2017 NFL Draft Preview: Cornerbacks

Earlier this week I brought you a breakdown of the wide receivers and tight ends at the top of this year's draft. And now it's on to the players who are going to be covering them. This year's cornerback class is deep and varied, with a wide range of skilled players, talented athletes, and rare prospects who combine the best of both worlds. Once again, the eight players below are ranked in the order in which I would select them, starting from the best and working down the list.

Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State

Lattimore is one of the premier athletic talents in the draft, and athletic ability alone is enough to make him a high first round pick. He ran a 4.36 forty at a height of six feet, combining the best of both worlds in a league that usually trades off length for speed. This athleticism translates to the field of play, where his speed allows him to keep up with any receiver running down the field and his quickness prevents him from being burned on double moves.

For an athlete like Lattimore it sometimes becomes difficult to separate his pure ability from technique. Is he always under perfect balance and control because he’s playing the right way, or is it just because he’s capable of making movements other players simply can’t? And an equally pressing question is, does it really matter?

Lattimore isn’t a refined cornerback by any means, but his athleticism gives him a much greater margin for error than a normal player. If he gets fooled by a double move, he can swing his hips around without losing balance and run down the receiver before he can get away. If he gets beaten deep or across his face, he has the recovery speed to close down the window before the quarterback can hit it. His impressive ball skills let him turn bad plays into great ones, and he’ll only become more dangerous with more repetitions. He isn’t a finished product by any means, but he’s good enough that he can contribute right away, and down the road he could potentially develop into one of the best coverage guys in the league.

Gareon Conley, Ohio State

Conley is another premier athlete, but he’s not on the same level of his teammate Lattimore. In terms of pure speed he can match up, and he isn’t likely to be beaten deep or outrun on a crossing route. He actually does a good job sticking with receivers on quick breaks as well, but he never looks as smooth doing it as Lattimore does. He always seems to play a little off balance, and periodically it comes back to bite him. He is beaten across his face too easily, and when he bails on a deep route he is rarely able to stop and come back to prevent an underneath throw.

Conley is still an excellent cornerback though, well worth a top twenty selection. He has the best ball skills of any cornerback in the class, consistently locating the ball and going up to attack it at the highest point. He needs to get stronger at the point of the catch, but if he can he’s the sort of cornerback who could rank among the league leaders in interceptions on a regular basis.

Conley will give up some plays. He probably won’t be beaten deep frequently, and he isn’t going to kill your defense. But he doesn’t stack receivers up physically very well, and he’ll be exposed by quicker players who can cut and stop on a dime. The athleticism is there though, and with more repetition he’ll learn how to use his raw ability to cover up these occasional lapses.

Marlon Humphrey, Alabama

If you enjoy physical play from your cornerbacks, Humphrey is probably going to be your favorite player in the draft. He is as physical as they come, both when challenging receivers in their routes and when coming up to support against the run. He can wall off larger receivers at the snap to prevent them from ever getting started down the field, and he does so without drawing flags. Unlike many physical cornerbacks he will have no problem transitioning this part of his game to the tighter rules of the NFL. He will continue to fight receivers within the rulebook, and he will remain a terror around the line of scrimmage. Throwing a screen pass to his side is simply a dumb idea, as he will blow through any blockers standing in his path on his way to bringing down the receiver behind the line of scrimmage.

Humphrey’s physicality is a legitimate weapon, but it can’t cover up all his flaws. He is most comfortable in a zone scheme, and he faces clear struggles when forced to track receivers man to man. He gets shaken by double moves too easily, and although he tested well at the combine, he doesn’t show the same burst that can save a player like Lattimore. He does a good job avoiding being beaten over the top, but receivers can do a lot of damage against him underneath. His ball skills are lacking, and he gives receivers too much room to work along the sidelines.

In the right system Humphrey can be an impact starter from day one. In the wrong system, it will take him a couple years before he’s no longer a liability. This doesn’t mean he’ll always be a limited player, and the fact that his strengths are so suited to a scheme like Alabama’s suggests that he takes to coaching well. I wouldn’t want to take him in the top twenty unless I was completely convinced he fit what I wanted to do on defense, but as a developmental prospect he’s worth selecting sometime after that.

Teez Tabor, Florida

I really like Tabor as a college cornerback. I’m not sure how I feel about him in the NFL. And it isn’t just about his combine performance, though that’s a large part. Tabor is one of the worst athletes available in the draft, registering in the 11^th percentile among cornerbacks in the forty yard dash, the 8^th percentile in benchpress, and somehow the 4^th percentile in vertical leap. His best performance was in the broad jump, and he was still comfortably below average.

Everything I said above about Lattimore works in the opposite direction for Tabor. He has almost no margin for error, because he doesn’t have the speed or the quickness to erase his mistakes. In college he was able to win with his physicality at the top of routes, but NFL rules will hold him back here, forcing him to rely more on the athleticism he doesn’t have. He lets receivers across his face far too easily, and he doesn’t have the ability to cut underneath them to disrupt slant routes. He will need to refine his technique, and even if he does there is still a definite ceiling to what he can be.

This doesn’t mean that Tabor is going to wash out of the league. He does enough well that I think he can stick around somewhere as a second or third cornerback. He has experience in both zone and man schemes, and he does a good job reading the play as it develops in front of him, both the eyes of the quarterback and the route of the receiver. He’s a smart player who will work well in any situation he’s put in, and even though he will never be a true shutdown cornerback, I still think he might be worth a late first round selection.

Tre’Davious White, LSU

White brings an interesting combination of skill, experience, and athleticism to a position that rarely sees all three. He is the most versatile cornerback in the draft, and he is best positioned to contribute immediately. In college he played in a variety of schemes and worked the field from multiple different positions, spending time both in the slot and on the edge as he tracked receivers in man coverage and through zones.

White’s combine didn’t blow anyone away, but he looks comfortable moving on the field. He clings to a receiver’s hip pocket as he runs down the sideline, using gentle pressure to squeeze the windows for throws. His recovery speed is impressive, and he has moments of excellent ball skills that are enough to make up for occasional lapses. He reads offenses well, and he is always willing to play aggressive, breaking off his coverage to jump and through and produce a big play for his defense.

White is ready to contribute right away, but there are still plenty of areas of his game that need improvement. His recovery speed helps mask it, but he gets burned on double moves every now and then, and he doesn’t change direction quickly enough to make plays on balls underneath. He needs to get a lot stronger to play in the NFL, and even then physicality will never be a strength of his game. He’s the sort of player who would be a good add late in the first round, to a team ready to add another piece for another playoff run. But there are better long term projects who will be available in the second round, and I don’t see the upside for him to become a truly special player.

Adoree Jackson, USC

Jackson is one of the biggest bets on potential at any position in the draft. A threat in all three phases at USC, there are some who believe he may actually be more suited to a full time role on offense. I’m not sure I agree, but I don’t necessarily disagree either. Right now Jackson has one very clear position, and that’s as a punt and kick returner. Whether he becomes a capable cornerback is still very much up in the air.

The speed and quickness Jackson possesses is difficult to miss when he’s running with the ball in the open field, but he hasn’t yet been able to harness it tracking receivers in coverage. He is at his best when he plays about ten yards off the wide receiver, where he can read and react downhill without having to worry about turning his hips. He has the speed to run with any receivers, and his agility should allow him to mirror their breaks, but so far that hasn’t proven to be the case. He always seems a step slow following receivers, and his recovery ability is mysteriously absent.

There are reasons to be concerned about his size, but most of the issues surrounding Jackson are mental, which in the correct situation could be fixed. He gets beaten a lot by quick cuts, but it isn’t a lack of physical ability. If he can become better at reading and anticipating routes, he can develop into a quality cornerback. But that is a long way away, and the player that he currently is will be a liability for any defense. Fortunately, he will always be able to contribute as a returner, and this alone may be enough to make him worth a second round selection.

Sidney Jones, Washington

 

The big story on Jones is his injury. He suffered a torn Achilles tendon during Washington’s Pro Day, and his availability for the regular season is in clear doubt. More concerning, this is the sort of injury that could hamper him for years to come, and even though his youth increases his chances of a full recovery, this risk has to be taken into consideration on draft night.

The injury definitely puts a damper on Jones as a prospect, but I was never that high on him to begin with. There are a few things he does extremely well, but as a total package he falls short of what I’d want from a number one cornerback. He gets beaten far too frequently and in too many ways, and I have trouble seeing him patching all these holes in the NFL.

Jones is at his best when he physically challenges the receiver lined up across from him. He does a good job getting into a receiver’s chest, and even if he doesn’t stack him up completely he can ruin the timing of a play. Receivers struggle to get into their routes against him, and he plays just as strong once the ball is in the air, making some great plays to keep the catch from being completed.

Jones’s physicality was lethal in college, but he’s going to have to do more in the NFL, a task I don’t think he’s up to. He had a poor combine prior to his injury, and his lack of agility shows on the field, where he is too easily beaten across his face and struggles to break downhill once his hips are turned. He can be beaten over the top, and he doesn’t have a secondary burst to close on a receiver once separation has opened up. 

There is a role for Jones in the NFL, but it is a limited one. He will be best in a scheme that asks him to press at the line while relieving him of any responsibility over the top, leaving him free to take advantage of his aggression while not leaving the defense exposed. Outside of this situation, I don’t know if he has what it takes to succeed in the NFL. The injury certainly drops him down the board, adding a risk factor teams will shy away from. But even if he was healthy, I never thought he was worth the hype.

Quincy Wilson, Florida

Let me get this out of the way, because if I don’t it will color everything else I have to say about Wilson. He is far and away the worst run defender among the cornerbacks in the draft. In fact he’s one of the worst tacklers I have ever seen. Off the top of my head I can think of only one player whose futile attempts to bring down a ball carrier have frustrated me more, and I’ll get to him in a couple of weeks (how’s that for a teaser?)

But you don’t need to be able to tackle to be a good cornerback, and I can almost see flashes of a high quality player in Wilson’s future. He has all the tools, with excellent length, agility, and speed that he turns into flashes of excellent play. At his best he can run with a receiver off the line, tracing his route as if he was running it himself and then using his long arms to swat the ball away or pull it in for an interception.

But these flashes are still few and far between. Despite impressive agility numbers at the combine, he often fails to translate this to the field. He plays off balance a lot, and he can get burned by double moves. He frequently freelances to try to jump a route, and while this generates big plays for the defense, it may produce even more for the offense. His recovery speed is excellent, but some of his mistakes are just too big to recover from. The potential is there, but it will take a lot of work to harness it.

2017 NFL Draft Preview: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

It’s that time of year again. We are now exactly one month away from the NFL Draft, the most exciting non-sport sporting event of the year. And over the coming weeks I’ll be breaking down some of the top prospects in this year’s class, hopefully knocking out two position groups a week until it’s time for the draft.

We’ll start today with the wide receivers and tight ends. I selected nine players between these two positions to look at, based largely on projections I’ve seen of who is supposed to go in the first round. My hope is to have broken down every player selected in the top 32, and while I will inevitably fail to reach that goal, I feel I’ll cover most of them. If there’s a player here you don’t see, it’s probably because they suck and have no hope of making it in the NFL. Or I just didn’t have a chance to look at them, what with having a full time job and a social life (okay, kidding about that last part).

As always, thanks to DraftBreakdown for providing excellent video cutups of the players, and to Mockdraftable for their wonderful visualizations of combine results. And now, ranked from best to worst, here are the nine wide receivers and tight ends I looked at for this year’s draft.

OJ Howard, TE Alabama

Howard has everything you could ask for from a tight end. Though he wasn’t given a ton to do as a receiver in college, he made the most of his few opportunities, consistently winning down the field and generating big plays for his offense. He’s a quality route runner with fantastic hands, and he has the ability to make difficult catches over the middle of the field. But as good as he is as a receiver, he might be even better as a blocker­. He uses his quickness to win leverage on defenders, sealing them away from the play and giving the ball carrier a lane to run through. He’s at his best playing in space on the second level, where he is matched up with linebackers and safeties who can’t compete with his size and athleticism.

Physically Howard is pretty much the platonic ideal of a tight end. He is 6-6 and weighs 251 pounds, and he is an athletic freak for any size. At the combine he performed better than the 85^th percentile among tight ends in the 40 yard dash, broad jump, 3 cone drill, 20 yard shuttle, and 60 yard shuttle. The speed, explosiveness, and agility that he brings to the table is rare to find, and it suggests he could produce even more at the next level.

Howard has a broad range of skills, but where he falters is in his depth in any specific aspect of the game. He’s a fantastic blocker, but he’s vulnerable to being overwhelmed by stronger defenders at the point of attack. He’s a contributor in the passing game, but he’s not going to fool anyone into thinking he’s a wide receiver. In essence, he’s a tight end, and he subject to the same questions about value that the position faces. This is why I struggle to see him as a top ten pick. I don’t think it would be ridiculous if he ended up being taken there, but I’m not sure he excels at enough to convince me he’s worth that investment.

Corey Davis, WR Central Michigan

 

This isn’t what you’d expect from a player coming from a midmajor school, but Davis is clearly the most polished receiver I studied this year. He does so many little things well, from his blocking to his ability to beat press coverage, but most significantly in his route running. He sells every fake with his entire body, and he has a looseness to his hips that allows him to swing himself around in ways that most receivers of his size simply can’t.

Davis’s technique is excellent, and he also happens to be one of the more physically gifted receivers in the class. He has good size at 6-3, and though he hasn’t been able to work out due to injuries, it doesn’t look like speed is an issue on the field. He’s not a great leaper in jump ball situations, but he regularly yanks away balls that defenders probably should have pulled in themselves.

There are things I could nitpick about Davis, but nothing clearly emerges as a potentially fatal flaw. As good a route runner as he is, he could still use refinement in some areas, particularly giving himself room to work on the sideline and handling contact over the middle of the field. He doesn’t do much after the catch, and he suffers occasional concentration drops. But he is still a safe pick with good upside, worth snagging in the middle of the first round.

John Ross, WR Washington

If you weren’t already aware of Ross, you certainly heard about him when he set a record by running a 4.22 forty at the combine. Speed is certainly the primary trait you see when you watch him play. He regularly blows past cornerbacks down the field, so fast that his quarterback struggled to get the ball far enough to reach him. He explodes off the line, and he only picks up speed on the second level. No cornerback can run with him, which forces defenses to play off of him, opening up a lot of space to work underneath.

Speed is Ross’s defining skill, but it isn’t all that he has to work with. He is just as quick when it comes to changing directions as he is running in a straight line, and he puts this to use both as a route runner and with the ball in his hands. He can sell fakes farther than almost any receiver, knowing he can stop, turn, and reach his mark faster than anyone else. He isn’t an advanced route runner, but he shows good instincts to develop in that area, as he will occasionally alter the angles of his routes to open holes in the secondary. And he is capable of some truly special things after the catch, which will make him a nightmare if his team decides to use him returning punts or kickoffs.

Ross is small, and he has all the downsides that come with small receivers. He isn’t much of a threat in the red zone, though he can occasionally create good separation with a jab step before breaking to a fade route in the corner. He gets knocked off his route easily by physical coverage, but he is quick enough that very few defenders can get their hands on him. This might be different in the NFL, and he certainly has work to do to become more polished as a receiver who can win with more than just physical ability. He isn’t a sure thing, but of the receivers in the class he is probably the only one with the potential to turn into a true superstar at the next level.

David Njoku, TE Miami

When breaking down OJ Howard above, I described him as a player without any real weaknesses but without clear points of dominance either. The second best tight end in the class is the exact opposite story. Njoku has glaring holes in his game—most significantly major lapses as a blocker and some drop issues—but where he excels he is as dominant as any tight end currently in the league.

Njoku is at his best as a receiver. He is capable of making incredibly precise and sharp cuts on his routes (though there is plenty of inconsistency here as well), and despite his drop issues he can make difficult catches outside the frame of his body. He is a jump ball threat in the endzone, and he does a good job shielding defenders with his body to make contested catches. But the area he really excels in is what he can do with the ball in his hands. His size and speed make him almost impossible to bring down in the open field, and of the nine players I looked at here he is probably second only to Curtis Samuel after the catch (and Samuel may be more of a running back than a receiver, but I’ll get to him).

Every year we see a few players like Njoku, and every year they terrify me. He certainly has star ability, and even his weak points are things he shows potential to become above average at. But he also brings a lot of risk, and I wouldn’t be stunned if he failed to ever become a reliable starter. The reward is great here, but the risk might be even greater, which is why I had to knock him down into the latter portion of the first round.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR USC

There are a number of glaring flaws in Smith-Schuster’s game. The most glaring is his lack of speed. It shows up on the field and was confirmed by his forty yard dash time, a mediocre 4.54 that puts him in the lower half of all receiver prospects. He struggles to separate from coverage over the top, and he isn’t ever going to be a deep threat. This allows defenders to play him tight to the line with impunity, knowing he’s no threat to burn them deep.

This isn’t a fatal flaw by any means, but it certainly holds him back when put alongside his other weaknesses. He isn’t a great route runner, and at 6-1 he isn’t tall enough to be a truly dominant “big” receiver. He disappointed with a 32.5 inch vertical at the combine, and he struggled to win consistently in jump ball situations at the college level.

There are a lot of flaws with Smith-Schuster as a receiver prospect, and they will certainly hold him back at the next level. But he has plenty of strengths as well, and he should be a quality starter in the NFL. He’ll need time to add strength to compete with professional athletes, but he has the frame and the skills to push people around on tight passes over the middle of the field. He works well on the sideline, and he can go from full speed to a dead stop with precision that will make him incredibly useful when partnered with a quarterback who can hit him on the back shoulder with anticipation. And even though his top end speed isn’t great, he shows pretty good acceleration off the ball, which should mitigate some of the other concerns.

Smith-Schuster has a very limited ceiling. He won’t be a Pro Bowl receiver, and he probably tops out as a secondary threat in an offense. But as long as he can add to his already strong frame in an NFL training program, he shouldn’t flame out of the league either. He’s a safe prospect who will be able to produce consistently in a good environment, which is well worth a second round or maybe even a late first selection.

Zay Jones, WR East Carolina

When it comes to the draft it’s a common question to ask whether you’d prefer college production or athletic potential. Well what if I told you it was possible to have both? Jones set FBS records for both career receptions (399!) and single season receptions (158!), and he followed that up by dominating the combine, with arguably the best performance by any wide receiver in this year’s class. He has good size at 6-2, ran an excellent forty at 4.45, and performed better than average in every combine drill.

Jones is a versatile receiver, which is what you’d expect of someone who was able to produce so many catches. He can play both in the slot and on the edge, and he attacks with a varied route tree. He has a good sense for holes in the defense, and he’ll settle down when he finds himself uncovered. He is also capable of spectacular catches, leaping over defenders along the sideline and plucking the ball out of the air with a single hand.

Jones played at a lower level of competition than most of these other receivers, but he produced even when facing major conference teams. But there are still concerns about how he’ll fare facing NFL caliber talent on a play by play basis. His forty time makes him look faster than he is, and even with a quick burst off the ball he struggles to separate over the top. He can’t beat press coverage, and he often ends up forced towards the sideline where he leaves little room for his quarterback to put the ball. I don’t think these will be fatal flaws at the next level, but they raise enough cause for concern to slide him down to the second round.

Mike Williams, WR Clemson

You don’t need speed to be a successful receiver in the NFL. DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, and Alshon Jeffery are all top ten receivers when healthy, and they all lack top notch speed over the top. And Williams certainly looks like he could be in that mold. At 6-4 he towers above the other receivers in this class, and he dominated throughout his time at Clemson, capping it off with an overwhelming performance down the stretch in the championship game against Alabama.

Watching Williams play, it’s impossible not to see all the remarkable things he can do. He is a master of contested catches, ripping the ball out of the air with his strength almost indifferent to any defenders who might be around him. He reads the ball well as it’s travelling in the air, and he waits for the last second to reach out and snag it. He is at his best on back shoulder throws, where even if a defender can keep up with his sudden stops they usually can’t fight through his big body and strong hands to get to the football.

It’s hard not to be impressed by the things Williams can do. But then you start listing all the things he can’t do. He can’t win over the top, and defenders don’t bother to respect that. And unlike Smith-Schuster, he’s as slow off the ball as he is down the field. His wide frame makes him vulnerable to press coverage, and top NFL cornerbacks will be able to stop him before he can even get into his route. He doesn’t do a good job catching balls outside the frame of his body, and even with his imposing height his poor leaping ability makes him merely average at jump balls. He doesn’t bring anything besides occasional brute strength after the catch. Outside of the back shoulder throw and maybe slants, there isn’t any route he wins consistently.

Maybe it’s enough. Maybe Williams can continue to overpower people at the next level and turn into the ultimate possession receiver. The upside is there, and it might be worth a first round selection. But there’s also the possibility that he never makes it work in the NFL, and that his limitations will prevent him from contributing in any capacity to an offense.

Curtis Samuel, WR/RB Ohio State

It took me a while to decide where I wanted to put Samuel, and I’m still not completely sure about this. I ended up lumping him in with the wide receivers, because I believe the role he is best suited for in the NFL sees him catching the ball more than taking it as a handoff. But whatever his actual position designation ends up being, Samuel will present real problems in the NFL, both for the offense trying to use him and the defense trying to stop him.

Samuel’s pure athletic ability is unmatched in this year’s class. His speed and quickness made everyone around him on the college level look like they were playing with their feet stuck in mud, and this will transition to the next level. Samuel is elite in open space, making sharp cuts that cover an almost impossible amount of ground and then using instantaneous acceleration to tear downhill and leave defenses in his dust. He is sneakily strong as well, shrugging off tacklers who can’t get a clean hit on him.

The problem with Samuel is that he does almost none of the “little stuff” well. He struggles with drops and relies on his chest too much to bring the ball in. He doesn’t read his blocks well and ends up dancing a lot in the backfield. His quickness does occasionally transfer to his route running, and when it does there are few defensive backs who can keep up with him. But he shows no deeper understanding of how to get open, never altering his routes for situation or coverage.

Drafting Samuel is an acceptance of a three year project. The burden will be placed on the coaching staff to figure out what to do with him, and then to train him to serve in that role. Until then he really will only be able to contribute as a punt returner or in special offensive packages (potentially with the upside of Tyreek Hill). And if he can develop his game in a scheme built to utilize his strengths, he will become one of the most valuable offensive weapons in the league.

Cooper Kupp, WR Eastern Washington

 

The best receiver in FCS history has received quite a bit of buzz leading up to the draft. It’s quieted in recent weeks, but for a while there were suggestions that he could sneak up into the first round. That would be a major reach, for a player with a very defined role and ceiling at the next level.

Kupp will be a slot receiver in the NFL, and he’ll be a pretty good one at that. He’s bigger than most slot receivers, but there has been a trend towards larger bodies on the inside in recent years, and he’s arriving at the perfect time for his skillset. He isn’t particularly fast, but he has good quickness, which he uses well in attacking the underneath routes. He doesn’t threaten much down the field, but within five yards it is difficult to stick with his feints and sharp cuts.

Kupp has good hands, an instinctive understanding of coverages, and a very productive background. But the level of competition made him look better than he actually is, and he will struggle adjusting to NFL speed and strength. At best he’ll be a reliable second or third option in a passing attack the sort of player who comes up big a few times every year but never produces enough to be considered a legitimate threat.