The Rebuilding Carousel

We’re nearing the end of another NFL regular season. For some teams this means getting ready for a playoff run. For others this means looking back on 2020, trying to figure out what went wrong, and then cobbling together a plan to cover up these issues in 2021. And, for a large number of teams, this could mean blowing things up and starting from scratch.

There are a lot of different philosophies for building an NFL team, but it wouldn’t be a dramatic oversimplification to say that it often comes down to the head coach and the quarterback. If you nail those two positions, you can be set for the next decade. If you screw them up, it often doesn’t matter what you do with the rest of the roster. You can load a team full of All Pro talent, but without a quality coach and quarterback you’re likely looking at just a brief playoff appearance.

This offseason feels like a particularly interesting one. First of all, this looks like a strong quarterback class in the draft, with potentially as many as six first round picks on the board. And second, there are some very interesting coaching vacancies that are bound to open up that will be extra attractive for top coaching candidates.

That last part is an interesting dynamic. It’s unclear how much control coaching candidates have over where they land, and how much is just a very limited selection of teams picking from a saturated market. But if a coaching candidate does have the flexibility to pass up lesser quality jobs, this year could be rough for several of those lower tier teams. Opportunities like the Texans, Jaguars, Chargers, and Jets are rare opportunities for a coach to sign on to teams with clear quarterback plans and either established talent in place or plenty of flexibility to build out their rosters.

This leaves a difficult puzzle for some of the teams potentially looking to make changes this offseason. On the one hand, this year may be as good as they can get for replacing their quarterback. On the other hand, it could be the worst year for trying to find a new coach. When you make these decisions, you need them to be in sync, otherwise you risk ending up like Washington, where Dwayne Haskins was ignored one year by a lame duck coach trying to win to keep his job and then shunted aside the next year by a coach with no investment in him.

Below I’ve gone through each team in position to change coaches this offseason. Some are set at quarterback. Others have open questions at that position. And others will almost certainly be searching this offseason. The decisions they make this offseason will shape the courses of these teams, and the entire league, for years to come.

 

Tier 1: On the Market

Three teams have already fired their head coach. One of the three is one of the attractive jobs I listed above, with a franchise quarterback locked down for years to come. The other two are in a very different position, and they will have tough choices to make this offseason.

Houston Texans

The Texans are in an odd position. On the one hand, they have the best quarterback situation of any team with a coach opening. The top candidates have to be salivating at the prospect of partnering with Deshaun Watson. On the other hand, their organization looks like it may be toxic from the top-down, and they will be without first or second round draft selections this year. I’m not really sure what the path forward is for trying to build a Super Bowl caliber supporting cast here. But with Watson locked up long-term, I think a quality coach should be able to make them competitive again in a couple of years.

Detroit Lions and Altanta Falcons

I’m lumping these two together because they’re basically in the same situation. Atlanta has a bit more talent overall to work with, but that talent hasn’t translated to wins for several years now. And both are stuck with aging quarterbacks on long-term contracts who have been trending down for a couple years. Matt Ryan is more concerning than Matthew Stafford, as he is three years older and has looked more lost in recent performances.

Both of these teams could go for a quarterback this year, but I’m not sure if that’s the best approach. The Lions might be able to trade Stafford for something this offseason, but the Falcons are likely stuck with Ryan for at least another year. And where they will wind up in the draft, they will likely have to settle for one of the lower-tier first round quarterbacks like Kyle Trask or Mac Jones. If they fall in love with one of these players, then it might be worth taking a shot. But they may be in a position where they should wait a year and try to bottom out in the hope of getting a top selection, like the Bengals did in their first year under Zac Taylor.

 

Tier 2: As Good as Open

These teams haven’t fired their coaches yet. But it would be a shock if they retained their current options. For the most part they’re set up well going forward, and should have no qualms about making the change.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is quietly in a pretty good position right now. With two more losses they will claim the prize in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, giving them as sure a thing as you will get drafting a quarterback. This offense has the pieces of a solid line, a pair of talented young receivers in DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault, and plenty of draft capital and cap space to work with. I have some concerns about the overall organization, but the Jaguars still have the potential to take a major leap forward next year, and possibly push for the playoffs as early as 2022

New York Jets

The Jets are in the middle of one of the worst seasons in NFL history, but that likely won’t be enough to scare off potential coaches. They have a pair of impressive rookies on the offensive side in Mekhi Becton and Denzel Mims, and they have an emerging star on defense in Quinnen Williams. They have two first round picks this year, and while it has to hurt to miss out on Trevor Lawrence, they are still in position to get the best of the other quarterbacks in the class, likely Justin Fields. This seems like the perfect situation for Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. After developing Josh Allen, he would be my choice to work with Fields, another special athlete who has some polishing to do to live up to his potential.

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert has hit some rough patches over the past few weeks, but he still has the look of a long-term solution at quarterback. Whoever signs on for the Chargers will have to be committed to him 100 percent, which likely means a system that plays to his strengths as a down the field passer rather than the quick-hitting scheme he used at Oregon. Sticking in-division with Eric Bienemy would be a good option. The Chargers are much more talented than their record indicates, and with some better coaching and better luck I expect them to be playoff contenders next year.

 

Tier 3: On the Fence

In a normal year it might make sense for these teams to throw their coaches overboard. But this is not a normal year, and they may want to consider holding out in the hopes that they will be in a better position a year from now, even if this means a lost 2021 season.

Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos

These teams are in a tough situation. They have no clear plan at quarterback beyond this year, but they likely won’t be in position to grab one of the top quarterback options. Neither of their coaches have been particularly impressive, but they haven’t exactly been terrible either. That said, I don’t think they’re around for the long haul. Even if they bring these coaches back, these teams will be bad next year, and they will likely make the coaching change then.

There are some tricky calculations involved with this. If they retain their coaches and draft a quarterback, they’re likely heading into 2022 with a new coach saddled with a quarterback he didn’t scout and select. If the quarterback has a strong rookie season like Herbert has, that would make them a more attractive destination for potential coaches. If not, they could wind up in a spinning-their-wheels scenario like Washington is now.

I think the best approach may actually be to totally toss the 2021 season on the scrap heap. Keep the coaches around, but don’t invest heavily in the quarterback position. Hope they do a better job bottoming out next year than they did this year, and see if they can grab someone at the top of the 2022 draft class. I think this makes more sense for Chicago than Denver, since they will have a weaker draft selection this year and have farther to go in terms of building an offense. But for both teams I think the smart approach would be to enter 2022 with a rookie coach and rookie quarterback joined at the hip.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have repeatedly said they aren’t going to jettison Mike McCarthy after one season, but it’s hard to know how much faith to put in their word. He certainly hasn’t been good this year, even before the injury to Dak Prescott. That injury has thrown a wrench into a team that was already in a messy situation at quarterback. They seemed reluctant to give a long-term deal to Prescott, even though he had earned it before the injury. Now they have an even tougher puzzle to work out. Should they try to use the injury to get a discount on the long-term contract? Should they franchise him again at an astronomical one-year price? Or should they take advantage of this down year to try to grab someone like Zach Wilson in the draft? I personally don’t think they can let someone proven like Prescott just walk out the door, but it’s hard not to be intrigued by the prospect of someone six years younger and $100 million cheaper.

Philadelphia Eagles

The quarterback situation in Philadelphia is a mess. They can’t get rid of Carson Wentz, and even after a promising first start I’m skeptical that Jalen Hurts will be any sort of answer. They have a ton of money invested in that position, and no real option to make any changes. If I was a coaching candidate with other options, I wouldn’t come anywhere near this mess. There are reports that the Eagles may be parting ways with Doug Pederson, but I think they should let him have another year to try to fix this, rather than going out onto the market in the hopes of finding someone willing to take on the project of revitalizing this toxic waste dump of a situation.

 

Tier 4: Wild Cards

I don’t think any of these teams will fire their coaches. I don’t think any of these teams should fire their coaches. But if things get out of hand, they could find themselves in a very bad position this offseason.

Cincinnati Bengals

I would be shocked if the Bengals fired Zac Taylor after only two seasons, especially since his second year was cut short by Joe Burrow’s injury. At the same time, I’m not sure Taylor has shown anything through his first two years to suggest he’s actually a good coach. I’m not sure he’s shown anything at all.

This is the problem with hiring a new coach too early in the rebuild process, and a reason I think several of the teams listed above should retain their coaches. When the Bengals hired Taylor before the 2019 season, they were a team clearly going nowhere. They weren’t an attractive job, and they ended up grabbing someone with no real qualifications besides two years working with Sean McVay. He entered a team on a downward slope, his first season was basically a total writeoff, and two years into his coaching tenure we still have no idea if he’s actually a good coach. Maybe the Bengals are trending up heading into 2021, but I can’t help but think they would have been better positioned if they had hired a new coach a year ago, when they had the top draft selection locked up and a clearer slate for potential coaches to work with.

Minnesota Vikings

There was a lot of talk early in the year about the Vikings potentially making a coaching change this offseason. A streak of wins that got them back into contention has mostly quieted that, even if they are unlikely to actually make the postseason. I don’t think they will change coach or quarterback, and I don’t think they should. Kirk Cousins has performed better as the season has gone along, and Mike Zimmer, for his flaws, is still an above average coach. I don’t think this combination will be competing for a Super Bowl anytime soon, but with the draft position they’ll be in, I don’t think this team is in position to blow things up either. This will likely mean another frustrating season or two for Vikings fans, but I don’t think there’s any real way around that.

The Rocky Rookies

 

We’ve reached the point in the NFL season when the year’s award races start to shape up. Every award is going to be fascinating to watch, as there isn’t a clear front-runner in any category (barring potentially Patrick Mahomes for MVP, who avoids being the clear favorite only because people are somehow tired of him winning after only one award).

One of the most exciting races is for Offensive Rookie of the Year. This category seems overwhelmed with quality choices. Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow were battling for the best rookie quarterback before Burrow’s season came to an unfortunate end a week ago. CeeDee Lamb and Tee Higgins have been consistent playmakers for their offense, and Chase Claypool is scoring touchdowns at an insane rate. And Justin Jefferson has been the best of all the rookie wide receivers, currently top ten in the league in receiving yards despite barely playing the first two weeks. If offensive linemen received any consideration for this award, both Tristan Wirfs and Jedrick Wills would have strong cases as cornerstone pieces on offensive lines that have made massive forward leaps for playoff teams.

We have a wealth of talented offensive rookies showing out early in their careers. On the defensive side of the ball we have, well, the opposite situation. This is the weakest defensive rookie class I can recall, and right now I’m having trouble picking a favorite for the award because, frankly, I don’t think any player has put together a season worthy of it.

Defensive Rookie of the Year is always a tricky award to predict, because there are no super clear patterns to look at. In the past ten years the award has been won by three edge rushers, three defensive tackles, two linebackers, and two cornerbacks. The only position that doesn’t seem to win is safety. A safety has only won the award twice in its 53 year history, and not since Mark Carrier in 1990.

Draft position seems to play some role. Four times in the past ten years it was won by the highest drafted defensive player—Ndamukong Suh, Von Miller, Joey Bosa, and Nick Bosa—and on four other occasions it went to a player taken in the top half of the first round. Two years ago it was won by a second round pick in Darius Leonard, and that’s about as much of an outlier as you will see.

The problem is, the first round of this year’s draft has not produced much on the defensive side of the ball. First of all, there were only 14 defensive players selected in this year’s first round, limiting the options somewhat. And only 5 of those players are currently on teams with a winning record which, though I don’t think it should, certainly matters.

The options are limited, and many of these players have struggled transitioning to the NFL, particularly the cornerbacks. Jeff Okudah, CJ Henderson, and Damon Arnette have varied between inconsistent and outright terrible. AJ Terrell, Jeff Gladney, and Noah Igbinoghene have been a little better, but that still just gets them to “below average”. Many of the receivers I listed above have thrived by feasting on cornerbacks who were playing at the same level as them just a year ago.

Some of the players have looked good but have struggled to find playing time. Javon Kinlaw is part of a deep defensive line rotation in San Francisco, and while his flashes have been good, he hasn’t had as many opportunities as he should. Isaiah Simmons had a few brutal plays early in the season, causing him to spend most of the season watching from the sideline until recently. Jordyn Brooks has played about a quarter of the possible snaps in Seattle, and K’Lavon Chaisson has played about half in Jacksonville, neither particularly effective when they have been out there.

Even in a normal year Defensive Rookie of the Year is a hard award to hand out. In football—in all sports, really—it’s a lot easier to find statistics to evaluate offensive performance than defensive. We can clearly see that Jefferson has been the best rookie wide receiver, since he has 250 more yards than any other, and yards are typically a fairly good indicator of how much value a receiver has provided. On the defensive side of the ball the main simple stats we look at are tackles, sacks, and interceptions, and even when someone produces big in one of these categories it often can be deceiving.

Not that any rookie is producing at a particularly high level in any of these stats. Typically the easiest statistic to impress with is sacks. Edge rushers are the highest paid player on a defense, and this is a position where true talents can make an immediate impact in the NFL. In the past we’ve seen players like Ndamukong Suh, Von Miller, and Joey Bosa earn this award by putting up double-digit sacks in their first year in the league.

It is highly unlikely anyone will reach that mark this year. Chase Young leads all rookies with 4.5 sacks through 11 games. The only other rookie with more than two is DJ Wonnum in Minnesota, whose sacks have largely come through scheme and hustle rather than consistent pass rushing skill.

Young is a different story. He got off to a hot start with 2.5 through his first two games, but has been hampered by injuries and bad luck as the season has worn on. Though the sacks haven’t been there, he has continued to generate pressure, and I think he’ll pick up a couple more sacks as the season winds down. It likely won’t be enough to get him to double digits, but if Washington remains in contention in the NFC East it could be enough to earn him the award.

Interceptions are another of the major defensive stats to look at, though they are often fickle and not particularly useful when it comes to judging overall ability. They’re also pretty much essential for a cornerback to win the award. Marcus Peters had eight his rookie year, while Marshon Lattimore had five.

No rookie has reached that level so far this year. Jordan Fuller leads all rookies with three, and he certainly deserves to be in the conversation for the award. The fact that two of these interceptions came on Monday Night Football against Tom Brady certainly helps, potentially making up for the fact that he would be pretty much unprecedented winning the award, as both a safety and a sixth round selection.

Only four other rookies have more than a single interception. One of these is Trevon Diggs, who got a lot of buzz earlier this year when he intercepted Carson Wentz twice on Sunday Night football, back before we realized just how broken Wentz is. It’s led to some people overvaluing Diggs. He’s made a handful of nice plays this year, and has outplayed most of the cornerbacks taken ahead of him in the draft. But on an average play he is a liability in coverage more often than he’s an asset. Along with Jaylon Johnson of the Bears, these two second-round cornerbacks have made just enough plays to show flashes of promise, while also being regularly targeted and burned by opposing teams to remind everyone they are still rookies.

This brings me to the third statistical category, which is tackles. First of all, I want to be clear: tackles are a pretty much meaningless stat. They exist without context, they are poorly tracked, and they often indicate a player who is specifically targeted by opposing offenses who are happy to let him make a tackle after a positive gain. But as much as I hate tackles as a stat, when looking at who could win this award it’s hard to ignore the value some people place on them.

The top rookies in tackles are a pair of similar players. Patrick Queen and Jeremy Chinn are phenomenal athletes who patrol the middle of the field, make plays from sideline to sideline, and do enough to convince casual watchers that they are budding stars on the defensive side. Both are among the favorites to take home this award. And both have been thoroughly mediocre most of the year.

I’ll start with Queen, since he’s the clearer case. In the middle of Baltimore’s defense, he’s been shielded by a strong defensive line and an elite secondary to allow him to make plays. But this also leaves him vulnerable to opposing offenses, who will gladly pick on him when they can engineer a matchup in their favor. He’s a special athlete, and he covers a lot of ground once he starts moving, but he doesn’t always move in the right direction. He has a tendency to skirt around blockers and make tackles five or six yards downfield rather than firing into a lane and stuffing the running back at the line. He’s been a liability in pass coverage as well, where many of his tackles have come wrapping up running backs and tight ends after allowing a reception.

To some extent, Chinn is a similar story. A safety/linebacker hybrid, he’s still figuring out a lot about playing in an NFL defense. Teams regularly attack him in coverage, and he spends a lot of time running around trying to figure out where the ball is going. When he does know what’s happening though, he fires downhill and makes some spectacular plays.

The playmaking aspect of this is intriguing. In a normal year I would tend to favor players who provide consistent value, but without such a player available, someone who makes splashes like Chinn is hard to look away from. He scored touchdowns on consecutive plays against Minnesota this past weekend, and he seems to be getting a better handle on things with each passing week. Carolina’s defense is still bad, but it has improved as the year has gone along thanks in large part to rookies like Chinn and defensive tackle Derrick Brown.

The ability to make splash plays gives Chinn a chance at this award, and he’s not the only one. The splashiest defender in this year’s draft was Isaiah Simmons, who went to the Cardinals with the eighth selection. He’s an elite athlete without a clear position, and for the first half of the season he was stuck on the sidelines as he tried to figure out how to fit into an NFL defense. But over the past few weeks he has found a role as an attacking linebacker, making regular plays both in coverage and rushing the passer. He’s barely played this year, and it’s hard to put him over players who have actually been contributors on the field in the majority of their teams’ games. But with a few more big plays as the Cardinals fight for a playoff spot, Simmons could make a late push for the award.

It’s hard not to pay attention to these big moments on the defensive side of the ball. Sacks and turnovers play a critical role in the outcomes of many games, and players who can stack up big numbers in these categories are certainly doing something right. It’s harder to identify players who excel simply by filling a role, which is why safeties so rarely win this award. The key to excelling at safety is versatility, and versatile players rarely put up big numbers in any one category, instead sprinkling contributions around in a way that provides much more value to their defenses.

There are two more names I want to bring up. A pair of second round safeties who have moved into starting roles, on excellent defenses for teams that are in the thick of the playoff race. Both Antoine Winfield for the Buccaneers and Julian Blackmon for the Colts arrived and instantly took crucial roles as one piece on talented veteran defenses. Neither has put up big stats, and both have been overshadowed at time by teammates. But neither of these defenses would be complete without these players on the back end.

If I had to pick someone today, I would probably choose between Young, Fuller, Chinn, and Blackmon, with a slight edge towards Blackmon. I may be putting too much weight on team success, but his effectiveness as both a run defender and a coverage man has played a crucial role in elevating a Colts defense that has them on the verge of the playoffs. I don’t think he will win the award—if it was handed out now, my money would be on Chinn, and by the end of the season I think it will be Young—but Blackmon is the most deserving in this year’s weak field.