We Don't Practice Fucked

We’re only two weeks into the NFL season, and already the biggest story of the year is injuries. Specifically injuries to quarterbacks, as several of the biggest names in the sport have gone down for varying periods of time.

It started even before the season, when injuries convinced Andrew Luck to retire rather than fighting through another rehab cycle, and it continued in Week 1 with Jacksonville’s big money addition Nick Foles suffering a broken clavicle. And it only got work this past week, as a pair of future Hall of Famers in Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger were lost with thumb and elbow injuries respectively. The Jets are actually down a pair, with Trevor Siemian out for the season with an ankle injury he suffered filling in for Sam Darnold after he contracted the plague. And now it sounds like Cam Newton will be out for some length of time after stressing a foot sprain last Thursday.

That is a lot of big names to go down for any position, but it is even more meaningful at quarterback. Some years ago Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore was asked why Peyton Manning was getting all the reps in practice, to which he responded, “If 18 goes down, we’re fucked, and we don’t practice fucked.”

If you’re starting quarterback goes down, your season is basically over. Or that was the logic, until two years ago Foles came off the bench and won a Super Bowl for the Eagles. Now, we have to accept that things are a little less black and white than that.

Below I’ve ranked teams based on just how fucked they would be if their quarterback went down. This is a bit more involved than just a ranking of backup quarterbacks. It also takes into consideration how good the starter is, to measure how much is lost by a quarterback going down. And it looks at situation, particularly the team’s expectations and how this affects the goals of the season. Losing three wins is always bad, but it is much worse to drop from 11 wins to 8 wins than it is to fall from 5 to 2.

And yes, this is subjective as hell. So if you want to argue, feel free to contact me on any platform you can find.

Waiting in the Wings

“Fucked” might not be the best word for these teams. They clearly don’t have anything good at quarterback, but they have potential on the bench, waiting to take over.

New York Giants

Starter: Eli Manning

Backup: Daniel Jones

Okay, this first one is kind of cheating. Jones has already been promoted to starter, after Manning was dreadful enough through two games to finally bring his era to an end. But for now I’m still going to treat Manning as the starter, mostly to fit the Giants in with the next two teams. We all knew Manning was cooked before the year, and they gained nothing by sticking Jones on the bench. I’m not a believer that a quarterback can be “damaged” by playing too early, and I think they're making the right decision tossing Jones out there now to swim or sink as his talent dictates.

Washington Redskins

Starter: Case Keenum

Backup: Dwayne Haskins

Keenum has been fine the first two weeks of the season, which has allowed him to hold off calls for Haskins so far. But the Redskins sit at 0-2, and eventually fine won’t be enough to keep their first round pick on the sideline. Haskins is a lot more talented and more ready than Jones, and I expect him to have a good deal more success when he makes it onto the field.

Denver Broncos

Starter: Joe Flacco

Backup: Drew Lock

I’m not sure what the Broncos expected when they added Flacco, but they are certainly getting the Flacco experience. Through two games their offense is anemic, and the quarterback who was supposed to game-manage their strong defense to the playoffs hasn’t even been able to do that. The only thing keeping him on the field is the fact that Lock was a second round pick and really isn’t that good, probably not the real future of this franchise.

It Doesn’t Matter

These teams will make a quarterback change at some point this year. Not due to injury, just desperation. Most people won’t even notice.

Miami Dolphins

Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Backup: Josh Rosen

In theory this could have gone in the group above. But the Dolphins clearly don’t see Rosen as their future, and even if he does have that potential, he’s not going to show it on a team that has been stripped for parts. Neither quarterback has a prayer of succeeding in Miami. Both will get their chance to be beaten into a bloody pulp before the season’s end.

Tennessee Titans

Starter: Marcus Mariota

Backup: Ryan Tannehill

The Titans are an irrelevant franchise, and if Mariota gets hurt I’m not sure anyone will even notice. Stylistically he and Tannehill don’t have that much in common, but they both exist in the hazy middle territory of “good enough you can’t bench them, not good enough for you to win with them”. The way they reach their ultimate 8-8 record may be different with Tannehill under center, but the end result would be the same.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Starter: Jameis Winston

Backup: Blaine Gabbert

Winston is still maddening, because it always looks like there is something there, right up until he throws the ball to the wrong team. At this point I think we’re probably past the point of hoping he’ll change, and we should prepare to see a Fitzpatrick-like career of bouncing around the league and flashing just long enough to give each new team hope before he returns to his normal erratic ways. Behind him sits Mariota’s backup from a year ago, a former top ten pick who has joined the shuffling chair game of bland backup quarterbacks drifting across the league.

Oakland Raiders

Starter: Derek Carr

Backup: Mike Glennon

Carr has been blessed his entire career with an excellent offensive line and a solid receiving corps. Glennon has not been able to say the same, as he’s bounced from Tampa Bay to Chicago to Arizona. He would cry tears of joy if he was able to start on this Raiders team, even though their supporting cast is a far cry from what it was two or three years ago.

Chicago Bears

Starter: Mitchell Trubisky

Backup: Chase Daniel

It has not been a pleasant start of the year for Trubisky, and already people in Chicago are on the verge of panic, wondering if they will once again watch an elite defense go absolutely nowhere thanks to mediocrity at the quarterback position. Trubisky still offers some upside, which is the only justification for continuing to play him over Daniel, a solid veteran with little on-field experience but who would provide some stabilizing presence for a team that needs only bare mediocrity from their offense to have a chance in every game.

Indianapolis Colts

Starter: Jacoby Brissett

Backup: Brian Hoyer

The Colts were devastated to lose Luck, but they’ve bounced back by becoming the league’s premier destination for former Patriots backups. If they lose one of these two options, they can always go out and sign Matt Cassel or Ryan Mallett, neither of whom has anything better to do at this moment.

Never Going Anywhere Anyway

These teams would suffer a drop in performance if their quarterback went down. But a drop in performance for a mediocre team just turns them into a bad team, and that doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Starter: Nick Foles

Backup: Gardner Minshew

We’ve already seen what has come of this one, as Minshew has come in and played mostly okay in Foles’s absence. Of course, okay still has the Jaguars at 0-2, likely where they would be even with their big money starter. On paper this looks like a big gap—a hot free agent signing versus a sixth round rookie—but as we’ve come to see Minshew is better than people realize, and Foles is not nearly what he flashed at moments in Philadelphia.

New York Jets

Starter: Sam Darnold

Backup: Trevor Siemian/Luke Falk

Another one we’ve seen in action, for a team now down to their third option. Falk is less proven than Siemian and therefore more exciting, but he’ll quickly join the ranks of “nice to have around, as long as he never sees the field” quarterbacks around the league (see farther down the list). Of course, Darnold hasn’t showed very much special to this point in his career, and besides a few spark plays provided by his athleticism and arm strength, I’m not sure there’s that much to separate him from the less notable names down the depth chart.

Cincinnati Bengals

Starter: Andy Dalton

Backup: Ryan Finley

Finley isn’t good, but Dalton isn’t either. Which makes them a perfect fit for the rest of the talent in Cincinnati.

San Francisco 49ers

Starter: Jimmy Garoppolo

Backup: Nick Mullens

Garoppolo has been good this year, and the 49ers are 2-0. Of course those wins came over Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, but they were convincing enough to convince some people that Garoppolo is finally living up to years of hype. I’m going to have to see a little more, especially after Mullens put up not-bad numbers a year ago in this same offense. Kyle Shanahan remains one of the best play-designers in the league, and I don’t think this team would really miss a beat if they had to go to the backup again.

Detroit Lions

Starter: Matthew Stafford

Backup: David Blough

This is a grim dropoff on the depth chart. Fortunately, the Lions shouldn’t be concerned. After some injury concerns early in his career, Stafford has been one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the league for some time, at least when it comes to showing up healthy for the games. The actual quality of his play is another story, but with the Lions locked into his contract for another three seasons, they’ll have plenty of time to enjoy the fruits of Stafford’s inadequacy.

What the Hell Are These Teams?

Some quarterbacks are so ingrained in their offensive systems that it’s hard to know what the team would look like without them. In a vacuum the backups might not actually be that much worse than the starters, but removing the centerpiece of this offense could irreparably break the way they want to play the game.

Arizona Cardinals

Starter: Kyler Murray

Backup: Brett Hundley

We’re still getting a handle on just what Arizona’s offense will be. They’ve certainly moved the ball the first two games, with Murray contributing big plays both on the ground and in the air. And maybe Hundley, who is similarly mobile and accustomed to a quick passing attack, would be able to fill in. But everything Arizona is doing is built around the quarterback selected in the first round—imagine if they had tried that a year ago with Rosen—and even two games in it’s hard to imagine this offense with anyone other than Murray under center.

Buffalo Bills

Starter: Josh Allen

Backup: Matt Barkley

Allen was up and down his rookie year, but he’s off to a solid start in 2019. He still misses some throws, and he still makes some awful mistakes with turnovers, but his ability to stretch defenses down the field with his arm strength has helped Buffalo run out to a 2-0 record. Barkley brings none of the positives with all of the negatives, and an offense built around speed on the outside would suddenly have a lot less space to work with if anyone other than Allen was under center.

Baltimore Ravens

Starter: Lamar Jackson

Backup: Robert Griffin III

Baltimore’s offense is like no one else’s in the league, and we really haven’t seen everything they have in store yet. Jackson has been lights out attacking vertically over the first two weeks, but a large part of that has been because teams are still terrified of what he is capable of on the ground. If there’s a quarterback in the league who can slide into the same sort of system, it’s Griffin, but his mobility hasn’t been the same since the injuries he suffered in his Washington days, and even then he was never as dynamic on the ground as Jackson. Losing their starting quarterback would force the Ravens to adopt a more traditional scheme, which would be devastating for a team that needs this edge to make up for their lack of offensive talent.

Cleveland Browns

Starter: Baker Mayfield

Backup: Garrett Gilbert

Things have been a bit rocky for Cleveland’s offense over their first two games. On the one hand, Mayfield has looked downright bad at times, making crucial mistakes and missing open opportunities down the field. But a large part of their struggles have been schematic as well, and they’ve counted on Mayfield to bail them out with his improvisational skills and aggressive accuracy down the field.

Carolina Panthers

Starter: Cam Newton

Backup: Kyle Allen

I guess we’ll get a chance to see how this goes starting this weekend. A healthy Newton is really a one of a kind player, with the ability to pound defenses on the ground to go along with a cannon of an arm that fires balls into windows other offenses could only dream of hitting. But Newton hasn’t been healthy for a while, and he is so reliant on his physical tools to succeed that a few nicks are far more devastating to him than most other quarterbacks.

The Value of Basic Competence

The ranking of these teams says more about their backups than it does about their starters.

Minnesota Vikings

Starter: Kirk Cousins

Backup: Sean Mannion

Cousins was atrocious on Sunday and more or less single-handedly cost the Vikings the game against Green Bay. With one of the most loaded rosters in the league, they really just need him to complete about half of his passes and not throw monumentally stupid interceptions in the red zone. And he can do that! Sometimes. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about Mannion, who was named the backup despite being thoroughly outplayed by Kyle Sloter during the preseason, largely because Mike Zimmer values the backup quarterback more for what he does off the field than what he could theoretically do on it.

Los Angeles Rams

Starter: Jared Goff

Backup: Blake Bortles

Goff is pretty good, and at times he flashes spectacular. But Sean McVay’s scheme still does a lot of the heavy lifting, and it’s reasonable to wonder what a lesser quarterback could do in that system. As long as they make basic reads, throw accurate passes, and avoid crippling mistakes, everything will go fine. Unfortunately, despite all the experience Bortles has, none of those things were really ever strengths of his.

Dallas Cowboys

Starter: Dak Prescott

Backup: Cooper Rush

I don’t know who Cooper Rush is. I just know that no one wants to see him play quarterback for the Cowboys. Prescott has turned it on early in the season, raising hopes that the Cowboys can make a deeper playoff run this year. But they made the Divisional Round a year ago with total blandness from their offense, and if they had a more experienced backup, I think they would be fine even if Prescott did go down.

Keeping their Head Above Water

These teams have Super Bowl aspirations. Those will go away if they lose their starter long term, but they have a good option on the bench, someone who can fill in for a few games to keep them from bottoming out.

Los Angeles Chargers

Starter: Philip Rivers

Backup: Tyrod Taylor

The Chargers have always done a pretty decent job of finding solid backup quarterbacks, going back to the days of Billy Volek and Charlie Whitehurst. They’ve done it again with Taylor, an experienced starter who led a team to the playoffs just two years ago and could very easily do so again if given the chance with the Chargers roster. Any sort of playoff run is too much to ask of him, but if Rivers has to miss three or four games down the stretch of the regular season, the Chargers will likely be mostly fine.

New Orleans Saints

Starter: Drew Brees

Backup: Teddy Bridgewater

I’m not going to pretend to be impartial here. I love Bridgewater, I think he deserves a chance to be a starter, and I want nothing more than for him to prosper during Brees’s absence. That said, he has looked a little shaky during his limited time on the field since his injury, and he certainly is not Brees. But he has the most upside of any backup in the league, and with a talented cast in New Orleans they can certainly win with him under center.

Seattle Seahawks

Starter: Russell Wilson

Backup: Geno Smith

Smith is no Bridgewater, but as far as backups go he is a pretty damn good option. He has a lot of starting experience, and Seattle’s offense is built in a way that they can easily lighten the load on the quarterback. Wilson makes a lot of spectacular plays outside of structure, but they don’t ask that much of him within the normal flow of things. They would lose a lot of explosiveness with Smith, but they would still be functional on offense.

He’s Still in the League?

Some backup quarterbacks are kept around more as additional coaches than genuine options. No one wants them to see the field. Not us, and certainly not them.

Houston Texans

Starter: Deshaun Watson

Backup: AJ McCarron

Watson plays with an aggressive style behind a terrible offensive line, and I would honestly be shocked if he made it through the entire season without suffering an injury for a second year in a row. I have a feeling that sooner or later we will see McCarron, hopefully just in spot duty but quite possibly for a longer duration.

Philadelphia Eagles

Starter: Carson Wentz

Backup: Josh McCown

An injury to Nate Sudfeld during the preseason forced the Eagles to pull McCown out of retirement, making this the ninth team in his long journey through the NFL. He even briefly made an appearance in a game this past Sunday, which came as a shock to most viewers and I’m sure wasn’t a particularly pleasant moment for him. He’s 40 years old, he has a knack for making coaches fall in love with him, and I’m sure he provides value in meeting rooms during the week. But no one wants to watch him play football.

Atlanta Falcons

Starter: Matt Ryan

Backup: Matt Schaub

Schaub is still in the league! It’s true! Sneaking someone like him into this post is exactly the kind of joke I would pull, but I am not making this up. This is his fourth year in Atlanta, and his sixth year since the last time he was a regular starter for Houston (he did start two games for Baltimore in 2015, but I’d wager not even the most die-hard Ravens fan remembers that). Outside of those two games he’s thrown 20 passes since 2013. If he can avoid expanding on that number this year, then everyone will be happy.

Kansas City Chiefs

Starter: Pat Mahomes

Backup: Matt Moore

This is actually kind of a weird one to break down. On the one hand, Andy Reid is the most brilliant offensive mind in the league, and I firmly believe he can make any quarterback at least league average, even someone who wasn’t in the league last year. On the other hand, Mahomes is genuinely one of a kind, and the impact he has on this offense couldn’t even be replicated by any of the other 31 starters. In this case, I’ll lean towards the talent on the field over that on the sidelines and say that losing their starting quarterback would be devastating to Kansas City’s season, though not as much as these last three teams.

Fucked

These teams came into the year with Super Bowl hopes. If they lose their quarterback, they probably aren’t even playoff contenders.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Starter: Ben Roethlisberger

Backup: Mason Rudolph

We start in Pittsburgh, where the worst case scenario has been realized. They are 0-2, Roethlisberger is done for the season, and they just traded away their first round pick, so they can’t even hope to bottom out. Rudolph has some potential, but he was shaky in his first appearance last week. Any hopes of making the playoffs for this team are likely gone, and the window provided by the aging Roethlisberger is very nearly shut.

New England Patriots

Starter: Tom Brady

Backup: Jarrett Stidham

The Patriots reportedly really like Stidham, and he impressed during training camp and the preseason. But a year ago he was floundering to a disappointing finish at Auburn, and for a team that is Super Bowl favorites, nothing could be more devastating than losing their future Hall of Fame quarterback. I’m sure that in a couple years they’ll find a way to trade Stidham for way more than he’s worth, but right now this spot may be the most glaring weakness on their roster, a lack of depth at the most important position that could end their season.

Green Bay Packers

Starter: Aaron Rodgers

Backup: Tim Boyle

In five years of college football across two different schools, Boyle completed 56% of his passes at 5.6 yards per attempt and threw 12 touchdowns against 26 interceptions.