AFC South Preview

Here it is, the second division of my NFL preview. Today (as the title suggests) I'm taking a look at the AFC South, likely the worst division in football. If you read my first post, you have the general idea of what I'm doing and can skip past the italicized text. If not, go ahead and read it so you know what I'm looking at for each team.

I will break down each of these teams individually. I will start by listing reasons for this team to be excited and then reasons for them to be nervous, looking at the possible upsides and potential downsides of these rosters. I will then identify the rookie from their draft class who I think will make the most immediate impact. This doesn’t mean that I think these rookies will have the best long term careers, just that they will contribute the most this season. I will then identify one player to watch on each team. In some cases this will be a superstar who doesn’t receive the proper attention. In others it will be a player who I think is ready for a breakout season. And some will be players who could be great or could be disasters, players whose performance will play a major role in deciding their team’s season.

After that I will give a general prediction for each of these teams. I won’t try to predict their final records (with the randomness of a 16 game season this can only make me look like an idiot) but I will order the teams based on how I believe they will finish in the division, from first to last as you read. I will also try to address how these teams are set up long term, but my primary focus is on the 2014 season.

Indianapolis Colts

Reason to be excited: Superstardom of Andrew Luck

Luck was fantastic his rookie season, and he only got better last year. His quarterback rating, completion percentage, and touchdown percentage all went up, and his sacks and interception totals both went down. He will continue to progress this year, with the help of an improved stable of weapons on the outside. TY Hilton is ready to develop into a Pro Bowl level wide receiver, and they made a couple of high upside additions at the receiver position this offseason. Dwayne Allen is back healthy, giving them one of the best tight end pairs in the league. This is the year that Luck becomes the player we have known for years he was going to be. He should be in the MVP conversation at the end of the season.

Reason to be nervous: Defense

This is a pretty big reason to be nervous, and it’s the one thing holding Indianapolis back from being Super Bowl contenders. They just don’t have that much talent on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t expect Robert Mathis will be able to repeat his performance from last season even when he returns from suspension, and they have no one else capable of bringing a consistent pass rush. Vontae Davis is their best defensive player on some days and their worst on others. Besides that, they have no one capable of performing at a level above average. The decision to trade away their first round pick this year cost them the opportunity to add talent to this side of the ball, and they will be stuck with a vulnerable defense for the next few seasons.

Impact Rookie: Donte Moncrief

The Colts traded their first round pick last year for Trent Richardson, an undisputed mistake. Because of this they weren’t able to add a player until the fifty-ninth selection. But they may have found a steal in the third round in Donte Moncrief, a big, fast wide receiver out of Ole Miss. With Hilton already in place, Reggie Wayne coming back from his knee injury, and Hakeem Nicks added through free agency, he will struggle to find playing time in an offense that is bizarrely run-happy. But I expect he will see more playing time as the season wears on and they start to run more four receiver sets. Until then he will still be able to contribute as a kick returner.

Player to Watch: Dwayne Allen

I originally wanted to write about the resurgence of Hakeem Nicks, but so far I have heard nothing but negative things about him at training camp. So I will instead write about another addition to their offensive attack, third year tight end Dwayne Allen who is returning after losing all of last season to a hip injury. Fellow third year player Coby Fleener gets more attention, but during their rookie season Allen was by far the better player. He will never be an elite threat in the passing game, but he does enough as a receiver to justify keeping him on the field, where he offers incredible production as one of the best blocking tight ends in the league. I don’t think his return will be enough to rescue Indianapolis’s anemic running game, but it might stop it from sinking the team’s fortunes.

Prediction:

I expect the Colts to take a small step back this season. Two of their biggest contributors, Wayne and Mathis, are reaching the ends of their careers, and they are short on young players who could step up to take their places. They’ve coasted to double digit wins the past two years based on a weak division and some good fortune, and this year I expect both of these things to regress to the mean. That said, I still think they will win the division, based largely on their supremacy at the quarterback position. Once they make the playoffs, it might be possible for Luck to carry them to the Super Bowl, but I expect this team to exit either in the first or the second round.

Houston Texans

Reason to be excited: JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney

I’m not even an NFL quarterback, and I’m terrified for my life. By now Watt has a well deserved reputation as the best defender in the league, but however good you think he is, he’s actually better. Last season his greatness was often overlooked thanks to the terrible record of their team, when he showed that even one of the greatest defensive football players of all time cannot carry a team on his back. He’ll be his normal great self this season, and for the first time he’ll have someone to match his talent joining him on defense. Clowney is one of the most spectacularly talented pass rushers to enter the league in years, blending remarkable athleticism with versatile technique. He’ll likely face an adjustment period as he slides to outside linebacker and is forced to play standing up, and it will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel utilizes his two stars. When they work together to get after the quarterback, I’m not sure if anything will be able to stop them.

Reason to be nervous: Offense

Is it possible to keep Houston's defense on the field for every play this season? I don’t think their offense will be terrible, but it isn’t going to be pleasant. Ryan Fitzpatrick is their starter for now, until the fans and the coaches get sick of his reckless mediocrity and decide to throw Tom Savage to the wolves. Andre Johnson is getting up there in years, and DeAndre Hopkins will need to take a major step forward after a so-so rookie campaign. It will be interesting to see how Arian Foster fares under the new coaches. There is a well established pattern of running backs struggling after leaving Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme, and Foster was starting to slow down already over the past couple years. I could very easily see Houston struggling to move the ball offensively, putting tremendous pressure on their defense.

Impact Rookie: Louis Nix

Clowney is the obvious answer, but I think his transition to linebacker will give him enough trouble to slow the start of his career. By the end of the season he should be a dominant force, but until then I think they will receive the greatest contribution from Nix, a defensive tackle they took in the third round. Nix was a first round talent who fell because his position is no longer greatly valued in the NFL. He is a run stuffing force in the middle that lacks the athleticism or the moves to dominate as a pass rusher, and he likely projects as only a two down player. But he should be able to slide into that role almost immediately, and even if he never develops further he will be a useful player in the middle of Houston’s defense.

Player to Watch: Brian Cushing

Watch what you can of Cushing, because there’s a decent chance you won’t have many opportunities. Injuries limited Cushing to twelve games over the past two seasons, but in those twelve games he was one of the most impressive inside linebackers in the NFL. Had he stayed healthy we likely would be talking about him in the same category we discuss Luke Keuchly and Navarro Bowman, but instead he is just another Sean Lee. If he can stay healthy and play at the level he was at before the injuries, he gives Houston another devastating force on their defense, someone to take advantage of the double teams drawn by Watt and Clowney. If he can’t contribute as he used to, Houston is going to be stuck fielding a dangerously thin defense behind their two superstars.

Prediction:

Houston is definitely on the upswing, but I think they will need a couple more years before they are ready to contend. Their offense needs completely retooled, and they are probably a few pieces away from being dominant enough on defense to carry the team.Four games against Jacksonville and Tennessee should keep them in the playoff mix in the weak AFC, though I expect them to fall a few games short of a Wild Card slot. They need to figure out something to do at the quarterback position long term, but there are also quite a few other holes that need filled. I think they have one or two more years to make a run at Indianapolis for the division title before being surpassed by the teams below them.

Tennessee Titans

Reason to be excited: Receiving Corps

Tennessee has assembled one of the more intriguing wide receiver corps in the league. Veteran Nate Washington has put together a long, solid career since coming over from Pittsburgh, and for the first time the Titans have actually surrounded him with some intriguing young talent. Kendall Wright had a fantastic second year last season, and he should only be better as he develops a more complete understanding of the game. Justin Hunter flashed at times during his rookie season, and if he can develop route running skills to go along with his size, speed, and leaping ability, he could be something truly special. It is very possible that by the end of the season we are talking about Tennessee as one of the five best receiver groups in the league. The only thing that could hold them back is the player throwing them the ball.

Reason to be nervous: Jake Locker

This is a make or break season for Locker, and I’m pretty sure he is going to break. Through his first three seasons he has shown very little to suggest that he could be a high quality starter in the NFL. He rarely moves past his second read, and even when he does find an open receiver, he struggles to place the ball on target. He is injury prone, and he is entering the final year of his contract. Tennessee has decided to stick with him for now, but I don’t expect he will start more than ten more games in a Titans uniform. By the midpoint of the season I expect we will place him in the same category as fellow 2011 draftees Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.

Impact Rookie: Bishop Sankey

Sankey is a reasonable pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. There is no one blocking his path to the starting role, and he will be placed behind an offensive line that could develop into a solid unit. He is capable of contributing both as a runner and a receiver, and head coach Ken Whisenhunt will find a way to get the most out of him, much as he did with Danny Woodhead last year in San Diego. I’m not convinced that Sankey can carry the full load of a starting tailback, but he will probably have to for as long as Locker is still the starting quarterback in Tennessee.

Player to Watch: Jurrell Casey

Casey broke out last year, and this year he should finally receive the attention he didn’t get last season. He tied for the league lead in sacks by a defensive tackle and was far and away the best player on Tennessee’s roster. With a bevy of young talent on that side of the ball, he could very easily lead a resurgence that pushes the Titans into playoff contention. The one concern I have is that with the change in coaching staffs, Tennessee has decided to move to a 3-4 scheme, forcing Casey to move out to defensive end. He will do less penetrating this season, and it is difficult to say how easy the transition will be for him. If defensive coordinator Ray Horton (one of the better coordinators in the league) allows him some leeway in how he plays the position, he could find success. But if Casey is trapped in a more traditional 3-4 scheme, he could be in store for a disappointing season.

Prediction:

The Titans aren’t a terrible team, but they will be held back by their quarterback. Even if they realize that Locker can’t play early in the season, they lack a reliable veteran behind him that they can trust to lead the team. Charlie Whitehurst will likely start several games for them, and rookie Zach Mettenberger will get a shot too. If one of them can surprise and perform well, this could be a dangerous offense. But I think it is much more likely that they will wallow in mediocrity on both sides of the ball, eventually winding up with a draft pick somewhere in the mid-teens. Down the road it will be interesting to see whether they try to invest in a new quarterback next year or give Mettenberger a chance to show why he was once considered a first round prospect.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Reason to be excited: Offensive Youth

Young talent is always fun in the NFL. It is exciting to watch players develop, to have high hopes and to see how those hopes pan out. And on the offensive side of the ball, Jacksonville is loaded with young talent. At wide receiver they have rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, as well as second year players Denard Robinson and Ace Sanders. Luke Joeckel is healthy and ready to slide in at left tackle. Blake Bortles will see the field this season, and he looked promising during his first couple preseason games. It is impossible to say whether these players will perform up to expectations and shape the roster for years down the road, but for the first time in years the Jaguars actually have genuine reasons to feel hope.

Reason to be nervous: Lack of Skilled Veterans

Jacksonville has a lot of young players who can contribute, but they lack the sort of established talent a team needs to turn things around. Their roster last year was an utter black hole, and adding rookies doesn’t help if there is no base of talent already in place. Most of their top draft picks this season were on the offensive side of the ball, and the additions they made through free agency on defense will not be able to save that unit. Chris Clemons and Red Bryant were solid contributors as the ninth and tenth best players on Seattle’s defense, but in Jacksonville they will be asked to be the heart and soul of a unit that doesn’t have anything else. The Jaguars went for a full scale teardown (not that there was much to tear down) and they will have to suffer until their young players are ready to carry the team.

Impact Rookie: Marqise Lee

Lee has had a tumultuous start to his rookie season, including receiving public criticism from his head coach about his work ethic. But I still believe that by the end of the season he will be one of the more productive rookie receivers in the NFL. He doesn’t have the size or athleticism of someone like Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans, but he was far and away the most polished wide receiver in the 2014 draft class. His last season at USC was a disappointment due to injuries, but if he can stay healthy in Jacksonville he will quickly become their top target in the passing game.

Player to Watch: Johnathan Cyprien

Earlier I mentioned that the majority of Jacksonville’s young talent is on the offensive side of the ball. Cyprien is the exception to that. A safety drafted in the second round last year, he was one of the few bright spots on a team that was generally miserable all around. He brings a shock of speed to a defense that is comprised mainly of old and slow veterans, flying across the field and making tackles all over the place. He still has some work to do in pass coverage, and I’m not sure if he can develop into anything more than an above average starter. But he is a fine piece for Jacksonville to build around as they revamp their defense.

Prediction:

Jacksonville is another team with promise, and I think that in two or three years the AFC South will be one of the most competitive divisions in football. For now, teams like Jacksonville will have to settle for fighting for the bottom spot. The only way the Jaguars make a run for the playoffs is if Bortles has an Andrew Luck level rookie season, something I very much doubt will happen. This is still a bad football team, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them drafting in the top ten next season. I would be shocked if they end up in the top five again, and I think that in two years they will be in position to compete for the playoffs.

NFC South Preview

The first game of the NFL season is 23 days away, which means it is long past time for me to start my preview series. I will be trying to get two divisions done each weak, hopefully having htem all finished before the Packers-Seahawks game to open the season. Today, I will start with the NFC South.

I will break down each of these teams individually. I will start by listing reasons for this team to be excited and then reasons for them to be nervous, looking at the possible upsides and potential downsides of these rosters. I will then identify the rookie from their draft class who I think will make the most immediate impact. This doesn’t mean that I think these rookies will have the best long term careers, just that they will contribute the most this season. I will then identify one player to watch on each team. In some cases this will be a superstar who doesn’t receive the proper attention. In others it will be a player who I think is ready for a breakout season. And some will be players who could be great or could be disasters, players whose performance will play a major role in deciding their team’s season.

After that I will give a general prediction for each of these teams. I won’t try to predict their final records (with the randomness of a 16 game season this can only make me look like an idiot) but I will order the teams based on how I believe they will finish in the division, from first to last as you read. I will also try to address how these teams are set up long term, but my primary focus is on the 2014 season.

New Orleans Saints

Reason to be excited: Defensive Improvements

For the first time in several years New Orleans is going into a season with a defense that isn’t an utter joke. After surrendering more yards than any defense in history two years ago, they hired Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator and switched over to a 3-4 scheme. This change led to the breakout of Cameron Jordan, yet another extraordinary defensive talent from the 2011 draft (Seriously, look that draft up. It’s incredible.) Safety Kenny Vaccaro was one of the best rookies in the league last year, and the addition of Jairus Byrd gives them one of the strongest secondaries in the NFL. They still lack an elite edge pass rusher, but Ryan is creative enough to generate tremendous pressure with the players he has to work with.

Reason to be nervous: Pass Rush

As I mentioned above, they don’t have anyone who can get after the quarterback from the edge. Jordan is a great player as a 5-technique defensive end, but with the exception of JJ Watt, players at this position cannot generate the sort of consistent pressure to support a defense. They need one of their outside linebackers to step up and take advantage of the double teams drawn by Jordan, and I don’t see a player on their roster capable of doing that. They managed last year thanks to twelve sacks from Junior Galette, but he is bound to come back to earth this year. Byrd is one of the best cover safeties in the league, but he won’t be able to produce his typical game altering plays without the pass rush he had in Buffalo. As promising as New Orleans’s secondary is, they can’t hold up forever.

Impact Rookie: Brandin Cooks

Count me among the multitudes who believe Brandin Cooks will have a fantastic rookie season. Smaller, quicker receivers who excel in the slot usually transition to the NFL better than their larger counterparts, and no one in this year’s class fits that mold as well as Cooks. Add in being a more polished route runner than most rookie receivers, an elite quarterback to throw to him, and one of the best offensive minds in the game as his head coach, and I have full confidence that Cooks can compete for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Cooks is versatile enough to slide right into the role of the departed Darren Sproles, and it won’t take long for him to surpass that and become New Orleans’s number three option at wide receiver.

Player to Watch: Keenan Lewis

I talked about the New Orleans secondary above, but I didn’t mention their cornerback position. On one side they have Patrick Robinson, a former first round pick who is a passable starter. On the other side they have Keenan Lewis, one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Lewis didn’t do much during his first three seasons in Pittsburgh, but he broke out his final year there before leaving as a free agent for New Orleans. Early season struggles convinced most people that he was just a one year wonder, but he came on strong by the end of the year, looking like a top ten cornerback as New Orleans made its late season playoff push. I don’t think he has what it takes to be an elite corner on the level of Revis, Peterson, Sherman, or Haden, but I believe by the end of the year we will put him in the second tier with players like Talib and Verner.

Prediction:

After a couple down years, New Orleans is once again the favorite in the NFC South. They have a strong stable of weapons for Brees to attack with, and their defense is finally competent, with the potential to be above average. This team still has flaws—pass rush and offensive line stand out—but the talent at other places on their roster should allow them to compensate for these issues. They will win the division without trouble, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a run at the Super Bowl. They have gone all in on these next three seasons, and if they don't bring home a championship in that time it will be considered a disappointment.

Atlanta Falcons

Reason to be excited: Health

As happens every year, there were a number of teams last season who were derailed by injuries. But none suffered quite as bad as Atlanta. The losses of Julio Jones, William Moore, and Sean Weatherspoon robbed them of three of their best players for most of the season, and the hobbling of Roddy White and Steven Jackson took away two of their most experienced offensive players. This year these players are back healthy (with the exception of Weatherspoon, who will miss the entire season after tearing his Achilles) and they should be closer to the team they were in 2012 than the one they were in 2013.

Reason to be nervous: Weakness Up Front

The injuries received all the attention last year, but it could be argued that they weren’t as significant as the general lack of talent on the line on both sides of the ball, a problem they’ve faced for years. Matt Ryan’s sack numbers have increased each year of his career, reaching a staggering 44 last season. Only Chicago and Jacksonville produced fewer sacks on defense last season, and only Chicago allowed opposing running backs more yards per carry (Chicago’s defensive front was really, really, really bad.) Atlanta’s moves this offseason suggest that they understand these shortcomings, bringing in free agent players like Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai that suggest a transition in defensive philosophy. They also spent their first two selections on lineman, though second round pick Ra’Shede Hagman has had a rocky training camp. Fortunately, their first round pick appears ready to make an immediate impact.

Impact Rookie: OT Jake Matthews

It is incredibly difficult for a rookie offensive lineman to find success in the NFL. We have been spoiled by years of players like Joe Thomas, Jake Long, and Matt Kalil playing at Pro Bowl levels from the moment they enter the league. More often than not, rookies end up like the top linemen last year, struggling through a season of adjusting to the schemes and physicality of the NFL. But if there is any offensive lineman this year who can make an immediate impact, it is Matthews. He is a solid all around player with experience playing both sides of the line, meaning he won’t have to face the same awkward transition when asked to play right tackle like Fisher, Joeckel, and Johnson did last year. He should help stabilize their weak offensive line, giving Jackson room to run and Ryan time to throw.

Player to Watch: CB Desmond Trufant

Trufant had a sneakily good rookie year last season, and he is going to be asked to do even more this year. Cornerback may be the most difficult position to transition from college to the NFL, and even with Trufant’s success as a rookie he likely still has a lot of room to improve this year. He has good size and excellent speed, and he has good ball skills even if he doesn’t produce a lot of interceptions. Atlanta has no pass rush to speak of, and if they want to stop teams from throwing all over them they will have to play tight coverage across the board. Trufant’s growth will be essential to the success of their defense this year.

Prediction:

Atlanta will be better than last season, and they should be in competition for one of the Wild Card spots. But this is still a team with a very slim margin for error, without the safety blanket of Tony Gonzalez they’ve relied upon for years. We’ve already started to see the decline of Roddy White and Steven Jackson, and if this offense degrades to just Matt Ryan and Julio Jones they will not be able to score enough points to make up for their weaknesses on defense. I don’t think they will fall into the top ten of the draft like they did last year, but I think it is highly likely that they end up drifting around .500 and missing the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Reason to be excited: Offensive Weapons

Tampa Bay has sneakily put together one of the best units of offensive weapons in the NFL. Vincent Jackson has been underrated for years, and I expect a strong bounceback from Doug Martin after his injury plagued 2013 season. Adding Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the draft has given them an impressive collection of young, athletic talent (even more so in the unlikely event that Chris Owusu stays healthy.) Josh McCown put together a surprising run last year surrounded by a similar cast of talent in Chicago, and with Tampa Bay’s defense this offense doesn’t even need to do that much. A couple fantastic plays a game will be enough to generate the points to stay ahead of their opposition.

Reason to be nervous: Quarterback

Does anyone actually believe Josh McCown can lead a team to the playoffs? I doubt even Lovie Smith does. McCown is here to hold a place for a year while they figure out some non-Glennon option at the position, likely a pick early in next year’s draft. As good as McCown was last year, I’d bet on him being closer to the player he was in his previous 27 starts. The weapons he has in Tampa Bay are still a year or two away from being what he had in Chicago, and his offensive line isn’t nearly as good. I don’t expect he’ll be the starting quarterback through the entire season, and I don’t think Mike Glennon will be a better option.

Impact Rookie: Mike Evans

Seferian-Jenkins has a lot of potential, but of the two Evans is much more ready to contribute immediately. This isn’t to say that I believe he will have a fantastic rookie season. He’ll make some plays, but I don’t think he can be counted on for any sort of consistent production. The transition will take some time for him, as it will for most of the rookies they drafted. This team is built to win in two or three years, once their offensive weapons have developed and their quarterback situation is figured out. Until then, they’ll have to do with the occasional physical dominance of their first round selection.

Player to Watch: Lavonte David

This is the year that everyone figures out how great Lavonte David is. I hope so, at least. David is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, and he should have received consideration for Defensive Player of the Year last season. Instead, he didn’t even make the Pro Bowl. This is the nature of playing outside linebacker in the 4-3, always being overshadowed by players in the 3-4 who collect sacks playing a position that has few similarities besides the name. One of the few 4-3 outside linebackers to receive recognition in recent years is Lance Briggs, the player who manned the position for Lovie Smith in Chicago. Now that Smith is in Tampa Bay, David will become the new (and maybe improved) version of Briggs. He will fly all over the field, creating havoc as a run stuffer and a pass defender. He won’t be ask to blitz as much as in recent years, which is a shame, but hopefully his dominance in these other areas will earn him the widespread recognition he deserves.

Prediction:

Tampa Bay may have the most complete roster in the division, but the quarterback position will hold them back. They’ll win some games on the strength of their defense and their offensive playmakers, and they might be able to compete for a Wild Card spot. But unless McCown can repeat his performance from last year, they don’t have a chance of winning this competitive division. They have a good foundation, and if they can figure something out at the quarterback position they can compete as early as next year.

Carolina Panthers 

Reason to be excited: Defensive Front

The strength of the team last year will be the strength of the team this year. Luke Keuchly received all the attention (and the Defensive Player of the Year Award) but a strong case could be made that Greg Hardy was their best player last season. He is one of the few elite pass rushers who is just as good against the run, and his ability to bounce inside and play defensive tackle gives them even more versatility in their pass rush. The rest of their defensive line is strong as well. Charles Johnson is known best for his wretchedly awful contract, but he is still an above average defensive end. Defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short will only be better in their second season, and with their linebacker pair they have the best front six in the NFL. They lost a number of pieces in their secondary this offseason, but with the strength up front they have reason to believe that those pieces are easily replaced.

Reason to be nervous: Veteran Losses

These past few years it almost seemed as if Steve Smith and Jordan Gross had been with the Panthers since the team’s expansion season. Both were consistent and reliable players at their position for more than a decade, and Carolina never really found reason to invest in young talent at these positions. Gross’s retirement didn’t surprise anyone, but Smith’s trade demand certainly did. Suddenly the two positions of reliable strength turned into gaping holes, and with their lack of cap space there was little they could do to address these issues. They drafted the incredibly raw Kelvin Benjamin to replace Smith, and it’s looking like last season’s right tackle Byron Bell will take over for Gross. These are hardly reasons to be optimistic for this season.

Impact Rookie: Trai Turner

Right now it appears that two rookies are in position to start for the Panthers. Kelvin Benjamin will be one of their starting receivers, but I don’t think he is polished enough to succeed immediately in the NFL. I think they will get more production from Turner, their likely starter at right guard. Turner is massive at 320 pounds, though his short stature will prevent him from providing any help at left tackle. But he should be able to help their line at guard, clearing space for their running game much as he did at LSU these past couple years. Carolina is already one of the best short yardage running teams in the league, and putting Turner beside All Pro center Ryan Kalil will make them even stronger up the middle.

Player to Watch: Thomas Davis

Keuchly received all the attention last year, but their other starting linebacker had a breakout season as well (Carolina very rarely played with three linebackers on the field.) Davis is a former first round pick who was considered a disappointment until last year, when he developed into maybe the best pass covering linebackers in the league. He takes care of tight ends running up the seams and running backs coming out of the backfield, and his abilities in the passing game should help them cover for the players they lost in their defensive backfield.

Prediction:

Carolina is in a bad situation. They put together a great run last year, and many fans no doubt hope to see a repeat this season. But this team just does not have the talent to make the playoffs in the stacked NFC. They have too many bad contracts on their roster, preventing them from retaining their own players as well as signing outside their team. I expect them to backslide this year, to finish fourth in their division and make no real run at the playoffs. Ron Rivera may very well lose his job, though I don’t think that will be warranted. They’re stuck with DeAngello Williams and Jonathan Stewart for two more years at least, but after this year they should be able to move on from Charles Johnson. A bad season will set them up with a good draft pick so they can start to build around Cam Newton.

Fatal Flaws

Every NFL team is in the midst of training camp, which means this is a time of unbridled positivity across the league. Every starter is in the best shape of his life, and seventh round draft picks are emerging across the league to fill the holes in otherwise stellar rosters. Every team has a chance at the Super Bowl right now, and fans are buzzing with the anticipation of a promising season.

There’s very little in this world I love more than inserting a shot of pessimistic reality into an atmosphere of positivity. Right now there are thirteen teams with better than 40/1 odds of winning the Super Bowl, teams everyone agrees have a legitimate shot. I looked over the rosters of these teams, and I identified the one flaw that will keep each of these teams from winning the Super Bowl.

Before you get too outraged by the comments I’ve made about your favorite teams, understand that I’m taking things a bit over the top. I would be stunned if anyone other than these thirteen teams (excluding Carolina) won the Super Bowl. There’s no such thing as a perfect team, and one of these thirteen (excluding Carolina) will find a way to cover their flaw well enough to pull out a Super Bowl victory.

Pittsburgh Steelers 33/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Pass defense

A few years ago the Steelers defense was declared “old and slow” by a number of pundits, and it’s looking like they may finally be right. Pittsburgh faltered last year because their defense could no longer keep up in the passing or the running game, and while offseason additions may help them stuff the run, they haven’t done much to help themselves against the pass. Their starting cornerbacks will be the ghost of Ike Taylor and the eternal potential of Cortez Allen. Their only hopes for a pass rush are second year player Jarvis Jones, who had a grand total of one sack during his rookie season, and Jason Worilds, a player who was considered a r disappointment until he put together a surprising run late last season. Right now they have no one who has shown the ability to generate consistent pressure and no one who can lock down receivers on the outside. Their offense is good, but they aren’t good enough to keep up with what a good passing attack will do to their defense.

Detroit Lions 33/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Coaching

Detroit is the only team on this list replacing their head coach, after Jim Schwarz’s antagonistic ineptitude torpedoed their season last year. They absolutely needed an upgrade at that position, but instead they decided to go with Jim Caldwell. For those of you unfamiliar with Caldwell’s work, here are his career win totals as the head coach of the Colts: 14, 10, 2. His team worsened each year he was in charge, going from a Super Bowl contender to the top overall selection in a span of three years. A major part of this was the loss of Peyton Manning to injury, but there is never an excuse for a team to win only two games in a season. Since being fired for that debacle, Caldwell spent a season and a half as the offensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. Last year—his only full season as an NFL coordinator—he oversaw the worst season of Joe Flacco’s career and a historically bad running game. The Lions haven’t had a quality head coach since Wayne Fontes, and it looks like they’re going to have to wait another couple of years.

Carolina Panthers 33/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Don’t get me started…

Let me make one thing perfectly clear: these odds are ridiculous. Carolina does not belong among the top thirteen teams in the league. They don’t belong among the top twenty teams in the league. They had a good season last year, but they aren’t going to repeat it. Their wide receiving corps is filled with a bunch of third options rejected by the rest of the league, and they have absolutely no one to play left tackle. Their best defensive lineman is facing league discipline, and they lost multiple starters from their secondary. This team might have a shot a few years down the road once they get out from under their more onerous contracts, but this coming season they have no chance to win the Super Bowll

Atlanta Falcons 33/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Depth

Hey Atlanta fans, how do you feel about an encore? Last season the Falcons were crippled by their lack of depth, as injuries forced them to fill out their starting units with players that likely shouldn’t have even been on an NFL roster. This is one of the downsides of trading multiple draft picks to move up and select players like Sam Baker and Julio Jones. When they get hurt, it’s like losing four or five players. With them back maybe fans could hope for a return to the success of 2012. But already they’ve suffered another loss, losing their best defensive player Sean Weatherspoon to a torn Achilles. And now they’re stuck with the same garbage behind him they had to suffer through last season. Another injury or two (inevitable in the NFL) and their entire season will go the same route it did last year.

Philadelphia Eagles 25/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Offensive limitations

Most people look at Philadelphia and identify defense as their weakness, but they put the pieces together on that side of the ball last season. They won’t be a great unit, but they have far and away the best defense in the NFC East. A bigger concern is on the offensive side of the ball, specifically with the loss of DeSean Jackson. Their offense was a juggernaut last year as the NFL scrambled to adjust to Chip Kelly’s schemes, but now that defensive coordinators have had an offseason to scheme the Eagles will have to find other ways to succeed. The problem is that their offensive skill players all do pretty much the same thing. Maclin, McCoy, Sproles, and even Cooper all do their best work underneath and in the middle of the field. Jackson was the only player they had who could stretch downfield, and without him defenses will be able to bring everyone up to the line to stuff their quick attacking offense.

Indianapolis Colts 16/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Pass rush

Their running game is garbage, but it’s easier to survive without a rushing attack than it is without a pass rush. No team was as one dimensional with their pass rush last year as the Colts were. Robert Mathis was all they had, and now he’s facing a suspension to start the year. In the terrible NFC South this shouldn’t hurt their playoff chances, but unless they develop someone across from Mathis they will have no hope of getting pressure on quarterbacks. Bjoern Werner showed absolutely nothing after being taken in the first round last year. Cory Redding has averaged just under three sacks a season for his career, making him the second most prolific pass rusher on their roster. Their secondary isn’t good enough to shut anyone down, and the quarterbacks they will face in the playoffs will be able to stand in the pocket for as long they want.

Chicago Bears 16/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Defense

This is a weird one. Normally it’s the offense holding Chicago back, but with Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and an improving offensive line, they have the firepower to score with anyone in the league. Last year it was their defense that did them in, and it will be the same story this year. It’s not just one part of their defense either, with vulnerabilities at all levels. Lamarr Houston was a great addition up front, but he can’t do enough to save the disaster that was their defensive line last year. Lance Briggs is barely mobile these days, and Jon Bostic did essentially nothing his rookie year. Their worst position last year was at safety, and while you have to give them credit for trying, I don’t put much faith in the additions of Ryan Mundy, Adrian Wilson, MD Jennings, and Brock Vereen. Chicago’s offense can score a lot of points, and they’re going to have to if they want to win this season.

New Orleans Saints 14/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Offensive Line

No quarterback needs an offensive line more than Drew Brees. His height has been an issue throughout his career, an issue Sean Payton managed to solve by putting together one of the best lines in the NFL. There was a time when the Saints had the two best guards in the league and Brees never had to worry about pressure in his face, but that time is long gone. Jahri Evans is not the player he used to be, and Ben Grubbs was a disappointing replacement for Carl Nicks. They’re likely to go with second year player Terron Armstead at left tackle, who struggled mightily when forced into a starting role last season. His one notable attribute is speed, running the same 40 yard dash as the wide receiver drafted directly after him, Keenan Allen. Huh, maybe we shouldn’t use 40 yard dash times as the only way to judge a player’s value.

Green Bay Packers 11/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Run Defense

The Packers have managed solid numbers against the run the past few years by not allowing themselves to be gashed by mediocre teams. But any team with a quality rushing attack can move the ball on the Packers without trouble, and has been able to for the past few years. BJ Raji is still traumatized by what Colin Kaepernick did to him two years ago, and AJ Hawk has seemingly been in decline since he entered the league. They improved at safety with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, but he’s slow enough in run support that he rarely makes a tackle within eight yards of the line of scrimmage. Julius Peppers is still a good run defender, but if they insist on playing him as a stand up linebacker his tall frame and limited mobility will make it easy for blockers to get beneath his pads and push him around. The only hope Green Bay has is that it can make it through the playoffs without facing Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle, or their usual nemesis San Francisco. Good luck with that.

New England Patriots 9/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Tom Brady

If I had any readers who were Patriots fans (or any readers in general) they would probably rip me to shreds for this. Tom Brady is above reproach after all. Never mind that last year was the worst season of his career since 2006. Never mind that his completion percentage has dropped each of the past four seasons, as has his touchdown percentage. Never mind that his yards per attempt dropped below seven last season for only the second time since 2004. Everyone blames this on his receiving corps, and that’s undoubtedly part of the problem. But maybe the decline of age that everyone has been expecting from Peyton Manning has caught Tom Brady first. As we saw last year, the brilliance of Bill Belichick is enough to get them deep into the playoffs, but without top quality Brady they won’t be winning any Super Bowls.

San Francisco 49ers 7/1

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Secondary

San Francisco has some good safeties. Antoine Bethea is an upgrade of Donte Whitner, and Eric Reed was one of the better rookies in the NFL last year. But there’s one thing these two can’t do, and that’s play in coverage against wide receivers. In fact, I’m not sure there’s a single player on San Francisco’s roster that can play in coverage against wide receivers. Chris Cook has twenty-nine career starts and no interceptions. Tramaine Brock was a liability as a third cornerback last year. Chris Culliver could barely keep up with receivers before he tore his ACL. With Justin Smith slowly wearing down and Aldon Smith’s availability always up in the air, their pass rush won’t be enough to take pressure off their secondary. Unless first round pick Jimmy Ward (another safety, for some reason) becomes an ace in the slot, quality passing teams will be able to roll over their defense.

Denver Broncos 13/2

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Age

Much has been made about Peyton Manning’s age. Even though he was the best player in the league last year, it is very possible for it to fall apart within a single year, as evidenced by Brett Favre’s 2010 season. But he may not even be the biggest age concern on the Broncos. They are relying on players well over the hill at a number of key positions, and it could easily come back to bite them. Wes Welker failed to reach even 800 yards last year, and with the loss of Eric Decker he’s going to be asked to take on a bigger role in their offense. DeMarcus Ware was brought in to add a pass rushing threat across from Von Miller, but if he suffers the same injury woes he dealt with last year in Dallas, Denver is back to the one dimensional pass rush they had last year. The Broncos have placed three players nearing the ends of their careers at crucial positions in their team, and if even one of them falters they won’t have the talent to win the Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks 13/2

Why they won’t win the Superbowl: Offensive line

The offensive line is the secret flaw of this Seahawks team. Russell Okung is an above average left tackle and Max Unger can play at a high level at center, but these two overshadow the wretchedness of their other three starters. They’ve been able to weather it for the last two seasons because of the elusiveness of Russell Wilson and the physicality of Marshawn Lynch, but this is going to catch up to them sooner or later. Lynch takes a beating every time he carries the ball, and he slowed down as the season wore on last year. Everyone seems excited about Chritine Michael, a player who couldn’t crack the active roster for most of last season. Without a productive running game the pressure on Wilson will only increase. He can’t keep running forever.

The Myth of Learning From the Bench

With training camps beginning this week, NFL teams are ready to get their first real glimpse of their rookies in a professional football setting. For most this means drills and repetitions, learning their positions and slowly working their way into more significant playing time as the season wears on. Many of the highly drafted rookies will get only ten to twenty snaps their first game, but by the end of the season most will have taken starting roles. This gradual development is the natural course of things, allowing players to develop and contribute to the team at the same time.

There is one position that doesn’t follow this course, and that happens to be the most critical position on the team. Common wisdom seems to hold that most rookie quarterbacks aren’t ready to perform in the NFL, that they need time on the bench to develop and learn the game before taking over the starting role. A quarterback can’t be slowly integrated into the gameplan like other positions, and until he’s ready to take all the responsibility there is nothing he can do to contribute.

This is an antiquated belief, living in a period when quarterbacks truly did need a few years to transition from college to the NFL. But the game has evolved at both levels, coaches in college asking their quarterbacks to do more and coaches in the NFL finding ways to succeed with less. People still cite players like Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick who developed after spending time on the bench, but there are just as many (if not more) who have succeeded after being thrust initially into a starting role, just as there are those who have failed after sitting on the bench.

In this past draft there were five quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds: Blake Bortles by Jacksonville, Johnny Manziel by Cleveland, Teddy Bridgewater by Minnesota, Derek Carr by Oakland, and Jimmy Garoppolo by New England. Garoppolo was taken as a long term project to develop behind the aging Tom Brady, but the rest were drafted to be starting quarterbacks by teams in need at the position. Many people still spout the myth that these players need to sit if they want to find success in the NFL, a position both misguided and naïve. Recent history has shown that each of these four quarterbacks will start at some point this season, and if they want to find success they should be given the starting role from the moment training camp opens.

The 2011 draft makes an interesting case study. Six quarterbacks were drafted in the first two rounds, the most of any draft since 1999. Among these six quarterbacks we saw the full spectrum of handling, players who started from day one and players who didn’t play at all their rookie season. And we have also seen a full spectrum of results, busts mixed in with superstars.

Both first overall pick Cam Newton and second rounder Andy Dalton were given the starting job the moment they walked into the building. Dalton started all four preseason games before starting Week One, and Newton only had to play with the second teamers for a single preseason week before taking over. The results were immediately apparent. Newton threw for over 400 yards in each of his first two games, and Dalton’s Bengals improved enough to reach the playoffs. Of the quarterbacks taken in 2011, Dalton and Newton are two of the three most successful, and no one will claim that their careers were damaged by starting from day one.

Two other quarterbacks played significant time their rookie season even after their coaches decided it would be best for their development to learn from the bench. With the tenth pick the Jaguars selected Blaine Gabbert, who was their starting quarterback by Week Three after two wretched starts from Luke McCown. He proceeded through a dreadful rookie season, appearing incapable of handling the speed or pressure of an NFL game.

A similar track was followed by Christian Ponder, the twelfth overall selection by the Vikings. He too was supposed to spend the season on the bench, but the incompetence and indifference of Donovan McNabb forced him into the starting role in Week Seven. He wasn’t ready to play in the NFL, but he was no more unready than if he had started Week One. He had a couple up and down seasons before losing his starting position.

The other quarterback selected in the first round was Jake Locker, taken by the Titans number eight overall. Like Ponder and Gabbert, Locker started the season as a backup quarterback. Unlike the other two, he managed to go his entire rookie season without starting a game (though he did take snaps in five of them.) This worked out only because they had Matt Hasselbeck, a significantly better quarterback than McCown or McNabb (at this point in his career.) By his second season Locker was the starter, but injuries cost him significant time each of the past two years. In the time he has played he has shown very little to suggest that he can be a long term solution at quarterback, but because of his limited opportunities the Titans have decided to stick with him for this coming season.

The final—and perhaps most interesting—case is Colin Kaepernick, selected early in the second round by the 49ers. He saw essentially no action his rookie season and very little during the beginning of his second season, before receiving the opportunity to be a starter and blossoming into one of the better young quarterbacks in the league. People point to Kaepernick as an example of how quarterbacks can benefit from sitting on the bench. While I have to agree that he would not have had the same immediate success if he had started right away, there are a number of issues around this example that lead me to question how well it translates into other circumstances.

The first one I have to mention is also the biggest: Jim Harbaugh. It is possible for a player to learn while sitting on the bench, but only if they have an excellent coach to guide them. Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league, and a lengthy playing career has given him a better understanding of the quarterback position than any other head coach in the NFL. His track record is proven, from turning San Diego State’s Josh Johnson into a legitimate NFL backup, to guiding Andrew Luck’s development at Stanford (something he doesn’t receive enough credit for), to revitalizing Alex Smith’s career. Smith is the other big factor. Like Locker, Kaepernick sat behind a quarterback capable of not humiliating himself to such an extent that the fans started screaming for him to be replaced. Because the 49ers won thirteen games and made it to the NFC Championship, they were able to let their young quarterback sit on the bench undisturbed. Most other quarterbacks are not so lucky, and most are thrown into the fire whether they’re prepared or not.

In the 2011 draft we saw the full spectrum of quarterback possibilities. From that draft we have two busts, two stars, and two question marks. One of the stars started right away, the other had to wait until halfway through his second season. Both of the busts were thrown into the starting job in the middle of their rookie season. One of the question marks was the starter from the moment he stepped into his team’s facilities, and the other sat for a full season behind a veteran.

So what lessons can we take from these six quarterbacks to apply to the four rookies this year? I’ll consider each on a case by case basis as I examine why they should be given the starting job right away.

I’ll start with Derek Carr, the one quarterback who might actually have a case for sitting on the bench. In this case it’s not an issue of development but an issue of the talent on the Raiders roster. Placing him under center would be almost criminal, behind a dismal offensive line on an offense devoid of talented skill players. Very few quarterbacks can find success in this setting, and it’s possible he could find himself destroyed in the same way as his older brother (one of the few quarterbacks who actually was developmentally damaged by his early career struggles.) Oakland is going nowhere with or without him as their starting quarterback, and it might be best for him to start fresh after they’ve had a chance to add more talent.

But even if he doesn’t start from the beginning, he is going to find his way onto the field at some point this season. Matt Schaub is probably the best established quarterback on these four teams, but we saw last year what happens when he is forced to try to make plays for himself rather than relying on elite talent surrounding him. He is bound to string together a few bad games, at which point the calls for the rookie will become overwhelming. Under such circumstances it is inevitable that Carr will end up as a starter, much as Gabbert and Ponder did their rookie seasons.

The reality of the modern NFL doesn’t give a highly drafted rookie the opportunity to spend a full season sitting behind a veteran. A rookie quarterback is going to find his way onto the field, and he needs to be as prepared as possible for when that happens. He needs reps in practice, experience in the preseason with the first team offense. During training camp it is possible to split reps between quarterbacks, but by the time the season starts almost every practice rep goes to the starter. The backup is left running the scout team, and rather than learning his own offense he scrambles through shell versions of other teams’. The best way to learn to play the game is to play the game, and the benefits of a few weeks on the bench are minimal.

I expect that Derek Carr will start for the Raiders by Week Eight, and I expect him to struggle until he is given time to acclimate to the offense, just as he would if he started Week One. By sitting him on the bench, they aren’t giving time for his development. They’re just pushing it back.

A similar case is Blake Bortles, the first quarterback selected in the draft. Like Carr he is on a team nearly devoid of talent, though Jacksonville did more to help him through the draft, adding a pair of wide receivers with their second and third round picks. But he is also the most raw of the four quarterbacks, and he needs the most development before he becomes a capable NFL starter.

Under ideal circumstances he would receive it, but ideal circumstances don’t exist. It would be nice to see him develop like Kaepernick was able to, but Chad Henne is no Alex Smith and Gus Bradley is no Jim Harbaugh. I know I’m repeating myself, but like it or not he is going to start this season. The choice Jacksonville faces is whether to put out a poorly prepared quarterback in Week One with the potential to develop over the season, or a completely unprepared quarterback in Week Six.

There is one added benefit of starting a quarterback right away, one none of these teams want to acknowledge at this point. The sooner a quarterback makes it onto the field, the sooner he can be evaluated to determine whether he is a long term solution. Just three years ago Jacksonville put Gabbert out there early on, and it became immediately apparent that he could not play in the NFL. They were able to move on quickly, grabbing Bortles in this year’s draft. An even better example comes from 2012, when Cleveland made Brandon Weeden their starter from the beginning of training camp. Two years later he’s gone, and they were able to start over with Manziel. This isn’t the ideal outcome, but it is still better than what Tennessee is dealing with, stuck with Locker for another season because they haven’t seen enough to dismiss him.

The next quarterback is one who should absolutely start right away, but right now he is stuck in a senseless competition. Johnny Manziel has already become Cleveland’s most popular player, and he has the talent to bring some excitement to their offense right away. Even with a hometown player in Brian Hoyer as the veteran option, the fans will rally around Manziel as the season wears on.

Many will try to argue that this sort of pressure is not something a team should concern itself with, but that is as ignorant as the belief that a high draft pick can spend a season on the bench. Coaches hear everything that’s said, players hear everything that’s said, and most importantly, owners hear everything that’s said. That pressure is real, and eventually it becomes necessary to make a change just to bring some positivity to the locker room and the fans.

There is one argument that can be made for Manziel to sit, and that is the player ahead of him. The other three teams have well known options ahead of their rookies, options that have proven incapable of being high quality starters in the league. Hoyer is a bit different, a quarterback with only three career starts who has showed promise when he’s been on the field. If their coaches believe that he has any sort of long term potential, they are justified in staging a competition.

But there is no point in a competition just to “make a rookie earn his position”. He earned his position by what he did in college, by being selected as high as he was. Forcing him to go through competition will only steal reps from him and limit his development in camp. We saw a perfect example of this just last year, when first round selection EJ Manuel was forced to compete with journeyman Kevin Kolb. Manuel came out in the preseason and found success completing short, simple passes, enough to earn him the starting job (aided by Kolb’s injury troubles). But when the regular season began it became apparent that this was all Manuel could do, that he hadn’t had time to develop a full understanding of the offense. Many people took this to mean that he wasn’t ready, but I think this just showed that he wasn’t prepared properly. How can he expect to develop himself in the offense if he spends half his time standing and watching another quarterback for the sake of “competition”?

A similar competition is in store for the final quarterback, the one who deserves beyond any doubt to start from the moment training camp begins. Teddy Bridgewater is the most NFL ready of all the quarterbacks to come out in the draft, and he is in the best position to succeed. He has the best group of wide receivers, the best running back, and possibly the best offensive line (Cleveland could put up some argument for this one.) He has a proven track record of picking up an offense quickly, starting the third game of his true freshman season at Louisville and never looking back.

Right now his coaches are preaching competition, and it looks like they will start training camp by splitting reps between him and Matt Cassel. Cassel is a lot like Schaub, a quarterback who found some success riding talented teammates but has struggled whenever asked to make plays himself. Sooner or later, Bridgewater will be the starting quarterback. Vikings fans just have to hope that their coaches realize their mistake and name him the starter while there is still time to get him ready for the season.