Friday, March 31, 2017

2017 NFL Draft Preview: Cornerbacks



Earlier this week I brought you a breakdown of the wide receivers and tight ends at the top of this year's draft. And now it's on to the players who are going to be covering them. This year's cornerback class is deep and varied, with a wide range of skilled players, talented athletes, and rare prospects who combine the best of both worlds. Once again, the eight players below are ranked in the order in which I would select them, starting from the best and working down the list.

Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State
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Lattimore is one of the premier athletic talents in the draft, and athletic ability alone is enough to make him a high first round pick. He ran a 4.36 forty at a height of six feet, combining the best of both worlds in a league that usually trades off length for speed. This athleticism translates to the field of play, where his speed allows him to keep up with any receiver running down the field and his quickness prevents him from being burned on double moves.

For an athlete like Lattimore it sometimes becomes difficult to separate his pure ability from technique. Is he always under perfect balance and control because he’s playing the right way, or is it just because he’s capable of making movements other players simply can’t? And an equally pressing question is, does it really matter?

Lattimore isn’t a refined cornerback by any means, but his athleticism gives him a much greater margin for error than a normal player. If he gets fooled by a double move, he can swing his hips around without losing balance and run down the receiver before he can get away. If he gets beaten deep or across his face, he has the recovery speed to close down the window before the quarterback can hit it. His impressive ball skills let him turn bad plays into great ones, and he’ll only become more dangerous with more repetitions. He isn’t a finished product by any means, but he’s good enough that he can contribute right away, and down the road he could potentially develop into one of the best coverage guys in the league.

Gareon Conley, Ohio State
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Conley is another premier athlete, but he’s not on the same level of his teammate Lattimore. In terms of pure speed he can match up, and he isn’t likely to be beaten deep or outrun on a crossing route. He actually does a good job sticking with receivers on quick breaks as well, but he never looks as smooth doing it as Lattimore does. He always seems to play a little off balance, and periodically it comes back to bite him. He is beaten across his face too easily, and when he bails on a deep route he is rarely able to stop and come back to prevent an underneath throw.

Conley is still an excellent cornerback though, well worth a top twenty selection. He has the best ball skills of any cornerback in the class, consistently locating the ball and going up to attack it at the highest point. He needs to get stronger at the point of the catch, but if he can he’s the sort of cornerback who could rank among the league leaders in interceptions on a regular basis.

Conley will give up some plays. He probably won’t be beaten deep frequently, and he isn’t going to kill your defense. But he doesn’t stack receivers up physically very well, and he’ll be exposed by quicker players who can cut and stop on a dime. The athleticism is there though, and with more repetition he’ll learn how to use his raw ability to cover up these occasional lapses.

Marlon Humphrey, Alabama
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If you enjoy physical play from your cornerbacks, Humphrey is probably going to be your favorite player in the draft. He is as physical as they come, both when challenging receivers in their routes and when coming up to support against the run. He can wall off larger receivers at the snap to prevent them from ever getting started down the field, and he does so without drawing flags. Unlike many physical cornerbacks he will have no problem transitioning this part of his game to the tighter rules of the NFL. He will continue to fight receivers within the rulebook, and he will remain a terror around the line of scrimmage. Throwing a screen pass to his side is simply a dumb idea, as he will blow through any blockers standing in his path on his way to bringing down the receiver behind the line of scrimmage.

Humphrey’s physicality is a legitimate weapon, but it can’t cover up all his flaws. He is most comfortable in a zone scheme, and he faces clear struggles when forced to track receivers man to man. He gets shaken by double moves too easily, and although he tested well at the combine, he doesn’t show the same burst that can save a player like Lattimore. He does a good job avoiding being beaten over the top, but receivers can do a lot of damage against him underneath. His ball skills are lacking, and he gives receivers too much room to work along the sidelines.

In the right system Humphrey can be an impact starter from day one. In the wrong system, it will take him a couple years before he’s no longer a liability. This doesn’t mean he’ll always be a limited player, and the fact that his strengths are so suited to a scheme like Alabama’s suggests that he takes to coaching well. I wouldn’t want to take him in the top twenty unless I was completely convinced he fit what I wanted to do on defense, but as a developmental prospect he’s worth selecting sometime after that.

Teez Tabor, Florida
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I really like Tabor as a college cornerback. I’m not sure how I feel about him in the NFL. And it isn’t just about his combine performance, though that’s a large part. Tabor is one of the worst athletes available in the draft, registering in the 11th percentile among cornerbacks in the forty yard dash, the 8th percentile in benchpress, and somehow the 4th percentile in vertical leap. His best performance was in the broad jump, and he was still comfortably below average.

Everything I said above about Lattimore works in the opposite direction for Tabor. He has almost no margin for error, because he doesn’t have the speed or the quickness to erase his mistakes. In college he was able to win with his physicality at the top of routes, but NFL rules will hold him back here, forcing him to rely more on the athleticism he doesn’t have. He lets receivers across his face far too easily, and he doesn’t have the ability to cut underneath them to disrupt slant routes. He will need to refine his technique, and even if he does there is still a definite ceiling to what he can be.

This doesn’t mean that Tabor is going to wash out of the league. He does enough well that I think he can stick around somewhere as a second or third cornerback. He has experience in both zone and man schemes, and he does a good job reading the play as it develops in front of him, both the eyes of the quarterback and the route of the receiver. He’s a smart player who will work well in any situation he’s put in, and even though he will never be a true shutdown cornerback, I still think he might be worth a late first round selection.

Tre’Davious White, LSU
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White brings an interesting combination of skill, experience, and athleticism to a position that rarely sees all three. He is the most versatile cornerback in the draft, and he is best positioned to contribute immediately. In college he played in a variety of schemes and worked the field from multiple different positions, spending time both in the slot and on the edge as he tracked receivers in man coverage and through zones.

White’s combine didn’t blow anyone away, but he looks comfortable moving on the field. He clings to a receiver’s hip pocket as he runs down the sideline, using gentle pressure to squeeze the windows for throws. His recovery speed is impressive, and he has moments of excellent ball skills that are enough to make up for occasional lapses. He reads offenses well, and he is always willing to play aggressive, breaking off his coverage to jump and through and produce a big play for his defense.

White is ready to contribute right away, but there are still plenty of areas of his game that need improvement. His recovery speed helps mask it, but he gets burned on double moves every now and then, and he doesn’t change direction quickly enough to make plays on balls underneath. He needs to get a lot stronger to play in the NFL, and even then physicality will never be a strength of his game. He’s the sort of player who would be a good add late in the first round, to a team ready to add another piece for another playoff run. But there are better long term projects who will be available in the second round, and I don’t see the upside for him to become a truly special player.

Adoree Jackson, USC
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Jackson is one of the biggest bets on potential at any position in the draft. A threat in all three phases at USC, there are some who believe he may actually be more suited to a full time role on offense. I’m not sure I agree, but I don’t necessarily disagree either. Right now Jackson has one very clear position, and that’s as a punt and kick returner. Whether he becomes a capable cornerback is still very much up in the air.

The speed and quickness Jackson possesses is difficult to miss when he’s running with the ball in the open field, but he hasn’t yet been able to harness it tracking receivers in coverage. He is at his best when he plays about ten yards off the wide receiver, where he can read and react downhill without having to worry about turning his hips. He has the speed to run with any receivers, and his agility should allow him to mirror their breaks, but so far that hasn’t proven to be the case. He always seems a step slow following receivers, and his recovery ability is mysteriously absent.

There are reasons to be concerned about his size, but most of the issues surrounding Jackson are mental, which in the correct situation could be fixed. He gets beaten a lot by quick cuts, but it isn’t a lack of physical ability. If he can become better at reading and anticipating routes, he can develop into a quality cornerback. But that is a long way away, and the player that he currently is will be a liability for any defense. Fortunately, he will always be able to contribute as a returner, and this alone may be enough to make him worth a second round selection.

Sidney Jones, Washington
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The big story on Jones is his injury. He suffered a torn Achilles tendon during Washington’s Pro Day, and his availability for the regular season is in clear doubt. More concerning, this is the sort of injury that could hamper him for years to come, and even though his youth increases his chances of a full recovery, this risk has to be taken into consideration on draft night.

The injury definitely puts a damper on Jones as a prospect, but I was never that high on him to begin with. There are a few things he does extremely well, but as a total package he falls short of what I’d want from a number one cornerback. He gets beaten far too frequently and in too many ways, and I have trouble seeing him patching all these holes in the NFL.

Jones is at his best when he physically challenges the receiver lined up across from him. He does a good job getting into a receiver’s chest, and even if he doesn’t stack him up completely he can ruin the timing of a play. Receivers struggle to get into their routes against him, and he plays just as strong once the ball is in the air, making some great plays to keep the catch from being completed.

Jones’s physicality was lethal in college, but he’s going to have to do more in the NFL, a task I don’t think he’s up to. He had a poor combine prior to his injury, and his lack of agility shows on the field, where he is too easily beaten across his face and struggles to break downhill once his hips are turned. He can be beaten over the top, and he doesn’t have a secondary burst to close on a receiver once separation has opened up. 

There is a role for Jones in the NFL, but it is a limited one. He will be best in a scheme that asks him to press at the line while relieving him of any responsibility over the top, leaving him free to take advantage of his aggression while not leaving the defense exposed. Outside of this situation, I don’t know if he has what it takes to succeed in the NFL. The injury certainly drops him down the board, adding a risk factor teams will shy away from. But even if he was healthy, I never thought he was worth the hype.

Quincy Wilson, Florida
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Let me get this out of the way, because if I don’t it will color everything else I have to say about Wilson. He is far and away the worst run defender among the cornerbacks in the draft. In fact he’s one of the worst tacklers I have ever seen. Off the top of my head I can think of only one player whose futile attempts to bring down a ball carrier have frustrated me more, and I’ll get to him in a couple of weeks (how’s that for a teaser?)

But you don’t need to be able to tackle to be a good cornerback, and I can almost see flashes of a high quality player in Wilson’s future. He has all the tools, with excellent length, agility, and speed that he turns into flashes of excellent play. At his best he can run with a receiver off the line, tracing his route as if he was running it himself and then using his long arms to swat the ball away or pull it in for an interception.

But these flashes are still few and far between. Despite impressive agility numbers at the combine, he often fails to translate this to the field. He plays off balance a lot, and he can get burned by double moves. He frequently freelances to try to jump a route, and while this generates big plays for the defense, it may produce even more for the offense. His recovery speed is excellent, but some of his mistakes are just too big to recover from. The potential is there, but it will take a lot of work to harness it.

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