Week One Bullshit Index

Week One is in the books, and it’s only increased my appetite for the sixteen regular season weeks still to come. We saw some great games (Saints-Texans), some ugly games (Packers-Bears), some massacres (Ravens-Dolphins), and some things that really can’t be categorized (Lions-Cardinals).

After months breaking down these rosters as they stacked up on paper, we finally have some game action to look at. But of course, we can’t just throw out everything we thought before this weekend. Some of the things we saw is evidence of trends that will continue deep into the season. Others are just momentary flashes that we’ll have completely forgotten by the time that teams that looked so promising in the opening week are floundering their way to a 6-10 finish.

In the past I’ve broken down these opening weekend trends by giving them a score from 1-10 based on how likely I think they are to stick around. But I’ve since realized that this it he coward’s way out. So this year I’m only splitting things into two categories: Real or Bullshit.

I don’t think I have to explain what each means.

Mitchell Trubisky is going to sink the Bears

On one half of the field, the Bears did everything they could have hoped for in their opening game. They harassed Aaron Rodgers nonstop, and they held the Packers to only 10 points in their first game under new head coach Matt LeFlour. Hell, we can even throw special teams in there, as they made it through a game without missing a kick.

Unfortunately, they didn’t really get many chances to send their new kicker out there, thanks to the putrid offensive performance led by Trubisky. He made real progress from his first to his second year, but if he has a similar step ahead of him in year three, it didn’t show up on Thursday. And he could very easily turn it around next week, and then come out and fall to pieces in week three again. That’s the kind of quarterback he’s been. Last year it worked out because their defense consistently generated turnovers and points off those turnovers, in a way we can’t expect to repeat this season. The first game was a sign of what happens if Trubisky is off and their defense is merely great rather than transcendent.

Verdict: Real

The Ravens have their offense figured out

We know the deal with the Dolphins. Their roster is garbage, and they aren’t trying to win. That said, what Baltimore did to them was completely unexpected. After a season where they made the playoffs powered by their defense and an extremely run heavy offense, they came out on Sunday and showed that not only can they win by throwing the ball, they can light up the scoreboard.

Their philosophy this offseason was to add as much speed as possible to their offense, and it showed up against Miami. The biggest contributor was first round pick Marquise Brown, who produced two huge touchdowns in limited action. As the Dolphins packed the front to try to slow down the rushing game, Lamar Jackson lit them up over the top.

Not every team is as inept as Miami, and defenses will find new ways to counteract their offensive evolution. But there are limitations to what they can do. With Jackson as a threat to tear defenses apart with his legs, teams have to bring an extra man into the box or risk being outmanned. But if they bring that guy into the box, that leaves them vulnerable over the top. The Ravens can prosper with this style long term, chewing teams apart with small chunks in the running game and then exploding a couple times each game over the top.

Verdict: Real

The Vikings have fixed their offense

Minnesota disappointed last year largely due to the failure of their offense. Offensive Coordinator John DeFilippo didn’t make it to the end of the year, as Mike Zimmer was frustrated by their inability to establish any sort of running game. And this offseason they basically threw everything they had at building that part of their offense. They brought in Gary Kubiak as a consultant to develop their zone rushing attack, and they spent their first four draft picks on that phase of the game (counting Irv Smith, a versatile blocker that allows them to play more multiple tight end sets).

And in the first game, it paid off big time. The Vikings put up 172 yards on the ground, and they only attempted ten passes the entire game, as they got off to an early lead and were able to coast the rest of the way. Kirk Cousins looked perfectly proficient throwing the ball, but he really didn’t have to, as they were able to pick up first downs with repeated handoffs to Dalvin Cook.

That said, I’m not convinced that this is the sort of thing that will recur. Their offensive line looked dominant on some plays when they were able to seal the outside edge, but they were beaten badly on others, usually by Grady Jarrett coming up the middle. Even when Cousins completed passes, he was under a lot of pressure. There are still problems with this line, and they will flare up down the road, in games where the Vikings aren’t fortunate with takeaways and a blocked punt to get out to an early lead.

Verdict: Bullshit

Cleveland doesn’t have it figured out yet

Expectations were high for Cleveland coming into this season, as high as they have been since the team came back in 1999. And yet, for the fifteenth year in a row, the Browns started the year off with a loss, an embarrassing 30 point thrashing at the hands of the Titans. It won’t always be that bad going forward—they had an absurd 18 penalties, and even though all three of Baker Mayfield’s interceptions were definitely his fault, he isn’t going to make that many mistakes in games going forward.

At the same time, this game has to kill most of the optimism around this team this season. The hype for them was out of control, and we had to know there would be some bumps like this along the road. They have a first time head coach, and a brand new defensive scheme. They did a good job adding veteran talent, but they are still relying on young players at a lot of positions. And their offensive line was an even bigger disaster than we expected on Sunday, making Mayfield look frantic and uncomfortable pretty much from start to finish. They aren’t the same old Cleveland Browns, but they’re closer to that than to the Super Bowl contenders some people seemed to think they were, and they showed it in their opening game.

Verdict: Real

Patrick Mahomes is not going to regress

Mahomes had the greatest debut season in NFL history. He threw for 5097 yards and 50 touchdowns en route to winning MVP. And the only question for 2019 was what he could possibly do for an encore. Some regression seemed inevitable. Quarterbacks who have thrown for over five thousand yards in the past followed it up with an average of 4741 yards, and quarterbacks with 45 or more touchdowns averaged only 34.5 the next year. Simple history suggested that while Mahomes might be great again this year, he won’t be as great as he was a year ago.

And after his first game he’s on pace for…6048 yards and 48 touchdowns. So yeah, not really. And it didn’t come against some Miami level defense either. It came against Jacksonville, with arguably the best cornerback duo in the league. And with Tyreek Hill missing a big chunk of the game. At this point, I don’t think I can bet against Mahomes any longer. Putting up back to back 50 TD seasons is pretty much impossible, but Mahomes has made a habit of doing the impossible.

Verdict: Real

Gardner Minshew is the savior in Jacksonville

I don’t know if anyone really expected Nick Foles to turn things around when he signed in Jacksonville, but he was expected to at least be an upgrade over Blake Bortles. And he was, right up until he suffered a fractured clavicle that will keep him out until at least November. And it seemed like the Jaguars were in for another season of dreadful quarterback performance.

Then rookie Gardner Minshew came in, and he was pretty damn good. Obviously he couldn’t actually bring them back against Kansas City, but his numbers certainly raised a few eyebrows. He completed 22 of 25 passes for 275 yards, showing the ability both to get the ball out of his hands quick and on target and to hit big shots down the field.

It seems a little ridiculous that a sixth round rookie could be a major difference maker, and my title above was a bit tongue in cheek. But for those who don’t know anything about Minshew, let me tell you that you shouldn’t count him out on anything. His college career was a journey, starting at Northwest Mississippi Community College, then to East Carolina, and ending at Washington State as a grad-transfer (his other option was to be a backup at Alabama, with the intention of transitioning from there into coaching). Instead he earned the starting job under Mike Leach and turned that into a fifth place Heisman finish. He’s an old fashioned gun-slinger in both style and look, and even if he doesn’t succeed as an NFL quarterback, he’s certainly a fun story to tell.

Verdict: Bullshit, but fun bullshit

The Steelers are lost without Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown

Okay, let’s address the first part of this: Bell should not be included in this discussion. He didn’t play a single snap for the Steelers all of last year, and their offense was just fine without him. The only real loss that Pittsburgh suffered was Brown, and that appeared to be a major issue on Sunday.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has been tremendously productive over the past two years, but for the first time in his career he is the primary receiving threat on an offense, and against New England he struggled to fill that role. He finished with six receptions for 76 yards—not a bad day statistically, though a good chunk of that came after the game was out of reach. More troubling were Pittsburgh’s other receivers. Donte Moncrief led the team in targets but struggled to catch the ball, while Vance McDonald and James Washington combined for four receptions. Pittsburgh’s passing attack looked completely toothless, and their offense only managed a single sad field goal.

It's reasonable to be concerned, but I’m not writing this offense off just yet. Smith-Schuster has been productive when Brown was out in the past, and they will have much easier matchups ahead of them than they had against the Patriots. They still need to find alternative options at wide receiver, as by now it should be clear that Moncrief can’t cut it in the NFL. But they have some young options at wide receiver, and they can develop as the year goes along to give the Steelers at least some semblance of the passing attack they had when Brown was around.

Verdict: Bullshit

The Patriots are going to be unstoppable once they add Brown to their offense

(I wrote this before the rape lawsuit surfaced against Brown on Tuesday. I don’t know if this will affect his long term availability, but if he does join the team, the analysis below remains the same.)

On the other side, Brown’s new team cut through his old one like they didn’t have a defense out there. Tom Brady was barely bothered all night as he distributed the ball across the field, hitting deep shots to Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett to go along with his normal brutal efficiency underneath. Add in the league’s best route runner who presents matchup problems at every level of the defense, and what can opposing defenses hope to do to stop the Patriots?

There may be some mitigating arguments. Pittsburgh is notoriously bad against New England, especially with their current defensive coordinator who seems to have a fascination with asking linebackers to cover receivers in the slot. And the Patriots are always extra difficult when Bill Belichick is given extra time to prepare. Plus, we have no idea how Brown in New England will work out. Maybe his improvisational style won’t mesh with the demanding and precise Brady, a quarterback who hasn’t always had the best relationships with his star receivers.

But if it does work, then yeah, it isn’t a good thing for the rest of the league. Before this addition the book on the Patriots was that they were the clear favorites in the AFC, but that there might be teams in the NFC who could handle them thanks to the weakness of their offensive weapons. Since then they went out and added one of the top ten receivers of all time, and it’s hard not to call them the clear favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champs.

Verdict: Real