Weathering the Injury Storm

Football is a brutal sport. We’ve been reminded of that repeatedly this year, as injuries to stars like Aaron Rodgers, JJ Watt, and David Johnson have effectively ended their teams’ seasons. But with 14 games in the book, there is no team out there that has emerged unscathed from injuries to crucial players. Even the best teams in the league have been hit, and they have found ways to fight through.

We’ve spent a lot of time this year highlighting the players who have gone down, so I thought I’d take this chance to draw attention to some of the players who have stepped up to take their place. For each of the thirteen teams either holding or tied for a playoff spot, I selected a player who has filled in for one of their injured stars. I also called out a player they simply cannot afford to lose, a player whose absence would likely doom their championship hopes. Obviously for this last one it would be too easy to just select a quarterback, so I limited myself to choosing from other, less vital positions on the team.

Philadelphia Eagles

Player who has stepped up: Lane Johnson, OT

The strength of Philadelphia’s offense is their line, and when veteran left tackle Jason Peters went down earlier this year it looked like they were in trouble. The obvious move—and the one most teams would have made—was to flip star right tackle Johnson to the left side. But the Eagles decided against that, keeping their chemistry intact and instead flipping their entire scheme around. Where once they shifted their protection to the right and left Peters on an island, now they move in the opposite direction, trusting Johnson to hold up one on one. This is a task he is more than capable of, with unique athleticism that has developed to make him one of the best young linemen in the league.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Jason Kelce, C

Obviously the Eagles are reeling from the loss of Carson Wentz, and it’s going to be impossible to find anyone who can match that kind of impact. But as I mentioned above the strength of this offense is still along the line, and that begins in the very middle. Kelce has been superb this season as both a run blocker and a pass protector, and with a backup quarterback in place he’s even more crucial setting up the protection scheme.

Minnesota Vikings

Player who has stepped up: Jerick McKinnon/Latavius Murray, RB

Case Keenum is the obvious answer, and we could even throw Adam Thielen into the mix for stepping up and becoming a true number one receiver as Stefon Diggs has struggled to stay healthy. But I’m going to go with the two headed running back monster they have used to fill the shoes of Dalvin Cook. Cook looked like a true star before a torn ACL ended his season, and rather than try to replace his rare gifts with a single player the Vikings have excelled with a rotation. In the ten weeks since Cook went down these two have combined for 1082 yards on the ground and 458 through the air, the sort of production any team would take from its backfield.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Harrison Smith, S

Minnesota has a lot of great players on their defense, but none are as vital to their success as Smith. He is the best safety in football right now, and he is the best at pretty much anything you ask him to do. He erases the field sideline to sideline when standing back in a deep zone, and he destroys blocking angles as he flies up to make tackles in the running game. He can blitz, he can cover, and he produces turnovers. He does whatever Mike Zimmer asks him to do, and to replace him with any lesser player would eliminate a huge chunk of Minnesota’s defensive playbook.

New Orleans Saints

Player who has stepped up: Ryan Ramczyk, OT

It seemed a slightly odd move when the Saints used their second first round pick this year to grab an offensive tackle. They already had the left side locked down with Terron Armstead, and they used a top fifteen selection on Andrus Peat just two years ago. But it proved to be a wise move when both Armstead and Peat missed big chunks of the season. Ramczyk has played every snap on offense this year, bouncing between both sides of the line and offering contributions that would make him the most valuable rookie on almost any other team.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Marshon Lattimore, CB

Cornerback is traditionally one of the hardest positions to translate from college to the NFL, which makes is even more remarkable that Lattimore has already become one of the best in the league. He is only 21 years old, and he is already a true shutdown cornerback, the sort of player who completely changes everything a team does on defense. His injury history was the main reason he fell to number 11 in the draft, and various nicks have limited him to only two-thirds of the Saints defensive snaps. But when he’s out there this is a fundamentally different defense, the sort that can win a team a Super Bowl.

Los Angeles Rams

Player who has stepped up: Nickell Robey-Coleman

The Rams have been relatively healthy this year, and there isn’t one player I can point to as a glaring absence from their team. But they have suffered several smaller injuries to their secondary, which has made the performance of free agent pickup Robey-Coleman especially valuable. His ability to lock down a team’s slot receiver takes a lot of pressure off safeties to cover the middle of the field, allowing them to flow more freely to the sidelines to protect against the weaker cornerbacks they’ve had to put out there.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Aaron Donald, DT

Alongside JJ Watt, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski, Donald is in the conversation for the best non-quarterback in the entire NFL. He’s been the most dominant defensive player this year, presenting a physical matchup problem that simply cannot be solved. The Rams defense isn’t good, but they skate by trusting Donald to individually wreck a couple opposing drives each week. The fact that they’ve put together a playoff caliber defense on this strategy is remarkable, and without Donald they would have no hope of winning any game that wasn’t a wild shootout.

Carolina Panthers

Player who has stepped up: Ed Dickson, TE

Cam Newton hasn’t been given a lot to work with over the course of his career, but the one thing he has always been able to rely on is a quality tight end. Every year since Newton’s rookie season, Greg Olsen has started sixteen games at tight end and finished with at least 60 catches and 800 yards. The past three seasons he has gone over 75 receptions and 1000 yards. But so far this year he has been limited to only five games, a loss that could have been devastating to Carolina’s offense. But they found a suitable replacement in Dickson, a blocking tight end who has put up his best statistical season since 2011, chipping in more than 400 yards to cover the absence of one of the best in the game.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Christian McCaffrey, RB/WR

I still struggle to know what to make of McCaffrey this year. He is a genuine liability as a running back, and there are times the team would be better just pounding the ball between the tackles with Newton and Jonathan Stewart. But his versatility as a receiver changes the way defenses have to play the Panthers, in a way that no one else on their offense can come close to replicating. McCaffrey has been a bit of a disappointment this year, and I’m not sure if he has what it takes to live up to his draft position. But the way Carolina has built their offense around him makes his limited skillset vital to their success.

Atlanta Falcons

Player who has stepped up: Terron Ward, RB

For the second season in a row the Falcons have been remarkably healthy, so I’ll go with a player with a very limited role. Ward has filled in for both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman at various times this season, and while he went without a touch in ten of their fourteen games he did admirably in the other four, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and making life easier for their primary running back.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Julio Jones, WR

I thought about getting clever with this one, pointing out that Atlanta has pretty good depth at receiver anyway. A year ago I might have had a point, as Kyle Shanahan schemed open anyone who could reasonably be expected to catch a football. But increasingly this year the Falcons offense has regressed to chucking the ball up to the most physically gifted receiver in football, and Jones has obliged with a series of ridiculous catches to keep them alive as they have sputtered through rough patches.

New England Patriots

Player who has stepped up: Marquis Flowers, LB

The Patriots have been devastated by injuries along the front seven, starting before the season with rookie Derek Rivers and culminating with the loss of linebacker Dont’a Hightower. At this point they merely need bodies to try to slow down opposing offenses, and Flowers has been more than just a body. He’s made several impactful plays since moving into the starting lineup, and he’s earned himself a role throughout the postseason, as the Patriots try to hold on with a patchwork defensive front.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Rob Gronkowski, TE

Tom Brady is the MVP of the league this year, but he might not actually be the player the Patriots can least afford to lose. Gronkowski’s injury history is extensive, and this along with his (far too short) suspension two weeks back has given us plenty of opportunity to see New England’s offense without their star tight end. And simply put, it doesn’t work. New England has a decent receiving corps, but their receivers are all undersized, easily bodied by physical man coverage. Gronkowski is their one true weapon that breaks the way defenses can play them, always open even when nothing else is working for New England.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player who has stepped up: Chris Hubbard, OT

Hubbard has received a lot of playing time this year, first due to an injury to star right tackle Marcus Gilbert and then due to his four game suspension. The early part of the season was rough for Hubbard, but once he got established on the line he truly blossomed. He’s managed to match the unusual pace of Pittsburgh’s running game and understand his quarterback’s tendency to hold the ball, difficult tasks for any lineman to figure out. Gilbert will be back this week, but with Ramon Foster suffering a concussion it’s possible there may be another spot open on the line for Hubbard to slide into.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Ryan Shazier, LB

It’s tricky to find an answer for this one. The Steelers are the deepest and most talented team in the league, with redundancy built at every position. If they lose Le’Veon Bell, they can spread the field out and attack with their deep receiving corps. They’ll play the next couple weeks without Antonio Brown, but they should be able to win on the ground. Cam Heyward is the best player on their defense, but Stephon Tuitt already does much of the same work. The only real irreplaceable player is, unfortunately, one they’ve already lost. There is no linebacker on their team who can match Shazier’s speed and playmaking instincts, because there is no linebacker in the league who can do that. Shazier is a one of a kind player, and his absence fundamentally changes Pittsburgh’s defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player who has stepped up: Keelan Cole, WR

Prior to the season the one part of Jacksonville’s offense that looked reasonably set was wide receiver. They had a pair of imposing towers on the outside in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, and they had a dangerous weapon out of the slot in Marqise Lee. But Robinson is out for the season, Hurns has missed the past five games, and Lee went down last week with an ankle injury that will likely keep him out until the playoffs. Fortunately the Jaguars seem to have found something in undrafted rookie Cole, who has put up 334 yards and three touchdowns over the past three weeks, bringing an explosive threat to an offense that is otherwise content to pound the ball on the ground.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Calais Campbell, DE/DT

Health has been the biggest asset to Jacksonville’s defense this year, but with the depth of talent that fills every level it’s hard to find a single player whose absence could really sink this unit. The closest I come is Campbell, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate who elevates every other player along the defensive front. Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler have combined for 18.5 sacks this year despite still being relatively raw as pass rushers, largely due to the pressure Campbell applies up the middle. Without his ability to penetrate, quarterbacks would have more freedom to step away from the speed rush around the edge, and the Jaguars would lose more than just Campbell’s production.

Kansas City Chiefs

Player who has stepped up: No one

I tried for this one, but I just couldn’t find anyone to fit the bill. It isn’t that Kansas City hasn’t suffered injuries. They’re without Eric Berry, Dee Ford, Mitch Morse, and Chris Conley for the remainder of the year. The problem is that no one has really stepped up their game as the season has gone along, unsurprising considering Kansas City’s 2-7 performance over the past nine games. Players went down for the Chiefs, and there was no one really there to take their place.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Travis Kelce, TE

The Kelce brothers play different positions, but they both hold irreplaceable roles in their teams’ offenses. Travis Kelce is the closest thing to Rob Gronkowski outside of New England, a versatile pass catching and blocking tight end who fills any role Andy Reid asks of him in this offense. He is a matchup nightmare, and with a better quarterback he could be putting up mind boggling stats. As it is, he will have to satisfy himself with the rare occasion Alex Smith is comfortable throwing him the ball, when his freakish strength and athleticism makes him one of the most dangerous run after the catch threats in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans

Player who has stepped up: Rishard Matthews, WR

Corey Davis was supposed to be the player that added a spark to Tennessee’s offense. But he has been in and out of the lineup, missing five games earlier this year and accumulating only 284 yards receiving so far. And with Eric Decker contributing little as a free agent, Matthews has hummed along to quiet productivity. A year after putting up 945 yards and nine touchdowns in a run heavy offense, he’s working on a similar performance once again, with 740 yards and four touchdowns for a team that has shown no indication of wanting him around.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Derrick Henry, RB

I’m not even sure what to put here, because Tennessee’s offensive system already runs like they don’t have all their good players. They have a pair of excellent tackles they should be able to trust on islands against pass rushers, but that doesn’t stop them from running two man routes and keeping backs and tight ends in for max protections. Losing Henry might actually convince them to open their offense up, but in all likelihood it would just lead them to spend more time slamming DeMarcu Murray ineffectively into the line.

Buffalo Bills

Player who has stepped up: Dion Dawkins, OT

When the Bills selected Dawkins late in the second round, left tackle was probably the last position they expected him to play. A versatile player who could slot in on either the inside or the outside, the plan for Dawkins was likely to start at guard and develop until he could lock down the right tackle spot opposite veteran Cordy Glenn. But with Glenn on IR, Dawkins slid into the starting left tackle spot and has exceeded expectations there, steadily improving over the course of the season and patching up an otherwise shaky offensive line.

Player they can’t afford to lose: LeSean McCoy, RB

Buffalo’s offensive line is average at best. Their receivers are just plain bad. The only hope they have on offense is for their quarterback and their running back to make ridiculous athletic plays (which makes their attempt to bench Tyrod Taylor even more insane). And unlike in years past, their running back depth chart doesn’t really exist beyond McCoy. Their other options out of the backfield are a pair of fullbacks and Travaris Cadet, a journeyman running back who has been on five teams in the past three seasons.

Baltimore Ravens

Player who has stepped up: Marlon Humphrey, CB

For most of the season Baltimore had the best pass defense in football, stifling opponents down the field and generating an insane number of turnovers. Their best player was Jimmy Smith, an excellent cornerback who has struggled with injuries since entering the league. And, unfortunately, the injury bug hit him again in the past month, ending his season and forcing their rookie first round pick into a more substantial role. Humphrey came in as a developmental prospect, and his ability to contribute immediately is a pleasant surprise, and a positive sign for his future growth.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Justin Tucker, K

This is kind of a joke, but it also really isn’t. Baltimore’s offense is truly awful, and their only saving grace is the sheer breadth of field goal range they have to work with. Tucker’s combination of distance and accuracy is unmatched in the league, and the Ravens are a threat to put up points anytime they get across midfield. A lesser kicker would devastate their one real advantage on that side of the ball and likely end any hope they have of competing.

The Playoff Race Contrarian

We are rapidly approaching the end of the regular season, and the playoffs are starting to take shape. On the NFC side we look to be in store for a tremendous collision of talented teams, and at this point in the season you could reasonably argue any of eight teams as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

On the AFC side, well, things are a little less pretty. The Patriots and Steelers are good as always, and the Jaguars have won a lot of games, even if people are still quite reasonably suspicious about their true quality. And after that, it’s really hard to point to three more teams that deserve to make the postseason.

But each side gets exactly six teams, and we’ll spend the next three weeks figuring out which six. But for now I’d like to challenge myself to go against the prevailing notions. The NFC is clearly much better and much deeper than the AFC, but for just this week I’d like to run through the teams in each conference fighting for their playoff lives and see if I can find something contrarian to say. For the NFC that means identifying the flaws of the teams that look like legitimate contenders, while in the AFC that means trying to find some reason to believe in these dismal playoff hopefuls.

(Note, I won’t be including the top two teams in either conference. Philadelphia and Minnesota are basically identical teams at this point, and I don’t see any need to go into detail about why Case Keenum or Nick Foles might doom them. And I don’t think anyone needs to explain that the Steelers and Patriots are actually good.)

NFC: Why they suck

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams look like they might have it all. They have an excellent running back behind a strong offensive line. They have a deep receiving corps led by a star in Sammy Watkins. They have an above average quarterback and arguably the best defensive player in the league wrecking plays from the defensive tackle spot.

And the back end of their defense…well that’s a different story. The Rams are stout along the front, but they are abysmal at the linebacker and secondary positions. They’ve thrown a bunch of athletes out there, but they haven’t bothered to teach them how to play disciplined defense, resulting in a linebacker group that flies all over the field and very rarely ends up anywhere near the ball. And while their secondary might have been good at the beginning of the season, it’s been beaten to pieces by injury, and every week seems to bring a new clip of a wide receiver burning a Rams backup cornerback on his way to an easy touchdown.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have revitalized their defense with an infusion of young talent in the secondary. After being an embarrassment to the sport of football for years, this is now an above average unit, capable of supporting Drew Brees as he has struggled through a season that has been, by his standards, very up and down. Most of the credit is deservedly going to Marshon Lattimore, their first round pick who has already become one of the top five cornerbacks in the league.

But the Saints still have a glaring flaw defensively, and that is in stopping the run. Their linebacker corps is a net minus, and last week Atlanta won by slamming he ball repeatedly up the middle. New Orleans has found success this year with a balanced offensive attack that controls the clock, but they can’t find the right rhythm to do this if the other team plays the same game.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina tried to fix their offense this offseason, and it didn’t work. After years asking Cam Newton to do the impossible over and over in the passing game, they are once again relying on him launching the ball into impossibly tight windows to receivers who can’t catch and can’t get open. Devin Funchess is better than we could have expected, and much better than Kelvin Benjamin ever was, but the passing game still hasn’t evolved in the way many people hoped.

The solutions to this were supposed to be their first two picks, but Curtis Samuel never found a role in the offense before going out for the year, and Christian McCaffrey has been limited to a situational role. He hasn’t proven to be an effective runner, which allows defenses to treat him as just another receiver, limiting his opportunities to burn linebackers and safeties. And unless Newton is playing at the MVP level he reached two years ago, this offense can’t generate enough consistent easy plays to carry them down the field, and they will remain reliant on moments of unsustainable explosion to score points.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta was a Super Bowl team a year ago, and they should only have gotten better this year. They returned just about everyone on offense, and their young defense looked ready to take the next step, with a trio of excellent second year players joining NFL sack leader Vic Beasley and the returning Desmond Trufant to form one of the most talented and most exciting units in the league.

When a team underperforms like the Falcons, it’s usually the case that we can point to players having disappointing seasons. That isn’t really the case here. All the players you expected to play at a high level are playing at a high level, and most of the problems in Atlanta fall on the shoulders of the coaches.

It was inevitable that their offense would struggle after losing one of the best playcallers in the league in Kyle Shanahan, but the issues on their defense are more perplexing. For some reason they have gotten in the habit of dropping Beasley into coverage, neutering their pass rush and leaving him more than ten sacks short of the number he put up a year ago. These problems are fixable, but the fact that they haven’t fixed them already suggests serious problems for Atlanta’s hopes of a repeat Super Bowl trip.

Seattle Seahawks

I think I’ve said enough about Seattle’s so-called offensive line, so let’s turn our attention to one of their myriad other issues. The pass rush has been inconsistent all season, and they let Blake Bortles have his way with them just a week ago. The back end of the defense is battered to pieces, and they can no longer win games just by shutting down the opposition. The Seahawks need to be able to put up points on offense, and that brings me to the biggest issue of all.

Russell Wilson has not been great this year. He’s performed reasonably well, especially in the fourth quarter of tight games, and the sheer productivity on an offense without much else going for it has earned him some MVP buzz. But when you watch him play, something just doesn’t look right with him, and it was highlighted against Jacksonville this past weekend.

The down the field precision that made him lethal for years has vanished, as he has started to panic under pressure more than he has at any time in the past. He knows he can’t trust the protection in front of him, and he’s resorted to desperation heaves down the field, which quality defenses can turn into takeaways. Matched up against a team like Philadelphia, Minnesota, or Carolina, he is going to get torn to pieces, and the offense will crumple into nothing

Green Bay Packers

The Packers still have a hill to climb to catch up to the other teams, but with Aaron Rodgers potentially returning this week I’m not going to put it past them. The Packers hung together reasonably well without Rodgers, winning their past two after dropping four of their first five. They found an effective running game, and their defensive front is coming together well.

Rodgers can save Green Bay’s season, but their performance with Brett Hundley under center just highlighted what we had suspected all along. Outside of their superstar quarterback, this is a really bad team. They won their past two games but both victories came in overtime, against teams that are a combined 4-22. Their secondary is an injury ridden mess, and they don’t have any reliably and consistent players on offense. The hole they’ve dug themselves is too deep, especially for a team that was fringe top six in the NFC to begin with.

AFC: Why they’re actually good

Jacksonville Jaguars

This one isn’t much of a stretch. The Jaguars have clearly established themselves as the third best team in the AFC, and there’s still a realistic shot at them grabbing the top seed overall. They’ve worked their way through an easy schedule with an overpowering defense, and their first real test came this past week against Seattle. They passed with flying colors, shutting down Russell Wilson and holding the Seahawks to 10 points.

The defense is the story, and the running game has been effective as well, but I want to talk about Blake Bortles. Bortles hasn’t suddenly become a good quarterback, but he has very much become a different quarterback. For years he had the reputation as one of the league’s premier garbage time passers, collecting stats in games that were already well out of reach. Coming into the season he had more than four times as many touchdowns in the fourth quarter as he did in the first, and the first quarter was the one quarter where he actually had more interceptions than touchdowns.

So far this year he has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions in the first quarter. It cannot be understated how valuable this is for the Jaguars, a team that is built to hold a lead and will implode the moment they fall behind. Bortles still holds them back in a lot of ways, but he has stepped up his performance in the early part of games, making life a lot easier for everyone else on the team.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs fell off after a strong start to the year, but the foundations of a good team are still somewhere here. Kareem Hunt’s rookie of the year campaign has all but died, but a 116 yard performance against the Jets shows that he is still a quality weapon. The Chiefs do have a lot of talent on offense, even if it isn’t made up of conventional players, and in Andy Reid they have one of the few offensive minds capable of taking advantage of these unique players.

Tyreek Hill is still working on developing as a wide receiver, and when teams can negate him over the top there isn’t much he can do. But his speed and quickness still makes that a very difficult task, and it only takes one well drawn play to burst a game open. And Travis Kelce remains a mismatch no matter where they put him on the field, whether that’s running up the seam, streaking down the sideline, or taking shovel passes out of the backfield. Alex Smith’s limitations will always hold this team back, but Reid has the ability to cover these failings up, and if he can rediscover his early season play calling magic this team has shown they can beat any of the top teams in the league.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 8-5 and can earn the 3 seed just by winning out, but man is it hard to find a reason to like this team. Their defense is atrocious, and their backwards offense has caused Marcus Mariota to regress from what looked to be a superstar trajectory. They remain committed to giving DeMarco Murray the majority of the running back work, even though Derrick Henry is averaging over a yard more per carry. And on the outside they’ve put together one of the least athletic and least explosive groups of receivers in the league, turning every game into a slog of contested catches for five yard gains.

About the best I can give the Titans credit for is their willingness to be creative. Their offense is trapped in the stone age conceptually, with its dedication to congesting the middle of the field and controlling the game on the ground. But they are at least creative in how they do this, mixing up motions and misdirection in ways that occasionally even work. And I have to admit that it is fun to see them using rookie cornerback Adoree Jackson on offense, even if they don’t bother to practice a play with him before deciding to throw a screen to him on a crucial fourth down.

Buffalo Bills

After a few miserable years with Rex Ryan in charge, the hiring of Sean McDermott has brought the Bills defense back to life. They aren’t elite by any means, but they are solidly above average, enough to keep Buffalo in any game when their offense is reasonably effective. And they have done this in a surprising way. In the past Buffalo won by dominating along the front, pressuring the quarterback with a four man rush to cover up holes on the back end. But this year they have generated only 21 sacks, bottom five in the league.

The most effective part of Buffalo’s defense has been the part that saw the most turnover. During the offseason they saw their top three cornerbacks and their starting safety depart, replaced by a handful of no name players and a highly drafted rookie. That rookie Tre’Davious White has intercepted three passes this year, while free agent safety Micah Hyde has locked down the back end as well as anyone in the league, producing five interceptions. The Bills rank in the top ten in interceptions and third in forced fumbles, an opportunistic defense that has allowed them to win a surprising number of games in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year.

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore’s fortunes have swung dramatically over the past few weeks, yet they’re still in excellent position to snag a wild card. With games left against the Browns, Colts, and Bengals their road could not possibly be easier, and while the strength of their team has fallen off recently they’ve found another tool to take its place.

Baltimore’s pass defense was the best in the league for most of the season, until an injury to Jimmy Smith knocked them off kilter. They surrendered more than 500 passing yards to Ben Roethilsberger a week ago, letting him throw his way to victory in a game the Ravens should have won. They still have a very talented secondary, but Marlon Humphrey is as up and down as any (non-Lattimore) rookie cornerback, and they can’t count on shutting down opposing quarterbacks week in and week out anymore.

They may not have to, because they finally found something that works on offense. Joe Flacco is still an utter disaster, but at least now the Ravens have a running game, boosted by Seahawks castoff Alex Collins. Collins is averaging more than five yards per carry and has assumed the feature back role, after no other running back on the team managed to eclipse four yards a carry. The offensive line is still above average despite the absence of Marshal Yanda, and the struggles through most of the season suggested a bigger problem with the skill talent than with the blockers, something that has been confirmed by Collins’s success since taking over.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are the last on this list, but they’re probably the easiest to put together an argument for. After losing their first four games, they have won seven of their past nine, and right now they look like one of the clear top four teams in the AFC. They have a chance to thrust themselves into the conversation this coming weekend, with a win over Kansas City that would put them in the driver’s seat in the AFC West.

We’re used to the Chargers succeeding on the offensive side of the ball, but this season they rank 10^th in defensive DVOA. More significantly, they rank 7^th in weighted defensive DVOA, which upweights recent weeks to show how they’ve improved since the beginning of the season. Though they’re a bottom ten team against the run, they rank 6^th against the pass, and this isn’t surprising when you look at the star pair of defensive ends the ruin quarterbacks’ days on a weekly basis.

But as good as the pass rush is, none of this would be possible without the secondary. They looked doomed when Jason Verrett was lost for the season (again) in September, but they have somehow put together one of the best and deepest cornerback rotations in the league. Casey Hayward is playing as well as any cornerback in the NFL, and second year player Trevor Williams has emerged from nowhere to lock down the other side. Add in rookie Desmond King exceeding all expectations in the nickel, and this is one of the toughest teams in the league to throw against.