Opening Week Panic

The first week of the NFL is often the most fun because it exists almost entirely devoid of context. All we have to judge these teams are a single game and our preexisting beliefs, both of which can be extremely misleading. A poor matchup or a bad game suddenly becomes reason to panic, and anything remotely positive produces unrestrained excitement.

I'll be back with the positives from Week One, but because I enjoy spreading negativity, I'll start today with the teams that are panicking. I've selected one team from each division and picked out the piece of their roster that gives them the most reason for concern following their first game. I've given each team a ranking on a Panic Meter scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the most panic imaginable. Some of these issues will recur, and some of them will fade into memory.

St Louis Rams

Pass Rush

A lot went wrong in St Louis on Sunday. Of all the teams in the NFL they had probably the worst performance, managing only 6 points against a Vikings team that allowed 30 per game last season. The issues at quarterback only worsened when they lost replacement Shaun Hill to a quad injury, but they did not expect their running game to be so utterly ineffective. Their defense wasn’t much better, and that’s where the real concern lies. No one was particularly high on the Rams coming into the season, but everyone agreed that they had the most terrifying front four in the NFL. Even if they did nothing else well, they would get after the quarterback. But even that didn’t work out on Sunday, as they managed only one sack on Matt Cassel.

The lone sack was distressing, as was every part of St Louis’s performance. But I don’t think there is much reason for the Rams to be concerned about their pass rush. The Vikings have a solid offensive line, and the Rams still managed to get a lot more pressure than the one sack indicates. Minnesota took very few shots down field, and a few of Cassel’s pass attempts were knocked off target by the pressure of the defensive line. Minnesota’s 34 points were accumulated thanks to a short field set up by an interception, a long run from Cordarrelle Patterson, and another interception that was returned for a touchdown. The Rams defense looked borderline competent, and their front four was only mildly disappointing. Robert Quinn generated consistent pressure when he wasn’t double teamed, and let’s just say that I have no worries about rookie Aaron Donald.

Panic Meter: 2/10

Chicago Bears

Passing Attack

The most surprising outcome of the day was Chicago’s loss at home to Buffalo. The Bears were seen as a playoff contender, with the Bills much more likely to be in contention for the number one overall pick. Much of the criticism for Chicago's defeat is going towards their defense, which looked eerily similar to last year as it allowed the Bills to march down the field and win it in overtime. But right now the defense is not their biggest issue. This team was always going to be carried by their offense, and they won't be winning many games this year if they can only score 20 points.

There are reasons to believe that this disappointing offensive performance will not repeat. The Bills have a much better defense than people realize. They were one of the ten best defenses in the league last season, and they have the best defensive line outside St Louis. There were some concerns that they could be hurt by the losses of safety Jairus Byrd and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they turned out to be a strong defense again this year. Add in the fact that the Bears played much of this game without Alshon Jeffery and with a hobbled Brandon Marshall, and it’s understandable why their offense struggled to move the ball. This is not a deep team, but both of these receivers should return quickly from their mild injuries.

However, there is one big reason to be concerned, and that is Jay Cutler. I’ve always been a fan and defender of Cutler, but right now it is hard for me to take his side. He was thrust into an unfortunate situation with his top receiving threats going down, but that doesn’t excuse the two terrible interceptions he threw. The Bears have a razor thin margin for error if they want to make the playoffs this season, and they cannot afford mistakes from their quarterback. Cutler has to be better the rest of this season, otherwise the Bears will wind up losing a lot of games like they did against the Bills.

Panic Meter: 5/10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Offense

Everyone understood coming into the season that Tampa Bay would live or day based on the success of their offense. Their defense is extremely good, and they performed well on Sunday (even if they did struggle to pressure the quarterback.) Their offense is another story. They were horrendous on Sunday, far and away the worst offense in the NFL. They couldn’t move the ball on the ground, and they couldn’t move the ball through the air. Josh McCown was brought in as a free agent in the hopes that he could replicate some of his success in Chicago, but instead he spent most of the day doing stuff like this.

 

There are mitigating factors of course, as there always are. Carolina lost a lot of pieces in the offseason, but their dominant front six remains intact. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is the weakness of their offense, and they will struggle against teams with quality defensive fronts. But even all of this cannot explain the sheer ineptitude of the Buccaneers offense. Their fullback broke a 54 yard run, but their other two running backs combined to carry thirteen times for 21 yards. McCown threw more interceptions in this one game than he did all last season, including this one, which needs to be watched as many times as possible.

Panic Meter: 8/10

Dallas Cowboys

Same old Tony Romo

We all expected Dallas’s defense to be bad. And they were, despite shutting out the 49ers in the second half. But the defense wasn’t the reason Dallas lost this game, nor was it the running attack that saw the Cowboys average 5.5 yards per carry. The biggest problem was their inability to protect the football, an issue highlighted by the three interceptions on consecutive first half possessions by their much maligned quarterback. I have been a vocal defender of Romo for the past few years, arguing that the criticism of him is based off a few occasional blunders magnified by the attention he receives in Dallas. But on Sunday he was the quarterback everyone else seems to think he is, a bumbling idiot who cost his team any chance of winning this game.

We’ve seen enough of Romo that I would normally caution against taking one game over the sample size of a full career, but after watching that game I have to wonder what we’ll see from him over the course of the season. He is as aware as anyone of just how terrible his defense is, and on Sunday it looked like he believed it was entirely up to him to match the points being rolled up against his team. He took risks that no quarterback should take, tried to force the ball downfield to produce quick scores rather than relying on his dangerous rushing attack. The Dallas defense isn’t going to get better this season, and unless Romo undergoes a radical shift in attitude, he is going to continue to make mistakes like he did this weekend.

Panic Meter: 6/10

Jacksonville Jaguars

Is this the best we can hope for?

Over the first half of this game, everything that could have broken right for the Jaguars did. They forced three turnovers from an Eagles team that rarely committed any last season. An undrafted rookie wide receiver stepped up to have over one hundred yards and two touchdowns. They built a 17-0 lead over a team they were 10.5 point underdogs to, but they couldn’t even manage to cover the spread by the end of the game.

The Jaguars didn’t come into this season with much in the way of hope, but in the early parts of this game they gave their fans plenty to dream about. A revamped defense that takes the ball away from the other team. An offense with legitimate weapons on the outside who they don’t have to worry about being arrested for drunk driving at 10 am. For the first half it looked like the Jaguars were capable of competing with anyone in the NFL, before cruel reality set in. The Eagles stormed back and won 34-17, shutting the Jaguars out after that explosive first sixteen minutes.

And now Jaguars fans have to ask themselves what hope they can possibly have if they can’t even win a game in which they get all the early breaks. If they’re spotted a 17 point lead and can’t hold on, how can they win a game on a more even footing? There is some validity to these concerns, but mostly they’re just the pessimism of a team that has suffered a disappointing loss. If things had been reversed and the Jaguars allowed 34 points before scoring 17 in garbage time, that wouldn’t suggest anything different about this team. But there is very little more disheartening than a game that builds hope before tearing it away. The Jaguars are the same team we thought they were a week ago, a team not ready to compete with competition like Philadelphia. The brief breath of hope was simply an illusion, something Jaguars fans would be better forgetting.

Panic Meter: 1/10

Pittsburgh Steelers

Heart of the Defense

Of all the teams to win this weekend, none came out feeling worse about their victory than Pittsburgh. The Steelers built up a 27-3 lead at halftime before completely falling apart in the second half, needing a last second field goal to beat the Brown 30-27. Their offense was utterly ineffective after halftime, crippled by penalties and a lack of pass protection. But more troubling was on the defensive side of the ball where, after managing only 101 yards in the first half, the Browns marched down the field to score on their first four drives after halftime. They did this on the back of rookie running back Terrence West, who gained 100 yards on sixteen carries by plunging straight at Pittsburgh’s defense. They also moved the ball effectively through the air, primarily with routes in the middle of the field just in front of the safeties. Pittsburgh could not stop Cleveland for most of the second half, and they were fortunate to escape with a victory.

The problems Pittsburgh had on defense were the same they faced last year. Casey Hampton is long gone, and they no longer have anyone stout enough to hold up in the middle. Their defensive ends are being asked to penetrate more, which opens up running lanes that weren’t there in the past. They need their linebackers to step up to fill these holes, and right now that isn't happening. Their linebackers aren’t filling well enough against the run, and they aren’t dropping back well enough against the pass.

To Pittsburgh’s credit, they were aware of these problems during the offseason and made some effort to fix them. Their first two draft picks were on the defensive side of the ball, linebacker Ryan Shazier and defensive end Stephan Tuitt. Shazier started on Sunday and played fairly well, and he will only improve as the season wears on. Tuitt will contribute as well, hopefully providing a stouter force against the run opposite star defensive end Cameron Heyward. This defense has holes, but it also has young players capable of stepping up and filling these holes. It may take some time, but their defense will get back on track.

Panic Meter: 4/10

Kansas City Chiefs

Offensive Line

We all knew Kansas City’s offensive line would be bad coming into last weekend, but no one expected it could be this bad. Alex Smith was pressured 17 times, leading to three interceptions from a quarterback whose only real skill is his ability to protect the football. Even more concerning, Jamaal Charles was effectively neutralized by the incompetence of the line in front of him. He carried the ball seven times for 19 yards and only managed 15 yards on four receptions. Their offense looked nearly as bad as Tampa Bay’s and St Louis’s, against a Titans defense that was near the bottom of the league last season and undergoing a drastic change in scheme.

I’m not optimistic about this team, but there is some reason to believe that things might get better. Right tackle Donald Stephenson missed the game because of a suspension, but he will be back after only three more games. Last year’s top pick Eric Fisher hasn’t shown much progress in his short career, but they still have to hope he’ll develop into a high quality player. But these are hopes pinned on uncertainties, on players who have never shown the ability to play at a high level. Even if things are better than they were this week, they will still be a well below average unit.

Panic Meter: 7/10

New England Patriots

Tom Brady

I spent most of last year and much of this offseason wondering about the future of Brady, and the results of the first game certainly showed the validity of my concerns. After a strong first half that gave the Patriots a 20-10 lead, Brady was terrible down the stretch, faltering under pressure and allowing the Dolphins to come back to earn a 33-20 victory. Even with the strong first half Brady was statistically one of the worst quarterbacks of the weekend, and his struggles are a big part of the reason why the Patriots are alone in last place in the AFC East for the first time in his career.

So you would think that with everything I had said this offseason, I would be ramping up the panic. And while I think this is definitely something worth watching, I’m not quite ready to dismiss Brady and the Patriots yet. His numbers this game were bad—two incompletions short of a career high and his lowest yards per attempt since 2006—but they don’t tell the whole story. His offensive line is a mess right now, but it should improve as the season wears on. And even if it doesn’t, he won’t perform as abysmally as he did this past Sunday. Even if he’s not what he used to be, he isn’t the quarterback he was against the Dolphins either. He’s somewhere in the middle, and that should still be enough for the Patriots to win their division.

Panic Meter: 3/10

2014 Final Preview

I’ve gone through each division team by team, and now it’s time to bring it all together for a complete NFL preview. Yes, I am aware that the NFL season has already started, but nothing that happened on Thursday has changed any of these projections (most of this was actually written before the game.) Below is what I think will happen, but since I can’t predict the future, I can’t offer you any guarantees. Football is probably the most random sport, and anything could conceivably happen over the course of the season.

AFC Playoffs

1)      Denver Broncos

2)      New England Patriots

3)      Indianapolis Colts

4)      Pittsburgh Steelers

5)      Baltimore Ravens

6)      Miami Dolphins

Denver, New England, and Indianapolis are playoff teams in pretty much everyone’s mind. Denver remains the top team, having only gotten better this offseason as they revamped their defense. Indianapolis will fall back some—giving the Patriots a clear road to the two seed—but there isn’t much in the AFC South to challenge them. I’ve mixed things up in the AFC North, dropping the Bengals out for the first time in three years. I think this is a team ready to regress, with an aging defense and an offense that isn’t capable of keeping up with the top units in the league. It will be a tight three way race for the division and one of the wild card spots, but in the end I think the Bengals will be the team stuck on the outside looking in.

The final spot is tough, because there genuinely aren’t six teams in the AFC worth making the playoffs. The Chargers are going to fall off some as their offense comes back to earth after unsustainable success last year, but they still might be able to slip into the playoffs anyone. Houston could make a run, but I think they will struggle to score the ball early in the season, enough to doom any playoff hopes. The AFC North could end up grabbing this spot as well, but I think it will be the Dolphins who end up slipping into the postseason. They were so close last season, needing to win only one of their final two games to make the playoffs. Their team has made slight improvements this offseason, and I think there is still hope that Ryan Tannehill could turn into a solid quarterback.

NFC Playoffs

1)      New Orleans Saints

2)      Green Bay Packers

3)      Seattle Seahawks

4)      Philadelphia Eagles

5)      San Francisco 49ers

6)      Chicago Bears

The first five are easy. These five teams made the playoffs last year, and they will make the playoffs again this year. They are the class of the conference, and all five can compete for a Super Bowl. I went with New Orleans as the top seed because they will have the most to play for, with a home field advantage that is as strong as any team’s in the league. They also will face slightly weaker competition than teams like the Packers and the Seahawks, without anyone in their division truly capable of challenging them. I slid Seattle down to a three seed because of their schedule and because I expect a small hangover from their Super Bowl season. They’ll still win the division over San Francisco, who will have their own early season struggles as they adjust to a more pass happy offense.

The final wild card spot is where it gets really interesting. This is a wide open position, with the main contenders being the Bears, Falcons, Redskins, and Cardinals. I think the Bears are the clear favorites, provided they can stay healthy. If they falter, any of the other teams has the opportunity to step up and grab the spot. Arizona might be the best of these teams, but their schedule is brutal enough (two against Seattle and San Francisco, plus San Diego, Denver, Philadelphia, and Atlanta) that they will struggle to keep pace. The Redskins are a team with a decent shot to sneak in, provided RGIII improves and their defense isn’t among the worst in the league (a big, big if.)

First Overall Pick – Oakland Raiders

The past few years the first overall selection has gone to a team no one expected. Even with Peyton Manning’s injury, no one thought the Colts would only win two games. Kansas City had a roster loaded with talent before they fell apart, and Houston was expected to be a playoff contender before the nightmare of last season. Oftentimes you see a team that expects to compete suffer through early season failures, at which point they utterly give up on the season and fall below less talented teams.

That won’t happen this year. The Raiders were one of the worst teams in the league last year, winning only four games against an absurdly easy slate of opponents. Not only is their schedule more difficult this year, their team is actually worse. They lost their best player Lamarr Houston to free agency, and they are somehow facing even more uncertainty at quarterback. It doesn’t look like they’ll get much (if any) contribution from 2013 first round pick DJ Hayden, and rookie Khalil Mack will likely spend most of the year dropping into coverage rather than rushing the passer. They have to play two games against Denver, two against San Diego, one each against Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, and New England. This is one of the worst teams the NFL has seen in years, and they will be lucky to win three games.

Guaranteed Misses

You remember above where I said there wouldn’t be any guarantees? Well, I lied. Here are three teams in each conference I guarantee will not make the playoffs

AFC:

Oakland Raiders

Did you see above where I said they’d get the first overall selection? Enough said.

Buffalo Bills

This isn’t a bad team, but I see very little upside. Their defense last year was as good as it could possibly be, and their offense doesn’t look like it will take much of a step forward. For them to make the playoffs EJ Manuel would have to perform at a level he’s never shown in either college or the NFL. With Sammy Watkins facing injury concerns, it only seems more likely they’ll end up the same exact place they’ve been the past decade.

Kansas City Chiefs

This one’s a bit of a risk, considering they were a playoff team a year ago. But they backed into the postseason against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and their team has gotten markedly worse since then. They still don’t have anything at wide receiver, they lost their three best offensive linemen to free agency, and Alex Smith is not enough to carry an offense. Jamaal Charles is about the only thing they have going for themselves, and he’ll struggle this year behind a miserable offensive line.

NFC:

St Louis Rams

The sad thing is, every team I’m listing for the NFC could very easily be a playoff team in the AFC. There is a lot to like about St Louis’s roster, especially their defensive line. It’s unfortunate that the offense will hold back this team, likely precluding Robert Quinn from winning Defensive Player of the Year (which he should have won last year.) I just can’t see them competing for a wild ward spot with their offense and their schedule, even more brutal than Arizona’s, which I discussed above.

Carolina Panthers

Projections have been harsh on Carolina this entire offseason, to the point that I think they’re starting to go too far. This team still has the same front six that was so dominant last year, and it isn’t as if their wide receiver group and offensive line were great before their losses this offseason. But even if they’re better than most people seem to think, they still can’t make the playoffs. The turnover in their secondary is too much to support a reliable pass defense, and a banged up Cam Newton just doesn’t have enough to work with on offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one is hard, hard enough that I’m almost considering removing the “guarantee” tag. But I said three teams from each conference, and I’m going to hold myself to that. There are teams in the NFC that will probably be worse than Tampa Bay (Detroit and New York come to mind) but these teams have high upside that could let them sneak into the final wild card spot. I don’t see that out of Tampa Bay, a good team that will be crippled by their quarterback position. Their defense will be one of the best in the league and they have plenty of intriguing skill talent on offense, but I can’t see Josh McCown leading a team to the playoffs.

Coaches Fired

Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

This one’s simple. If the Falcons miss the playoffs Smith is gone, and I don’t have the Falcons projected to make the playoffs. For years he received criticism for his failure to get Atlanta over the hump, and when he finally managed to win a playoff game the team fell apart the next year. Their were rumors that he’d be fired at the end of last season, and while it was a smart move to bring him back, the Falcons are right not to give him much leeway this season.

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants

Let me make this clear: I don’t think Coughlin will be fired. But I don’t think he’ll be coaching the Giants next year, whether by his choice or the management’s. This team has fallen off, and they need a fresh start with fresh players and fresh coaches. Unless they pull out a miraculous playoff berth this year, the ownership will see the necessity of moving on from Coughlin and will talk him into retirement.

Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys

Predicting Jerry Jones is almost impossible. Garrett’s been on the hot seat seemingly since he was hired, and year after year of mediocre results haven’t pushed him out. For the first time in his tenure he has a team that is genuinely not talented enough to make the playoffs, yet this will probably be the season that does him in. Even the best coaching job of his career probably won’t be enough to save his neck, though with Jerry Jones in charge anything is possible.

Jeff Fisher, St Louis Rams

This is a strange situation, because I think the injury to Sam Bradford may save Fisher’s job. I don’t think their season will turn out all that different with Shaun Hill at quarterback than it would have with Bradford under center, but I think it’s an argument that Fisher might use to save his neck. Of course, that may mean having to bring back Bradford for another wasted season, but Fisher hasn’t lasted this long by diving on grenades. The Rams would be better off clearing house at the end of the season and starting with a new coach and quarterback.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals

There are six head coaches active in the NFL who have been with their team since before 2008: Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin, Mike McCarthy, Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, and Marvin Lewis. Five of these coaches have Super Bowl titles, and the other has never won a playoff game. Lewis has made it through the past three seasons by just getting to the playoffs, but the next time the Bengals fail to make the postseason, he’s gone. Since I don’t have them making the playoffs this year, I think they’ll be hiring a new coach for next year.

Dennis Allen, Oakland Raiders

This isn’t fair. I actually think Allen has done a fine job with what he’s been given in Oakland, but I don’t see him surviving past this year. This team just isn’t set up to win more than four games, and the blame is going to fall unfairly on him. GM Reggie McKenzie will likely lost his job as well, and the Raiders will have to start over from the ground again next year.

Rex Ryan, New York Jets

At this point last year I didn’t expect Ryan to make it through the season, so take everything else I’ve said with a grain of salt. The Jets did better than expected last season, winning half their games and sniffing the edges of playoff contention. That won’t be enough this year, as fans are expecting them to take a step forward. Their defense will still be good (as all defenses under Ryan are,) but their consistent struggles to find offensive success will eventually come around to Ryan, costing him his job.

Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills

This is probably the most obvious name on this list, and it’s the one I think will probably not make it through the season. This is only Marrone’s second season with the team, so they might be willing to give him one more year to figure things out if they still can’t make any progress. But with the reports currently circling about the issues in the inner workings of this team, and with a season of disappointing losses and no draft pick to look forward to, I think it won’t take long for him to be sent on his way. He might survive until the new owners take over, but I think whoever buys the team will want to start over fresh.

Mike Pettine, Cleveland Browns

Just kidding. But maybe not. After all, Cleveland has gone through as many coaches in the past four years as the Steelers have gone through in the past 45.

Awards

Offensive Rookie of the Year: WR Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints

This is a tricky award to predict for one simple reason: quarterbacks. If a quarterback performs at even a slightly above average level, he will win this award (as evidenced by Sam Bradford’s victory in 2010.) But right now the only rookie quarterback starting is Derek Carr, and I doubt he can stay healthy/productive the entire season. The best bet would be Teddy Bridgewater, a pro ready quarterback surrounded by talent. But he likely won’t see the field until sometime near the middle of the season. I wouldn’t be stunned to see a late season push from him, but I think it will likely be too little too late.

Instead I’ll go with Cooks, who will be an exciting and productive member of one of the NFL’s best offenses on one of the NFL’s best teams. The talent around him will allow him to be more productive and earn more attention than rookies like Bishop Sankey or Sammy Watkins, and the success of his team will put him over the top. Sean Payton will certainly know how to take advantage of his talents, and Drew Brees will love having a player with this sort of versatility to throw the ball to.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: ILB Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh Steelers

Nine of the past eleven winners of this award have been linebackers. It’s a position with a relatively simple transition from college to the NFL, and players at this position accumulate a lot of stats that voters like to see. Shazier will pile up stats like no one else, using his speed to make plays in parts of the field other linebackers simply cannot reach. He’ll be near the league lead in tackles, and he’ll add a few interceptions and sacks to the mix. He will struggle some when teams try to run straight at him, but as a backside pursuer he will be a major factor in the improvement of Pittsburgh’s defense.

Comeback Player of the Year: DT Geno Atkins, Cincinnati Bengals

I don’t know what to make of this award, since no one seems to agree on what defines a “comeback player.” Is it just someone who was injured last year, like Atkins or Julio Jones? Or could it be someone who had a down season but is ready to bounce back, like Robert Griffin III? Is someone like Aaron Rodgers a viable candidate, even though he technically came back at the end of last year? I’ll go with Atkins, because of the numerous players who went down to season ending injuries last year, he was probably the best. He’ll be back to his normal self this year, as the best pass rushing defensive tackle in the league.

Coach of the Year: Sean Payton

This award is stupid, and predicting it is even stupider. Every year it goes to the coach of whichever team appears to improve the most, regardless of how much the coach did to help his team. This is an award all about storylines over performance, because coaching performance is almost impossible to measure. So when I pick Payton, I do so with a combination of wishful thinking and recognition of reality. He is a very good coach, I’d say one of the best three in the league alongside Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh. He also has narrative on his side, everyone in the media still feeling a bit bad for him after his year long suspension. If the Saints grab the one seed and no team makes a stunning worst to first improvement, he will probably take home the award.

Offensive Player of the Year: QB Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Barring the occasional record setting season by a quarterback, this has become an award intended to recognize the best non-MVP offensive player. Drew Brees has won it twice for seasons in which he was great-but-not-as-great-as-Manning-or-Rodgers. Chris Johnson won it the year he went for 2000 yards, and Manning won it the year Adrian Peterson went for 2000 yards. Hell, the year Manning and Steve McNair shared the MVP, neither won offensive player of the year. It went to Jamal Lewis who, incidentally, ran for 2000 yards. I say the award goes to Manning this year, as a sort of guilty acknowledgement of another great season by voters who are sick of giving him the MVP.

Defensive Player of the Year: S Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans Saints

This one is way out on a limb. There are plenty of usual suspects who could claim this. JJ Watt  and Robert Quinn will be as dominant as ever, but people will still (stupidly) hold it against them that their teams didn’t make the playoffs. Von Miller has a chance on a rejuvenated Broncos defense, but the success of their offense will distract people from his side of the ball. I think there is a strong chance that Patrick Willis can clinch the award for the first time in his career. He has always been considered one of the best defenders in the league, and for much of this season he will be forced to carry the defense on his own with the absences of Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman. But I’ll take a risk here and go with Vaccaro.

The past two seasons this award has gone to a second year player who made a significant leap from a successful rookie year. JJ Watt won it in 2012 when he started eating planets, and Luke Keuchly was given the award last year after Carolina’s surprising defensive emergence. I think something similar will happen with Vaccaro, one of the better rookies to come out of the 2013 draft. New Orleans will be the best team in the NFC, in large part due to improvements on defense that began last year with the emergence of Cameron Jordan. With Jairus Byrd added to man the deep middle Rob Ryan will have tremendous freedom to send Vaccaro zipping around the field in a role similar to a young Troy Polamalu. He will accumulate a lot of tackles, force a few fumbles, and grab several interceptions as the Saints improve to an above average defense. 

MVP: QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

I expect Manning, Rodgers, and Brees to have roughly equivalent seasons, so this award will ultimately come down to how the voters are feeling. After giving the award to Manning five times they will likely be sick of him, and he will be measured unfairly against the standard he set last season. Rodgers has a shot as well, but he will be hurt by the fact that his team finishes behind the Saints in the conference. It also won’t help that there will be people saying profoundly stupid things like, “The Packers made the playoffs last year with Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn at quarterback.” Yes, there are some very stupid people in the world, and yes, some of them actually have a say in these awards.

I think it will go to Brees because he will make the best story. Of the three he is the only one without an MVP already, and the voters will want to reward him for a career of excellent work. It will help that his team is likely the best in the NFC, and that he has prime time games against the Cowboys, Packers, and Bears to put up some impressive performances in front of the entire league. With Cooks and Jimmy Graham manning the slot he will have plenty of easy passes available to him, with lots of yards added after the catch to bolster his numbers and make him the MVP.

Super Bowl

Broncos over Saints

Call me predictable for picking my top two seeds to face off in the Super Bowl. I don’t care. These are the two teams that went all in on a championship this season, and these are the two best teams in the NFL. Both are known for their offense but boast quietly strong defenses. Both are led by veteran quarterbacks with championship experience, both of whom are aching to get a second title to shut up those idiots who measure quarterbacks by Super Bowl victories. Both will benefit greatly from home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and I don’t think either will have much trouble rolling through the first two playoff games before reaching the Super Bowl.

For the game itself I’m picking Denver primarily because of their advantage on defense. They were incapable of stopping the Seahawks in this game last year, but that was with a completely different defense. Only four of their current starters played in last year’s Super Bowl, and they have improved at almost every position. The one thing that could keep New Orleans in the game is the advantage at head coach, but I don’t think that is enough to make up for Denver’s superiority at essentially every position. The Broncos were a Super Bowl team last year with a defense that was merely average before it lost most of its best players. This year they will have one of the ten best defenses in the league, and they should be the heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl.

NFC North Preview

At long last my preview series reaches its end, with the division nearest and dearest to my heart. The NFC North is a division all about offense, boasting the best receivers, quarterbacks, and running backs of any division in the NFL. There are going to be a lot of points scored in this division this year, so sit back and enjoy the ride.

Green Bay Packers

Reason to be excited: Aaron Rodgers

I’m not as high on the rest of Green Bay’s roster as many people, but as long as they have a healthy Rodgers, they will be in a position to compete for a championship. He can make a shaky offensive line look competent. He can turn receivers who are merely above average into superstars. He can take a team that would struggle to win half their games without him and make them an easy pick as the division champions. We saw what happened when he wasn’t around last year, and the result isn’t pretty, but there is no reason to believe he will miss any time this season. Rodgers will be healthy, Rodgers will be great, and Rodgers will give the Packers the division title.

Reason to be nervous: Receiver Depth

One of the skills that separates Rodgers from the lesser quarterbacks in the league is his ability to move through his reads and distribute the ball to any target available on the field. Early in his career he was able to do this with great success, throwing to the deepest receiving group in the league, but the years have slowly eaten away at their receiving corps, leaving them with an extremely top heavy stable of weapons. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones have all moved on, leaving them with Jarrett Boykin as their third receiver. Jermichael Finley never lived up to the hype, but he was a far better receiver than Andrew Quarless. Eddie Lacy doesn’t add much as a receiver, and for the first time in his career Rodgers may be looking at a field with only two quality targets to throw to. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are among the top ten receiving duos in the league, but behind them the Packers don’t have much to work with.

Impact Rookie: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

The Packers have a few good players at cornerback, but their safety position has been an utter nightmare since the loss of Nick Collins. It’s a bit of a surprise that Clinton-Dix hasn’t already moved into the starting lineup, but by the end of the season he will undoubtedly be playing a major role in this defense. His unflashy competence will be a major help to the back end of their defense, giving their talented cornerbacks more leeway to play aggressive and go for turnovers. Clinton-Dix won’t be in contention for Defensive Rookie of the Year, but having a merely average safety will be a major boost for Green Bay’s defense.

Player to Watch: Julius Peppers

Green Bay has spent years looking for a pass rusher opposite Clay Matthews. They’ve spent first round picks on Nick Perry and Datone Jones, neither of whom have found any success getting to the quarterback. They’ve seen flashes from less heralded players, but none have managed to stick. Finally they decided to do a very un-Packers thing, bringing in a big name player in free agency. Peppers has been a dominant pass rusher for years now, but he is quickly reaching the end of his career. Last year he had clearly lost a step, gathering only 7.5 sacks as the one player on Chicago’s defense who managed to stay healthy. The Packers have to be hoping that this was just a one year thing, that he will be back to something near his old self this year. Unfortunately, I think he will have only more troubles as he is forced to play as a stand up linebacker for the first time in his career. If everything goes right Peppers could be the piece to put this defense over the top, but I think it’s more likely that he’s just another failed experiment.

Prediction:

Green Bay has the best quarterback in the NFC, and that is enough to turn them into Super Bowl contenders. On the whole their team can’t match up with Seattle, San Francisco, New Orleans, or even Philadelphia, but the advantage at the quarterback position is enough to make up the difference with most of these teams. They will face only mild competition to win their division, and I would be surprised if they didn’t earn a first round bye. There are issues with this team that make me question how deep they will be able to go against the tough competition of the NFC, but with Rodgers at the helm anything is possible. Green Bay is sitting in the middle of its championship window, a window that will likely remain open for at least the next three years.

Chicago Bears

Reason to be excited: Triple Towers

I’ve always been a fan of big receivers, and Chicago has the biggest collection of receivers in the NFL. Alshonn Jeffery is the shortest of their top three receivers, and he plays much taller than his 6’3” listing. Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett don’t quite have his ability to pluck balls out of the sky, but they both have large catch radii that most quarterbacks can only find in dreams. Most importantly, these three receivers complement each other perfectly. Jeffery excels at deep balls, Bennett works the tough spaces in the middle, and Marshall is fantastic at making the most out of shorter routes. Their passing game can attack defenses at any level of the field with bodies that most defenders simply cannot match up against.

Reason to be nervous: Depth

Injuries destroyed the Bears last season, and they could very easily do the same this year. This team is incredibly top heavy, relying on a small core of players while weathering mediocrity across most of their roster. If Jay Cutler goes down again, they have to suffer through Jimmy Clausen. If Matt Forte gets injured, their choices are Shaun Draughn and Ka’Deem Carey. Their backup wide receivers are Josh Morgan and Santonion Holmes, and on defense their backup unit consists mostly of the players who were so wretched last season. A couple years of good drafting could build this into a team that can weather injuries, but for now they can only hope that everything goes right.

Impact Rookie: Brock Vereen

As bad as Green Bay’s safeties have been, Chicago’s were significantly worse. And unlike the Packers, the Bears did not invest in a safety with their first round selection (they used it on cornerback Kyle Fuller, who will give them more flexibility in their secondary if they decide to move Charles Tillman to safety, a smart move in the long run.) Instead they waited for the fourth round to select Vereen out of Minnesota, a prospect who has received rave reviews since joining the team. He hasn’t earned a starting role yet, but with only Ryan Mundy and Danny McCray ahead of him it is bound to happen within the next couple weeks. It isn’t ideal to be relying on a fourth round pick to come in and start, but if the reports from training camp are accurate, Chicago may have found one of the steals of the draft.

Player to Watch: Lamarr Houston

Versatility is the biggest trend among defensive linemen in the current NFL. Every team is trying to institute some hybrid scheme in their defensive front, and versatile players like Muhammad Wilkerson and Calais Campbell are receiving praise as some of the best defensive players in the game. Houston has only avoided being mentioned in this same category by the ill fortune of playing in Oakland, and now that he has escaped he will be appreciated as one of the finest players in the game. He will bolster Chicago’s wretched run defense while also being their best pass rusher, pressuring the quarterback either up the middle or around the edge. His versatility will allow the Bears to be more creative on defense, giving their coordinators a chance to hide their vulnerabilities through clever scheming.

Prediction:

The Bears will be a fringe playoff contender, as they have been for the past five years. They clearly aren’t on a level to compete with Rodgers and the Packers, but they are a step above both the other teams in the division. Their season will swing on health, a game or two likely being decided by the performance of their backups. Last season Cutler was the only starter on their offense to miss a game, good fortune that will not repeat this season. This will be partially offset by better health on the defensive side of the ball, but I’m not sure their starters on defense are strong enough to compensate for any major losses on offense. The Bears will make the playoffs if they can stay healthy, but they will falter if any of their star players misses significant time.

Minnesota Vikings

 

Reason to be excited: Emergence of Superstars

The core of most NFL rosters is built through the middle round of the draft, but the first round is where the superstars come from. A few great players slide through the cracks every year, but for the most part the best talents are identified and taken off the board early on. If a team wants dominant players, they need to get them in the first round. This is the philosophy the Vikings have used over the past few seasons, accumulating seven first round picks in the past three years. In 2012 they took Harrison Smith and Matt Kalil, the latter of which made the Pro Bowl his rookie year. Last year they selected Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Cordarrelle Patterson. This year they added Anthony Barr and Teddy Bridgewater. The last two are rookies and still face a lot of development, but the others are entering the best years of their career, when their potential should explode into productivity. There is very little in the NFL more fun than watching superstars emerge on a roster, and right now the Vikings have several in fantastic position to take the next step.

Reason to be nervous: Bust Potential

Vikings fans don’t have particularly high hopes for this season, besides seeing how their young players develop. Even if they miss the playoffs, positive growth will be enough for this season to be considered a success. But there is always a level of uncertainty involved with the development of players, and there are plenty of warning signs to be wary of for the coming season. Patterson still hasn’t shown consistent route running ability. Rhodes has injury issues, and there was talk this offseason that Floyd doesn’t fit what the new coaches want for their scheme. Most troubling of all, Kalil had a highly disappointing second year and has struggled mightily during the preseason. They have enough talent that they can weather one bust, but anything more than that will cripple this team’s future.

Impact Rookie: Teddy Bridgewater

Bridgewater is ready to start right now, but he’s going to have to wait until after Matt Cassel craps out. That shouldn’t take long, with early season games against the defenses of St Louis, New England, New Orleans, and Green Bay. Bridgewater will likely take over as starter somewhere in the first half of the season, potentially early enough to get his name into the Rookie of the Year discussion. He certainly has enough weapons to work with, throwing to an underrated receiving corps and handing the ball to one of the best backs in the league. There will be some struggles of course, and fans probably can’t hope for the same sort of success Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, and Andrew Luck found two years ago. But he will likely have the best season of any rookie quarterback in the league, and he will give them hope for the seasons down the road.

Player to Watch: Harrison Smith

Smith is one of the highly touted rookies I listed above, both the best and most unheralded of the seven. A late first round pick in 2012, Smith was a starter from day one and had a highly successful rookie season. From the beginning of his second season he was the best player on Minnesota’s defense, and when he missed eight games because of a turf toe injury, their defense completely fell apart. He is as complete a player as any safety in the league, a devastating force in run defense and a ground eating monster in deep coverage. Of their seven first rounders he is the one I am most confident will develop into a Pro Bowl caliber player this season, and he is the piece they should be constructing their defense around.

Prediction:

Everything I covered above involved players selected in the past three drafts, and that is what this team is all about. Adrian Peterson is still the best player on the roster, but he is no longer the heart of the team’s plan. They are building for the future for the first time in several years, understanding that they are not ready to compete this season. If everything breaks right a playoff berth isn’t out of the question, but in the competitive NFC it will likely take them more than a single year to get things turned around. They should enjoy what they can get out of this season and keep their hopes fixed down the road, knowing their future is as bright as any team’s.

Detroit Lions

Reason to be excited: New Toys for Stafford

Stafford has always had decent weapons to work with (any offense with Calvin Johnson is always fine,) but this season for the first time he has a genuinely deep stable of talent to throw the ball to. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell combined last year to put up one of the most productive receiving seasons out of the backfield in NFL history. They drafted the most gifted tight end to come into the league in the past four years, and they added the underrated Golden Tate in free agency. With a strong offensive line in front of him there will be no more excuses for Stafford. If he doesn’t put up superstar numbers this season, the quarterback position becomes a problem for Detroit.

Reason to be nervous: Defense

Detroit’s defense killed them last year, and they did essentially nothing to improve it this season. They turned their below average safeties into slightly less below average safeties, and they released their top cornerback Chris Houston. The only other notable news is the continuing drama with Nick Fairley, who may or may not contribute to the team this year. I don’t think it matters. Unless Ziggy Ansah turns into a dominant pass rusher, this defense has too many holes to support anything other than a top five offense. They have no one reliable to cover receivers, no one to rush the passer from the outside, and only a single decent linebacker. Ndamukong Suh is still a great player, but surrounded by mediocrity and incompetence at every position, he alone is not enough to make this a competent unit.

Impact Rookie: Eric Ebron

With Kyle Van Noy out for at least the first six weeks, it looks like the only rookie with a genuine chance to contribute to the Lions is their first round pick, the tight end out of North Carolina. Fortunately, Ebron has the skills and the talent to make him a perfect fit for their offensive system. He is the most athletic tight end to come into the league since Vernon Davis, and he has receiving skills as developed as any tight end since Rob Gronkowski. He can run routes from the end of the line, split wide, or in the slot, and he can take short passes a long distance once he has the ball in his hands. He’s an inconsistent blocker, but he’s better than people give him credit for. Even if he never becomes the official starter, he will see plenty of time in two tight end sets with the stone handed Brandon Pettigrew.

Player to Watch: Larry Warford

Keenan Allen was the best offensive rookie in the league last year, but Warford was a very close second. As an offensive guard he didn’t receive as much attention as skill position players like Lacy and Patterson, but he contributed more to his team than either of these players. He was a crucial piece of the Detroit line’s transition from a major questionmark to a reliable, functional unit. Matthew Stafford posted the lowest sack rate of his career, and they found reasonable rushing success from their combo of Bush and Bell. Warford was the best player on this line, the rare rookie guard who excels both in run and pass blocking. It’s impossible to predict when and how linemen will receive recognition, but I expect Warford will be a Pro Bowl player at the end of the 2014 season.

Prediction:

The division was essentially delivered into Detroit’s lap last season by the injury to Rodgers and the collapse of Chicago’s defense, and they still managed to blow it. Everything that could have gone right for them did go right, and now it looks like their window is closing. They replaced a bad coach with one who might be even worse, and they did essentially nothing to repair the flawed defense that cost them last year. Their playoff chances look grim, but I wouldn’t say they are out of the question. They still have a very talented offense (even if it is the third or fourth best in the division,) and Stafford still has the potential to take a major step forward. This is a team with a very large range of possibilities, but I think that in the end they will be exactly what they have been the past few seasons. Another year drafting in the top ten seems likely, and this time they will absolutely have to invest in young talent on the defensive side of the ball.

AFC North Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers

Reason to be excited: Offensive Line Stability

There is very little more important to an offensive line than continuity. Even a bad offensive line can find some success if they’re used to working together, and even a good one can struggle if they can’t communicate. The Steelers have invested a lot of high picks in linemen over the past few seasons, and right now it would be difficult to call any of them bad players. But injuries have crippled their development, as the team has had to start 24 different offensive line combinations over the past three seasons. But as their line stabilized late last season their offense really took off, and if they can remain healthy this year they will be an extremely productive team both on the ground and through the air.

Reason to be nervous: Run Defense

For years the Steelers could always count on the ability to stop opposing rushers, thanks largely to the massive mountain in the middle of their defense that was Casey Hampton. But Hampton retired a couple years ago, and they haven’t had any luck finding a replacement for him. They don’t have a true nose tackle on the roster, forcing them to make do with a couple of defensive ends who have added weight to their frames. Their two interior linebackers are known more for their athleticism than their strength, and they can no longer count on Troy Polamalu’s freakish speed to come up in support against the run. A powerful interior running game can gash this defense and control the ball, preventing their streaky offense from establishing any sort of rhythm.

Impact Rookie: Ryan Shazier

Shazier will have some issues this season, but he will also put up a lot of big numbers. He is part of their weakness against the run, an undersized linebacker who will struggle to beat blockers in tight spaces. But he can absolutely fly, probably the fastest linebacker in the league right now. He will make plays from sideline to sideline and accumulate a huge number of tackles, and he will probably add several sacks and a couple interceptions. His numbers will be enough for most people to overlook his deficiencies, and right now I think he’s the favorite to go home with Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Player to Watch: David DeCastro

I addressed their offensive line above, and DeCastro may be the most crucial piece of this. He was one of the most highly touted guard prospects in years coming out of Stanford, but he struggled through his rookie season thanks to a knee injury that cost him all but three games. He got off to a slow start last year, but after week four he was one of the best guards in the league. He is a powerful force in the running game, and he has the sort of nastiness that every offensive line coach loves to see, holding his blocks a second past every whistle. With him working next to Maurkice Pouncey the Steelers could have one of the best interiors in the NFL.

Prediction:

The Steelers are not among the class of the AFC, but they are the class of this division. Their offense is head and shoulders above any other in the division, and it will only be better if their offensive line can stay healthy and they can find a consistent running game. They still have plenty of holes they need to patch—their defense is shaky, and they need to find someone other than Antonio Brown in the passing game—but having the best quarterback means a lot in the current NFL, and Ben Roethlisberger is indisputably the best quarterback in the AFC North. This is a team that should make the playoffs, and they have the sort of talent needed to make a surprise run towards the Super Bowl.

Baltimore Ravens

Reason to be excited: Offensive Regression

We often talk about regression in the context of overachieving teams falling back to earth, but it works the other way as well. The Ravens were atrocious offensively last year, to the point that they can’t possibly be as bad this season. Based on Football Outsider’s rankings they had the two worst running backs in the league, and Joe Flacco had the most ineffective season of his career. Even if Ray Rice doesn’t return to the player he used to be, he can’t be as bad as he was last year. Even if Flacco doesn’t live up to his contract, he will still play better than in 2013. This offense is no longer one of the bottom five in the league, and that improvement may be enough to push them into the playoffs in the miserable AFC.

Reason to be nervous: Front Seven

Baltimore’s success over the past decade has been built on its defensive front. Ray Lewis received all the attention, but they received nearly as much from Tony Siragusa, Peter Boulware, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs. Most of those players are gone now—Suggs and Ngata are still around, but they are shells of their former selves—and they’ve had little success finding their replacements up front. Their young players haven’t stepped up yet, and they will need rookies like CJ Mosley and Timmy Jernigan to have immediate impacts, in addition to seeing development from players like Courtney Upshaw. I’m not confident they will get this, and I suspect their defense will continue to decline.

Impact Rookie: Lorenzo Taliaferro

The Ravens had a historically bad running game last season, and I see little reason to expect it to miraculously recover this year. Even with the regression I addressed above, I don’t expect they will put up with Rice and Bernard Pierce averaging fewer than four yards a carry for very long. Eventually they will look elsewhere for production, turning to the rookie they selected in the fourth round. Taliaferro is an interesting prospect, a small school running back ideally suited to the one cut running of their new zone scheme. Their offensive coordinator is Gary Kubiak, who was the coordinator in Denver for years as Mike Shanahan churned out productive rookie running backs. If Rice and Pierce don’t pick up their production, Taliaferro will get a chance to show off his skills in this scheme.

Player to Watch: Lardarius Webb

Baltimore’s front seven has issues, but they have built a solid secondary behind it. Matt Elam had a decent rookie season at safety, and Jimmy Smith finally came into his own after a couple disappointing seasons. But the best player in their secondary is one who missed most of last year thanks to a torn ACL. Webb has a history of injury issues, and there are reasons to be concerned about how he will return (he has already missed the entire preseason with a back injury.) But before he was injured he was the best coverage man on Baltimore’s roster, on his way to becoming one of the better cornerbacks in the league. If he can return at his old level of play, the Ravens will likely be able to put together an average defense on the strength of their secondary.

Prediction:

After a down season, Baltimore will likely make their way into the playoffs again. A slight improvement over last year and a weak conference will push them over the top, even though this team still isn’t anywhere near the level they were at during their Super Bowl run. They have the benefit of a good head coach and an average quarterback, enough to get any team over the hump in the top heavy AFC. They aren’t capable of competing with the top teams like Denver and New England, but they might be able to win the first game of the playoffs before being trounced by one of the heavyweights.

Cincinnati Bengals

Reason to be excited: Return of Geno Atkins

Atkins was one of the five best defensive players in the NFL before he tore his ACL, and I don’t think he’ll lose a step on his return. It is incredible that we live in a world where the three best defensive tackles all came from the 2010 draft--with the second pick, the third pick, and the 120^th pick. Atkins was the last of these, falling because of his less than desirable size. But in the NFL he has shown speed and technique that more than make up for his diminutive stature, becoming the best interior pass rusher in the NFL. There might be some concerns about his injury or about the change in defensive coordinator, but his talent is enough to silence any of these questions.

Reason to be nervous: Coaching Transitions

It is difficult to measure the impact of a coordinator until he’s gone. The Bengals saw both coordinators leave to take head coaching jobs this season, Jay Gruden in Washington and Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. The loss of Gruden might not be a terrible thing, giving Andy Dalton a fresh perspective to try to add tools to his game. The loss of Zimmer could very well be devastating to a defense that has carried this team for the past few years despite lacking exceptional talent. Zimmer has proven to be one of the best coordinators in the league, and we can’t be certain if they will find the same success under Paul Guenther, who hasn’t been a coordinator in the NFL since 1997.

Impact Rookie: Russell Bodine

The Bengals have had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL over the past few years, but they went through quite a bit of turmoil on the unit last season. Star left tackle Andrew Whitworth was forced to move in to play left guard, leaving Anthony Collins to take over protecting the blind side. They handled this wonderfully, but Collins left as a free agent, robbing them of their depth and flexibility. They need someone reliable to play guard so Whitworth can continue to man the tackle position, and they may have found it in Bodine, their fourth round pick out of North Carolina. Bodine doesn’t fit the mold of the new, athletic guards in the league, but his old fashioned style fits what Cincinnati likes to do. He led the combine with 42 reps on the bench, and he will use his strength to pave holes for their two young running backs to run through.

Player to Watch: Margus Hunt

Hunt may be the most freakish athlete in the NFL. He is 6’8”, 280 pounds, and ran a 4.6 in the forty at the combine. He was a second round pick despite never playing football before he reached college—he was at SMU as a discuss thrower and decided to go out for football when the track team was eliminated. He contributed very little his rookie year, but it looks like this season the Bengals are planning on getting him into the rotation at defensive end. He’s still listed as a backup for now, but Cincinnati always uses a fairly deep rotation on their line. He should eventually slide into the role of departed Michael Johnson, another freakish athlete who lacked elite pass rushing skills.

Prediction:

Cincinnati is bound to take a major step back this season, and they will likely miss the playoffs for the first time since drafting AJ Green and Andy Dalton. The loss of their coordinators is a big deal, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Their secondary is a point of concern, with a cornerback unit filled with aging veterans and undeveloped young talents. Until they complete the transition to Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard they will give up a lot of opportunities through the air. Their offense is still too reliant on AJ Green, and I don’t see Dalton taking a step forward to justify his massive new contract. This team may be able to sneak in as the final Wild Card team, but I think they will end up on the outside looking in and searching for a new head coach.

Cleveland Browns

 

Reason to be excited: Johnny Football

Manziel will be the starting quarterback of the Browns at some point this season. My money is on Week 7, after Hoyer has struggled through games against the Saints, the Ravens, the Titans, and two against the Steelers. This would actually be the ideal time for him to come in, with back to back games against the Jaguars and the Raiders. Whenever he does take over as the starting quarterback, it will certainly be entertaining. I think Manziel will be a good long term answer at quarterback, but he will probably struggle quite a bit his rookie season. But the Browns weren’t going anywhere with or without him, and his occasional flashes of brilliance will at least give their fans something to enjoy.

Reason to be nervous: Offensive Skill Talent

When Manziel finally does take over, he’s not going to be put in a great position to succeed. Much has been made about Cleveland’s talent void at the wide receiver position, but I don’t see much to like anywhere else among their offensive weapons. Jordan Cameron exploded early last season, but over the final twelve games he managed fewer than six hundred yards and only two touchdowns. Ben Tate is supposed to be the savior of their atrocious running game, despite never having shown himself to be a reliable starting running back. This offense is going to be bad no matter who plays quarterback, and they will need Manziel to make a lot of plays on his own if they want to put up points.

Impact Rookie: Terrance West

West was one of the more popular names as a rookie sleeper a month ago, before he had an absolutely disastrous preseason. He averaged only 2.7 yards per carry, ending up with fewer rushing yards during the four games than Manziel. But I still have faith that he will have a strong rookie campaign, perhaps even supplanting Tate as the starter by the end of the season. Last year Cleveland was the worst rushing attack in the league (they only managed 93 yards against the Bears!) but they have the pieces up front to support a strong running attack. Even if Tate doesn’t work out as they hope, West can take some of the load from him.

Player to Watch: Jabaal Sheard

Sheard has been one of the more interesting prospects in football the past few seasons. He was a second round selection in 2011, starting right away and accumulating 8 sacks over his first season. He added another 7.5 in his second season but managed only 5.5 last year as he was forced to change positions with Cleveland's transition to a 3-4 scheme. What looks like a steady decline in production could very easily be a mask concealing his readiness for a breakout season, as he becomes more adjusted to their defense and finds himself rushing opposite last year’s first round pick Barkevious Mingo. Head coach Mike Pettine led one of the best pass rushes in the league last year in Buffalo, and he should be able to get the most out of his young talent. Sheard will probably never develop into an elite pass rusher, but I expect he will rack up double digit sacks this year.

Prediction:

The Browns have put together one of the best young defenses in the NFL, and with Pettine taking over as head coach it should only be better. He will get the most out of their deep pass rush, and he will smooth the holes in Joe Haden’s game to put him on the same level as the top cornerbacks Revis, Sherman, and Peterson. The best defense in the division will reside in Cleveland this season, but it won’t be enough to overcome their woeful offense. Even if Manziel comes in early in the season and develops into a dangerous playmaker, he still doesn’t have the talent around him to lead a productive system. This team has plenty of reasons to be hopeful for the future (including Buffalo’s first round pick next year), but they will have to spend another season looking forward to the draft.