Meaningless Thrills of Week 17

We’re once again to the final week of the NFL season, and as I do every year, it’s time to talk about the games that don’t matter. There are still 18 teams alive for 14 playoff spots, two divisions up for grabs, and a first-round bye in the NFC to be earned. But that still leaves almost half the league that has to finish their season with nothing on the line. Draft position means something I guess, but the two most valuable picks are locked in place, and there’s even a team like Houston that doesn’t care about draft position because they don’t own their first or second round picks.

But just because these games don’t matter doesn’t mean we shouldn’t enjoy them. After all, there are sixteen games this weekend and only thirteen games after that until the start of next year. Unfortunately, because of the extra playoff spots there are only five truly meaningless games this weekend. But that just means we can spend even more time focusing on what is special about them.

 

New York Jets at New England Patriots

The Red-Hot Jets

Two straight wins after an 0-13 start have the Jets in a very different position than we thought they’d be in the final week of the season. They are officially eliminated from the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes (barring something stupid from the Jaguars on draft night, which we can’t reasonably rule out). And now they’re faced with questions in what was supposed to be a simple offseason. 

First things first, this had better be the last game coached by Adam Gase. There are rumors that team management has been impressed by the way the team came together and won games at the end of a miserable season, and that they are potentially giving credit to Gase for this performance. If they can win this final game against the Patriots, a three game winning streak may make them tempted to bring him back. They absolutely shouldn’t do that. Gase was a disaster in Miami, and he has been somehow even worse in New York. Whatever else they do with the team next year, they need to start fresh at the head coach position (and likely GM too, though it doesn’t seem like that will happen).

It hasn’t escaped notice that these two victories have come with Sam Darnold at quarterback. His numbers in these two games haven’t been great, but he made a handful of special plays that serve as a reminder that he is still extremely talented, and also that he is only 23 years old (younger than Joe Burrow and less than a year older than Kyle Trask, one of the quarterbacks they may look at in the draft). 

The thing is, even when you include these two games Darnold has been statistically the worst quarterback in the league during the 2020 season. More than that, the Jets have a decision to make this offseason with the fifth year option of his contract. If they pick it up, he’ll be under contract for the 2022 season at a guaranteed price of somewhere around $15-20 million (with the new CBA the option is now fully guaranteed, where before it was guaranteed for injuries only). At the level he’s currently played, this is basically a nonstarter. The Jets will not and should not pick up this option.

If the Jets don’t draft a new quarterback, they will likely play the 2021 season with their only option at quarterback a major questionmark entering the last year of his deal. This is basically what the Bears did at the start of this season. I suppose there is a possibility that he takes a major leap forward, but the two most likely scenarios are either that he’s a total disaster and leaves them in the same position next year that they are this year, or that he does some good and some bad and leaves them with a free agent they aren’t sure if they want to keep around, much like Mitchell Trubisky this year. 

The Jets missed out on Lawrence. But they still have the second pick in the draft, and that is an extremely valuable commodity. The Jets are hardly a model of organizational success, and yet the last time they picked this high was in 1996. The last two weeks are evidence of just how hard it is for a team to truly bottom out. Even if Darnold is a total catastrophe again next year, the Jets will still probably win four or five games and finish with a worse selection than they have this season.  This is a strong quarterback class even past the top option, and they need to take advantage of being in a position that 30 other teams in the league would kill for.

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Raheem Morris’s Job Interview

This game technically does have implications for Tampa Bay, as a win would lock up the fifth seed in the NFC, which would allow them to play the winner of the NFC East rather than one of the other divisions. But in the end they’re still going to go on the road for a playoff game a week from now, so I’m going to count this among the meaningless games this Sunday.

The Falcons fired Dan Quinn as their head coach following their fifth straight loss to open the season. They were basically eliminated from the playoffs at that point, and they handed the team over to defensive coordinator Morris to wind the clock on the rest of the year. The team responded by winning four of their next six and briefly entertaining hopes of getting back into the playoff race.

Four consecutive defeats later, the Falcons are headed for a top ten pick. It might be worth noting that three of these games came against playoff opponents, and all four were decided by a single score. But losing tough games late was what the Falcons did under Quinn, so it feels rather empty to keep giving them credit for moral victories. 

Still, there’s a feeling that Morris has a chance to keep this job next year. He interviewed for the position earlier this week, and this game is the second part of that interview. It’s impossible to say what’s going on in the heads of the people making these decisions, but a win certainly wouldn’t hurt his chances of getting the job.

Would it be a good hire? I have no idea. The track record of predicting a head coach’s success is little better than a random number generator at this point. Morris has been a head coach before, for three seasons with the Buccaneers from 2009-2011. These years did not go well, but there is a history of coaches failing in one situation and succeeding in another. He was only 32 years old the first time he was hired, and he’s had some time to mature and grow. It’s possible that this could work out, even if it isn’t the most exciting potential hire.

 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Light Up the Scoreboard

I can’t guarantee a shootout in this one. Relying on Drew Lock for anything is a bad idea. But his incompetence might be outmatched by that of Las Vegas’s defense, a truly special unit when it comes to watching points race up on the scoreboard.

There are a lot of problems with these teams, as evidenced by the fact that they are playing a meaningless game in Week 17. But skill position talent is not an issue. The Raiders have turned Nelson Agholor into a legitimate weapon, while Darren Waller has firmed up his position as the best tight end in the league whose last name doesn’t start with K. Josh Jacobs is fun enough as a running back, and while Henry Ruggs hasn’t lived up to expectations this year, his explosive speed means he’s always one play away from doing something spectacular.

Denver has loaded up on receiving talent as well, though it’s been obscured somewhat by their issues at quarterback. Noah Fant has had a solid second year as a tight end with excellent potential. Tim Patrick has emerged as a quality rotation wide receiver. And Jerry Jeudy is even more wildly unpredictable than expected, alternating breathtaking moves in space with stunning struggles catching the football (he had five drops just last weekend). 

I have no idea what to expect from these offenses in this game. We can hope for a wild shootout, as the Raiders defense gives up even more than they have already while their offense airs it out to keep up. Lock is an issue, but against weak defenses he’s shown the ability to put together surprisingly spectacular performances. If things go right, this game could turn into a race to 40 points.

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Herbert Lighting Fire to the Record Books

Justin Herbert has already set the record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie, and he has an outside shot on a few more records this weekend. He enters the weekend with 4034 passing yards on the season, good for fourth all-time. He will almost certainly get the 18 yards he needs to jump over Jameis Winston and Cam Newton for second. The bigger question will be whether he gets the 341 he needs to eclipse Andrew Luck’s 2012 campaign. And while that certainly seems like a lot, it’s a number he’s hit on two occasions this year and come close to on a couple other occasions.

The other thing to keep an eye on is the pass attempts number. Because despite not playing the first game of the season, Herbert is fifth in the league in passing attempts, and two of the players above him will not play this weekend (including the opponent in this game). With 564 pass attempts this year, he needs 12 more to pass Peyton Manning’s rookie year, 27 to pass Sam Bradford, 36 to pass Derek Carr, 44 to pass Wentz, and an unlikely 64 to pass Luck. Whatever the case, it’s clear that he has thrown the ball a lot this year. 

Herbert has certainly had a strong rookie year. But some of his position on the leaderboards comes from a year that is historically great for passing and a lot of pass attempts even for this era. When you look at his statistics on a per-pass basis, he’s about average for an NFL quarterback in 2020. And while that’s certainly good for a rookie quarterback, it raises some interesting questions in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, which will likely come down to Herbert and another rookie looking to put up stats in a meaningless game.

 

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Justin Jefferson’s Closing Argument

The league MVP award pretty much always goes to a quarterback these days. With a word like “valuable” in the name, it’s hard to argue any other position can match the value of a top quarterback. It’s a little different for the Rookie of the Year award, where there is no similar concept of value and where the levels achieved by the best rookie quarterback and the best rookie at other positions are often very different relative to their peers.

Herbert has been an average quarterback in the league this year. Jefferson has been a Pro Bowl wide receiver. Balancing the two will be tricky when it comes to voting on this award, and I really have no idea which way it will go. 

Like Herbert, Jefferson has a chance to break some rookie yardage records on Sunday. With 1267 yards so far, he needs 39 to pass Odell Beckham’s rookie season, 47 to pass Randy Moss, and 111 to pass Anquan Boldin—a number he’s hit four times.

And unlike Herbert, this can’t be easily dismissed as a pure volume accumulation. The Vikings are one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL this year, With 476 pass attempts on the season, they are unlikely to reach the 533 or 534 numbers from Moss’s or Boldin’s teams. They certainly aren’t going to get to the 607 from Beckham’s rookie year, though that’s a bit misleading as only 468 came in games that Beckham played (and one of these was thrown by Beckham himself).

Jefferson looks even better when you look at stats like yards per route run, where he is near the very top of the league. He’s putting together one of the best rookie seasons of all time, and if he can cap it off with another strong performance he can cement himself at the top of the historic leaderboard.