The Rocky Rookies

 

We’ve reached the point in the NFL season when the year’s award races start to shape up. Every award is going to be fascinating to watch, as there isn’t a clear front-runner in any category (barring potentially Patrick Mahomes for MVP, who avoids being the clear favorite only because people are somehow tired of him winning after only one award).

One of the most exciting races is for Offensive Rookie of the Year. This category seems overwhelmed with quality choices. Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow were battling for the best rookie quarterback before Burrow’s season came to an unfortunate end a week ago. CeeDee Lamb and Tee Higgins have been consistent playmakers for their offense, and Chase Claypool is scoring touchdowns at an insane rate. And Justin Jefferson has been the best of all the rookie wide receivers, currently top ten in the league in receiving yards despite barely playing the first two weeks. If offensive linemen received any consideration for this award, both Tristan Wirfs and Jedrick Wills would have strong cases as cornerstone pieces on offensive lines that have made massive forward leaps for playoff teams.

We have a wealth of talented offensive rookies showing out early in their careers. On the defensive side of the ball we have, well, the opposite situation. This is the weakest defensive rookie class I can recall, and right now I’m having trouble picking a favorite for the award because, frankly, I don’t think any player has put together a season worthy of it.

Defensive Rookie of the Year is always a tricky award to predict, because there are no super clear patterns to look at. In the past ten years the award has been won by three edge rushers, three defensive tackles, two linebackers, and two cornerbacks. The only position that doesn’t seem to win is safety. A safety has only won the award twice in its 53 year history, and not since Mark Carrier in 1990.

Draft position seems to play some role. Four times in the past ten years it was won by the highest drafted defensive player—Ndamukong Suh, Von Miller, Joey Bosa, and Nick Bosa—and on four other occasions it went to a player taken in the top half of the first round. Two years ago it was won by a second round pick in Darius Leonard, and that’s about as much of an outlier as you will see.

The problem is, the first round of this year’s draft has not produced much on the defensive side of the ball. First of all, there were only 14 defensive players selected in this year’s first round, limiting the options somewhat. And only 5 of those players are currently on teams with a winning record which, though I don’t think it should, certainly matters.

The options are limited, and many of these players have struggled transitioning to the NFL, particularly the cornerbacks. Jeff Okudah, CJ Henderson, and Damon Arnette have varied between inconsistent and outright terrible. AJ Terrell, Jeff Gladney, and Noah Igbinoghene have been a little better, but that still just gets them to “below average”. Many of the receivers I listed above have thrived by feasting on cornerbacks who were playing at the same level as them just a year ago.

Some of the players have looked good but have struggled to find playing time. Javon Kinlaw is part of a deep defensive line rotation in San Francisco, and while his flashes have been good, he hasn’t had as many opportunities as he should. Isaiah Simmons had a few brutal plays early in the season, causing him to spend most of the season watching from the sideline until recently. Jordyn Brooks has played about a quarter of the possible snaps in Seattle, and K’Lavon Chaisson has played about half in Jacksonville, neither particularly effective when they have been out there.

Even in a normal year Defensive Rookie of the Year is a hard award to hand out. In football—in all sports, really—it’s a lot easier to find statistics to evaluate offensive performance than defensive. We can clearly see that Jefferson has been the best rookie wide receiver, since he has 250 more yards than any other, and yards are typically a fairly good indicator of how much value a receiver has provided. On the defensive side of the ball the main simple stats we look at are tackles, sacks, and interceptions, and even when someone produces big in one of these categories it often can be deceiving.

Not that any rookie is producing at a particularly high level in any of these stats. Typically the easiest statistic to impress with is sacks. Edge rushers are the highest paid player on a defense, and this is a position where true talents can make an immediate impact in the NFL. In the past we’ve seen players like Ndamukong Suh, Von Miller, and Joey Bosa earn this award by putting up double-digit sacks in their first year in the league.

It is highly unlikely anyone will reach that mark this year. Chase Young leads all rookies with 4.5 sacks through 11 games. The only other rookie with more than two is DJ Wonnum in Minnesota, whose sacks have largely come through scheme and hustle rather than consistent pass rushing skill.

Young is a different story. He got off to a hot start with 2.5 through his first two games, but has been hampered by injuries and bad luck as the season has worn on. Though the sacks haven’t been there, he has continued to generate pressure, and I think he’ll pick up a couple more sacks as the season winds down. It likely won’t be enough to get him to double digits, but if Washington remains in contention in the NFC East it could be enough to earn him the award.

Interceptions are another of the major defensive stats to look at, though they are often fickle and not particularly useful when it comes to judging overall ability. They’re also pretty much essential for a cornerback to win the award. Marcus Peters had eight his rookie year, while Marshon Lattimore had five.

No rookie has reached that level so far this year. Jordan Fuller leads all rookies with three, and he certainly deserves to be in the conversation for the award. The fact that two of these interceptions came on Monday Night Football against Tom Brady certainly helps, potentially making up for the fact that he would be pretty much unprecedented winning the award, as both a safety and a sixth round selection.

Only four other rookies have more than a single interception. One of these is Trevon Diggs, who got a lot of buzz earlier this year when he intercepted Carson Wentz twice on Sunday Night football, back before we realized just how broken Wentz is. It’s led to some people overvaluing Diggs. He’s made a handful of nice plays this year, and has outplayed most of the cornerbacks taken ahead of him in the draft. But on an average play he is a liability in coverage more often than he’s an asset. Along with Jaylon Johnson of the Bears, these two second-round cornerbacks have made just enough plays to show flashes of promise, while also being regularly targeted and burned by opposing teams to remind everyone they are still rookies.

This brings me to the third statistical category, which is tackles. First of all, I want to be clear: tackles are a pretty much meaningless stat. They exist without context, they are poorly tracked, and they often indicate a player who is specifically targeted by opposing offenses who are happy to let him make a tackle after a positive gain. But as much as I hate tackles as a stat, when looking at who could win this award it’s hard to ignore the value some people place on them.

The top rookies in tackles are a pair of similar players. Patrick Queen and Jeremy Chinn are phenomenal athletes who patrol the middle of the field, make plays from sideline to sideline, and do enough to convince casual watchers that they are budding stars on the defensive side. Both are among the favorites to take home this award. And both have been thoroughly mediocre most of the year.

I’ll start with Queen, since he’s the clearer case. In the middle of Baltimore’s defense, he’s been shielded by a strong defensive line and an elite secondary to allow him to make plays. But this also leaves him vulnerable to opposing offenses, who will gladly pick on him when they can engineer a matchup in their favor. He’s a special athlete, and he covers a lot of ground once he starts moving, but he doesn’t always move in the right direction. He has a tendency to skirt around blockers and make tackles five or six yards downfield rather than firing into a lane and stuffing the running back at the line. He’s been a liability in pass coverage as well, where many of his tackles have come wrapping up running backs and tight ends after allowing a reception.

To some extent, Chinn is a similar story. A safety/linebacker hybrid, he’s still figuring out a lot about playing in an NFL defense. Teams regularly attack him in coverage, and he spends a lot of time running around trying to figure out where the ball is going. When he does know what’s happening though, he fires downhill and makes some spectacular plays.

The playmaking aspect of this is intriguing. In a normal year I would tend to favor players who provide consistent value, but without such a player available, someone who makes splashes like Chinn is hard to look away from. He scored touchdowns on consecutive plays against Minnesota this past weekend, and he seems to be getting a better handle on things with each passing week. Carolina’s defense is still bad, but it has improved as the year has gone along thanks in large part to rookies like Chinn and defensive tackle Derrick Brown.

The ability to make splash plays gives Chinn a chance at this award, and he’s not the only one. The splashiest defender in this year’s draft was Isaiah Simmons, who went to the Cardinals with the eighth selection. He’s an elite athlete without a clear position, and for the first half of the season he was stuck on the sidelines as he tried to figure out how to fit into an NFL defense. But over the past few weeks he has found a role as an attacking linebacker, making regular plays both in coverage and rushing the passer. He’s barely played this year, and it’s hard to put him over players who have actually been contributors on the field in the majority of their teams’ games. But with a few more big plays as the Cardinals fight for a playoff spot, Simmons could make a late push for the award.

It’s hard not to pay attention to these big moments on the defensive side of the ball. Sacks and turnovers play a critical role in the outcomes of many games, and players who can stack up big numbers in these categories are certainly doing something right. It’s harder to identify players who excel simply by filling a role, which is why safeties so rarely win this award. The key to excelling at safety is versatility, and versatile players rarely put up big numbers in any one category, instead sprinkling contributions around in a way that provides much more value to their defenses.

There are two more names I want to bring up. A pair of second round safeties who have moved into starting roles, on excellent defenses for teams that are in the thick of the playoff race. Both Antoine Winfield for the Buccaneers and Julian Blackmon for the Colts arrived and instantly took crucial roles as one piece on talented veteran defenses. Neither has put up big stats, and both have been overshadowed at time by teammates. But neither of these defenses would be complete without these players on the back end.

If I had to pick someone today, I would probably choose between Young, Fuller, Chinn, and Blackmon, with a slight edge towards Blackmon. I may be putting too much weight on team success, but his effectiveness as both a run defender and a coverage man has played a crucial role in elevating a Colts defense that has them on the verge of the playoffs. I don’t think he will win the award—if it was handed out now, my money would be on Chinn, and by the end of the season I think it will be Young—but Blackmon is the most deserving in this year’s weak field.