In Defense of the Pro Bowl

Championship Sunday was last weekend, but the Super Bowl is still not for another nine days. For the first Sunday since September, we will have to try to find a way to get through the weekend without football. I suppose that the NHL and NBA are in full swing, and if you’re the type of person who has friends you can probably spend some time with them.

Or, if you’re like me, you can watch the Pro Bowl. Because while there may not be any football on this weekend, you can find something that bears a passing resemblance. The Pro Bowl has gotten a lot of heat in recent years, and calls for it to be abolished are only growing louder with each additional season. There is some justification behind that. Many players don’t want to risk injury and choose not to attend, and those that do play take things as easy as possible. Defense is optional, tackling is frowned upon, and the two lines seem to compete to see who can give the least effort possible.

But I’m not here to write about that. We’ve all heard those arguments, and we’ve all come to accept them. And while I agree that many of these points are valid, I find myself defending the Pro Bowl’s existence. Because even though it isn’t football, it is still a reasonably fun way to kill a few hours on a Sunday night.

The NFL has instituted a number of changes this year in an effort to make the game more entertaining, and it will be interesting to see how they pan out. This season instead of dividing based on conferences the teams were selected by a pair of captains picking one after the other to put together their rosters. In case you were at all curious, here are the rosters for Sunday’s game. 

There are a number of intriguing angles we could take from these rosters, the best being rarely seen matchups of teammates playing against each other. Patrick Peterson and Larry Fitzgerald could match up head to head. Jordan Gross and Ryan Kalil will have to find some way to slow down the nightmarish creature that is Greg Hardy. Who doesn’t want to see if Robert Mathis will have the nerve to sack Andrew Luck?

The other rule changes haven’t gotten as much attention, but they could prove just as interesting. One in particular is a disastrous idea—the elimination of kickoffs—that we can only hope won’t find its way into real games (it probably will within the next ten years.) Some are minor timing issues, such as starting the clock after an incomplete pass or shortening the play clock. Another minor rule change that most won’t notice is the allowance of press coverage and Cover-2, schemes that were previously banned from the Pro Bowl.

But they have made one major change that should affect the way this game is played in a positive manner. Each quarter will begin with the ball changing hands, as it does following halftime in a normal game. Timing in the final two minutes of the first and third quarters will now be the same as at the end of the second and fourth, a two minute warning after which all out of bounds plays stop the clock. The idea behind this is to create two new opportunities for the teams to run their two minute offenses, probably the most exciting part of the game of football.

All these rule changes could help make the game more interesting, but they don’t have anything to do with the most significant draw of the Pro Bowl. Because this game is meaningless, this is the one chance a year we get to watch these players simply go out onto a football field and have fun. Every other game they have to take seriously, but with the Pro Bowl no one cares whether they win or lose. Under no pressure, these players are allowed to attempt things they would normally never consider.

Check out this play from 2011. In it you can see examples of everything that is wrong with the Pro Bowl. The defensive line doesn’t bother rushing so the offensive line doesn’t try to block. The defenders make next to no effort trying to actually bring the ball carrier to the ground. In every way this play is a disgrace to the sport of football, until the very end.

Yes, that is Cleveland center Alex Mack taking the lateral, heroically sprinting down the field, and diving into the endzone. As a former center (who actually did score a touchdown in his nine year football career) this warms my heart. In the normal game he would never have the football with a chance to run, and if he ever did he would search out the quickest way to get on the ground. But the Pro Bowl is not a normal game, and it allowed him his moment of glory.

Or take for example this next play by Phil Dawson from last season’s Pro Bowl. As a kicker, you know he spends most of his time in practice attempting ridiculous maneuvers like this, but no sane coach would ever let him try it in a regular game. Sure it was an abysmal failure, only going seven yards, but it was a lighthearted moment that showed a professional football player experimenting with his craft.

Another great moment from last season’s game: Jeff Saturday switching teams to give one final snap to his long time quarterback Peyton Manning. Both had moved on to new teams, but both will always be remembered for the long years spent together in Indianapolis. It was fitting that Saturday’s career ended how it began, snapping the ball to Manning. It didn’t matter that this was against the rules of the game, that the invitation of Saturday to the event was a joke in and of itself. It was just a neat moment that football fans everywhere appreciated.

Or how about this from last year. Who among us hasn’t wondered who would win a jump ball between Jason Pierre-Paul and JJ Watt, two of the premier young athletes in the league? Well we finally got our chance to see.

And the answer was Jason Pierre-Paul. Apparently the ability to win a jump ball has no relevance to actual ability to play defensive end.

Let’s go back to 2011 one last time. Take a look at the picture below and tell me what you see. Just a regular old touchdown by Larry Fitzgerald against a blown coverage, right? Well look closer and tell me who that is in coverage. That’s right, the AFC team decided to give wide receiver Antonio Brown a chance to cover one of the best receivers in the NFL, and it was an utter disaster. It just goes to show you that there is so much more than athleticism involved in being a successful player in the league.

The Pro Bowl isn’t real football. I think we can all agree on that. But even though it isn’t football of the same quality we expect to see on Super Bowl Sunday, there are plenty of ways to still enjoy the game. If you have the time to kill and you have the stomach to stand up to the mockery of your friends, sit down and watch the Pro Bowl this Sunday. Look past the invisible pass rush, look past the poor tackling, look past the nonexistent coverage. And just enjoy the rare spectacle placed before you for what it is.

Adaptability and Failure

My favorite thing about the NFL playoffs is the randomness involved. It seems strange to highlight this in a season that has seen the two highest seeded (and the two best) teams make the Super Bowl, but the design of the NFL playoffs makes it possible for teams that aren’t necessarily the best to emerge as champions. Since the tournament is single elimination, since every game involves both teams playing for their seasons, a play here or there can wildly affect the outcomes of a game. An unlucky bounce on a fumble can give an underdog the victory. A low percentage-high upside play can eliminate a team that has been dominant throughout the regular season.

And yet this year the top two teams have made it to the Super Bowl, somehow avoiding the random misfortune that seems to strike at this time of year. How have the Seahawks and the Broncos managed to survive to this point? I’ll get to that, but first I want to take this chance to talk about the two teams that were eliminated this weekend.

So Close…

 

I’m not a fan of the Patriots or the 49ers, so I can’t say for certain what they are thinking right now. But I have to imagine that fans of these two teams are having very different reactions to how this season went. It seems strange to say that about two teams that came in with similar aspirations and went out at the same stage of the season, but given everything that has happened I would imagine most Patriots fans will eventually come to appreciate this season while fans of the 49ers will remain devastated for years to come.

For both teams this was just another devastating defeat to add to a recent trend. Ten years ago Patriots won three Super Bowls over a span of four seasons, but since then they have advanced to five AFC Championship Games without being able to get over the hump. Four times they have been knocked out by a Manning brother, and last year they fell to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Ravens. In a way Tom Brady is fortunate (in a lot of ways, actually. He’s rich, talented, handsome, and has a gorgeous wife) that he managed to win those Super Bowls early in his career. Because since the 2004 season he has the sort of playoff résumé that would earn any other quarterback the reputation of a postseason choke artist.

San Francisco’s run of disappointment doesn’t go back as far, but they don’t have the recent Super Bowl success to fall back on either. Two years ago they hosted the NFC Championship Game and outplayed their opponents, only to lose in overtime thanks to a pair of fumbled punt returns by their backup Kyle Williams. Last season they made the Super Bowl and came within five yards of taking the lead in the final two minutes. And now this year, against division rival Seattle, they came in and outplayed their opponent only to be done in by three fourth quarter turnovers and a touchdown scored on what was essentially a Hail Mary.

Both teams have every right to be devastated based on recent history, but in New England there are mitigating circumstances. Over the course of the season the Patriots lost to injury their best defensive lineman, linebacker, and offensive lineman. An offense that was designed around a pair of physically overwhelming tight ends had to be restructured when one tight end was injured and the other was arrested. They tried to transition to a run heavy offense, but their best running back had to be taken out of the lineup due to fumbling issues. They were starting a defense of rookies and practice squad players and an offense made up of special teams contributors.

The lone constants in their team were Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and somehow that was enough to bring them to the AFC Championship Game. Brady didn’t have his best season statistically, but he made plays when they needed made and protected the ball when a punt was acceptable. Belichick was masterful, and it’s unfortunate he won’t get many votes for Coach of the Year. He got fantastic production from a pair of Buccaneers castoffs in LeGarrette Blount and Aqib Talib. He scrapped together a quality defense despite the pieces he was forced to deal with. It wasn’t enough to get them over the top, but a spot among the last four teams alive has to be considered a success.

The 49ers have no such means of consolation, but they do have one upside to look to that the Patriots don’t: the future. In New England they probably only have another three or four years of Brady at most, and Belichick is old enough that he could choose to retire once he no longer has an elite quarterback to work with. There is some young talent on their roster to be excited about, but it is hard to see anything resembling the core of a championship caliber team. Thanks to Belichick and Brady they have had a very long championship window, but that window won’t be open much longer. Even considering the mitigating circumstances, their season has to feel like a wasted opportunity.

On the other hand, San Francisco is right at the beginning of what could be a similarly extended championship window. Jim Harbaugh is a brilliant coach just beginning a run of dominance. They have a young core of talent in place, with Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, Joe Staley, and Anthony Davis all locked up for multiple years on reasonable deals. And most importantly, they have a talented young quarterback in Colin Kaepernick.

Let’s take a couple paragraphs to discuss Colin Kaepernick. It is unfortunate that the lasting memories most people will have of him from this game will be the three turnovers on the last three possessions. Because for most of the game he carried the 49ers’ offense on his own. San Francisco had 308 yards on the day, 277 of them accounted for by Kaepernick’s arm and legs. Against the best pass defense in the NFL the 49ers’ receivers were not able to get any separation, but Kaepernick managed to fit throws into incredibly tight windows. His touchdown pass to Anquan Boldin was one of the most incredible displays of athleticism, accuracy, and arm strength I have ever seen. Anyone who doesn’t believe that Kaepernick can be a long term answer at quarterback was silenced yesterday.

All that said, he still has a lot of work to do on his game. People have interpreted Joe Montana’s comments as criticisms of Kaepernick, but they could better be described as accurate suggestions for improvement. Kaepernick still struggles some in making reads from the pocket, as evidenced by the first interception he threw yesterday. He has to be more aware when he scrambles in order to avoid plays like the sack-fumble by Cliff Avril. But at the end of the game, he made the play he needed to make. I’ve heard discussion about the pass that was ultimately intercepted after the tip by Richard Sherman, but I believe it was an excellent decision and an excellent throw. He saw his best wide receiver matched up against single coverage, and he took a necessary chance needing a touchdown late in the game. He threw it on a line to the back shoulder in the hope that his receiver would make a play on the ball. And if Richard Sherman hadn’t made one of the best defensive plays I have ever seen, it would have been a touchdown. If he had mistimed his jump, if he had missed with his lunge for the ball, it would have hit Crabtree right in the hands and given him the chance to get both feet down in the endzone. He made a throw that was so good that only an elite defensive play could stop the 49ers from winning the game. It is just unfortunate that he was going after one of the five players in the league capable of making that play.

Which brings me to my next topic:

Richard Sherman

 

 The controversy surrounding Richard Sherman and his antics after the game doesn’t interest me as much as the games themselves, but I’ll address it briefly anyway. I have no issue with how Sherman carried himself in the interview after the game. I have no problem with him declaring, “I’m the best corner in the game.” Because he is, and he just made one of the best defensive plays I have ever seen to send his team to the Super Bowl. He deserves all the praise given to him as well as all the praise he gives to himself.

I found this interview both amusing and refreshing. The Fox Network knew what they were getting when they decided to interview Sherman. His reputation is well known across the league, and no one could have expected him to say anything other than what he did. And he shouldn’t have to. I’ve grown tired of these monotonous, repetitive post game interviews. I’ve grown tired of these players having to work to cultivate a public perception of humility. Some say it sincerely, but many players simply spew the “I would like to thank my parents, my teammates, and God” line as a way of trying to appear humble. These players have worked their entire lives to be the best in the world at what they do, and they shouldn’t have to pretend to not be proud of what they have accomplished.

That said, I do have a problem with the way Sherman behaved immediately following his interception. For those who didn’t see, Sherman made a choking gesture towards Kaepernick then went out of his way to slap Crabtree’s butt and taunt him to his face. He later referred to Crabtree as a “sorry receiver.” I don’t take issue with a player celebrating their own greatness, but I think it’s another matter entirely to belittle an opponent.

Sherman is a great figure to the NFL because, despite what he claims, he is a villain. Villains make things more interesting and more fun. I have been openly supporting the Broncos since the Vikings and the Steelers were eliminated, and the emergence of Sherman as a villain gives me even more reason to hope for them to win. Football is much more interesting when you can get emotionally invested in a game, and because of Sherman’s actions there are a great number of people who will watch the Super Bowl with a rooting interest who would have been indifferent otherwise.

Now, on to the football.

The Final Two

 

The narrative of a team overcoming adversity and winning a championship is the heart of every great sports story. Last season the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl despite losing four of their final five regular season games and changing offensive coordinators. Two years ago the Giants came from the Wild Card Round after having to win their final two games just to make the playoffs. In 2010 the Packers suffered major injuries across their team, and in 2009 the Saints managed to win the Super Bowl despite ending the regular season on a three game losing streak.

You can probably see what I’m getting at. It seems like every year there is some great adversity that strikes the team that ultimately goes on to win the Super Bowl. Sports writers fall over themselves exploiting these perfectly scripted stories. Fans give special appreciation to teams that fought so hard through so much difficulty. And there are always those who celebrate the adversity itself and give it credit for helping the team develop the toughness it needed to win the championship.

The truth is, every team faces adversity. This season the Broncos overcame injuries to major players at every level of their defense and a medical emergency that left them without their head coach for a month. The Seahawks lost three defensive contributors to suspensions and have suffered a series of injuries at wide receiver and on the offensive line. Whichever of these teams emerges victorious, expect to hear how these troubles gave them the strength and willpower necessary to win the championship.

While it makes a good story, there is no reason to draw a connection between adversity and success. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had to deal with two separate lawsuits from the NFLPA this season, and they finished 4-12. The Houston Texans faced medical crisis with their head coach just as the Broncos did, and they finished with the worst record in the league. The owner of the Tennessee Titans died during the season, but this didn’t give them the motivation to summon a late season playoff push.

Every team faces adversity. Teams like the Broncos and the Seahawks succeed because they are better suited to handle adversity. These teams are the last two remaining because they are the best and deepest rosters in the NFL. They do a number of things very well, and even if something happens to hurt them in one of these areas they have other capabilities to fall back on. Adaptability is the key to survival in the wild, and it is the key to success in the NFL.

If you asked a casual fan to explain what made these two teams great, they would likely tell you about the Broncos’ pass offense and the Seahawks’ pass defense. And they would be very justified in doing so. Behind Peyton Manning’s MVP performance the Broncos flew past the record for most points in a single season. They set the records for passing yards and passing touchdowns this season. Seattle was similarly impressive as a pass defense. It is hard to set defensive records in this offensive era, but when adjusted for the year the Seahawks were one of the five best pass defenses since the merger. They did this despite starting four different cornerbacks and despite missing two of their top pass rushers early in the season.

These two units alone would have made them playoff teams, but they are not the reason these teams are in the Super Bowl. Smart coaches can design gameplans to attack one dimensional teams, and many of the great pass offenses and defenses in history have failed to advance deep in the playoffs. These two teams have versatility most football fans don’t realize, and it is because of this versatility that they are still alive.

As goods as Denver’s passing attack has been, it is easy to look past the productive season Knowshon Moreno just put together. He had a career high 4.3 yards per attempt on his way to his first career 1000 yard season. He was fourth in the league with ten rushing touchdowns. This was behind an offensive line that suffered a number of serious injuries on an offense that gave the quarterback the opportunity to throw the ball whenever he desired. While Moreno certainly benefited from defenses aligned to stop the pass, he still deserves plenty of credit for the team’s offensive success.

Denver’s defense doesn’t receive a lot of attention. Their best known player is Von Miller, who only played in nine games this year due to a suspension and a torn ACL. During his suspension for the first six games of the season the Broncos struggled with a pass rush, but they were dominant against the run thanks to a stacked defensive front of Derek Wolfe, Terrance Knighton, and Kevin Vickerson. They would probably have gone back to that after Miller’s injury, except they are now without Wolfe and Vickerson for the rest of the year. With all the losses to their defense (including Rahim Moore and Chris Harris in the secondary) most people expected they would have to win games on the strength of their offense this postseason. Instead, their offense has been satisfied with fewer than 30 points in each game while their defense stepped up their performance. In the first three quarters of their two playoff games they have allowed a total of three points. Defensive linemen Terrance Knighton and Shaun Phillips—both free agents last offseason—are playing at an elite level, stuffing the line against the run and getting after the quarterback on pass plays. They are without five defensive starters, yet because of their depth and versatility their defense is playing as well as it has all season.

But if we’re going to talk about depth on defense, Seattle deserves to be at the front of that conversation. Most know them for their “Legion of Boom” secondary, specifically the best safety and cornerback in the league in Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman. Because of how great their secondary is, their front seven often gets overlooked. Their middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is a fantastic player who has made multiple spectacular, game altering plays this postseason. Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant are the two unsung heroes of the defense up front. Their pass rushing trio of Chris Clemons, Michael Bennett, and Cliff Avril is so formidable that they moved talented pass rusher Bruce Irvin to a more traditional linebacker role. They have been inconsistent against the run this year, but there have been several games in which they have absolutely shut down the opposition on the ground.

Seattle’s offense is as multi-dimensional as their defense. The two most notable players are Marshawn Lynch and mobile quarterback Russell Wilson, but they were just as good passing the ball this year as they were running it. Wilson has struggled over the past month, but for most of the year he played as a dynamic pocket passer who had the ability to escape if the situation dictated it. He uses his legs more like Aaron Rodgers than Colin Kaepernick, as a backup option rather than a fundamental part of his game. If the defense contains him well and forces him to play the entire game from the pocket, he is still capable of producing at a high level. He’s been hindered somewhat by the mediocre talent in his receiving corps, but every player on Seattle’s offense has shown up at critical moments in the year. Doug Baldwin is routinely in the right place at the right time. Golden Tate is the most physically gifted of their healthy receivers. Jermaine Kearse caught a huge touchdown pass on fourth down last week against the 49ers. Their weapons aren’t anywhere near the caliber of Denver’s, but they are capable of making big plays to aid their quarterback.

These two teams have survived adversity not because they are ‘mentally tough’ or ‘teams of destiny’ but because they have the ability to adapt to the situations they are put into. The Super Bowl is being celebrated as the matchup of Denver’s pass offense against Seattle’s pass defense (and that part is going to be a lot of fun) but this game won’t be decided based on strength against strength. Even if Denver struggles to score the ball, their run game and defense can help them win a low scoring game. Even if Peyton Manning has a game for the ages, Seattle’s offense is capable of keeping up in a shootout. The Seahawks and the Broncos are the final two teams alive because they are capable of winning games in multiple ways. Don't be surprised when one of their lesser known players comes through big in the Super Bowl.

Championship Rematches

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Week 2: Seattle beat San Francisco 29-3
Week 14: San Francisco beat Seattle 19-17

These two teams split the series this year, but in the eyes of most Seattle came out on top. Their win was much more convincing, and they also claimed the division. This game is in Seattle, a notoriously difficult place to play, and many expect the Seahawks to win handily as they've done the last two times these two met in Seattle. But San Francisco has been hot lately, winning their last eight. Based on what I saw in the tape, this should be a very competitive matchup.

The first game between these teams was closer than the final score (and most people’s memories) would indicate. San Francisco had an early opportunity to put points on the board, but they were held to nothing thanks to an interception on a tipped pass in the endzone. Their defense did their part, and Seattle was held off the board until a second quarter safety. Set up by a Kaepernick fumble, the Seahawks added a field goal to take a 5-0 halftime lead. Their offense came out hot in the second half, managing a touchdown on each of their first two drives while the 49ers were held to a field goal in between. Once the large lead was built, Kaepernick was forced to attack downfield into the strength of Seattle’s defense. This led to a pair of interceptions and to the final score of 29-3.

The second game started much in the same way, with the 49ers taking an early drive deep into Seahawks’ territory. This time they managed to come away with a field goal, followed by another after a short field set up by a blocked punt. At that point the Seahawks’ offense got going, scoring two touchdowns thanks to a few deep pass plays. The 49ers got another field goal in between, and just before the end of the half they managed to overcome their red zone woes and score a touchdown to take a 16-14 lead. The two teams traded defensive stands for most of the second half, until a big punt return set up Seattle in range for a field goal in the fourth quarter. The 49ers responded on the next drive with a 51 yard run by Frank Gore to get them in field goal range. They were able to run down the clock after that and kick the field goal to earn a 19-17 victory.

Why the Seahawks will win again:

A major factor in the first two games was San Francisco’s inability to convert red zone opportunities, something they have struggled with all season. The Seahawks allowed only one touchdown over two games and forced two Kaepernick interceptions inside the ten yardline. The 49ers have had similar troubles in several games this season, usually whenever put up against an elite defense. Last week against the Panthers they had to settle for a pair of field goals early on before managing two touchdowns later in the game. Seattle should be able to make at least one crucial stop in this game.

Seattle has one of the best past defenses of all time, and they match up particularly well against San Francisco’s wide receivers. The Seahawks field a secondary populated by large, physical players who prefer to challenge receivers at the line in order to disrupt the timing of the offense. The best way to beat such defenders is to run past them with quick, speedy wide receivers who can slip jams and beat the coverage over the top. The 49ers don’t have anybody like that. Their receivers get open through a mix of guile and power, overwhelming the smaller cornerbacks they usually face. Against a team that can match them physically as Seattle can, these receivers will likely struggle. In the first matchup between these teams the 49ers’ receiving corps combined for 6 catches for 52 yards, most of which came from receivers who will not play in this game. Anquan Boldin struggled in particular when matched up against Richard Sherman, catching only a single pass for six yards.

Seattle has struggled on the offensive side of the ball recently, but they should be able to get back on track against San Francisco. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been particularly effective against them this season, but he has picked up his productivity in the red zone, scoring four touchdowns in their two games. He is more useful as a decoy in the play action game, where his presence has allowed Wilson to escape the pocket and find receivers open downfield. In their two games this season Wilson completed several big passes off play action, including a couple where he managed to reach the edge on a bootleg action. Against a vulnerable 49ers’ secondary, they should be able to find that same success this weekend.

Why the 49ers will win again:

The way to beat Seattle is to run the ball and stop the run, and those are the strengths of the 49ers’ team. They struggled some in these areas early in the year, leading to their first defeat at the hands of the Seahawks. But in recent weeks they have gotten much better , as evidenced by their success in the second matchup. In that game they held Lynch to 72 yards while Gore had 110 on only 17 carries. They let Wilson only scramble once for two yards while Kaepernick accounted for 31 with his legs. They should be able to attack with a diverse, powerful running game, overwhelming Seattle’s athleticism with brute force. This offense is best when they rely on their offensive line to push the defense around, as they did during their Week 14 matchup.

Their passing offense struggled mightily during the first game, but it rebounded nicely the second time around. Much of this was due to the return of Michael Crabtree to their lineup. Not only is Crabtree more gifted physically than any of his replacements, he has a much better feel for how to elude coverage and get open. When Kaepernick breaks from the pocket and improvises, Crabtree knows exactly where to go to present himself as an available target. Given enough time, any secondary will break down, and Kaepernick will likely have a great deal of time in this game. Seattle wasn’t able to generate much pressure in either of the games against San Francisco, even though the 49ers played without Mike Iupati for an extended stretch in their second matchup. Last week Carolina—a team with a better pass rush than the Seahawks—did next to nothing when matched up against San Francisco’s offensive line. If Kaepernick has the patience, he can hold the ball long enough for his receivers to create separation.

Most importantly of all, San Francisco will not repeat the mistakes they made in the first two games. They turned the ball over six times in their two games against Seattle, compared to twelve in their other fourteen games. This is one of the most careful teams with the ball, and they will do a better job of holding onto it this weekend. They also need to take better advantage of the opportunities given to them. They can’t afford to turn the ball over in the red zone as they did in each game, and they can’t afford to get conservative like they did during the second game. Both these can be fixed by coaching, and Jim Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league. He won’t allow his players to make the same mistakes they did before.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos 
Week 12: New England beat Denver 34-31

The first matchup between these two teams was strange, and it is difficult to say what will carry over to this game and what will not. There are dozens of players who either didn’t play in the first game and will play on Sunday or won’t play Sunday but played the first time around. There has been as much turnover on these teams since the middle of this season as most teams go through between seasons. In addition to this, the conditions of their first game were highly unusual. The wind was a major factor, strong enough that Bill Belichick elected to choose which end of the field to defend rather than taking the ball first in overtime. Both teams struggled to hold onto the football, fumbling eleven times total between them. All of these limit the effectiveness of trying to use the last game to predict what is to come, but I’ll do my best to identify the things that should happen again and the things that should be different this time around.

The game started as poorly as New England could have imagined. They fumbled the ball on each of their first three drives, leading to seventeen Broncos’ points. Denver added another touchdown to their lead thanks to a powerful rushing attack. But the game changed completely just before the half, as the Patriots were punting from deep in their own end of the field. Trindon Holliday muffed the punt, and the Patriots recovered with time for one final play. They were not able to score before the half, but two things did happen as a result. Holliday was pulled off punt returns and replaced with the supposedly sure handed Wes Welker, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was injured on the Patriots’ Hail Mary that followed their recovery. In the second half the Patriots came out attacking the new weakness in the Broncos’ secondary and scored a quick touchdown. Denver responded with a nice drive that ended when Montee Ball fumbled, setting up another Patriots’ touchdown. The Patriots scored early in the fourth quarter to take the lead and added a field goal on their next series. The Broncos then drove the length of the field for a tying touchdown to send the game to overtime. Ultimately, the Manning-Brady matchup was decided on a play in which neither player was on the field. The Patriots recovered a muffed punt deep Broncos’ territory thanks to a poor decision by Welker, setting them up for the winning field goal.

Why the Patriots will win:

New England should be able to score on Denver’s defense. In the first game between these teams they got off to a slow start due to several turnovers, mistakes they specialize in avoiding. They had three turnovers on their first three possessions and only seventeen on all other possessions during the regular season. Their offense failed to score in the first half of this game, but this wasn’t due to ineffectiveness. They had success on the ground, running for over 100 yards on the day, and they should have even more success this time around. The Broncos are without run stuffing defensive linemen Derek Wolfe and Kevin Vickerson, and the Patriots have discovered a powerful running game behind LeGarette Blount, who was benched in the first game after fumbling. And as a change of pace the Patriots have Shane Vereen, one of the best receiving backs in the league. The first game they played was only his second week back from an extended injury, but whenever he ran a route out of the backfield the Broncos’ linebackers were incapable of keeping up with him.

The running game is not the only area where New England will benefit from Denver’s injuries. They will also be helped greatly in the passing game. Much of their success the first time around came when Quentin Jammer was forced onto the field in relief of Rodgers-Cromartie. Rodgers-Cromartie is back healthy, but the Broncos have lost their other starting cornerback Chris Harris, forcing Jammer into the lineup. He was brutally terrible against the Chargers last weekend, and the Patriots should be able to exploit him. New England is also excited not to have to see Von Miller, who was an absolute nightmare for them the first time they played. He managed two sacks, several more quarterback hits, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery he returned for a touchdown. Without him the Broncos will struggle to get pressure on Brady, giving New England’s wide receivers opportunities to get open.

On the defensive side of the ball, it’s harder to find things for the Patriots to be excited about. Though they held the Broncos to only a touchdown after halftime, it wasn’t as if they were throttling them defensively. Denver just wasn't able to finish off the drives they had. But there were several things the Patriots did well that could carry over into this game. Aqib Talib played excellent across from Demaryius Thomal all day, matching his physicality at the line and holding him to less than fifty yards receiving. Talib has struggled with injuries during the second half of the season, but against the Broncos he looked like the player he was at the beginning of the year. New England was also able to apply consistent pressure on Manning throughout the day. Defensive end is the one position on defense that has stayed fairly healthy for them, and they should be able to generate that sort of pressure again.

Why the Broncos will win:

Denver has been ravaged by injuries on defense, but the Patriots have suffered almost as badly on offense. The loss of Rob Gronkowski fundamentally alters the way the schemes they have to play. Gronkowski was a nightmare in the middle of the field during the first game between these teams, something the Broncos will not have to worry about in this game. Injuries to Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson have hurt New England’s ability to attack the edge of the secondary, the weakness of the Broncos’ defense. Quentin Jammer is terrible, but he may be able to handle the mediocrity the Patriots will put across from him. To attack through the passing game, the Patriots will need production from their slot receivers, who will spend much of the game covered by Champ Bailey. Bailey missed much of the season, including the game against the Patriots, and they have transitioned him to a role in the slot. He has held up well in that position so far, and he should be able to hold Julius Edelman and Danny Amendola in check.

Even if they can only somewhat slow New England’s offense, it will likely be enough. I have to believe that Denver is going to tremendous success on offense. Their running game was dominant the first time around, gaining four of five yards with ease even when their offense was struggling to score points. The Patriots were utterly unwilling to drop an extra safety into the box, and the interior of the Broncos’ offensive line absolutely manhandled the six man fronts being shown to them. The Broncos ended up with 280 rushing yards on the day, their top three backs all averaging more than five yards per carry. And now that the Patriots are without Brandon Spikes, one of their top run defenders, they should have even fewer problems running against this New England front.

The obvious way for the Patriots to counteract this is to drop a safety into the box, but that creates a whole set of new problems in the passing game. Denver has one of the best pass offenses in NFL history, but they were limited somewhat the first time these two teams played. The wind was a major factor, and neither offense was able to find success with anything other than arrows, crossing routes, and passes up the seam. This wasn’t an issue for New England, as their offense is built primarily around these routes. Denver has a much more dangerous deep passing attack, a part of their offense that was neutralized the first time around. If New England brings a safety down to stop the run, Denver will hit a couple passes over the top on them. They will be helped even more by the return of Julius Thomas, who missed the first game between these teams. Either on the ground or through the air, Denver is going to put up a lot of points in this game.

To Hell with the Underdog

Much has been made this week about the four teams remaining being the four favorites heading into the season. For those of you who have missed it, here were the Super Bowl odds of the top four teams coming into this regular season.

Denver Broncos +600

San Francisco 49ers +700

Seattle Seahawks +800

New England Patriots +850

All odds were gathered from sportsoddshistory.com. For those of you who don’t know, these odds indicate how much they would pay off if you were to wager $100. For example, odds of +600 would pay off with $600 dollars in addition to getting your original wager back.

Now I normally don’t care about gambling, but in this case the preseason odds give us a good idea of how teams were perceived prior to the season. And really, the results of this season shouldn’t be surprising. The people who make these odds are professionals who spend their lives studying football teams and trends. They should be able to correctly identify the top teams prior to the season.

I looked back through the preseason odds in recent years, checking how each team fared based on their projections. As you will see, this year is a surprising outlier. More often than not, the preseason projections only vaguely mirror the eventual results of the season.

2012

Green Bay Packers +600                   Divisional Round

New England Patriots +600                Championship Round

Houston Texans +1000                      Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles +1100                 Missed Playoffs

8: Baltimore Ravens +1800

The Packers were coming off a 15-1 season, and the Patriots had been to the Super Bowl the year before. Neither team was a surprise as co-favorite, and neither team really disappointed. The Packers grabbed the 3 seed and made it to the Divisional Round before being run over by Colin Kaepernick. The Patriots were the 2 seed in the AFC, and they defeated fellow favorite Houston to make it to the Championship game, where they fell to the eventual champions. The big miss here was Philadelphia, who suffered a catastrophic collapse after a strong start and ended up with the fourth selection in the draft.

Coming from the eighth spot, the Ravens were hardly an underdog. They made the playoffs as they had each of the previous five seasons, but they surprised by going on a winning streak thanks to a tremendous run by Joe Flacco. Before the season no one thought he was capable of such a performance, which is why their odds were not better.

2011

New England Patriots +500                Super Bowl

Green Bay Packers +650                   Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles +800                   Missed Playoffs

San Diego Chargers +1000                 Missed Playoffs

12: New York Giants +2200

The favored Patriots made it to the Super Bowl, something that you will see is incredibly rare. They lost in that game, but the projection was hardly inaccurate. The Packers only made it to the Divisional Round, but they finished the regular season with the best record in the NFL. The two misses were Philadelphia, who finished a game outside of the playoffs despite a late season surge, and San Diego, who finished tied for the division lead but lost due to tiebreakers to the utter insanity that was Tim Tebow.

The Giants beat the Cowboys in the last week of the season to earn the playoff spot, and everyone knows what happened from there. Eli Manning pulled together another classic playoff performance and led the team to another upset of the Patriots. At the time, though, there was no reason to believe Eli’s first run was anything other than a one time occurrence. This wasn’t a particularly strong team across the board, and there was nothing ridiculous about giving them such long odds.

2010

Indianapolis Colts +800                      Wild Card Round

New Orleans Saints +1000                 Wild Card Round

San Diego Chargers +1000                 Missed Playoffs

Dallas Cowboys +1000                       Missed Playoffs

5: Green Bay Packers +1100

If you look just at the top four this is the worst set of results in recent years, though credit has to be given for the fifth seeded Packers eventually winning the Super Bowl. The Colts won their division but were not able to win a first round bye. They lost to the Jets in the first round of the playoffs thanks in part to a blunder by Jim Caldwell (have fun, Detroit.) The Saints looked to be in good position after earning the Wild Card, but they lost in the infamous Marshawn Lynch game against a 7-9 Seahawks team. The Chargers fell a game short of the surprising (and still perplexing) Chiefs, and the Cowboys finished at a miserable 6-10, earning a top ten selection.

But as I mentioned above, the team with the fifth best odds managed to win the title. The Packers were coming off of a strong 2009 performance in which Aaron Rodgers proved he was everything they had hoped he would be when they cast Brett Favre aside. They had a good mix of young and old talent on their defense. Questions about their running game and the sustainability of Rodgers’ success were enough to push them out of the top four, but I think the oddsmakers deserve praise for recognizing how good this team was.

2009

New England Patriots +450                Wild Card Round

Pittsburgh Steelers +1000                 Missed Playoffs

San Diego Chargers +1000                Divisional Round

New York Giants +1200                     Missed Playoffs

10: New Orleans Saints +2000

This season wasn’t much better. The best result came from the Chargers, who earned a first round bye but lost in their first playoff game to the Jets. The Patriots fell to Baltimore in the Wild Card Round, and the other two failed to make the playoffs. The Steelers were defending Super Bowl Champions but missed out due to a tiebreaker. The Giants were probably overrated, especially when you consider their 1-4 finish to the 2008 season, and they could only manage an 8-8 record.

The Saints were a surprise to everyone, and the oddsmakers have to be given credit for having them ranked as high as they did. New Orleans had finished 2008 in last place in their division despite having the fourth best point differential in the NFC. They rebounded remarkably in 2009, winning their first thirteen and clinching the top seed in the NFC. From there it only took a blowout of the Cardinals, and gift from Brett Favre (sob), and a brilliant piece of coaching from Sean Payton to win the Super Bowl and fulfill all the unrealized promise their roster had.

2008

New England Patriots +350                 Missed Playoffs

Dallas Cowboys +600                         Missed Playoffs

San Diego Chargers +700                   Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts +750                      Wild Card Round

8: Pittsburgh Steelers +1800

There was every reason for the Patriots to be overwhelming favorites. They had won their first 18 games the previous season, only to fall short in the Super Bowl. They were bringing back pretty much everyone, and they looked poised for another run until Tom Brady tore his ACL in the first game of the season. Even without him they went 11-5, but that wasn’t good enough to earn them a playoff spot. The Cowboys also finished above .500, but they missed out on the playoffs thanks to a humiliating loss in Week 17 that started a trend that has continued to this day. The Colts and the Chargers faced off in the first round of the playoffs, and the Chargers won thanks to the brilliance of their punter Mike Scifres (only partially joking. He was incredible.) They were unable to knock off the Steelers in the Divisional Round.

The Steelers were coming off a playoff season that had ended with a disappointing loss in the Wild Card Round to the Jaguars. But the core of this team was still very similar to the one that had been crowned champions three seasons earlier. Their preseason ranking didn’t account for the emergence of James Harrison as a dominant force, jumping from a solid starter to NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Had the oddsmakers realized they had such a dangerous pass rusher, this might have been enough to bump them up a couple spots.

2007

New England Patriots +250                 Super Bowl

San Diego Chargers +600                   Championship Round

Indianapolis Colts +800                       Divisional Round

Chicago Bears +1400                         Missed Playoffs

16: New York Giants +3000

The Patriots were dominant during the 2007 season in every facet of the game, but  their +250 odds before the season still seem insane. Though I do understand where the oddsmakers were coming from. At this time Brady had just established himself as an elite quarterback, and during the offseason they added Randy Moss and Wes Welker to his receiving corps. The other teams were similarly impressive. The Colts were coming off a Super Bowl run, and the Chargers were in the midst of their run with a core of Rivers, Tomlinson, and Gates. Both advanced deep into the playoffs, but this was the Patriots’ year in the AFC. The Bears were the defending NFC Champions playing in a weak division, but they fell apart due to issues at the quarterback position and the regrettable decision to part ways with Thomas Jones in favor of Cedric Benson.

The Giants came out of nowhere, both at the beginning of the season and in the playoffs. The rode a hot finish to the season through the playoffs. Coming into this season there was no reason to believe Eli Manning was anything other than a mediocre quarterback, and his performance through most of the regular season matched what he had done through his career to that point. But he made his name with a league leading six game winning drives, a reputation that has clung to him to this day.

2006

Indianapolis Colts +600                      Super Bowl Champions

New England Patriots +800                Championship Round

Seattle Seahawks +1000                   Divisional Round

Denver Broncos +1200                       Missed Playoffs

Finally!!! The oddsmakers actually got this one right! Not only did they list the ultimate champion among their top four, they had them sitting in the number one spot. The Colts were in the midst of their run of dominant regular seasons, but they had consistently fallen short in the playoffs. The oddsmakers correctly recognized that playoff success can be fickle, and they did not penalize Indianapolis for the results of a handful of games.

The rest of this list doesn’t look too bad either. The Patriots made it to the Championship Round only to lose to the Colts thanks to a stunning comeback. It may not have seemed a bold projection to give the defending NFC Champion Seahawks the third best odds, but this came at the end of a stretch in which the past five Super Bowl runners up had failed to make the playoffs the following season. The oddsmakers ignored this statistical quirk, and they were paid off with a Divisional Round run by Seattle. But even in this successful year, they missed on their projection of the Broncos. After losing in the AFC Championship game the previous season, Denver missed out on the playoffs due to losses in five of their last seven games.

In the past seven seasons the oddsmakers identified three Super Bowl participants and only one winner among their top four. At least one of the top four missed the playoffs each year, and on two occasions the four teams combined to win zero playoff games. But this isn’t intended as a criticism of the oddsmakers. It is just the nature of a single elimination tournament following a sixteen game season to produce somewhat random results.

So why is this year different? Were these four teams just that much better than everyone else in the league? If you look at the results from this season, it’s hard to disagree with that assessment. These teams produced four of the best five records in the league (Carolina tied San Francisco and New England at 12-4) and three of them managed a first round bye. That certainly made the road to the Championship Round easier for them. Even San Francisco was favored in both of their playoff games.

This brings me to my next point: a surprising lack of upsets. Last weekend was the first time since 2004 that a Divisional Round passed without an upset. Upsets are usually the result of unfortunate matchups or random circumstance. This year all four teams were faced with favorable opponents, and the randomness did not rear its ugly head. As good as these teams are, they are all beatable in the right circumstances. They have just been fortunate to avoid those circumstances to this point.

Another problem that derailed favored teams was injuries. The 2007 Bears, 2008 Patriots, and 2011 Eagles are all examples of this. And while none of these teams lost a player as valuable as a quarterback, it is hard to say they have stayed perfectly healthy. The 49ers missed Michael Crabtree and Aldon Smith (for a non-injury concern) for long portions of the season. The Seahawks had to play without Russell Okung and Brandon Browner. The Broncos are now without Von Miller, Derek Wolfe, and Chris Harris, maybe their three best defensive players. And the Patriots currently have more than $20 million of their salary cap on injured reserve. No team has suffered more devastating injuries than the Patriots.

But despite these injuries, these teams are still the final four left alive. And that comes down to the most underrated parts of these teams: coaching. In past years, teams have faltered behind Norv Turner and Jim Caldwell, Wade Philips and Jason Garrett. A good coach helps a talented team overcome obstacles put in its way, and these teams all have very good coaches. Bill Belichick is already a legend, and it can be argued he has done his best job this season with a roster put together of unwanted castoffs. Jim Harbaugh is right there with Belichick as one of the three best coaches in the league. John Fox has taken a team quarterbacked by Jake Delhomme to the Super Bowl and another quarterbacked by Tim Tebow to the playoffs. He has his problems, getting far too conservative at times, but he is smart enough to stay out of Peyton Manning’s way. And Pete Carroll deserves all the credit in the world for the success of the Seahawks. This team is successful because of what he has done recognizing and developing mid round talent into elite players.

These four teams were considered the best at the beginning of the year, and they are they have been the best throughout the regular season. Part of their success is due to luck, but most of it is thanks to the fantastic talent on these rosters. For those of you who are interested, here are their odds heading into the Championship Round.

Seattle Seahawks +170

Denver Broncos +200

San Francisco 49ers +350

New England Patriots +500