Opening Week Reactions

The first sixteen games of the NFL season are in the books, and now is the time to make snap judgments about how the rest of the season is going to go. Football is a game with a lot of volatility, but that has never stopped us from jumping to conclusions over a single week of action. Maybe this past week was just a bunch of bad breaks. Maybe teams will grow as the season moves along. Maybe Josh Allen will come in and save Buffalo’s season (okay, that one isn’t happening).

Below I’ve listed some of the headlines from the opening week, ranked in ascending order of how likely I think they are to continue. The first few are just flashes in the pan, while the last few I guarantee will keep up through the season. So we start of course, with the one we have seen so often before.

Same old Chargers

This was supposed to be the year that broke the Chargers curse. If it is, it isn’t off to a good start. It’s not that they played badly in the first game. They moved the ball comfortably for most of the game, and while their defense struggled some against the pass, they kept the Chiefs from beating them on the ground. They played well, and were just done in by the same mistakes that have killed them for years. They dropped easy touchdowns. They allowed a 91 yard punt return. They muffed a punt themselves.

It seems foolish at this point to say that the Chargers will stop making these mistakes, but I’m going to keep saying it. Sooner or later regression to the mean is going to hit them, and they are going to start winning games. The Chiefs have been a bad matchup for them for the past few years, and with four of their next five against the Bills, 49ers, Raiders, and Browns, I have a feeling this game will be all but forgotten a couple weeks down the road.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best quarterback for the Buccaneers

The biggest surprise of the weekend was Tampa Bay’s explosive victory over New Orleans. The Buccaneers raced out to 48 points, powered by 417 yards and four touchdowns through the air (plus a rushing touchdown!) from veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Jameis Winston suspended for the first three weeks, the thought was that they would just have to hope to survive until he returned. Instead they were led to a stunning upset by their backup, leading people to question whether their mercurial young starter is worth the headaches he brings.

I’m going to stop this right here. We’ve seen this story from Fitzpatrick a half dozen times before, and we know how it ends. No one ever doubted that he was capable of what he did on Sunday. The question with him is always what he does to follow it up. Whether it happens next week, or the week after, he will have a game where he throws multiple costly interceptions.

There are reasons to question Winston. To this point in his career he has been a very similar player to Fitzpatrick, a liability just as often as he is an asset. But there’s a difference between an inconsistent 35 year old quarterback and an inconsistent 24 year old. Winston might not be the answer, but Fitzpatrick certainly isn’t, and it isn’t worth wasting time to learn what everyone who follows the NFL has known for years.

The Browns are back!

With an opening week tie of the Steelers the Browns not only snapped their 17 game losing streak, they are now off to their best start since 2004. Facing off against a division rival with Super Bowl aspirations, they came from two touchdowns back to force overtime, and even though they weren’t able to convert this into a victory they have to count this as a positive.

Unfortunately, I think this game said far more about the Steelers than it did about the Browns. Pittsburgh turned the ball over six times and racked up more than 100 yards of penalties, giving Cleveland opportunities over and over again. As Bill Barnwell pointed out on Twitter, before yesterday teams that had a turnover margin of +5 or better were 132-4 since 1999 (and the Browns account for two of those losses). Cleveland absolutely should have won this game, and the fact that they didn’t is an indictment of the talent on this team.

Were there positive signs? Yes, there were. Jarvis Landry was excellent, and Josh Gordon made a spectacular catch to tie things up late in the game. First round pick Denzel Ward collected two interceptions from a future Hall of Fame quarterback in the first game of his career, and Myles Garrett looked every bit the superstar edge rusher he was expected to be. This team still has a bright future, but it might take until later in the season to see it.

Aaron Rodgers can save the Packers from anything

Sunday night was a remarkable performance, and it served to remind anyone who might have forgotten during his absence last season that Rodgers is simply in a different league than any other quarterback in the NFL. The throw he made on the touchdown to Geronimo Allison was the sort that fewer than five people in the world can do, and he did it on one leg. The rest of his offense deserves credit for the help they gave him—Davante Adams and Randall Cobb both had great runs after the catch, and the offensive line did an excellent job keeping a clean pocket for a quarterback who couldn’t move—but this game came down to Rodgers being far and away the best player on the field.

The problem for Green Bay is that they won’t be playing the Bears every week. Their defense looked vulnerable against both the run and the pass for most of the game, and a more experienced quarterback will eat them alive. And next week they will be facing one of the most dangerous pass rushes in the league in Minnesota, who will make it much harder to protect an immobile quarterback. That’s if Rodgers plays, which is far from a certain thing. He was able to make it back into the game last night, but as the adrenaline (and painkillers) wear off and the knee starts to swell, it wouldn’t stun me if it ended up keeping him out the next few weeks. If that happens, the Packers could be in for a rough start to the season.

Atlanta’s offense is doomed

The Falcons to start 2018 looked a lot like the Falcons from 2017. They moved the ball, their offensive stars showed up, and yet somehow they failed to put points on the board. They failed repeatedly in the red zone, settling for field goals and failed fourth down attempts and only once punching it into the endzone. A 12 point performance is embarrassing for a team with this much offensive talent, even against a defense as good as Philadelphia’s.

Most of the blame has gone to offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, particularly for his play calling in the red zone. And while I take issue with his decision to slam the ball into a brick wall on the initial fourth down, I didn’t think his play calling in the red zone was that bad throughout the game. In fact, that fourth down never would have happened if Matt Ryan had hit the open receiver in the endzone on the previous play, instead of lofting it over his head and nearly being intercepted.

That was the real issue for Atlanta on Thursday, and it is even more troubling than coordinator issues. Ryan looked completely ineffective throwing the football, with every pass floating as if the ball was filled with helium. When they got down to goal to go at the end of the game, he couldn’t even keep the ball in the field of play to give his receivers a chance to score the winning touchdown.

I don’t know what is going on with Ryan. If he’s hurt, I haven’t heard anything about it. But at only 33 years old, he seems too young to be suffering a Peyton Manning like loss in arm strength. It’s something we will have to watch closely going forward, because if Ryan plays like he did on opening night, one of the top teams in the league will suddenly find themselves flailing just to make the postseason.

The Bears are ready to compete. No wait, they still suck.

It’s hard to predict what Bears team we will see going forward, since they were really two different teams on Sunday night. Will they be the team that was explosive and dynamic on both sides of the ball that they were in the first half, or the limp and inept team that lost the game in the second? The answer is both. We got the complete experience from the Bears in week 1, and we’ll keep getting it going forward.

This team is young, and young teams are inconsistent. They have a young quarterback and a young coach, and both showed their inexperience in the second half. Mitch Trubisky looked sensational through the scripted plays at the beginning of the game, and he had nice throws even through to the end. But he also had plays where he looked completely lost, dropping his eyes and running straight into pressure. Matt Nagy designed a creative opening script, and then fell into a bland rhythm that culminated with a poor decision to kick a field goal rather than going for it on fourth and short late. You would expect both to learn from their mistakes, but there are still plenty more mistakes for them to make along the way.

Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t the best quarterback in the league

Last season was pure magic for Garoppolo. Traded in the middle of the year from New England to San Francisco, he took over as the starting quarterback once he was familiar with the offense and went on a run for the ages. He completed 67% of his passes and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, leading a team that had to that point won only two games to five straight victories to close the season. This earned him a huge extension in the offseason, making him (briefly) the highest paid player in NFL history despite having only seven starts under his belt.

Expectations were high coming into 2018, and it’s hard to imagine him falling flatter than he did against the Vikings. He completed less than half his passes and threw three ugly interceptions, earning the first loss of his career. There were some mitigating factors. He was facing one of the best defenses in the league, lost his top receiver and two of his top six offensive linemen during the game, and his receivers let him down with a couple costly drops. And he did have a spectacular touchdown throw on the run late in the game to at least give the 49ers a chance to come back. But on the whole this was a bad performance, definitely the worst of his career.

Some regression was inevitable, but it’s a bit concerning how this happened. Garoppolo was running for his life the entire game behind an offensive line that was supposed to be a strength, having been heavily invested in this offseason. Most teams he’ll face won’t have a defensive line as stacked as Minnesota’s, and this line will come together with more experience, but he will face a lot of pressure this year, and he has to handle it better than he did against Minnesota. The biggest criticism you could have had against him coming into the season was his propensity to throw the ball to the wrong team, and when pressured on Sunday he made that mistake over and over. If he doesn’t become better at protecting the ball, it’s going to be a long season for the 49ers, and potentially a long five years as his new contract drags along.

No one will stop Kansas City’s offense this year

It was easy to fall in love with this offense on paper, and the opening game of the year backed that up. They moved the ball effortlessly against a good Chargers defense, primarily through the air powered by their young quarterback. Their offensive line kept the passer clean. Tyreek Hill has completed his growth from a one dimensional gadget player into a complete receiver. And they racked up over 250 yards through the air without really getting Sammy Watkins or Travis Kelce involved.

The questions about Kansas City’s offense were always about Pat Mahomes, and his opening performance certainly allayed a lot of those fears. His accuracy and ball placement were a bit spotty, but he made enough plays both down the field and with his legs to make this offense lethal. Andy Reid designed the perfect game plan integrating college style concepts with his typical west coast scheme. There’s plenty of time for things to fall apart (and Reid is notoriously worse when he doesn’t have multiple weeks to prepare for an opponent), but through the first game this team looks capable of competing with any in the AFC.

Case Keenum might not be the savior in Denver

Keenum was successful in Minnesota last year with a very simple formula. Avoid turnovers, and take just enough shots down the field to score points while the defense shuts down the opposition. He was brought into Denver to do the exact same thing, and even though the Broncos won their opening game against the Seahawks, they have to be worried about Keenum’s performance. After throwing only seven interceptions all of last season, he threw three in his very first game in Denver, setting Seattle up for easy scores and nearly costing Denver the game.

The thing is, this isn’t something new with Keenum. He avoided turnovers in Minnesota last year, but it was more luck than anything to do with him. He has a habit of flinging the ball up and just hoping it works out. The fact that it did so repeatedly in Minnesota was a testament to both the Vikings receiving corps and how much things broke Keenum’s way last year. It turned around more quickly than I expected in Denver, but I think his performance going forward will be closer to what we saw on Sunday than what it was in 2017.

The Bills are not going to score a touchdown all season

Probably not.

2018 Season Preview: Part Two

On Tuesday I went through every division and broke down what record I expected every team to finish at. Today I’ll get into the other big predictions of the year, who will win the major awards. As always, these awards are as much about narrative as they are about production. You can’t just look for who will have the best season. You also have to try to predict who will have the best story to go along with their season. Which means this is somehow even more random and pointless than Tuesday’s predictions.

Oh, and if you’re into that sort of thing I also have a Super Bowl prediction at the bottom.

Let’s just get football started already.

Awards

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns

Other possibilities: Sam Darnold, Calvin Ridley, Saquon Barkley

Everyone is still desperately searching for some spark of life in Cleveland, and this may finally be the year that it arrives. They have torn down their roster and reshaped it with an absurd quantity of young talent, and now it’s time to plug in their most recent savior at the quarterback position. Mayfield is currently stuck on the bench, but that won’t last long, only until Hue Jackson starts feeling the seat getting hot beneath him. And while he won’t light the world on fire when he eventually takes over, he will avoid being an embarrassment to the franchise, which will make him stand out against all the other young quarterbacks the Browns have trotted out over the years.

Currently the only rookie quarterback who has earned a starting spot is Darnold, and he’ll have the edge when it comes to counting stats at the end of the year. But the talent around him is not as good as it is in Cleveland, and he has more room to grow before he’s truly ready to play at an NFL level. There will be some ugly games—sub 50% completion with three or four interceptions—and that will be enough to keep him out of the running for this award, even though I’d still take his long term upside over Mayfield’s.

As much quarterback talent as there was in this year’s draft, I have to imagine one of them is going to take home the award. The path to the starting role is a bit shaky for both Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen is in the worst situation of any quarterback in the league. Should all the quarterbacks falter, the best bet for the skill positions are Ridley and Barkley.

Ridley will be a key piece in a high flying offense in Atlanta, and if he can have a few big games in high profile matchups he could swing the conversation his way. Barkley is an early favorite, and his habit of making explosive plays that show up on every highlight will keep him in it. But people are expecting too much from the Giants, and as they wallow through another disappointing year some of the dissent will inevitably turn against their talented but undisciplined running back.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers

Other possibilities: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Bradley Chubb, Josh Jackson

James does everything for a defense that has the potential to jump into the conversation among the best in the league. He will snag a few interceptions playing over the deep middle, make some hard hits coming up in run defense, and impress shutting down tight ends in man to man coverage. He has the potential to fill up the stat sheet, and provided no one else stacks up big sack or interception totals he could have the most complete resume by the end of the year.

Fitzpatrick is a very similar player to James, just with more polish and less athleticism. He is probably more ready to contribute as a disciplined team defender, but he won’t fill up the highlight reel and stat sheet the way James will. He’ll also be stuck on a worse team, drawing much less praise for what might ultimately be a better rookie campaign.

I mentioned the possibility of putting up big sack or interception numbers, and the two players most suited to do this are Chubb and Jackson. Chubb was the most polished pass rusher in last year’s draft, and he’ll get plenty of opportunity to face single blocks with Von Miller terrorizing quarterbacks from the other side. If Denver’s defense leaps back to the level it was at a couple years ago, Chubb will be a big reason why.

The Packers spent their first two selections on cornerbacks this year, and either of them has a shot at the award. But if I had to put money on one, I’d actually go with their second round pick Jackson. Though he has some issues to polish before he can be truly reliable in coverage, ball skills is one area he certainly isn’t lacking in. I could easily see him snagging five or six interceptions as offenses target the occasional big play they will be able to hit over top of him, giving him a Marcus Peters like shot at the award.

Coach of the Year – Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers

Other Possibilities: Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid, Bill Belichick

This award goes to whichever coach exceeds expectations the most and ultimately makes the postseason. I have four teams rising to the playoffs after missing last year. If the Packers make it, no one will even glance at Mike McCarthy, giving all the credit (rightfully so) to the return to health of Aaron Rodgers. The health boost will also stifle some of the Bill O’Brien campaign, and John Harbaugh has been around so long that people have forgotten just how amazing a coach he is. That leaves Lynn as the favorite for this award if the Chargers do as I expect and finally play to the level of their talent to win the division.

There are a couple more outside names who could earn it if their teams fare better than I expect. Shanahan has a reputation as an offensive genius, and that will only grow if he can turn Jimmy Garoppolo into a star bright enough to carry a mediocre 49ers team into the playoffs. And Reid will get credit for boldness, after casting aside a quarterback who took him to the playoffs three straight seasons for a raw and unproven second year player. Reid’s challenge this year will be to combine player development and scheme in a way to get the most out of Pat Mahomes, and if he can do so it will be fascinating to see whether people can overlook his (mostly deserved) reputation for poor in game management to reward him for the less tangible aspects of coaching.

Also, Belichick for good measure. Because everyone knows he’s the best coach in the league, and if no one else runs away with this award he’s as good a default as any.

Comeback Player of the Year – Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Other Possibilities: Andrew Luck, JJ Watt, Odell Beckham

2017 was a brutal year for injuries, and some of the best players in the league will be coming back to full strength this year. Any one of the players listed above could take home this award (as well as some longer shots, like David Johnson or Deshaun Watson), and I went with Rodgers mostly because he’s the quarterback for a team I think will make the playoffs. When healthy Rodgers is still the best quarterback in the league, and merely playing at his normal level will be enough to win him this award. The toughest competition he will face will come from Luck, but I expect Luck to be a bit rusty, and the Colts will be out of the playoff race by the time he’s back to full strength.

Watt has missed most of the past two seasons, and it will be very interesting to see what he is and is not capable of when he finally makes it back on the field. It’s possible he gets back to his normal dominant self, but it’s also possible that his repeated back injuries have sapped his once spectacular athleticism.

Beckham is at a disadvantage because he’s a wide receiver and because his reputation across the league isn’t stellar, but he is capable of putting together a season where he leads the league in both yards and touchdowns, the sort of production that would be hard to ignore, especially if the Giants can take a leap forward and make a run at the playoffs.

Defensive Player of the Year – Joey Bosa, DE, Los Angeles Chargers

Other possibilities: Aaron Donald, Harrison Smith, Fletcher Cox

Donald is a destroyer of worlds, and his life will only be easier this season with Ndamukong Suh beside him. He’ll top double digit sacks once again, and assuming the Rams live up to expectations he should be the favorite for this award. But it’s difficult to claim it in back to back seasons, and I felt like going for someone a little off board.

People finally seem to be realizing just how incredible Smith is as a player on every level of the field. He’s a shut down safety in deep coverage, a lockdown defender matched up against tight ends and running backs, and a force against the run coming down into the box. He does whatever Mike Zimmer asks of him, and he does it at an insanely high level. If the Vikings finish at the top of the league defensively again, they are going to have some player get buzz for the award, likely either Smith or whoever produces the most sacks out of Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. Similarly, an elite defensive performance from the Eagles will bring attention to their best defensive player, though Cox will need to elevate his sack production to earn the award.

The past couple years this award has gone to a player on a team that has leapt from obscurity into the playoff mix. Two years ago it was Khalil Mack tearing offensive tackles to pieces on an otherwise miserable Raiders defense (I’m sure they’re glad to have him, and they’ll do whatever they can to keep him around for years). Last year it was Donald, doing the same stuff he’s done for years but finally on a winning team.

The player who fits the bill this year is Bosa. With double digit sacks in each of his first two seasons, he has already established himself as one of the premier defensive players in the league. He has the potential to go even further this season, elevating his count to 15 or more sacks as the Chargers race to an AFC West title. He is an elite pass rusher and just as good against the run, and this award could be a nice boost to his younger brother’s case for being the number one overall selection in next year’s draft.

MVP – Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Other possibilities: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers

The mainstays of this contest will be there as always. Brady is going to fall off one of these days, but until it happens I’m not going to bet on it. Rodgers is still lethal when he’s on the field, and the Packers will be leaning on him just as much as ever, giving him a chance to put up monster stats. And the decline of Ryan has been vastly overstated, and the MVP of two years ago could be in excellent shape for a statistical bounceback and another run at the award.

But I think this is the year that Brees finally brings home the elusive trophy. One of the best quarterbacks of all time, his rotten luck has caused him to lag behind his contemporaries when it comes to this award. Peyton Manning has five, Brady has three, and Brees is stuck at zero, despite a statistical resume that stacks up against the other two.

The story of Brees last year was mostly around his apparent decline, but that was a product of people looking at the wrong numbers. Yes, he had his lowest totals in passing yardage and touchdowns since his days in San Diego, but this drop was in volume only, and he remained an absolute terror in all the efficiency categories. He led the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and net yards per attempt. In fact, despite ranking only ninth in pass attempts he finished fourth in passing yards and led the league in passes completed.

The efficiency will still be there for Brees this year, and the volume will pick up as well. With Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games, they will lean more heavily on the pass early in the season. There will be a few more games where they have to battle down the wire, giving Brees more opportunities to air it out down the field. I could easily see him leading the league in yards again (for the eighth time in his career!), and his touchdown numbers will jump back to his usual level as well.

Super Bowl

Atlanta Falcons over New England Patriots

Two years later, the Falcons finally get their revenge.

I’d really like to pick someone else to represent the AFC, just for the sake of variety. The problem is, there’s really no one else I can talk myself into. The Steelers are the most consistent team besides the Patriots in the conference, but they have struggled against New England for years, and certain things around the team make me feel like they’re trending in the wrong direction (the change of offensive coordinator, the absence of Ryan Shazier, the prolonged holdout of Le’Veon Bell). This team seems to come up short every year, and I don’t know why 2018 would be any different.

So who else in the AFC could challenge the Patriots? The Jaguars took a good run at it last year, but I expect them to fall significantly back this season. The Chargers have the talent to give New England problems, with an elite pass rush and cornerbacks that can erase the quick throws for Brady. But outside of Philip Rivers this team has essentially no playoff experience, and it’s hard to buy into them making a run this season. More likely we’re talking a year or two down the road.

If I was given a choice of New England versus the field, I honestly don’t know which way I would go. This feels like a safe bet, picking the one consistently elite team in a weak conference.

The NFC is a completely different story. I have the Falcons, Rams, Eagles, Packers, Saints, and Vikings as the playoff representatives, and I could honestly see any of these teams going on a run and making the Super Bowl. The toughest pick would probably be Green Bay, as the one team that has the most ways it could lose a game. Rodgers is enough to carry them to a victory against any opponent, but asking him to do it for three straight games is tough, when the other five representatives outmatch the Packers at virtually every other position.

The Rams and the Vikings are two teams that are loaded with talent that I can’t bring myself to pick because of the quarterbacks. Either Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins can play well enough to ride these talented rosters far into the playoffs, but with the exception of last season the general rule in the playoffs is to bet on the more reliable quarterback. And even despite Carson Wentz’s MVP caliber performance a year ago, I’m going to lump him in with this group as well. It is extremely difficult to repeat as Super Bowl representatives, and I think the Eagles will miss out on a lot of the good breaks they got a year ago (most notably home field advantage).

That leaves a pair of bitter rivals in the Falcons and the Saints. New Orleans has my pick for MVP, a lot of talented offensive weapons, and some good young defenders who could pull together to form an above average unit. But just as I picked the Falcons to win the division, I have to stick with them to pull out the conference victory as well. They are deeper and more experienced than the Saints, and they are my pick for the best team in the NFC in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Atlanta should have won the Super Bowl two years ago. They outplayed the Patriots in every way in that game and needed several ridiculously bad breaks to blow their massive lead. In the two years since though, these teams have gone in opposite directions. The Patriots have lost several key contributors from their last championship roster, most notably Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler. The Falcons haven’t added a lot of new talent, but they have grown in experience, now sending out a defense that measures up against the best in the league. They are top to bottom the most complete roster in the NFL, and I think this year the franchise will finally grab the elusive Super Bowl title.