Over the past couple days I’ve brought you my predictions for the league this year, giving team-by-team records and explaining the paths I see for each franchise. Today I wrap up my preview series by predicting the major league awards, and finish with my prediction for the Super Bowl.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans SaintsThis is a really tricky award to try to predict this year. Typically the obvious choice is to pick a quarterback, but the quarterback class this year is hard to get excited about. Kenny Pickett will make it onto the field sooner or later, but he’ll be on a middling team behind a bad offensive line and will struggle to put up big numbers. A better bet might be Desmond Ridder in Atlanta, who has a tougher path to a starting job but may be in a slightly better position to make flash plays. The only other rookie quarterback who appears to have a realistic chance of starting is Malik Willis, but he is as raw as they come and will likely not get the chance until the very end of the season.
So what other options are there? The running back class this year is weak as well, and while I could see someone like Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker claiming the lion’s share of the touches, most rookie runners will mostly be rotational pieces to start. The most promising rookie in terms of immediate impact is probably Charles Cross in Seattle, but offensive linemen are pretty much ineligible for this award.
That leaves us with just wide receivers, but even that position has some complications. It will be hard for any of the rookie receivers to match the insane production put up by Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase the past two years, so any winner here will inevitably look disappointing by comparison. I don’t think we’ll reach the end of the year with a single clear champion that we all feel good about, and it will mostly come down to measuring raw numbers of different receivers against one another.
Of the receivers who went in the first round, I think Olave is in the best situation to make an immediate impact. Drake London will likely be overshadowed by the continuing stardom of Kyle Pitts, and potential waffling at the quarterback position. I have worries about the quarterbacks for Garrett Wilson and Jahan Dotson as well, plus questions about where they fall on their teams’ depth charts.
Olave feels like the best bet to put up big numbers. There are obviously issues with Jameis Winston as well, but the ability to put up volume passing stats isn’t one of them. Olave fits perfectly across from Michael Thomas as a vertical threat who will open up the offense, and we know Winston likes to chuck the ball down the field. Toss in Olave’s clever route-running and body control that make him lethal in the red zone, and he’ll probably be the most productive rookie receiver, even if he isn’t necessarily the best.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Detroit LionsIt feels a little easier to project this award on the defensive side of the ball. I really like what Sauce Gardner brings to the table with the Jets, but the transition to the NFL is always difficult for defensive backs, especially ones who play as physically as Gardner does. I can’t see any cornerback winning this award even though this was a strong cornerback draft class, and I feel the same about the weaker group at safety.
Linebackers and defensive tackles can win this award, but both groups were fairly uninspiring in this year’s class. Maybe if the Packers have the best defense in the league Quay Walker could get some love as part of that, but I just don’t think he’s a particularly impressive prospect. So it really comes down to the edge rushers. And of the edge rushers selected this year, Hutchinson is clearly the readiest to make an immediate impact.
Hutchinson has incredible size and quickness, and the Lions already showed in preseason a willingness to put him in situations to make use of this. They’ve bounced him around the defensive line to find the best matchup, including sliding him inside on third downs to rush against guards. His weakness is his lack of pure speed around the edge, and I think that will prevent him from reaching the career peaks of other edge rushers who were selected in the class. But I think right now he’s a better player than Kayvon Thibodeaux or Trayvon Walker, so he’ll produce the best numbers his rookie year.
Coach of the Year
Brandon Staley, Los Angeles ChargersThis award typically goes to the coach of a surprise team, so it’s hard to pick in advance. The biggest potential surprise team I see is probably Carolina, but I don’t think Matt Rhule is a particularly good coach, so it would be weird to select him here. Kevin Stefanski could get some love if he can keep the Browns in playoff position until Deshaun Watson returns, but the general queasiness of that whole situation will likely work against him. Some first-year coaches like Doug Pederson, Kevin O’Connell, and Josh McDaniels have enough talent on their rosters that they could see a boost to a competitive level that gets them a lot of attention as well.
But the safest bet for me feels like Staley, even though the Chargers are already mostly expected to make the playoffs. Staley took a lot of heat from some circles last year due to his aggressive decision-making on fourth downs that didn’t pan out in crucial situations, but he is smart enough to know not to back off from his correct decisions because of this, and there will be moments this year when such aggression works out in his favor. The Chargers should be better than they were a year ago, and a lot better than two years ago before Staley took over. And if there is a loud enough backlash to the backlash, he could become a favorite among certain segments of the NFL media.
Defensive Player of the Year
Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles RamsDonald has been the best defensive player in the league for half a decade now, and the voter fatigue that cost him the award last year should fade this season. He won the award back-to-back in 2017 and 2018, and then watched Stephon Gilmore beat him out after another deserving season in 2019. By 2020 everyone was back on board with him however, and I expect the same thing to happen after TJ Watt was given the award last year.
There is some risk that Donald could slow down, either due to being 31 years old or simply because the Rams choose to take it easy with their veterans after last year’s long postseason run. If Donald is merely great rather than extraordinary, there are plenty of other names who could jump into the mix. Watt has been in the top three for votes each of the past three seasons, and he is going to put up a lot of sacks once again, though he will be hurt by being on a team that likely won’t be in playoff contention.
If we limit ourselves to likely playoff contenders, a few names jump out. I expect Micah Parsons to statistically fall off from what he did last year, but if he can keep up that insane production for a Cowboys team that bounces back, he’ll be clearly in the running. Green Bay has a defense that is ready to perform as one of the best in the league, and right now Jaire Alexander is their best player. But it’s hard for a cornerback to win the award, and if this defense does take a leap forward, it will be easier to point at a player who made a big year-on-year improvement rather than one who has been great for several years now. The best choice for that might be Rashan Gary, who got better as the season went along in 2021 and has the potential to break out for a huge sack total.
The best defensive player who has never been in the running for this award is Myles Garrett. Last year he was stuck on a Browns team that was too much of a disaster for anyone to pay attention to how dominant he was, and two years ago he missed the final six weeks of the season due to a suspension. But if the Browns outperform expectations it will likely be because of their defense, and Garrett shouldn’t be too impacted by the Watson stink.
MVP
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo BillsThis feels like a pretty wide open race this year. I’m not even going to entertain a non-quarterback, and it wouldn’t make sense to choose a quarterback on a team that I don’t see making the postseason, so that cuts it down to fourteen options. I’m fine counting out Trey Lance, Jalen Hurts, and Mac Jones, because I don’t think they’re very good, and their teams will make the playoffs primarily because of the talent around them. Matt Ryan obviously has an MVP in his career, but he’s well past his prime and won’t put up big numbers on a Colts team that wants to feed the ball to Jonathan Taylor. And while Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins are all capable of moments of high-level play, they’ve never shown the consistency to actually produce MVP results.
That cuts the list down to seven, but among these seven I could see it going in any direction. Joe Burrow is obviously an emerging star who was playing his best football at the end of last year as he led the Bengals on a deep playoff run, and if Cincinnati can shore up the offensive line in front of him, he can produce a full season at that level. But I expect the Bengals offense to come back to earth some, so he’s probably the least-likely of the real contenders.
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are in similar positions. They’ve both won the award multiple times, and they are both leading teams that should be fighting for the top spot in the NFC. But I worry about Rodgers’s receiving options and Brady’s offensive line, which could lead to hiccups in key moments. And the looming specter of age, plus potential voter exhaustion, leads me to pass them up as well, even though they were the two top options at the end of last year.
Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are interesting. They both won this award in breakout second seasons, and both have suffered in comparison to their own greatness ever since. They likely won’t be able to reproduce those incredible seasons, and it may take a year or two for the narratives to catch up and for them to become underrated again, at which point we’ll realize how special they are. Mahomes may have some difficulties this year on an offense that seems to be undergoing a shift, so of the two I think Jackson is the more likely to win, even if I still believe Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL.
So for me it comes down to two younger players who have shown themselves to be supremely talented but haven’t yet put it all together to perform at an MVP level. In Los Angeles, I think this is the year the Chargers finally figure it out and make it back to the playoffs on the arm of Justin Herbert. His athleticism and his ability to reshape the field with laserlike throws gives him the potential to truly explode into the sort of statistical season that could see him run away with the award.
I ended up selecting Allen over him for two reasons: I feel more comfortable betting on a player with a longer track record of success, and I like Buffalo’s supporting cast more. The Bills are my pick to finish with the best record in the AFC, and to do so will require them to fully unleash Allen. The past two years have shown him to be a quarterback with one of the highest peaks in the NFL, even if he still had occasional stumbles. I think those stumbles go away this year as he fires the ball all over the field to Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, and produces extra value on the ground to put him over the top as the most valuable player in the league.
Super Bowl Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs 34 – Green Bay Packers 27I think that Green Bay has been the best team in the NFC the past two years, only to fall flat on their faces when the postseason comes around. It’s worth asking if there’s some real flaw with the team in a playoff environment, but I think the more likely explanation is just bad luck. And even if they do have some underlying issue, the sheer talent they boast this year should be enough to make up for it. Their offensive line will improve with the return of David Bakhtiari, and while they will absolutely miss Davante Adams, they have plenty of time to figure out how to make things work at receiver before the playoffs roll around.
The real difference this year will be their defense. I made a couple references above to them potentially becoming the best in the league, and I don’t think that’s an unlikely outcome. On paper they are the most complete unit in the league, with proven stars as well as young players who can take the next step to make this a truly elite unit. Couple that with an MVP quarterback, and it’s hard not to pick them to emerge from the NFC, where the only real challengers I see are the Rams and the Buccaneers.
The AFC is a bit tougher. I’ve picked Buffalo to have the best record, but I think all of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Los Angeles could challenge them at the end of the year. Kansas City is the most interesting case, and the team with the highest upside. There are still reasons for concern about their defense, but they have a knack for figuring things out as the end of the year rolls around. And if their offense is working, they don’t need much from their defense.
The offensive questions I mentioned above will pop up early in the season. They don’t have a reliable receiving option outside of Travis Kelce, and it will take time for their new additions to figure out how to mesh with Mahomes’s unique style. But this unit will figure things out as the year wears on. They have the best quarterback in the league and the best offensive coach in the game. And come January, I’m not sure anyone in the AFC has the defensive fortitude to stop them.
Green Bay might. They can slow the Chiefs down at least, with the coverage on the outside to choke off their receivers and a pass rush that can hassle Mahomes. But they don’t really have anyone to match up with Kelce, and their own offensive line is vulnerable on the interior where Chris Jones does his work. Green Bay definitely has everything they need to win the Super Bowl, but I think they fall short once again.
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