2017 NFL Draft Preview: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

It’s that time of year again. We are now exactly one month away from the NFL Draft, the most exciting non-sport sporting event of the year. And over the coming weeks I’ll be breaking down some of the top prospects in this year’s class, hopefully knocking out two position groups a week until it’s time for the draft.

We’ll start today with the wide receivers and tight ends. I selected nine players between these two positions to look at, based largely on projections I’ve seen of who is supposed to go in the first round. My hope is to have broken down every player selected in the top 32, and while I will inevitably fail to reach that goal, I feel I’ll cover most of them. If there’s a player here you don’t see, it’s probably because they suck and have no hope of making it in the NFL. Or I just didn’t have a chance to look at them, what with having a full time job and a social life (okay, kidding about that last part).

As always, thanks to DraftBreakdown for providing excellent video cutups of the players, and to Mockdraftable for their wonderful visualizations of combine results. And now, ranked from best to worst, here are the nine wide receivers and tight ends I looked at for this year’s draft.

OJ Howard, TE Alabama

Howard has everything you could ask for from a tight end. Though he wasn’t given a ton to do as a receiver in college, he made the most of his few opportunities, consistently winning down the field and generating big plays for his offense. He’s a quality route runner with fantastic hands, and he has the ability to make difficult catches over the middle of the field. But as good as he is as a receiver, he might be even better as a blocker­. He uses his quickness to win leverage on defenders, sealing them away from the play and giving the ball carrier a lane to run through. He’s at his best playing in space on the second level, where he is matched up with linebackers and safeties who can’t compete with his size and athleticism.

Physically Howard is pretty much the platonic ideal of a tight end. He is 6-6 and weighs 251 pounds, and he is an athletic freak for any size. At the combine he performed better than the 85^th percentile among tight ends in the 40 yard dash, broad jump, 3 cone drill, 20 yard shuttle, and 60 yard shuttle. The speed, explosiveness, and agility that he brings to the table is rare to find, and it suggests he could produce even more at the next level.

Howard has a broad range of skills, but where he falters is in his depth in any specific aspect of the game. He’s a fantastic blocker, but he’s vulnerable to being overwhelmed by stronger defenders at the point of attack. He’s a contributor in the passing game, but he’s not going to fool anyone into thinking he’s a wide receiver. In essence, he’s a tight end, and he subject to the same questions about value that the position faces. This is why I struggle to see him as a top ten pick. I don’t think it would be ridiculous if he ended up being taken there, but I’m not sure he excels at enough to convince me he’s worth that investment.

Corey Davis, WR Central Michigan

 

This isn’t what you’d expect from a player coming from a midmajor school, but Davis is clearly the most polished receiver I studied this year. He does so many little things well, from his blocking to his ability to beat press coverage, but most significantly in his route running. He sells every fake with his entire body, and he has a looseness to his hips that allows him to swing himself around in ways that most receivers of his size simply can’t.

Davis’s technique is excellent, and he also happens to be one of the more physically gifted receivers in the class. He has good size at 6-3, and though he hasn’t been able to work out due to injuries, it doesn’t look like speed is an issue on the field. He’s not a great leaper in jump ball situations, but he regularly yanks away balls that defenders probably should have pulled in themselves.

There are things I could nitpick about Davis, but nothing clearly emerges as a potentially fatal flaw. As good a route runner as he is, he could still use refinement in some areas, particularly giving himself room to work on the sideline and handling contact over the middle of the field. He doesn’t do much after the catch, and he suffers occasional concentration drops. But he is still a safe pick with good upside, worth snagging in the middle of the first round.

John Ross, WR Washington

If you weren’t already aware of Ross, you certainly heard about him when he set a record by running a 4.22 forty at the combine. Speed is certainly the primary trait you see when you watch him play. He regularly blows past cornerbacks down the field, so fast that his quarterback struggled to get the ball far enough to reach him. He explodes off the line, and he only picks up speed on the second level. No cornerback can run with him, which forces defenses to play off of him, opening up a lot of space to work underneath.

Speed is Ross’s defining skill, but it isn’t all that he has to work with. He is just as quick when it comes to changing directions as he is running in a straight line, and he puts this to use both as a route runner and with the ball in his hands. He can sell fakes farther than almost any receiver, knowing he can stop, turn, and reach his mark faster than anyone else. He isn’t an advanced route runner, but he shows good instincts to develop in that area, as he will occasionally alter the angles of his routes to open holes in the secondary. And he is capable of some truly special things after the catch, which will make him a nightmare if his team decides to use him returning punts or kickoffs.

Ross is small, and he has all the downsides that come with small receivers. He isn’t much of a threat in the red zone, though he can occasionally create good separation with a jab step before breaking to a fade route in the corner. He gets knocked off his route easily by physical coverage, but he is quick enough that very few defenders can get their hands on him. This might be different in the NFL, and he certainly has work to do to become more polished as a receiver who can win with more than just physical ability. He isn’t a sure thing, but of the receivers in the class he is probably the only one with the potential to turn into a true superstar at the next level.

David Njoku, TE Miami

When breaking down OJ Howard above, I described him as a player without any real weaknesses but without clear points of dominance either. The second best tight end in the class is the exact opposite story. Njoku has glaring holes in his game—most significantly major lapses as a blocker and some drop issues—but where he excels he is as dominant as any tight end currently in the league.

Njoku is at his best as a receiver. He is capable of making incredibly precise and sharp cuts on his routes (though there is plenty of inconsistency here as well), and despite his drop issues he can make difficult catches outside the frame of his body. He is a jump ball threat in the endzone, and he does a good job shielding defenders with his body to make contested catches. But the area he really excels in is what he can do with the ball in his hands. His size and speed make him almost impossible to bring down in the open field, and of the nine players I looked at here he is probably second only to Curtis Samuel after the catch (and Samuel may be more of a running back than a receiver, but I’ll get to him).

Every year we see a few players like Njoku, and every year they terrify me. He certainly has star ability, and even his weak points are things he shows potential to become above average at. But he also brings a lot of risk, and I wouldn’t be stunned if he failed to ever become a reliable starter. The reward is great here, but the risk might be even greater, which is why I had to knock him down into the latter portion of the first round.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR USC

There are a number of glaring flaws in Smith-Schuster’s game. The most glaring is his lack of speed. It shows up on the field and was confirmed by his forty yard dash time, a mediocre 4.54 that puts him in the lower half of all receiver prospects. He struggles to separate from coverage over the top, and he isn’t ever going to be a deep threat. This allows defenders to play him tight to the line with impunity, knowing he’s no threat to burn them deep.

This isn’t a fatal flaw by any means, but it certainly holds him back when put alongside his other weaknesses. He isn’t a great route runner, and at 6-1 he isn’t tall enough to be a truly dominant “big” receiver. He disappointed with a 32.5 inch vertical at the combine, and he struggled to win consistently in jump ball situations at the college level.

There are a lot of flaws with Smith-Schuster as a receiver prospect, and they will certainly hold him back at the next level. But he has plenty of strengths as well, and he should be a quality starter in the NFL. He’ll need time to add strength to compete with professional athletes, but he has the frame and the skills to push people around on tight passes over the middle of the field. He works well on the sideline, and he can go from full speed to a dead stop with precision that will make him incredibly useful when partnered with a quarterback who can hit him on the back shoulder with anticipation. And even though his top end speed isn’t great, he shows pretty good acceleration off the ball, which should mitigate some of the other concerns.

Smith-Schuster has a very limited ceiling. He won’t be a Pro Bowl receiver, and he probably tops out as a secondary threat in an offense. But as long as he can add to his already strong frame in an NFL training program, he shouldn’t flame out of the league either. He’s a safe prospect who will be able to produce consistently in a good environment, which is well worth a second round or maybe even a late first selection.

Zay Jones, WR East Carolina

When it comes to the draft it’s a common question to ask whether you’d prefer college production or athletic potential. Well what if I told you it was possible to have both? Jones set FBS records for both career receptions (399!) and single season receptions (158!), and he followed that up by dominating the combine, with arguably the best performance by any wide receiver in this year’s class. He has good size at 6-2, ran an excellent forty at 4.45, and performed better than average in every combine drill.

Jones is a versatile receiver, which is what you’d expect of someone who was able to produce so many catches. He can play both in the slot and on the edge, and he attacks with a varied route tree. He has a good sense for holes in the defense, and he’ll settle down when he finds himself uncovered. He is also capable of spectacular catches, leaping over defenders along the sideline and plucking the ball out of the air with a single hand.

Jones played at a lower level of competition than most of these other receivers, but he produced even when facing major conference teams. But there are still concerns about how he’ll fare facing NFL caliber talent on a play by play basis. His forty time makes him look faster than he is, and even with a quick burst off the ball he struggles to separate over the top. He can’t beat press coverage, and he often ends up forced towards the sideline where he leaves little room for his quarterback to put the ball. I don’t think these will be fatal flaws at the next level, but they raise enough cause for concern to slide him down to the second round.

Mike Williams, WR Clemson

You don’t need speed to be a successful receiver in the NFL. DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, and Alshon Jeffery are all top ten receivers when healthy, and they all lack top notch speed over the top. And Williams certainly looks like he could be in that mold. At 6-4 he towers above the other receivers in this class, and he dominated throughout his time at Clemson, capping it off with an overwhelming performance down the stretch in the championship game against Alabama.

Watching Williams play, it’s impossible not to see all the remarkable things he can do. He is a master of contested catches, ripping the ball out of the air with his strength almost indifferent to any defenders who might be around him. He reads the ball well as it’s travelling in the air, and he waits for the last second to reach out and snag it. He is at his best on back shoulder throws, where even if a defender can keep up with his sudden stops they usually can’t fight through his big body and strong hands to get to the football.

It’s hard not to be impressed by the things Williams can do. But then you start listing all the things he can’t do. He can’t win over the top, and defenders don’t bother to respect that. And unlike Smith-Schuster, he’s as slow off the ball as he is down the field. His wide frame makes him vulnerable to press coverage, and top NFL cornerbacks will be able to stop him before he can even get into his route. He doesn’t do a good job catching balls outside the frame of his body, and even with his imposing height his poor leaping ability makes him merely average at jump balls. He doesn’t bring anything besides occasional brute strength after the catch. Outside of the back shoulder throw and maybe slants, there isn’t any route he wins consistently.

Maybe it’s enough. Maybe Williams can continue to overpower people at the next level and turn into the ultimate possession receiver. The upside is there, and it might be worth a first round selection. But there’s also the possibility that he never makes it work in the NFL, and that his limitations will prevent him from contributing in any capacity to an offense.

Curtis Samuel, WR/RB Ohio State

It took me a while to decide where I wanted to put Samuel, and I’m still not completely sure about this. I ended up lumping him in with the wide receivers, because I believe the role he is best suited for in the NFL sees him catching the ball more than taking it as a handoff. But whatever his actual position designation ends up being, Samuel will present real problems in the NFL, both for the offense trying to use him and the defense trying to stop him.

Samuel’s pure athletic ability is unmatched in this year’s class. His speed and quickness made everyone around him on the college level look like they were playing with their feet stuck in mud, and this will transition to the next level. Samuel is elite in open space, making sharp cuts that cover an almost impossible amount of ground and then using instantaneous acceleration to tear downhill and leave defenses in his dust. He is sneakily strong as well, shrugging off tacklers who can’t get a clean hit on him.

The problem with Samuel is that he does almost none of the “little stuff” well. He struggles with drops and relies on his chest too much to bring the ball in. He doesn’t read his blocks well and ends up dancing a lot in the backfield. His quickness does occasionally transfer to his route running, and when it does there are few defensive backs who can keep up with him. But he shows no deeper understanding of how to get open, never altering his routes for situation or coverage.

Drafting Samuel is an acceptance of a three year project. The burden will be placed on the coaching staff to figure out what to do with him, and then to train him to serve in that role. Until then he really will only be able to contribute as a punt returner or in special offensive packages (potentially with the upside of Tyreek Hill). And if he can develop his game in a scheme built to utilize his strengths, he will become one of the most valuable offensive weapons in the league.

Cooper Kupp, WR Eastern Washington

 

The best receiver in FCS history has received quite a bit of buzz leading up to the draft. It’s quieted in recent weeks, but for a while there were suggestions that he could sneak up into the first round. That would be a major reach, for a player with a very defined role and ceiling at the next level.

Kupp will be a slot receiver in the NFL, and he’ll be a pretty good one at that. He’s bigger than most slot receivers, but there has been a trend towards larger bodies on the inside in recent years, and he’s arriving at the perfect time for his skillset. He isn’t particularly fast, but he has good quickness, which he uses well in attacking the underneath routes. He doesn’t threaten much down the field, but within five yards it is difficult to stick with his feints and sharp cuts.

Kupp has good hands, an instinctive understanding of coverages, and a very productive background. But the level of competition made him look better than he actually is, and he will struggle adjusting to NFL speed and strength. At best he’ll be a reliable second or third option in a passing attack the sort of player who comes up big a few times every year but never produces enough to be considered a legitimate threat.