2019 Midseason Review Part 2

Half the season is in the books, and half the teams appeared in Part 1 of my midseason review earlier this week. Here's part two, breaking down the sixteen teams (fifteen, really) who will be fighting for a playoff spot over the final eight weeks of the NFL regular season.

Super Bowl or Bust

These teams sit comfortably at the top of the league. They entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations, and so far they’ve lived up to the billing. The Super Bowl winner is likely going to come from this top group, as it has in each of the previous six years I’ve done this.

New England Patriots (8-1)

The Patriots lost last weekend. That was fun, if ultimately meaningless. They were never actually going to go undefeated, and they are probably going to lose a couple more times as their schedule toughens up. But by the end of the year they will still have a first round bye, and likely home field advantage as well, and they will have an easy path to yet another Super Bowl appearance.

It will be fascinating to watch how this team evolves this year. So far they have won thanks to one of the most dominating stretches of defense in recent history, supporting an offense that has been otherwise fairly average. The defense is really, really good, but they can’t possibly stay this hot, and the offense is likely going to have to step it up as the season wears on. There’s no question that they can do so, and with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady the odds are that they will. But the style of the Patriots has flipped on its head this year, and that leaves a little bit of intrigue going forward.

New Orleans Saints (7-1)

The Saints are 7-1, and they achieved this despite being without Drew Brees for five games. That would have been unthinkable a couple seasons ago, and as well as Teddy Bridgewater played in Brees’s absence, most of the credit deserves to go to a defense that has finally put all the pieces together. With Cam Jordan and the developing Marcus Davenport chasing quarterbacks and Eli Apple and Marshon Lattimore locking down on the back end, this team is a nightmare to pass against for anyone who falls behind them.

It’s scary to think what this team can accomplish if their defense can keep performing as they were when Brees was out, and their offense can reestablish its usual dominance. With Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara dicing defenses apart down the field, and one of the best lines in football shielding the quarterback, there are very few holes on this team. And with an aging quarterback who has faded some down the stretch the past couple years, the time off could be a blessing in disguise, leaving them healthy and ready for a run come December and January.

Green Bay Packers (7-2)

Another team that has surprised with strong defense, after years of being carried by their offense. The Packers have loaded up with young talent on this side of the ball, led by recent first round picks Kenny Clark and Jaire Alexander. They’ve cooled down some in recent weeks, but combined with the free agent additions of Za’Darious Smith and Preston Smith, they have the opportunity to turn things on once again.

The problem for this team is consistency, and that starts with what used to be the only reliable part of their roster. Aaron Rodgers has been all over the place this season. One week he goes out and light the Raiders up like it was 2011 again. A couple weeks later he goes out against the Chargers and looks like he’s been replaced by Mitch Trubisky. The ceiling of this team is wildly high, and the floor is just as low. If both sides of the ball turn it on at the right moment, they can ride a winning streak through the playoffs. If not, they could fall flat down the stretch and potentially miss the postseason entirely.

San Francisco 49ers (8-0)

I’m somewhat uncertain about putting the 49ers in this category, but where else should they go? After all, they’re the only undefeated team left, and other than one game against Pittsburgh where the ball turned into a greased up watermelon whenever they touched the red zone, they really haven’t been challenged by any of their opponents so far. Their point differential of +133 is second only to New England, and third place is closer to eleventh place than they are to the 49ers.

But man, you want to talk about a soft schedule. The 49ers have good wins over the Rams and the Panthers, and other than that they haven’t faced a team above .500. They’ve played a winless team, a one-win team, and two two-win teams. And the fact that they haven’t really faced a close game is a sign for concern, especially since we haven’t seen anything from Jimmy Garoppolo to convince us that he can bear the weight in that situation. The defense can win them almost any game, but when it can’t, what is their backup plan?

Are They For Real?

There are plenty of other playoff contenders, and I’m sure all of them believe in their hearts that they can win the title this year. I’m here to tell you that they’re wrong. For one reason or another these teams will fall short when December and January come around. But for now they’re sitting pretty.

Seattle Seahawks (7-2)

Of these teams the Seahawks were the hardest to drop to this level, but I ended up doing so for a couple of reasons. First of all, the division rival above them. The 49ers have a two game lead in the loss column, and if they can split the season series, they have a much easier path to the division title. Winning a Super Bowl is hard, and it is next to impossible without claiming a first round bye, which the Seahawks could easily fall short of even if they finish with 12 or 13 wins. And they may not even make it there, if they have a little bad luck the rest of the season. Six of Seattle’s seven wins have come in single score games, a track record that has proven consistently to be unsustainable.

The one thing that makes this hard is Russell Wilson. Wilson has been the best player in the league so far in 2019, and if he keeps up his current performance he is going to run away with MVP. He has done this despite playing in an offense that never really opens things up for him, forcing him to waste away handing the ball off over and over again. If the Seahawks ever do truly cut him loose, he can carry them against any opponent. But the road ahead may be too difficult even for him to manage.

Houston Texans (6-3)

The brilliance of Wilson is the only thing keeping Deshaun Watson from rising to the top of the MVP race. The Texans are still a bad football team, with a mediocre coach and a disaster of an offensive line holding them back. And yet, with Watson at the helm they keep managing to win games, as he pulls off a couple Herculean plays each game to scrap to a victory.

I don’t think that’s enough in the long run though. Not with JJ Watt done for the season, and the offense still perilously thin at just about every position. Laremy Tunsil has helped a lot to lock down Watson’s blind side, but that leaves four positions on the line that still need to be filled. Watson can do incredible things, but you can’t count on him to do them while under duress every single play. Eventually, this team will crack.

Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

It doesn’t get much more impressive than Baltimore’s win over New England last Sunday. They took on the Patriots, and they made Bill Belichick look utterly perplexed, forcing one of the best defenses in the league to run in circles chasing an offense that was more or less lining up and punching them right in the face. Lamar Jackson is a problem, and there really isn’t a solution if he’s on his game.

The problem is, he is still a 22 year old quarterback, and being on his game week in and week out is not something he is capable of just yet. He’s turned in disappointing performances that cost them against both the Chiefs and the Browns, and probably should have lost them the game against the Steelers as well. Quietly this defense has not played up to their expectations, and if Jackson is anything less than a magician against a top quality team, the Ravens are going to be in for a fight they probably can’t win.

Minnesota Vikings (6-3)

The Vikings have improved in a lot of ways from a year ago, especially on offense. Their line isn’t good, but it’s not a disaster, and a healthy Dalvin Cook has given them an elite rushing attack. And when that rushing attack is going strong, when they can get out to a lead and lean on play action, Kirk Cousins is playing at the highest level of his career.

But in a lot of ways, this team has the same flaws it had a year ago, specifically on the road and against high quality opponents. When things start going bad, things fall apart very quickly for Minnesota. Cousins struggles when asked to carry an offense. Their defense struggles when they can’t just key on the pass and their cornerbacks are placed on islands. In the games they’ve won, they’ve run out to early leads and coasted to victories. If they face off against anyone who can actually fight back, they’re going to be in for a rough ride.

Dallas Cowboys (5-3)

Dallas made the playoffs last year on the strength of a dominant defense, and even though the defense has predictably regressed some this year, the offense has stepped it up to fill in for them. Speciically Dak Prescott, who has rediscovered his rookie form on the way to leading one of the most underrated offenses in the league. With center Travis Frederick back after missing all of 2018, their offensive line is an elite unit once more, giving them security and consistency in both the running and the passing game.

And yet, just a few weeks ago this team got run off the field by the Jets, arguably the worst team in the league. Their five wins have included two victories over the Giants, plus a pair over the Dolphins and Redskins. They’ve appropriately erased the bad teams they’ve played (except for that increasingly perplexing performance against the Jets), but they were fairly noncompetitive against both the Packers and a Saints team missing Brees, which bodes poor for their chances once the postseason comes around.

Waiting to Explode

We thought these teams had a chance to win the Super Bowl prior to the season, and that potential still remains. But so far they haven’t showed it, looking like mediocre teams who will be fighting just to make the playoffs when the season ends.

Los Angeles Rams (5-3)

The defending NFC Champions just haven’t been right this year. Most of this can be placed on the shoulders of their offense. They haven’t been able to run the ball this year, and at times have simply avoided giving the ball to Todd Gurley, feeding the rumors that have lingered since the end of last season that his knees are ruined beyond repair. Rookie Darrell Henderson hasn’t had the impact as a big play threat that some people expected, turning this entire offense one dimensional.

The Rams aren’t talented enough offensively to survive playing one dimensional. Even last year their passing game was built off of their ability to run the ball, relying on play action to twist the back end of defenses and slow down the pass rush. Without the threat of the run, Jared Goff has been trapped in the pocket as pass rushers clamp in around him, and unless they are just keeping Gurley in reserve to avoid wearing him down, they may not be able to rediscover the explosive form they had last year.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)

I’m not sure what happened to Philadelphia’s defense. Yes, their secondary is vulnerable, but that’s been the case for years, and they’ve always found a way to make it work. They’ve had some injuries along the defensive front, but the whole point of this team is that they are loaded with depth that should give them the ability to get after the quarterback no matter what.

That hasn’t happened, and without an elite pass rush, every other piece of this team comes tumbling down. If they can’t manufacture short fields with their defense, their offense doesn’t have the explosiveness to run out ahead. If they can’t get early leads, their run defense lets opposing teams move easily down the field. Rediscovering that elite pass rush could turn them around, but with Dallas sitting at the top of the division and a competitive wild card race, the Eagles will have to find this magic switch fast.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)

There are reasonable excuses that can be made for Kansas City’s slightly below-expectations record. Obviously losing the defending MVP hurts, though only one of their defeats came with him out. There are a bunch of other injuries you can point to—Eric Fisher, Frank Clark, Tyreek Hill—and maybe once they get completely healthy they’ll jump to the top with the other elite teams.

But for now it’s worth asking some questions about their performance. Their pass defense has been stout despite some clear holes on the back end, but it is still far too easy to run straight at them. And even before Mahomes was sidelined this offense wasn’t clicking with the same electric energy it had last season. It might not take much to get them back to that point, but unless their offense is firing on all cylinders they don’t have a team well rounded enough to compete for a title.

The Also Rans

These teams have strong records, and they may even make it to the postseason. But that doesn't mean they're actually good at football.

Buffalo Bills (7-2)

Buffalo’s defense has looked legitimately excellent, though it’s hard to separate that from the quality of opposition they’ve faced. The only teams to reach 20 points against them this year are the Eagles and, somehow, the Dolphins. And yet they rank only 15^th in the league in DVOA, which punishes them for games against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, and Redskins. And yet the Patriots only managed 16 points against them, in one of the more impressive defensive performances of the season.

I don’t know if Buffalo’s defense is actually good, but it’s hard to say they’ll be exposed the rest of the year. They still have another game against both the Jets and the Dolphins, as well as matchups against the Browns, Broncos, and Steelers. This defense is not going to allow a lot of points the rest of the year, and that will give them a chance to ride their already strong record to a playoff spot, even if their offense remains nonthreatening.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

The Colts weathered the loss of Andrew Luck before the season and have ridden the quiet consistency of Jacoby Brissett to a comfortable lead in the wild card race. They’ve somehow done this without playing a game with a final margin larger than seven points, which suggests a lot of this is due to good fortune. But they’ve also had some bad luck as well, such as losing to Pittsburgh on a missed field goal by Adam Vinatieri.

They’re tied for the division lead with Houston, and they have the advantage having beaten the Texans earlier this year. But man do they not pass the eye test. Their defense hasn’t been as extraordinary as it was down the stretch a year ago, and their offense is toothless attacking down the field (TY Hilton has missed some time, but even on a per game basis he’s having the worst year of his career). This team does enough good things to make the playoffs in a weak AFC, but they are going to be overmatched against any real competition.

Caroline Panthers (5-3)

Cam Newton is officially done for the season, and now it’s up to Kyle Allen to lead this team to the playoffs. Theoretically he should be up to it, based on how the season has gone for him so far. He’s taken care of the ball, and he’s let the team ride on the shoulders of Christian McCaffrey and Luke Keuchly, getting them to the halfway point of the season with a winning record.

But that’s all he’s going to be able to do. Because this team has been for from impressive so far, and their schedule is about to be brutal. Over the final eight games they have to play the Packers, the Seahawks, and the Colts, plus both their games in the series against the Saints. I can’t see them winning more than one of those games, and that is going to leave them far short of a playoff spot.

I Screwed Up

I put this list together earlier this week, before the Thursday night game. But that’s no excuse for making the same mistake I always do, which is trusting the Chargers. This team should have been in the first half of my preview, and the Raiders probably should have replaced them up here, even before Oakland walked away on Thursday night with a victory over their division foes.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

I don’t know what to say about this team anymore. How many times can you be bitten by a snake before people start asking what the hell is wrong with you? On paper this team should be up there with the best in the league, and they should be ready to turn it on with star safety Derwin James likely to make his return in a couple weeks. Instead they have floundered their way to multiple embarrassing and perplexing losses, and now they’re probably too far out of the hunt to have any shot of making the postseason.

Maybe the issue is coaching. Maybe the issue is Philip Rivers. Maybe the problem is their run defense. All of these pieces have faltered when they’ve needed them, but more than anything else I have to put the blame on the offensive line. For years now it has been a disaster, and somehow it might be even worse this year. On Thursday night they wilted like a few spindly blades of grass in front of their quarterback, and not against a particularly intimidating pass rush either. And in doing so they cost the Chargers whatever faint hopes they still had for this season, as they have cost them the entire last half of the Rivers era.