2021 Super Bowl Preview

Well, we actually made it. The strangest season in NFL history is mostly behind us, with 268 games in the books and 30 teams now stuck at home. The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl after sleepwalking their way over most of the AFC, while the addition of Tom Brady boosted Tampa Bay to the top of the NFC.

This is the most fascinating Super Bowl matchup we’ve had in several years. Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, two stacked units of skills players, two aggressive head coaches with just enough puzzling decisions behind them to leave us on the edge of our seats. There are a lot of angles to look at this matchup through, and below I’ve gone into a few of my favorites, before bringing it together with my prediction at the end. 

2007, the Sequel

I’m not sure there is any single game in recent history that has had more of a wide-reaching impact than the Super Bowl that concluded the 2007 season. In the best year of Tom Brady’s career, the Patriots put together the most explosive offense in NFL history on their way to an undefeated regular season. They looked unstoppable, until they crashed into Eli Manning and an underdog Giants team.

Manning gets most of the love, but what really won the game for the Giants was their defense. After averaging 37 points per game during the regular season, the Patriots were held to just 14 in the Super Bowl. New England’s success that year created a blueprint for offenses in the years since, bringing spread concepts from college football to the NFL. And New York’s defensive strategy became the primary tool for attacking this offense. They loaded up with pass rushers, attacked the interior with quicker edge defenders, and prioritized making the quarterback uncomfortable in the pocket over trying to stop the run.

Behind this scheme was Steve Spagnuolo, the Giants defensive coordinator. He parlayed this masterpiece into an ill-fated three years as the head coach of the Rams, and has mostly drifted around the NFL as a defensive assistant since. But prior to last year he was named the defensive coordinator of the Chiefs, and now—thirteen years after that monumental Super Bowl—he once again will have to face Brady with everything on the line.

Naturally with more than a decade elapsed and two different franchises involved, things are a bit different this time around. Tampa Bay’s offense still has many of the spread concepts that the 2007 Patriots introduced, as all modern NFL offenses do, but during their playoff run they have also leaned on a straight ahead—if not always effective—power running attack behind Leonard Fournette. Offenses are smarter now about attacking teams that shift pass rushers to the interior, while modern guards are more used to facing quick defensive ends.

Of course, Kansas City isn’t the 2007 Giants either. Spagnuolo was able to pull off this strategy because the Giants were absolutely loaded with quality pass rushers. Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka gave them one of the deepest pass rushing units in recent memory, talent on the edge that this Kansas City team simply can’t match. Frank Clark is dangerous off the edge, but after him they don’t have much to bring in the form of pure edge rushers.

The other difference, of course, is Chris Jones. The shift towards prioritizing interior pressure also gave rise to the pass rushing defense tackle, and Jones is the best in the NFL among normal human beings (so excluding Aaron Donald). At 6-6 and 310 pounds he has the size to hold up on the interior in the running game, and he brings with it explosion and strength to chew opposing linemen up as a pass rusher. He demands double teams on every passing play, and his dominance will open things up for pressure off the edge.

Spagnuolo beat Brady in 2007 with a consistent four-man rush, but his schematic background is actually far more blitz-heavy, and I expect that he will try to make up for the lack of pass rush depth by bringing extra rushers. Tyrann Mathieu in particular is someone to watch, a wild card who plays just about every position on the defense and seems to make one or two huge plays each game. The Chiefs will find ways to get pressure on Brady, and it’s just a question of how much they have to commit to do so, and whether Brady can take advantage of the opportunities that may open up on the back end.

Containing the Chiefs

These two teams have already faced off once this year, and it’s a fascinating game to look back on. It was during the second half of the season when Kansas City seemed to take their foot off the gas some, though the first quarter of this matchup was a bit of an exception. They exploded out of the gate to an early 17-0 lead, as Tyreek Hill had over 200 yards in the first quarter alone. In the second half though, their offense seemed to hit a wall, as they ended three straight possessions with punts and let the Buccaneers get back to within three points before they were able to run the clock out.

It's difficult to say how much of Kansas City’s offensive struggles in the second half came because they eased up, and how much came from adjustments by the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay spent the first half playing their favored cover-1 scheme, and Hill absolutely torched their cornerbacks who were trapped without much safety help. Tampa Bay has a very good cornerback in Carlton Davis, but his strength is his physicality, and he isn’t built to handle the speed the Chiefs have. He needs safety help in order to have any chance against someone like Hill.

Tampa Bay shifted towards a cover-2 scheme in the second half against the Chiefs, and they made a similar change last week against Green Bay. This also allowed them to play their cornerbacks tighter to the line of scrimmage, which took away a lot of the quick opportunities they surrendered over the second half of the season.

There are two main problems with primarily running cover-2. First, it takes a safety out of the box and makes it easy for the offense to just shift to a running play. Second, it puts more coverage responsibilities on the linebackers. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has always loved to blitz, but running a blitz with two deep safeties is basically just asking offenses to kill you with screens and passes over the middle. Over the second half of the season they ran very little two-deep coverage, instead going heavy on blitzes to try to generate some pressure on the quarterback.

What changed last week against the Packers? Vita Vea. Tampa Bay’s massive nose tackle went down in week five with a fractured ankle, and most people assumed he was just done for the year. Somehow he managed to come back last week against Green Bay, and the difference was significant. His presence allowed them to move a safety out of the box without leaving them vulnerable to the run, and he poses enough of a pass rush threat to open things up for Tampa Bay’s edge rushers to get to the quarterback without needing to bring blitzes.

I expect Tampa Bay to follow a similar approach this week, and it will only be easier if safety Antoine Winfield can return after missing the game against Green Bay. The one lingering concern is still the coverage burden that is placed on their linebackers, especially facing Travis Kelce. Lavonte David remains an underappreciated star, and when he is matched up against Kelce they should be able to contain the middle of the field. But there will be times the responsibility falls on their other linebacker Devin White.

White is a playmaking force who flies all over the field, but like most young linebackers he is still a liability in pass coverage. Teams routinely target him in the passing game, and the Chiefs will do whatever they can to get Kelce or their running backs matched up in space against him. For most of the year the Buccaneers have tried to mitigate his coverage responsibilities by bringing him as a blitzer, but this is harder to do if they keep two safeties deep. They will very likely find themselves in the same quandary that every team trying to stop the Chiefs faces—whether to let Kelce carve them up over the middle, or to risk Hill destroying them over the top.

The Hunt for Mahomes

One of the crucial deciding factors in Tampa Bay’s NFC Championship win over the Packers was their ability to get pressure on the quarterback. As I mentioned above, the return of Vea played a big role, but it also certainly helped that the Packers were playing without starting left tackle David Bakhtiari. Injuries had left Green Bay with a glaring weakness on the offensive line, and the combination of Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul was able to exploit it.

And it just so happens that the Chiefs are even more decimated along the offensive line. It started before the season when starting guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff decided to opt out of playing. His replacement, Kelechi Osemele, looked excellent until he went down with a season-ending injury in week five. They then lost All Pro right tackle Mitchell Schwartz to a back injury that has kept him out since October. And, if that wasn’t bad enough, starting left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a torn Achilles in the AFC Championship Game.

Barrett and Pierre-Paul have to be looking at this line and absolutely drooling. Mike Remmers played well filling in as a right tackle for Schwartz, but it looks like they’re planning to shift him to the left side for the Super Bowl so they can bump right guard Andrew Wylie (already their third option at that position) to the outside.This sort of shuffling on the offensive line is often a recipe for disaster. And while Patrick Mahomes might be the hardest quarterback in the league to disrupt with pressure, it’s still the best way to limit any quarterback.

Mahomes will get his. A couple times he will break out of the pocket, scramble towards the sideline, and make some impossible-looking throw back over the middle of the field. You can’t hope to shut down the Chiefs passing game, but you can force it into a couple of mistakes. Mahomes’s adventures in the backfield means he is vulnerable to taking big sacks, losing ten to fifteen yards and stopping the offense in its tracks. In a game with two high-powered offenses, every possession becomes even more critical, and each stumble by the offense becomes a major problem.

Which brings me to the last of my keys to the game.

No Risk It, No Biscuit

Bruce Arians has a reputation for being one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL. The title of this section is a description of his philosophy, and one he uses when designing his passing attack. Arians quarterbacks typically attack down the field, produce a lot of yards and touchdowns, and also throw a lot of interceptions and take a lot of sacks. The Buccaneers managed to put together an elite offensive line to mitigate the sack issue, but Brady still threw the most interceptions he has since 2011, which no one really cared about since he also produced his most passing yards since 2010 and most touchdowns since 2007.

And yet, despite this aggressive philosophy, Arians has a tendency to get strangely passive at times during games. His decision to go for it on fourth and four late in the first half against the Packers was a correct one and a major turning point in the game, but it was also out of character and required him to burn a timeout to make the correct call.

The Buccaneers can also get weirdly bland sometimes with their play calls. They have a deep and versatile group of wide receivers, an elite pass blocking line, and one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the position, and still they insist on running the ball and putting themselves regularly behind on the down and distance. On first downs they run far more often than they should, and they almost always throw away a play on second and long if their first down play goes awry.

Not only does Tampa Bay run the ball a lot, they aren’t particularly good at it. Fournette has been playing out of his mind in the postseason, but it has mostly been on his shoulders, not due to excellent blocking from the line. As good as they are protecting the passer, they regularly struggle to execute their schemes and open holes to the second level.

These passive strategies can work when a team has more talent than their opponents. It’s fine to throw away plays on offense or send the ball back to the other team when you aren’t particularly worried about them marching down the field. That is certainly not the case with Kansas City. Against this offense, you have to take advantage of every single opportunity to score points. Leaving anything on the field is just asking for Mahomes and company to explode to a two or three score advantage.

The Chiefs are currently three-point favorites, and that spread seems far too narrow to me. The Buccaneers need to enter this game thinking of themselves as major underdogs. That means taking risks with high upside. That means trying to score a touchdown every time they have the ball, regardless of the score or situation. That means going putting the game in a situation where a single play or two can swing things wildly in one direction or the other, and hoping luck is on their side.

Prediction

As I mentioned above, I think Kansas City is the clear favorite in this game. The main reasons for this are, ultimately, their edge at quarterback and head coach. I will agree that overall the Buccaneers have a deeper roster. The Chiefs have the best two offensive weapons in Hill and Kelce, but Tampa Bay probably has the next four (Evans, Godwin, Brown, and Gronkowski), while you can say mostly the same at the defensive line, where Kansas City has the dominant Jones and not much else while the Buccaneers boast four above average starters.

This certainly wouldn’t be the first time that Tom Brady won a Super Bowl despite facing a better quarterback—by my count he is 2-3 in Super Bowls where he came in with the clear edge at the position, and 4-0 in all others. But he has always had the coaching edge before, and while Arians is an above average coach, I think Reid is in a tier above him.

I expect this game to get out to a fast start. Both teams will score with their opening possessions, and likely with the possessions after that as well. There won’t be many big plays early on, as the two defenses play a bit loose while feeling out how the offense is going to attack them. They might tighten up in the red zone to allow field goals rather than touchdowns, and this could be an opportunity for Tampa Bay to open up a small lead.

But as we’ve seen before, a lead doesn’t mean much against Kansas City in the playoffs. Their offense is just an unceasing onslaught, and there is no room for error. Tampa Bay will stumble on a couple of drives in the second quarter, and the Chiefs will open up a large halftime lead.

Where it goes from there will be mostly luck. Tampa Bay will come out in the second half trying to play aggressive on defense to get things going again. Bowles will abandon the safe two-deep zone to unleash the blitzes he is always aching to send, and it might even work out to provide a turnover or two to get them back in the game. Or it could provide opportunities for the Chiefs to hit them down the field and turn the game into a true blowout.

Either way, I think the Chiefs still come out on top in the end. It may get messy and interesting in the second half as the Buccaneers take some chances, but I just don’t reasonably see a way for them to keep Kansas City’s offense in check. They are going to need to score pretty much every time they have the ball just to keep up. And I don’t trust this offense to be able to sustain that level of aggression and firepower.

Final Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 41 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24