an opportunity to come back next year and lead a team with the potential to take a major leap.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1)

The Bengals are a bit of an outlier in this group in that they aren’t disappointed by the outcome of this season. They’ve been bad, but they’re better now than they were a year ago, and the arrow remains pointed up. There are a lot of holes on this roster, but it looks like they’ve filled the most important one. Joe Burrow has been inconsistent at times behind a dreadful offensive line, but in recent weeks he’s been making more plays down the field, developing a good rapport with second-round selection Tee Higgins.

The remainder of this season is an evaluation period for head coach Zac Taylor. I think it would take a lot for the Bengals to make a change at the end of the year, but I still haven’t seen anything to suggest Taylor is actually a good coach. He really hasn’t been in a position to be evaluated yet. They were in a teardown phase a year ago, and the first half of this season was mostly about getting Burrow up to speed. If they can pull off a few more wins over the second half of the year, they can head into 2021 feeling confident about the two most important positions on their team.

Los Angeles Chargers (2-6)

It’s actually a fascinating conversation right now whether Burrow or Justin Herbert has been the better rookie quarterback this season. Herbert’s stats are certainly better, though he is also in a better situation and has been bolstered by insane, and possibly unsustainable, success throwing deep down the field. Whatever side you come down on, I don’t think either of these teams is upset about the debuts of their franchise quarterbacks.

The Chargers have a new quarterback, and somehow they are still the Chargers. I don’t know how to explain their continued ineptitude in late-game situations. It goes beyond coaching, beyond players, beyond anything that can be explained by natural means. I keep expecting it to revert, and it keeps not happening. This team has the talent to make a second-half surge and grab a wild card spot, but at this point it seems foolish to expect anything other than the usual Chargers heartbreak.

 

Where Are They Going?

These teams are as dead as those in the group above. Unlike the group above, there’s really no reason to pay attention to them over the remainder of the season. They aren’t going to win games, and they aren’t building anything towards next year. They’re just kind of spinning their wheels.

New England Patriots (3-5)

It looked so good the first few weeks of the season. This defense was dominating, and Cam Newton was revitalized at the head of a grinding running game. But Newton’s COVID absence seems to have thrown their entire offense off-sync. They can’t stretch defenses down the field, and without that threat their opponents are able to pack the box and shut down their running game. Over a stretch of four straight defeats they scored a total of 49 points. I don’t care how good your defense is, you can’t win consistently with that.

What is Newton at this point? Is he the player we saw the first few weeks that looked like the perfect fit in this offense? Or is he the player we saw over the following month, the player he was during his last couple appearances in Carolina? At this point, I don’t think there’s much chance anyone commits to him as a long term quarterback solution. The Patriots will have the rest of the year to evaluate him, and then they’ll have a decision to make this offseason. I don’t think Bill Belichick wants to start over with a rookie quarterback, but there might be no other path forward for them at the position.

Denver Broncos (3-5)

Denver is a bit perplexing to me. Every time I flip over to one of their games they are doing something absolutely terrible, yet they somehow end up competitive at the end of most of them. Drew Lock still seems mostly lost at quarterback, but he makes enough plays that it’s hard to justify casting him aside entirely. Even with the injury to Courtland Sutton they have a lot of talent on offense, and when everything is operating smoothly they are a headache to contain.

Can they find any more consistency on offense? They’re going to have to if they want to have any chance of a playoff push. Their defense looks good by some advanced metrics, but it isn’t dynamic without Von Miller and with Bradley Chubb still a little slow coming back. They don’t force mistakes from the other team, and they make too many mistakes of their own when they have the ball. I don’t see the former changing with the talent currently on their defense, so they are going to have to clean up the latter to have any chance going forward. Lock is the big question, one they will likely have to deal with in the offseason. At least in 2020 though, I don’t think he’s a real solution.

Detroit Lions (3-5)

Three years into the Matt Patricia era, the Lions are exactly the same team they were when he started. Matthew Stafford is enough to achieve basic competence on offense, which keeps them from the very bottom of the NFL’s basin. The overall weakness of their roster and the utter ineptitude of their coaching staff is enough to make sure they don’t even sniff a playoff appearance.

I’m not sure why Patricia is still the coach. I expect they’ll fire him at the end of this season, but counting on the Lions is usually a foolish decision. This team is undisciplined, untalented, and bland in every schematic way. And now that O’Brien is no longer in Houston, Patricia is the clearest example that Bill Belichick’s style doesn’t work without Bill Belichick’s football genius. No one will be upset to see the Lions move on from their coach if they make that (correct) decision this offseason.

 

Tanking Season

These two teams want to lose, and they are going to meet those expectations. Stripped of talent, they hope to get a shot of one of the top quarterbacks from this year’s draft, so they can start over from scratch in 2021 and forget this entire season ever happened.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)

We are a long way from the opening week victory over the Colts that briefly convinced us that the Jaguars might not be completely terrible. A couple lifeless months have passed, and now the Jaguars look unlikely to get even one more victory. Their remaining schedule is brutal, and they’re juggling the quarterback position with a banged up Gardner Minshew potentially not even holding off rookie Jake Luton.

It doesn’t really matter who they play at quarterback the rest of this year. The Jaguars will likely be in position to take one of the top two quarterbacks in next year’s draft, which will allow them to finally start fresh. They’ve torn down the roster that stumbled into an AFC Championship appearance three years ago, and this offseason they will finally (hopefully) part ways with Doug Marrone and rebuild from scratch around their new quarterback.

New York Jets (0-9)

I don’t know what else there is to say about this team. There have been worse teams in recent memory, but I’m not sure I can remember a team quite this hopeless. They have no talent, but they also seem to underperform their talent each week. The only potential bright spots on their team are Quinnen Williams and Mekhi Becton, their two most recent first-round picks who at least give them something to build around when they start over next year.

There’s not much point left to the rest of the season for this team. I certainly hope there is no chance that they bring Adam Gase back next year, and unless they somehow win their way out of the top two picks, I don’t think Sam Darnold will return either. The remainder of the season is honestly just an opportunity for their players to demonstrate they might have some value next year for a team that isn’t completely lost.