2022 Final NFL Preview

Over the past couple days I’ve brought you my predictions for the league this year, giving team-by-team records and explaining the paths I see for each franchise. Today I wrap up my preview series by predicting the major league awards, and finish with my prediction for the Super Bowl.

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

This is a really tricky award to try to predict this year. Typically the obvious choice is to pick a quarterback, but the quarterback class this year is hard to get excited about. Kenny Pickett will make it onto the field sooner or later, but he’ll be on a middling team behind a bad offensive line and will struggle to put up big numbers. A better bet might be Desmond Ridder in Atlanta, who has a tougher path to a starting job but may be in a slightly better position to make flash plays. The only other rookie quarterback who appears to have a realistic chance of starting is Malik Willis, but he is as raw as they come and will likely not get the chance until the very end of the season. 

So what other options are there? The running back class this year is weak as well, and while I could see someone like Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker claiming the lion’s share of the touches, most rookie runners will mostly be rotational pieces to start. The most promising rookie in terms of immediate impact is probably Charles Cross in Seattle, but offensive linemen are pretty much ineligible for this award.

That leaves us with just wide receivers, but even that position has some complications. It will be hard for any of the rookie receivers to match the insane production put up by Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase the past two years, so any winner here will inevitably look disappointing by comparison. I don’t think we’ll reach the end of the year with a single clear champion that we all feel good about, and it will mostly come down to measuring raw numbers of different receivers against one another. 

Of the receivers who went in the first round, I think Olave is in the best situation to make an immediate impact. Drake London will likely be overshadowed by the continuing stardom of Kyle Pitts, and potential waffling at the quarterback position. I have worries about the quarterbacks for Garrett Wilson and Jahan Dotson as well, plus questions about where they fall on their teams’ depth charts.

Olave feels like the best bet to put up big numbers. There are obviously issues with Jameis Winston as well, but the ability to put up volume passing stats isn’t one of them. Olave fits perfectly across from Michael Thomas as a vertical threat who will open up the offense, and we know Winston likes to chuck the ball down the field. Toss in Olave’s clever route-running and body control that make him lethal in the red zone, and he’ll probably be the most productive rookie receiver, even if he isn’t necessarily the best.

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Detroit Lions

It feels a little easier to project this award on the defensive side of the ball. I really like what Sauce Gardner brings to the table with the Jets, but the transition to the NFL is always difficult for defensive backs, especially ones who play as physically as Gardner does. I can’t see any cornerback winning this award even though this was a strong cornerback draft class, and I feel the same about the weaker group at safety. 

Linebackers and defensive tackles can win this award, but both groups were fairly uninspiring in this year’s class. Maybe if the Packers have the best defense in the league Quay Walker could get some love as part of that, but I just don’t think he’s a particularly impressive prospect. So it really comes down to the edge rushers. And of the edge rushers selected this year, Hutchinson is clearly the readiest to make an immediate impact.

Hutchinson has incredible size and quickness, and the Lions already showed in preseason a willingness to put him in situations to make use of this. They’ve bounced him around the defensive line to find the best matchup, including sliding him inside on third downs to rush against guards. His weakness is his lack of pure speed around the edge, and I think that will prevent him from reaching the career peaks of other edge rushers who were selected in the class. But I think right now he’s a better player than Kayvon Thibodeaux or Trayvon Walker, so he’ll produce the best numbers his rookie year.

 

Coach of the Year

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

This award typically goes to the coach of a surprise team, so it’s hard to pick in advance. The biggest potential surprise team I see is probably Carolina, but I don’t think Matt Rhule is a particularly good coach, so it would be weird to select him here. Kevin Stefanski could get some love if he can keep the Browns in playoff position until Deshaun Watson returns, but the general queasiness of that whole situation will likely work against him. Some first-year coaches like Doug Pederson, Kevin O’Connell, and Josh McDaniels have enough talent on their rosters that they could see a boost to a competitive level that gets them a lot of attention as well. 

But the safest bet for me feels like Staley, even though the Chargers are already mostly expected to make the playoffs. Staley took a lot of heat from some circles last year due to his aggressive decision-making on fourth downs that didn’t pan out in crucial situations, but he is smart enough to know not to back off from his correct decisions because of this, and there will be moments this year when such aggression works out in his favor. The Chargers should be better than they were a year ago, and a lot better than two years ago before Staley took over. And if there is a loud enough backlash to the backlash, he could become a favorite among certain segments of the NFL media.

 

Defensive Player of the Year

Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

Donald has been the best defensive player in the league for half a decade now, and the voter fatigue that cost him the award last year should fade this season. He won the award back-to-back in 2017 and 2018, and then watched Stephon Gilmore beat him out after another deserving season in 2019. By 2020 everyone was back on board with him however, and I expect the same thing to happen after TJ Watt was given the award last year.

There is some risk that Donald could slow down, either due to being 31 years old or simply because the Rams choose to take it easy with their veterans after last year’s long postseason run. If Donald is merely great rather than extraordinary, there are plenty of other names who could jump into the mix. Watt has been in the top three for votes each of the past three seasons, and he is going to put up a lot of sacks once again, though he will be hurt by being on a team that likely won’t be in playoff contention. 

If we limit ourselves to likely playoff contenders, a few names jump out. I expect Micah Parsons to statistically fall off from what he did last year, but if he can keep up that insane production for a Cowboys team that bounces back, he’ll be clearly in the running. Green Bay has a defense that is ready to perform as one of the best in the league, and right now Jaire Alexander is their best player. But it’s hard for a cornerback to win the award, and if this defense does take a leap forward, it will be easier to point at a player who made a big year-on-year improvement rather than one who has been great for several years now. The best choice for that might be Rashan Gary, who got better as the season went along in 2021 and has the potential to break out for a huge sack total.

The best defensive player who has never been in the running for this award is Myles Garrett. Last year he was stuck on a Browns team that was too much of a disaster for anyone to pay attention to how dominant he was, and two years ago he missed the final six weeks of the season due to a suspension. But if the Browns outperform expectations it will likely be because of their defense, and Garrett shouldn’t be too impacted by the Watson stink.

 

MVP

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

This feels like a pretty wide open race this year. I’m not even going to entertain a non-quarterback, and it wouldn’t make sense to choose a quarterback on a team that I don’t see making the postseason, so that cuts it down to fourteen options. I’m fine counting out Trey Lance, Jalen Hurts, and Mac Jones, because I don’t think they’re very good, and their teams will make the playoffs primarily because of the talent around them. Matt Ryan obviously has an MVP in his career, but he’s well past his prime and won’t put up big numbers on a Colts team that wants to feed the ball to Jonathan Taylor. And while Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins are all capable of moments of high-level play, they’ve never shown the consistency to actually produce MVP results. 

That cuts the list down to seven, but among these seven I could see it going in any direction. Joe Burrow is obviously an emerging star who was playing his best football at the end of last year as he led the Bengals on a deep playoff run, and if Cincinnati can shore up the offensive line in front of him, he can produce a full season at that level. But I expect the Bengals offense to come back to earth some, so he’s probably the least-likely of the real contenders.

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are in similar positions. They’ve both won the award multiple times, and they are both leading teams that should be fighting for the top spot in the NFC. But I worry about Rodgers’s receiving options and Brady’s offensive line, which could lead to hiccups in key moments. And the looming specter of age, plus potential voter exhaustion, leads me to pass them up as well, even though they were the two top options at the end of last year.

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are interesting. They both won this award in breakout second seasons, and both have suffered in comparison to their own greatness ever since. They likely won’t be able to reproduce those incredible seasons, and it may take a year or two for the narratives to catch up and for them to become underrated again, at which point we’ll realize how special they are. Mahomes may have some difficulties this year on an offense that seems to be undergoing a shift, so of the two I think Jackson is the more likely to win, even if I still believe Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL.

So for me it comes down to two younger players who have shown themselves to be supremely talented but haven’t yet put it all together to perform at an MVP level. In Los Angeles, I think this is the year the Chargers finally figure it out and make it back to the playoffs on the arm of Justin Herbert. His athleticism and his ability to reshape the field with laserlike throws gives him the potential to truly explode into the sort of statistical season that could see him run away with the award.

I ended up selecting Allen over him for two reasons: I feel more comfortable betting on a player with a longer track record of success, and I like Buffalo’s supporting cast more. The Bills are my pick to finish with the best record in the AFC, and to do so will require them to fully unleash Allen. The past two years have shown him to be a quarterback with one of the highest peaks in the NFL, even if he still had occasional stumbles. I think those stumbles go away this year as he fires the ball all over the field to Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, and produces extra value on the ground to put him over the top as the most valuable player in the league.

 

Super Bowl Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs 34 – Green Bay Packers 27

I think that Green Bay has been the best team in the NFC the past two years, only to fall flat on their faces when the postseason comes around. It’s worth asking if there’s some real flaw with the team in a playoff environment, but I think the more likely explanation is just bad luck. And even if they do have some underlying issue, the sheer talent they boast this year should be enough to make up for it. Their offensive line will improve with the return of David Bakhtiari, and while they will absolutely miss Davante Adams, they have plenty of time to figure out how to make things work at receiver before the playoffs roll around.

The real difference this year will be their defense. I made a couple references above to them potentially becoming the best in the league, and I don’t think that’s an unlikely outcome. On paper they are the most complete unit in the league, with proven stars as well as young players who can take the next step to make this a truly elite unit. Couple that with an MVP quarterback, and it’s hard not to pick them to emerge from the NFC, where the only real challengers I see are the Rams and the Buccaneers. 

The AFC is a bit tougher. I’ve picked Buffalo to have the best record, but I think all of Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Los Angeles could challenge them at the end of the year. Kansas City is the most interesting case, and the team with the highest upside. There are still reasons for concern about their defense, but they have a knack for figuring things out as the end of the year rolls around. And if their offense is working, they don’t need much from their defense.

The offensive questions I mentioned above will pop up early in the season. They don’t have a reliable receiving option outside of Travis Kelce, and it will take time for their new additions to figure out how to mesh with Mahomes’s unique style. But this unit will figure things out as the year wears on. They have the best quarterback in the league and the best offensive coach in the game. And come January, I’m not sure anyone in the AFC has the defensive fortitude to stop them.

Green Bay might. They can slow the Chiefs down at least, with the coverage on the outside to choke off their receivers and a pass rush that can hassle Mahomes. But they don’t really have anyone to match up with Kelce, and their own offensive line is vulnerable on the interior where Chris Jones does his work. Green Bay definitely has everything they need to win the Super Bowl, but I think they fall short once again.

2022 NFC Preview

Here’s part two of my NFL preview, going through the NFC just as I did for the AFC yesterday.

 

NFC South

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12-5

New Orleans Saints: 8-9
Carolina Panthers: 7-10
Atlanta Falcons: 5-12

What I think will happen:

Tampa Bay is set up to coast to another division title. Even if Tom Brady had elected to stay retired they would still have had the most talented team in this division, and with him it should be no real competition. Of course there is always the lingering specter of his age and the quarterback cliff, but I’m getting tired of saying the same thing every year, so for this season I’ll just assume that Brady will still be the MVP candidate he was a season ago, and the Buccaneers will still compete with the top teams in the NFC, even if they might take a small step back due to some turbulence on the offensive line.

Atlanta is at the other end of things. They have a couple of exciting young pieces on the offensive side in Kyle Pitts and Drake London, and an emerging star on defense in AJ Terrell. But outside of that, things on this team are very, very grim. Marcus Mariota may provide some stability for their offense, but he’s still a clear step down from what they had a season ago, and as the team around him struggles I assume he’ll be replaced by Desmond Ridder, who showed some flashes of high-level play in the preseason but still will not be in a position to succeed behind a miserable offensive line. But they will need to take a look at him at some point this season, since they will likely be in good position to add a quarterback in next year’s draft if they feel the need.

New Orleans and Carolina are the two teams in the middle, and in similar positions. They have a lot of interesting pieces on their rosters, but until they really come together I’m finding it hard to get excited about either team. The biggest questions for both of them are at quarterback, with Jameis Winston returning from an injury that ended an uninspiring first season as a starter in New Orleans, and Baker Mayfield headed to Carolina to try to salvage a career that looked promising just a season ago.

Team I’m most likely to be wrong about: Carolina Panthers

Of all the teams in the NFL, the Panthers may be the one I see the widest possible set of outcomes for. This team was a disaster as the 2021 season wore on, and a lot of that comes back to coaching, an area which saw only minor changes over the offseason. Matt Rhule’s seeming reticence to commit to Mayfield until a couple weeks before the regular season doesn’t particularly bode well, and if he starts waffling and thrusts Sam Darnold back onto the field, the Panthers could spiral and end up picking near the top of the draft again. 

At the same time, the pieces are in place for this to be a playoff team. They have a ton of young talent on defense, led by Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn. They haven’t played well as a unit yet, and it’s always difficult to predict a defensive breakout based on the roster alone, but the potential is there, especially if supporting players like Derrick Brown and Jeremy Chinn live up to the potential they’ve shown in only flashes at this point.

On the offensive side of the ball the Panthers have a very good group of weapons, particularly if Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy in 2022. The big questions are on the offensive line and at quarterback—two position groups that go hand-in-hand. Mayfield was a good quarterback in Cleveland when he had an elite offensive line in front of him, and a disappointment when that line started to break down. He definitely won’t have an elite line in front of him in Carolina, but if Ikem Ekwonu can provide an immediate positive impact (which I’m skeptical of), he has the talent to create big plays down the field to a very good receiving group.

Player to Watch: Shaq Mason, OG, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I sort of glossed over Tampa Bay’s offensive line concerns above, but they are real and worth coming back to. They have continuity at the two most important positions, the two tackles, with a star on the right side in Tristan Wirfs and a functional starter on the left in Donovan Smith. But at the interior three positions they will be making a complete overhaul, with two young players joined by a proven veteran in Mason.

Tampa Bay was forced to watch Alex Cappa walk in free agency, and then saw Ali Marpet announce a slightly surprising retirement. They thought they had stabilized things somewhat when they resigned center Ryan Jensen, but he suffered a training camp injury that makes it unclear when or if he’ll return this year. That means they are now left starting a second-year player at center and a rookie at left guard. 

Mason was brought in to try to be a piece slotting into a proven unit, and now he’ll be looked to as a leader of the group instead. He was never a star in New England, but he’s been a functional player throughout his career as part of a unit that has consistently outperformed their talent level. He has less margin for error with the inexperience alongside him, but he also has one of the easiest jobs in the league protecting Tom Brady. The Buccaneers are undergoing some changes with their offense this year, but I still think they have too much talent for these to be any more than occasional snags.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: 11-6

Philadelphia Eagles: 10-7
New York Giants: 6-11
Washington Commanders: 6-11

What I think will happen:

Dallas has disappointed for a few years running now, and I am a little more skeptical of them this year than I’ve been in the past. Maybe another year removed from his leg injury will help Dak Prescott get back to the quarterback he was earlier in his career, but it’s hard to justify that faith after he looked like a shell of himself for most of 2021. The talent around him on offense is the worst it has been in several years, and if he’s not operating at top level this unit will struggle to score points.

The thing is, even a limited Prescott is still comfortably the best quarterback in this division. By this point Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz have proven that they do not have what it takes to be more than fill-in starters, and they’re stuck on teams without much else going for them. These two teams have some upside on defense, and the Giants could be a little interesting if the moves they’ve made on the offensive line finally pan out. But I just don’t see how these two will score enough points to get themselves into playoff contention. 

Philadelphia is the more interesting case. Because they have good players all over their roster, and the only thing holding them back is their quarterback. Jalen Hurts is not good, but he’s better than he was in college, and if he takes another step forward in 2022, he could theoretically become the league-average quarterback they need to run this offense. It’s not the kind of progression I’m willing to bet on, and I don’t think anyone in this division is really up to competing for a Super Bowl. But if Dallas slips up, the Eagles are ready to take advantage to claim the division again.

Team I’m most likely to be wrong about: Dallas Cowboys

As I mentioned above, I have real concerns about Prescott and Dallas’s offense. CeeDee Lamb is ready to break out as a superstar, but Michael Gallup was better as a number three receiver than a number two, and they don’t have any other depth in the passing game. The offensive line that was their strength a couple years ago is now just Zack Martin and a bunch of middling talents, and it’s very likely that Prescott spends a lot of this season running for his life with nowhere down the field to throw the football. 

The defense should still be solid, but there are red flags on that side of the ball as well. Micah Parsons is phenomenally talented, and he is going to produce no matter what offenses throw his way to try to slow him down. But the 13 sacks he put up last year are a lot for someone who is just a situational pass rusher, and unless the Cowboys make it a more permanent transition, I could see some of those splash plays disappearing.

Dallas’s defense was utterly dependent on these big plays a year ago, a style that is hard to maintain from season-to-season. Trevon Diggs is the ultimate boom-or-bust defensive back, and a season ago his booms were frequent enough to make up for his busts. He gave up more yards than any other cornerback in the league, but he also produced 11 interceptions. Repeating that level of turnover production would be unprecedented, and if he isn’t able to turn his gambles into takeaways as often this year, the big chunks he gives up may be enough to sink the Cowboys defense.

Player to Watch: James Bradberry, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

Bradberry spent the past two seasons in New York before they released him this offseason for reasons that remain a bit unclear to me. He was probably the best player on the Giants roster, making the Pro Bowl in 2020 and putting together another solid year last year. But somehow the Giants have the least cap space of any team in the NFL, and throwing aside Bradberry was the only way they could at least get close to making the books balance. 

So Bradberry went across the division to Philadelphia, giving the Eagles a very good starting cornerback at a very reasonable cost. This, along with their 2020 trade for Darius Slay, has turned the secondary in Philadelphia from a weakness into a strength, as the front end of their defense has aged and been rebuilt with veteran free agents.

A defense that looked to be on the decline two years ago suddenly has the potential to be one of the best in the league. Even if Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham take further steps back, players like Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, and Javon Hargrave give them enough depth to provide consistent pass rush. And with Bradberry and Slay tracking receivers on the back end, Philadelphia can cause enough havoc on the defensive side to make up for some of their offensive shortfalls.

 

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams: 12-5

San Francisco 49ers: 9-8
Arizona Cardinals: 8-9
Seattle Seahawks: 4-13

What I think will happen:

The Rams are coming off of a Super Bowl title, and they could be forgiven if they coast a little during the regular season. I think they are still probably the most talented team in the NFC, but they will lose a few games they probably shouldn’t, including one or two in a division with a pair of feisty mid-level teams. But they’ll be fine with this, even if it means going on the road once or twice in the postseason. This team is loaded with veteran stars, and they added another by signing Allen Robinson in the offseason. There is no reason they can’t repeat as champions.

The 49ers and Cardinals have both shown signs over the past couple years of being capable of competing with the top teams in the conference, but they haven’t displayed the consistency required to be real contenders. Either or both of them could find it this year, but I have plenty of concerns, largely with the coaching and defense in Arizona and with the quarterback position in San Francisco. They’ll have a shot to make the playoffs, and they have the upside to get hot at the right time and go on a run. But I still feel comfortable penciling the Rams in for an easy division title.

Seattle has no chance to compete in the division. They are the worst team in the NFC, and no upside to do anything more than win six or seven games. I’ve always kind of liked Geno Smith as a quarterback who could fill in on an offense with a good supporting cast, and the talent around him actually isn’t terrible right now, especially if Charles Cross lives up to his potential. But I don’t love their coaching, and they really don’t have anything going on the defensive side of the ball outside of Jordyn Brooks and Jamal Adams. The most likely outcome is that they give up a lot of points and their offense is stressed into situations where it isn’t comfortable, leading to a lot of ugly losses. 

Team I’m most likely to be wrong about: San Francisco 49ers

Of the two teams in the middle I think the 49ers have more upside than the Cardinals, simply because they have one big question instead of a dozen little ones. I worry about Arizona’s bland offensive scheme, Kyler Murray’s inconsistency, Kliff Kingsbury’s baffling decision-making, and a defense that doesn’t seem to be more than a bunch of athletes running around. In San Francisco the single biggest puzzle piece is Trey Lance, and if he breaks out this team could be a lot better than I expect.

To be clear, I don’t think Lance is suddenly going to give them high-level quarterback play. He is insanely raw, with his only experience since high school a single year at a lower level of college football. He’s a smart player with impressive physical tools, and Kyle Shanahan will help him out as much as possible, but inevitably he will be overwhelmed, and will be bitten by the struggles with accuracy he showed in college.

But if I am wrong about him, the 49ers have all the pieces around him to be a real contender. They have a defense with a couple of superstars and several good role players, even if there are still holes in their secondary that will keep them from being a top-tier unit. They don’t need to be top-tier though, because if Lance lives up to his potential, this offense could be borderline unstoppable. They have a solid offensive line and a pair of unique weapons in the passing game in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. And if they have someone reliable to get them the ball, this team has what it takes to push the Rams at the top of the division.

Player to Watch: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals

Simmons was a top-ten selection in 2020 due to his absolutely special athleticism. There simply aren’t many humans alive who are 6-4 and 238 pounds and run a 4.39 forty with a 39 inch vertical. At Clemson this raw ability made him a game-wrecking force, surrounded by a supporting cast that kept him clean to fly everywhere around the field and make thrilling splash plays that showed off raw potential that few players in recent memory could touch.

So far in the NFL, it’s been a different story. There have been moments over his first two years where the talent showed through, times when he exploded into the backfield for a sack or chased down a running back trying to break to the edge. But most of the time he’s spent contained inside the tackle box, struggling to read and play through traffic as teams run the ball straight at him to minimize his speed and range.

Arizona needs to make changes to their scheme to unleash Simmons. They need to find a way to get him in space more often, and to keep blockers from getting into his face. The problem is, their entire defense is basically made of players like Simmons. Budda Baker and Zaven Collins also need to play in space, and they don’t have the blocker-eating presences up front to produce that kind of freedom on the back end.

The raw ability is there for this defense to be an extremely fun and dynamic unit, and Simmons is the ultimate example of that talent. If they can find a way to be cleverer with their scheme, they might be able to surprise some people with what they have on that side of the ball. But right now they feel like just a collection of cool athletes with no coherent plan that leaves them too limited on that side of the ball to be real competitors in the NFC.

 

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: 13-4

Minnesota Vikings: 10-7
Chicago Bears: 6-11
Detroit Lions: 5-12 

What I think will happen:

Green Bay has been the class of this division for the past two years, and they are ready to run things back in 2022. The loss of Davante Adams could throw some roadblocks in the path of their offense, particularly if Aaron Rodgers pushes back against what appears to be a shift towards a more run-heavy approach. But they will get this ironed out, and losing one All Pro player will be partially offset by the return of another, as David Bakhtiari gives them back stability on the offensive line (provided he is actually back at full strength). And their defense should be only better than it was a year ago. Jaire Alexander is a superstar who should be back to full health, Rashan Gary really came on as last year went along, and Darnell Savage and Eric Stokes have both shown flashes of high-level play.

There’s only one team that could give the Packers a real contest in this division, and even if things break perfectly for Minnesota, I think they’re still a rung below Green Bay. They’ve taken steps to retool their defense, adding young players like Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth who should come on as the year progresses as well as veterans like Za’Darius Smith and Harrison Phillips who can contribute immediately. And the offensive side is loaded with talent, and has the potential to explode with a more modern approach. I still think some of the holes on their defense and the general Kirk Cousin-ness will just have them in the running for a Wild Card spot.

Detroit and Chicago are in similar positions of having to pull themselves up from the muck at the bottom of the league, though they are approaching it from different directions. The Bears have a super-talented young quarterback but very little to work with around him, and while that theoretically gives them upside if he takes a leap forward, it also means the entire future of their franchise could go down the toilet if he struggles again. The Lions have less at stake this year, as they try to build simple competence around Jared Goff. There’s been a lot of scorn directed towards Goff the past few years, but he’s perfect for what the Lions are currently trying to achieve. They’ll have to upgrade from him at some point, when they’ve built a roster worthy of better quarterback play. But for now he’s enough to keep things steady and help guide some of their young players through a season that isn’t going anywhere.

Team I’m most likely to be wrong about: Minnesota Vikings

I don’t think the Vikings have much upside beyond what I explained above, but I think they have plenty of downside. This team won only eight games a year ago and then made only surface level changes to their roster, trusting that a turnover in coach and culture would be enough to give them a boost back to the playoffs.

On the defensive side of the ball their expectations are leaning heavily on the return of players who haven’t been particularly reliable over the past couple seasons. Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith are still good players, but they are both in their 30s and have been declining for a year or two. Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith simply haven’t been on the field in recent years, and if they go down again there is very little depth to this pass rush. If the rookies aren’t ready to immediately contribute in the secondary, there is no reason to believe this defense will be any different from what it’s been the past two years.

And on offense, there’s still Kirk Cousins. I’m not sure this preview is enough space for me to properly express my feelings about him, or if there are even words I can find that can capture that complexity. But to put it as simply as possible, he goes as the offense around him goes, and there are reasons to worry there as well. If Adam Thielen starts to show his age, they don’t have great depth at receiver. If Christian Darrisaw doesn’t take the step forward they expect, there are still issues on the offensive line. And if this offense starts to struggle, I could see the Vikings falling back to five or six wins, leaving them in a position where they have to do a real reset once the offseason arrives.

Player to Watch: AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers

The second-round selection of Dillon was almost unanimously mocked when the Packers made it in 2020, and while it still probably wasn’t the best decision Green Bay could have made, through two years Dillon has turned into a quality running back. In particular he’s developed into a decent option out of the backfield, pulling in 34 catches for 313 yards a year ago after barely being used as a receiver in college.

Dillon is still behind Aaron Jones on the depth chart, but they are both going to play major roles in Green Bay’s offense this year. Barring a breakout from rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs, the Packers have very little to work with at the receiver position, which means they are going to have to find other options to make plays with the ball in their hands.

Early reports from preseason and training camp suggest they are going to leave heavily on both their running backs, both as rushers and receivers. They’ve shown formations with Jones and Dillon on the field together, and I’m sure Matt LaFleur has spent the offseason drawing up all sorts of creative ways to get the ball into their hands. It will be a bit of an experiment to see how this works, and how Rodgers reacts to them taking the ball out of his hands more frequently. But if Dillon can become an even bigger threat on their offense than he was a year ago, Green Bay may be able to survive their underwhelming receiver room.