Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
McMillan is the giant of this year’s wide receiver class. He stands 6-4 and weighs 219 pounds, and he makes full use of this size on the field. He’s the best of the receivers I studied at the point of the catch, able to widen his catch radius and contort his body to make plays on the ball even when he’s covered. He isn’t truly elite in this area like some we’ve seen over the past couple years—he has weirdly short arms, and on a couple occasions I saw him misjudge deep passes in the air—but he’s good enough here to elevate him above the rest of this class.
McMillan wins so much with his pure physical profile that it can go under the radar how good he is at winning in other ways. He’s surprisingly shifty for someone as big as he is, and he utilizes that quickness as both a route-runner and with the ball in his hands. He does a good job setting up defenders before making sharp breaks on his routes, and after the catch he is one of the better receivers in this class at finding space and using his strong frame to run through tackles and create extra yards.
There
are some concerns with McMillan, which is why I’d probably categorize him as
just a top-ten prospect, rather than some of the truly elite top-five players
we’ve seen in recent years. He is pretty good at using his hands to swat away
attempts to jam him at the line of scrimmage, but later in his routes he can
get caught up in physicality that prevents him from truly separating. A lack of
top-end speed is a similar concern. He ran around a 4.5 forty at his pro day,
which is fast enough to be successful as a receiver with his profile, but not
fast enough to truly shift the way a defense has to play against him. As a deep
threat he’s mostly going to win by snatching 50/50 balls out of the air. And
he’s good enough at that to at least keep defenses honest, giving him the space
he needs to create with his skills underneath.
Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
As a receiver, Loveland’s skills are at an elite level. He is a sensational athlete, and he understands how to harness that athleticism to its full potential. He explodes off the ball with his first couple steps, and when he makes breaks on his routes he shows astonishing quickness and flexibility for someone his size. At the catch point he has the length to go outside his frame to make difficult catches as well as the strength to play through contact and win contested catches. And once he gets the ball in his hands, the same quickness and strength makes him difficult to tackle, turning him into a real weapon both down the field and underneath.
Loveland is advanced technically as a receiver too. He understands coverages and how to manipulate defenders to open space. He’s capable of moments of great explosion, but he is clever about when to deploy them, lulling defenders into a false sense of security before separating from them. Simply put, there are only a few linebackers in the NFL who would have any chance of covering him. The only real solution is to try to get physical and disrupt him on his route, but he’s typically strong enough to at least find ways to win leverage and set himself up for a contested catch opportunity.
Tight end is a tricky position to evaluate. Because the best tight ends can fundamentally transform an offense, putting defenses in impossible situations with personnel. But for this to work a tight end needs to be more than just an elite receiver. He also needs to be a weapon in the running game. This is the part that often struggles to translate from college to the NFL, and I have some concerns about Loveland there. He was used frequently as a blocker by Michigan, but the results were often underwhelming. The best he was ever able to do was use his body to shield off a play, and on occasion he wasn’t even able to manage this, overextending and whiffing entirely.
Loveland
isn’t a bad blocker, and in the long run I think he can manage enough to at
least keep defenses honest, to make him more than just a big, slow wide
receiver. And he doesn’t have to be a great blocker, just good enough. His
receiving abilities are enough to make him a top twenty player, and the upside
of getting a weapon like that in an offense is worth the risk that comes with his
position.
Travis Hunter, WR, Colorado
I’ve never scouted a player like Hunter before, so I’m not really sure what the best way to handle this is. Obviously he plays cornerback as well as receiver, and that dramatically increases his value from a draft perspective. But for the purposes of this piece, I’m pretending he is just a wide receiver. And this ranking reflects that, not the combined package of where I actually think he belongs in the draft.
As a wide receiver Hunter is a very interesting prospect. You can absolutely see the athleticism, in the way he makes cuts in space, his impressive ball skills, and his ability separate over the top when he really opens things up. But these are typically just flashes interspersed with moments of less inspiring play. He isn’t always as detailed as he needs to be on his routes, and with the ball in his hands he frequently passes up easy yards trying to dance and create a huge play that isn’t there. He has the quickness to be dangerous beating press coverage off the line, but he doesn’t have a refined release package. And when a defender gets hands on him, his slight frame is a genuine problem, as he can be completely erased from a play by physicality.
On the whole I’d say Hunter as a receiver prospect is defined largely on raw athletic potential, but there are parts of his game that are extremely well refined. He’s clever at varying the pace of his routes to set up a defender before exploding past him. And he’s great at recognizing zone coverage and finding holes to settle into, especially when a play breaks down and the quarterback is forced to improvise. You can really see the cornerback experience in how he plays receiver, his understanding of what a coverage scheme is trying to do and how to take advantage of it.
Strictly
as a wide receiver, I think an upside gamble on Hunter would be worth a
selection in the top twenty. He’s not a surefire star, but he has the potential
to develop into one, if he focuses and really refines his craft in a way he
hasn’t been able to do splitting positions to this point. Even if he doesn’t
develop like that, I think he already has the skills to be an extremely good
number three option who will likely grow into a solid number two with a few
more years of basic repetition.
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Egbuka excels at all the little things you’d want from a wide receiver. He’s the best route-runner in the class, with very little wasted motion and a deep understanding of coverage schemes that lets him exploit the weakest parts of a defense. He’s not just good at recognizing holes in a zone and settling into them. He is also able to use his routes to manipulate and move defenders, opening even wider spaces for him to attack.
Egbuka is also fantastic at playing the ball in the air. His hands are extremely reliable, and he is great at tracking deep passes and adjusting his body to make a play. This makes him a real threat in the red zone and the best friend of a quarterback simply trying to get rid of the ball before pressure closes in.
The knock on Egbuka is that he’s just kind of average as an athlete. He isn’t big, but he isn’t small either. He isn’t slow, but he isn’t fast. When he gets the ball in his hands, he’s able to pick up the yards that are available but doesn’t add more than that. And while he’s usually pretty good at eluding press coverage (helped by playing a lot in the slot), he can get pushed around when a defender gets hands on him. Even as a blocker, an area where he has a lot of experience and willingness, he can be overwhelmed and struggle to sustain blocks.
Egbuka
profiles as a very good second option who might struggle if asked to carry the
weight of a passing attack. This is the exact role he played at Ohio State, and
there may be a chance he can grow into more if he’s asked to expand his responsibilities
in an offense. But even if he tops out as just a reliably very good second
option, the value that provides is still worth a pick in the latter half of the
first round.
Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Golden is sort of the exact opposite of everything I said about Egbuka, and I wouldn’t blame you if you reversed the order of these two. Golden is a much riskier selection, but he also has the potential to turn into a true number one receiver, the sort of value proposition that I again feel most comfortable with later in the first round. His best role is also probably as a second option, a vertical threat whose speed opens space for him to create with his yards-after-catch skills underneath.
Golden is a sensational athlete. He ran a 4.3 forty at the combine, and even if he doesn’t look quite that fast on the field, his speed is definitely enough to separate over the top against good cornerbacks. He has tremendous stop-start ability, which shows up more with the ball in his hands than as a route-runner, but offers potential to develop in the latter area. He wasn’t asked to run a very complex route tree at Texas, mostly just vertical routes to clear out space beneath him, and his lack of development in that area shows. At times he flashes sharp breaks to create separation. At others, he will run straight into a defender sitting in a zone in front of him, ending any hope he has of getting open.
In
the long run I would bet on Golden developing into at least an average
route-runner. There are bigger red flags I see, mostly in his struggles with
physicality. He can get pushed around by press coverage, and he doesn’t do a
lot at the point of the catch. There’s a risk he never develops into anything
more than a pure deep threat, but even that has value in the NFL.
Luther Burden, WR, Missouri
Burden has some physical limitations that will likely prevent him from ever being more than a high-level slot receiver. He’s a little on the smaller size, and he plays like it on the field, with difficulties expanding his catch radius or playing through contact either in press coverage or at the point of the catch. He has good speed but nothing spectacular, a 4.42 forty that gives him the ability to separate over the top but doesn’t strike fear into defenders’ hearts.
The main asset Burden has is his quickness. He’s capable of making incredibly sharp breaks at full speed, and when he deploys them well he can be a nightmare to either cover or tackle. He has pretty good strength as well, and in the open field he can turn a good play into a great one. But he can just as easily turn a good play into a mediocre one, as he tries to do way too much and runs himself into trouble rather than taking what’s there.
As a route-runner he flashes ability but doesn’t show any high level technique. He makes sharp cuts, but often defenders are able to anticipate this and beat him to his spot. He’s actually at his best when he simply runs vertically. He has the speed to create separation, and his ball-tracking skills are impressive, able to contort his body to either grab the ball over his shoulder or to stop on a dime for back-shoulder throws. But again he’s at his best here working from the slot, where he has the space to get the release he needs down the field without being squeezed to the sideline.
In
college Burden’s offense frequently had to scheme him touches, running him in a
lot of motions to get him clear of defenders and give him an opportunity to win
in space. That same plan can be successful in the NFL, but it limits the
ceiling of what he can be. There’s still value in this, and it might be worth a
pick at the end of the first round, though is probably better waiting until the
second.
Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Warren is pretty much the opposite of everything I said about Loveland above. As a blocker he is a genuine weapon. He has the power to blow people off the ball as an in-line blocker, and enough athleticism to seal defenders off in space. He moved all over the formation at Penn State and was an effective blocker everywhere—as a tight end, as a wide receiver, as a fullback, even on the rare occasion he was asked to stay in and pass block.
As a receiver, I don’t really see that much there. He put up impressive numbers at Penn State, but that was in an offense centered around feeding him the football, against defenders he could simply overpower in a way he likely won’t be able to in the NFL. He’s a stiff athlete who doesn’t really have the ability to create separation, and even when he is able to generate some space, any defender with halfway decent athleticism can erase it before the ball arrives. At times it seems like Warren doesn’t even try to get open, just runs straight at a defender and tries to use his big frame to box them out for a contested catch. He’s good at the catch point, but not good enough to be an above-average receiving threat with just this ability.
Warren’s best attribute in the passing game actually comes once he gets the ball in his hands. He’s a very good runner, with an instinctive feel for space and the strength to power for extra yards. And this is the one place where he becomes interesting as a prospect. Because Penn State used him a lot as a wildcat quarterback, and he was genuinely very good at it. A few NFL teams have gotten in the habit of snapping the ball to their tight ends in short-yardage situations, and in most cases they just plow blindly forward and trust their massive frames to push the pile. Warren is different. He will actually read the play in front of him, wait for his blocks to set up, and even hand the ball off if the read calls for it. He isn’t a threat to throw the ball, so the value he brings here isn’t even at a Taysom Hill level. But there is some value, especially down around the goalline.
Warren
has a weird profile, and I think he’ll be a solid starter, even if I don’t
really see a scenario where he becomes even an average receiving threat in the
NFL. The athletic tools simply aren’t there, and I don’t expect an NFL offense
to build their system around getting him the ball the way they did at Penn
State. He profiles as a third round pick, but the value he adds in short
yardage might be enough for me to take a swing on him in the second.