After the longest regular season in NFL history, we are finally ready for the postseason to kick off. We’re down to fourteen teams and thirteen games remaining, and a month from now we’ll have a new Super Bowl champion. So to get things started, I’m going to go through and hand out some made up awards to the remaining teams.
The Runaway Favorite
Green Bay PackersThere are some holes you can poke in Green Bay’s resumé, as there are with every team this year. They’ve had pretty good luck in close games, a handful of which have come against mediocre opponents. They could easily drop any of their games against any opponent on their way to a Super Bowl title. But they are still the clear favorites right now, and my pick for who will emerge as champions a month from now.
Green Bay only has four losses on the season, and three of those are in games you can attach asterisks to. Their losses to Kansas City and Detroit can both be written off as the result of Jordan Love playing significant chunks of those games, and you can make the case for ignoring their opening week thrashing by the Saints as an outlier. I still think that game can be telling about what happens if they fall behind early to a good defense, but after another sixteen games where it hasn’t repeated, it’s hard to put too much weight on it.
The only other team in the league with fewer than five losses is Tampa Bay, and Green Bay’s superior conference record means they have a first-round bye and homefield advantage if the two face each other in the championship round. This year in the NFL home teams won around 52% of the time. If you just pretend every team in the playoffs is evenly matched (which we know is not true, but this assumption only lessens the odds for top teams), the top overall seed in each conference ends up with a 13.5% chance of winning a championship. Missing out on the first-round bye drops the second seed to 6.7%, more than chopping their chances in half.
Throw this together and the Packers are the clear favorites based only on what they’ve done to this point. And there’s a case to be made that the team we’ll see over the next few weeks will actually be better than the one we saw during the regular season. They played most of the year without the services of David Bakhtiari, Jaire Alexander, and Za’Darius Smith, all three of whom look like they’ll be available for the postseason run. That’s three All Pro players, joining a roster that produced the best record in the NFL, and sitting with the clearest path to the Super Bowl. At this point, picking anyone other than the Packers feels like a questionable choice.
Best Bet
Tennessee TitansI don’t often dip into pure gambling in this space, but I think it is informative to look at odds as a way of judging expectations. And right now it seems to me there is one very glaring misalignment between the gambling odds and what I actually see as the most likely scenarios going forward.
As I mentioned above, earning the top overall seed in a conference constitutes a huge advantage in the playoffs. Even if you think a lower seed is a better team, you have to believe there is a pretty substantial gap to think the lower seed has better chances. Which is why it’s fascinating to me that I see the Titans with only the fifth-best odds, behind Kansas City and Buffalo in their own conference.
There are definitely some red flags with the Titans. They definitely benefited from an easy schedule, with two games apiece against both the Texans and the Jaguars. They have some pretty ugly losses on their schedule, one to the Jets and one to the aforementioned Titans. And when they have won it hasn’t always been pretty, leaving them with a point differential that is merely the eleventh best in the league.
But this team is better than people realize. Ryan Tannehill doesn’t produce tremendous volume, but he’s very efficient in a scheme that is perfectly built to his skillset. They’ll be getting Derrick Henry back after he missed a big chunk of the season, and while I think the impact of a running back is usually fairly small (Tennessee’s midseason offensive slump coincided more with the injury to AJ Brown than it did to the loss of Henry), it certainly won’t hurt to have that type of explosive playmaker to capture the focus of opposing defenses. And their defense is underrated as well, particularly along the front where they have multiple players who can appear in the offensive backfield on any given snap.
The other thing worth mentioning is that the Titans are seeded higher than the Chiefs and the Bills because they beat both those teams in the regular season. The victory over Buffalo was a close-fought game that either side could have won at the end. The victory over Kansas City was not. It’s likely that for either of these teams to win a Super Bowl their road is going to have to go through Nashville, against a team they fell short against during the regular season.
Team That is Going Absolutely Nowhere
Pittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh is not a good football team. They are a well-coached team that puts in tremendous effort and got plenty of luck, on their way to just sneaking into the postseason. They did this with a point differential of -55, thanks to an 8-2-1 record in one possession games. Yes, they won nine games this year and only once was their final margin larger than eight points, a 26-14 victory over the Browns two weeks ago.
There are so many things wrong with this Steelers team that it’s staggering they’ve made it this far. They spent the entire year juggling their offensive line due to injuries and poor play, and I’m not sure there’s a single player on there I’d feel good about starting for a normal playoff team. Their offensive scheme relied largely on pounding Najee Harris into this line and hoping for the best, as he finished as one of only two running backs this season with more than 300 carries. Ben Roethlisberger can barely throw the ball down the field and doesn’t even try most of the time, in a scheme that is basically just an endless series of lifeless screens and three-yard out patterns. When their offense does work, it’s primarily because their wide receivers are making plays on the outside, and even then Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are possibly the two most mercurial receivers in the NFL.
But we knew all this before the season. And if you had told me four months ago the Steelers were in the playoffs, I would have guessed that it was because they had the best defense in the league once again. But their defense has fallen off sharply this year, particularly against the run. The linebacker combination of Devin Bush and Joe Schobert is abysmal. Their only real hope on defense is for TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward to wreak havoc and create an occasional negative play to force the opposing offense to throw the ball, a strategy that has only worked due to the greatness of these two players.
Fortunately we don’t have to try to imagine what this team will look like facing top-notch competition. The same Chiefs team they’re playing this weekend beat them 36-10 just a month ago, in one of those games where even a 26 point margin doesn’t capture how lopsided it was. This game will probably be a little bit more competitive, but I still can’t really see a path to victory for Pittsburgh in this one game, much less in the four straight they’d need to win the Super Bowl.
Team Most Likely to Fall Flat on Their Face
Tampa Bay BuccaneersThe Buccaneers are the only team besides Green Bay with fewer than five losses, and aside from missing out on the first-round bye they have to be feeling pretty good about where they’re sitting. They’re the defending champions, they have the most accomplished postseason quarterback of all time, and they won’t have to go on the road until the NFC Championship Game, and even then it will be to a destination where they won a season ago.
Look a bit deeper, and there are some red flags. Tampa Bay coasted down the stretch with an easy schedule, as in the nine games after their bye they had the opportunity to face Washington, both New Yorks, Atlanta, and Carolina twice. In most of these games they took care of business, but they struggled with both Washington and the Jets, losing to the former and needing a last-minute touchdown to defeat the latter.
In both cases their defense looked extremely vulnerable, and even in their good games they had some issues on that side of the ball. They gave up 31 points in a victory over the Colts and 27 in their overtime victory over Buffalo. And their defense seemed to get worse down the stretch, in large part because of the absence of Lavonte David. He’s pushing to make it back this weekend after suffering a foot injury in week 15, but if he’s less than fully healthy this defense has showed major holes without their star and their veteran leader.
For most of the season their offense was enough to overcome any defensive lapses, but they are banged up on that side of the ball as well. Chris Godwin will be unavailable, and Antonio Brown famously stormed off the field, leaving them with Mike Evans as their only proven wide receiver. Tom Brady is still phenomenal and should win the MVP this year, but he has had a habit of throwing interceptions in bunches recently, most notably with three against the Packers in the playoffs a year ago. Last year the overwhelming depth and talent of this team was enough to ride through any rough patches. This year they likely will need Brady to be absolutely perfect.
Team Most Pissed About Their Matchup
Los Angeles RamsIt’s always annoying when you reach the postseason and find a division foe in your path. You spent all season battling for control of the division against this team, and then it can all be taken away in one night giving them bragging rights for the next year. It’s especially bad when it’s a team like Arizona, that has demonstrated a ceiling as high as any in the league this year.
The Rams are a very good football team, and it’s mostly due to an insanely difficult schedule and a top-heavy conference that they found themselves slipping to the fourth seed in the NFC. And waiting for them is a division foe that looked like the best team in the NFL at one point in the season.
The Cardinals struggled over the second half, which is why they find themselves having to go on the road this weekend. A lot of people have begun to question Kliff Kingsbury, as his teams seem to have a pattern of fading as the season wears along. This certainly could be an issue, and the Cardinals could go down with a whimper as the past few months have suggested they will.
But there really isn’t much evidence that how a team plays in the final month of the season has any relationship with how they fare in the postseason. The Cardinals are cold now, but they could heat up just as quickly. And if they do get hot, they have the best chances of any wild card team to go on a deep run. Kyler Murray is the sort of playmaker that tortures defenses in the postseason, and they can put up points in such a hurry that you can lose the game before you even realize what’s hit you. One or two mistakes by the Rams defense or by Matthew Stafford, and they could find themselves sent home far sooner than they ever imagined.
Joe Flacco Award for Mediocre Player Most Likely to Get Insanely Hot and Carry His Team to A Championship
Derek CarrI thought about trying to be clever and naming a non-quarterback player. Rasul Douglas has made a habit of making interceptions at big moments for the Packers this year. Frank Clark has been a disappointment for the Chiefs but still shows flashes of elite ability. I’m not ready to write off Odell Beckham yet, or dismiss a repeat performance from Devin White wreaking havoc on Tampa Bay’s defense. But if we’re actually going to stick to the description of this award (which I definitely did not just make up), it has to be a quarterback.
Carr is a frustrating player to figure out. Every year there seem to be moments where he looks like he’s ready to put together a career performance, and then every year he fades into anonymous competence down the stretch. He can make some breathtaking throws, and over the past couple years he’s progressed to the point where he’s no longer king of the checkdowns. It just never seems to all come together.
Imagining the Raiders going on a Super Bowl run is a bit of a stretch. Their point differential is actually worse than Pittsburgh’s, and there are a ton of easy to spot weaknesses for opposing teams to attack each game. But they do have valuable players at key positions—Darren Waller has had a quiet year at tight end but still has elite ability, and Maxx Crosby can wreck games as a pass rusher. And Carr does have hot stretches in the past where he looks like a truly elite player. If he can hit one at the perfect time, the Raiders could surprise some people.
Players to Watch
The name says enough. Here’s on player to keep your eyes on for each team. What’s my criteria? Whatever I want it to be.
Green Bay Packers – Darnell Savage
Savage isn’t one of the big names on Green Bay’s defense, but he’s a very good player on the back end. He covers space well, and he’s pretty much always in position. It’s difficult to strike the Packers over the top, and while Savage hasn’t produced interceptions at the pace he’s capable of, he could very easily make up for it this postseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
No one really knew what to expect from Tryon-Shoyinka. He’s a talented athlete who never really had the opportunity to put it together in college, as he opted out of his final season at Washington. But he arrived with the Buccaneers and immediately became a weapon off the bench for this defense. With Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett manning the outsides, Tryon-Shoyinka often comes from unexpected angles and wreaks absolute havoc with his explosiveness and closing speed.
Dallas Cowboys – Randy Gregory
I thought about naming Trevon Diggs here, but you don’t need to be told to watch him. You’re going to see him, whether it’s producing a massive interception or surrendering a huge touchdown (or both). So instead I’ll pick one of the players in front of him. Gregory has had a tumultuous NFL career, but he seems to have found some stability now in Dallas. He struggled with injuries some this year, but he’s healthy now and ready to give Dallas the boost it needs on defense while its offense figures itself out.
Los Angeles Rams – Sony Michel
Michel was a disappointment in New England, and it took some time for him to find his footing with the Rams. But after averaging only eight touches a game through the first twelve weeks, injuries pushed him into the starting lineup and gave him a chance to show the talent that made him a first round pick. He’s had over twenty touches in each game since and averaged over 100 total yards, giving the Rams a weapon they didn’t have in the early part of the season.
Arizona Cardinals – Christian Kirk
DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green are the big names in Arizona, and Rondale Moore (when healthy) is the player they design opportunities to get the ball in his hands. But Kirk plays a valuable role in their offense as the down-the-field threat. He bounces between the slot and the outside, and he gets enough quick throws on screens to keep his yards per reception down. But a couple times a game he’ll take advantage of facing off against lesser cornerbacks to explode down the field and give Arizona an opportunity for an explosive play.
San Francisco 49ers – Deebo Samuel
2021 was the year that Samuel broke out, but just in case you haven’t caught on, he might be the most fun player in the NFL right now. With the ball in his hands he is arguably the most dangerous player in space in the NFL, with more than 300 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground this year. It’s possible that he’s so good as a runner that people have come to underestimate him as a receiver, where his ability to generate massive separation gives him even more opportunities to work with the ball in his hands.
Philadelphia Eagles – Jason Kelce
There are a lot of indications that this may be the end of Kelce’s run, and it has been a hell of a run. One of the most athletically gifted offensive linemen we have ever seen, he’s anchored the Eagles offensive line for a decade now by doing things that most other linemen in the league simply can’t. Even as he’s aged his ability to cover space and make impossible reach blocks is simply a joy to watch.
Tennessee Titans – Jeffery Simmons
Simmons has emerged in his third season as one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL. He can create tremendous pressure up the middle, with burst that often has him in the backfield before the opposing linemen can even touch him. He’s an ascending player that is only going to get better, and this postseason is his chance to make his name as one of the true young stars in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs – Daniel Sorensen
This one is less positive than all the others. Whenever something bad has happened to Kansas City over the last few years, Sorensen always seems nearby. Whether that’s missing a run fill that leads to a breakout, or blowing a coverage resulting in a long touchdown pass, Sorensen’s gaffes are often the highlights of a defense that is struggling across the board. When things are working, he’s mostly invisible. If you hear his name called, it’s probably a bad sign for the Chiefs.
Cincinnati Bengals – Trey Hendrickson
Hendrickson is one of those cases where spending big money on a free agent really pays off. After a single breakout season in New Orleans, the Bengals gave Hendrickson a 4 year, $60 million contract that already looks like a bargain. Not only did he set a career best with 14 sacks, he brought a veteran presence to a defense that sorely needed it. Cincinnati’s breakout came on the shoulders of an offensive leap forward, but their defense more than did its part as well.
Buffalo Bills – Devin Singletary
Singletary isn’t what you would hope for from a top running back. He doesn’t see holes very well, and he doesn’t have the top end speed to produce big plays. The most notable games he has are the ones when they decide to simply not hand him the ball and trust everything to Josh Allen. But he does have some good attributes. He plays low to the ground and is difficult to tackle, and it’s easy to picture him squeezing out a few extra yards to pick up a first down in a crucial situation.
New England Patriots – Matthew Judon
Judon is one of those classic players that just feels like he was built for the Patriots. He doesn’t really have a position, but he does whatever Bill Belichick needs from him on a given day. Stuffing the run, drifting back in coverage, or exploding downhill after the passer. He isn’t the best athlete, and he doesn’t do anything to blow you away on the field. But he always finds his way to be involved as part of a defense that knows exactly how to prod the softest points of the opposing offense.
Las Vegas Raiders – Marcus Mariota
The Raiders backup quarterback will make several appearances on the field this game. It remains to be seen whether he’ll actually have any positive impact. Most of the time he’s just used as a wildcat running back, taking the snap and plowing forward into the line. I have to imagine the Raiders have some more creative plays in the book to build off of this, but so far they haven’t showed much interest in going to them. If they can figure this out, it might give them a few opportunities for big plays at crucial moments.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Diontae Johnson
You have to hold your breath every time the ball goes anywhere near Johnson. Above I called him “mercurial”, and even that might be an understatement. He is tremendously talented, with the ability to make sharp cuts that few players in the league can match. He can make people look foolish after the catch, and he can end up wide open with just his route running abilities. He will also sometimes run himself into trouble trying to make a big play. He struggles to consistently catch the ball, and sometimes he even drops it when he’s trying to run after he makes the catch. Literally anything can happen when the ball comes his way.
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